COVID-19 Talk

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

This isn’t the flu.

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

[mappy]

thanks for keeping the discussion civil despite disagreements. carry on  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

The IFR of the flu is not 0.2%, and the IFR of this disease, for as well as we know, is well above 0.2%.

The flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

We'll stay locked down until we can effectively mitigate, I wager. I trust public health and the scientists behind it.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

The vast majority of people support staying home for the time being, and it’s currently the law, and science and public health support it.

I know you want to get out. We all do. But it’s not going to happen when there is a disease spreading that kills 2k a day while under lockdown.

 

I am very confident you are going to see public opinion on this swing wildly towards opening in the next two weeks as layoffs accelerate and savings run dry...

[ErinInTheSky]

New Jersey just reported 350 deaths... :-/

 

I have a feeling we're heading for another 2k+ day. Many states haven't reported yet.

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

Of course, that's if we believe the flu number.  For all of the discussion about coding COVID deaths, influenza has the same problem. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I am very confident you are going to see public opinion on this swing wildly towards opening in the next two weeks as layoffs accelerate and savings run dry...

We'll see. Pretty sure people being asked that question are keeping that in mind.

It's not like people will just return to economic activity even if things are opened right now. Pandemics suck. They have sucked since the beginning of time. It's why when you think of "biblical", plagues and pandemics come up.

 

We're going to have to all suffer together for a while to save lives and keep us as a society healthy. We'll rebuild.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

We'll stay locked down until we can effectively mitigate, I wager. I trust public health and the scientists behind it.

That could be 18-24 months away. There is zero chance of that, and you shouldn't hope for it. I haven't heard experts like Fauci calling for that either. You'll much prefer the coronavirus deaths if we run out of food and there are widespread riots with 30%+ unemployment...

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

New Jersey just reported 350 deaths... :-/

 

I have a feeling we're heading for another 2k+ day. Many states haven't reported yet.

It seems clear to me you are spending too much time deep into out-of-context stats and letting them eat away at you. You should read some flu stats for the past 50 years...

[mappy]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

biggest reason: supplies and staff. there are not enough test kits. there are not enough people to give the tests. there are not enough people, or labs, to run the tests. 

its a logistic nightmare that we are ridiculously behind the ball on that trying to play catch up will prove to be impossible

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

[40westwx]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

This is not a good argument for shutting down the entire planet. The common cold frequently kills this population. The flu ravages them every single year. Thousands upon thousands of deaths. I suspect most 80 year olds don't want the earth shut down and people's lives ruined to ensure they get a few more months of life locked in their houses...

@PhineasC you are using way too much logic in your thought process here... we have plenty of data that shows that this virus spreads much like any other seasonal respiratory virus.  The faster it spreads, the faster you achieve immunity in a target population and the disease naturally extinguishes itself.  This is just how things work.. the "flatten the curve" approach actually scares me because we are effectively f-ing with nature.. we are attempting to interfere in areas where we really have no business interfering.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It seems clear to me you are spending too much time deep into out-of-context stats and letting them eat away at you. You should read some flu stats for the past 50 years...

Flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Hospitalization rates are here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

Good to know 80% of the population has endless economic resources and not living paycheck to paycheck like most reports I've seen. When the government tit is dry I have a feeling they will be singing a different tune. Good luck

 

You’re points have some validity but you don’t convince anyone by always saying it in the most abrasive obnoxious way possible. You’re worried the gov ability to assist is invalid though since they literally print the money. They can never run out of it. 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This isn’t the flu.

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That could be 18-24 months away. There is zero chance of that, and you shouldn't hope for it. I haven't heard experts like Fauci calling for that either. You'll much prefer the coronavirus deaths if we run out of food and there are widespread riots with 30%+ unemployment...

I don't believe mitigation is 18-24 months away, unless we seriously mess up the time we've bought... which I suppose is possible.

Once we can have massive mask production + serology tests + contact tracing + effectively bring the numbers down to a point where we can effectively contact trace, we'll probably be able to start to move towards normalcy.

 

True normalcy probably won't be here for 18 months though, that is true.

But I don't think we'll be locked down like we are now for 18 months.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

We can overcome these problems if we decided it was important enough.  And to me, 2,000+ people dying a day while we're all locked in our homes is an important enough reason. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

At no point in a flu season do 2k people die per day. Especially not under lockdown. Do the math on what that would be like with rampant spread, over a long period of time.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

It's probably not even legal to mandate virus testing before people can go to work or leave home. It'll be challenged in court, no matter what.

The South Korean population is heavily concentrated in urban corridors that can be closed off far more easily than our dispersed population. There is also a far greater sense of collectivism in that country. Culturally, they have been practicing social distancing and mask wearing for decades already. They didn't need to learn this like we did. They remember SARS very well.

We are much more like Italy than South Korea, but that's also not a great comparison.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

We can overcome these problems if we decided it was important enough.  And to me, 2,000+ people dying a day while we're all locked in our homes is an important enough reason. 

Agreed. And I think we CAN get enough collective willpower to do it. But we need some real leadership and centralized direction because right now we're being quite a bit haphazzard. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

I wouldn't b so quick to blame our health system. Lombardy has socialized medicine and we saw what happened there. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's probably not even legal to mandate virus testing before people can go to work or leave home. It'll be challenged in court, no matter what.

The South Korean population is heavily concentrated in urban corridors that can be closed off far more easily than our dispersed population. There is also a far greater sense of collectivism in that country. Culturally, they have been practicing social distancing and mask wearing for decades already. They didn't need to learn this like we did. They remember SARS very well.

We are much more like Italy than South Korea, but that's also not a great comparison.

So why can't we adapt and overcome this challenge?  Why do have to give up?  I don't understand this mentality.  Our country has achieved FAR greater things than this.  We sent two armies simultaneously to different sides of the globe to defeat 2 different brutal facist regimes in WW2.  We can figure out how to test and isolate cases of this virus and quickly if we choose to. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

Most of these deaths are from infections that surely predated the lockdown. I am not sure why you are conflating the two. There is not necessarily a causation link there. Death is a lagging indicator.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I wouldn't b so quick to blame our health system. Lombardy has socialized medicine and we saw what happened there. 

I'm more saying, we're not willing to centralize our supply chains and response right now. I'm not talking about socialized medicine per se, which is a more charged political topic. Sorry - not trying to veer off into the other implications of it.

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

So why can't we adapt and overcome this challenge?  Why do have to give up?  I don't understand this mentality.  Our country has achieved FAR greater things than this.  We sent two armies simultaneously to different sides of the globe to defeat 2 different brutal facist regimes in WW2.  We can figure out how to test and isolate cases of this virus and quickly if we choose to. 

No, we should try but it will take another 6 months which some of us think will end up being way worse than the virus.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

I'm more saying, we're not willing to centralize our supply chains and response right now. I'm not talking about socialized medicine per se, which is a more charged political topic. Sorry - not trying to veer off into the other implications of it.

That's right and it's how we are here. That's why we can't test like South Korea or Germany overnight. Our system is not set up for that. Each state will do whatever they want.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

No, we should try but it will take another 6 months which some of us think will end up being way worse than the virus.

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

[mappy]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

lol good luck with that.