COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If you saw no issues with her posts then I am not sure why you saw issues with mine and deleted a couple of mine as well as another's post who was in defense of me. I find it disconcerting that we can have a civil discussion in general over what we saw as far as response and yet we have her jump in out of the blue (in a thread I haven't seen her in to the best of my knowledge) claiming political bias on my part and I need to take it elsewhere. And surprisingly <sarcasm> enough I sure didn't see here go after the others that initiated this discussion.Now why would she go on the attack on me that was responding to others comments and yet leave theirs alone? Maybe  we were seeing political bias on her part? I try my damnedest to keep my opinions as unbiased as possible. So for some to jump in claiming otherwise just because it doesn't fit what they want to hear pisses the hell out of me. 

eta: I didn't post any articles, that was someone else. She just had issues with my opinion.

sounds good. we are moving on from this anyways.

[ErinInTheSky]

47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Everyone comes at this from their own biases.  I will go so far as to say I wouldn't trust any news article or scientific study since it's so early. In fact the only person I would trust it's Dr. Fauci, even though he downplayed the situation. And at 79,  I don't think he gives a rat's arse if his feelings now are not in line with any particular political party. People need to read all articles instead of the ones that are advocated by one party.

In Fauci we trust.

[mappy]

MD 10am update

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

MD 10am update

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

Yeah, Maryland is dramatically undertesting. That's WAY too high a positive rate.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Yeah, Maryland is dramatically undertesting. That's WAY too high a positive rate.

This is why I'm worried about how long it's going to take to get back to normal.   The testing infrastructure for whatever reason just still isn't anywhere close to where it needs to be, and as we all know the most likely path back to normalcy is testing/contact tracing. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

just be careful when doing that math. we know there is a lag on when people get tested and when the results come back. its not accurate based on real-time

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

just be careful when doing that math. we know there is a lag on when people get tested and when the results come back. its not accurate based on real-time

Yeah but still, of the ~2,000 tests they ran yesterday ~700 were positive.  Regardless of when those tests are from that's still a high positive rate. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but still, of the ~2,000 tests they ran yesterday ~700 were positive.  Regardless of when those tests are from that's still a high positive rate. 

but they weren't run yesterday. stop saying that. 

its not an accurate picture of the true spread in the state. its not an accurate picture of the true mortality rate. its the only data we have, but everyone needs to understand there are lags in when results come back. both positive and negative. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Ideal world you want to aim for a 5-7% positive rate, that usually means you're catching all the cases because it means you are testing liberally. South Korea has a 2% positive rate, Canada 6%, Australia 2%, Norway 5%, Thailand 3.5%, Singapore 3.4%, Iceland 5%.

 

All places that are basically testing everyone that even so much as has a chance of having the bug, all places with things fairly under control right now.

[ErinInTheSky]

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

Most likely, yes. 

we will never have a true scope of numbers until its over. until they test people for it afterwards. until then we have to make do with what is published, but there is always a lag in the data. always always always. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

but they weren't run yesterday. stop saying that. 

its not an accurate picture of the true spread in the state. its not an accurate picture of the true mortality rate. its the only data we have, but everyone needs to understand there are lags in when results come back. both positive and negative. 

Just semantics, I’m not arguing, of “the test results received yesterday” there was a very high + rate. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Just semantics, I’m not arguing, of “the test results received yesterday” there was a very high + rate. 

yes, i think thats the proper wording. Of what results were processed and results released, we have a high rate. correct.

sorry.. my scientific brain can only handle so much semantics lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

13 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

Hopefully not wandering around but yeah.

[mappy]

updated JH map

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

There are tabs now to view US data vs World data. 

[mappy]

new county level data

[gymengineer]

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th. 

[jaydreb]

17 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th. 

The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month.  If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close.

Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.   

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month.  If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close.

Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.   

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

[jaydreb]

21 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

Yes I see what you are saying, but it looks like the model hasn’t been updated for several days.  Also, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a model to accurately nail the amount of deaths within a few hundred or even a few thousand.  I think we have to see the final results before we can judge overall, as its possible more people die today than expected and less people die next week, with the end result being more or less the same.

How has it been doing with respect to  hospitalizations?  If it’s way off on that then I think that’s more telling.  Just my $.02.  

[40westwx]

Is "herd immunity" a bad word or something.. I mentioned it to my coworkers and they said I was as bad as an antivaxer.. and now I feel like said something wrong.

[40westwx]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe they thought u said "nerd immunity "

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.  

[ErinInTheSky]

39 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.  

Sweden's economy is tanking regardless. Swedish markets are down 17%, GDP decline forecast is -3.4% compared to the US's -2.8%, nursing homes are getting widespread virus.

There's every indication that Sweden is seeing a restraint from economic activity even with their laxer lockdown. Ridership  on their public transportation is 60% down, air travel is 85% down, events are being canceled, unemployment is rising and will be at 9% soon there. They registered more unemployment claims last week than during the 2008 crisis. It just goes to show that even "opening things up" a bit, people still aren't willing to engage in economic activity during a pandemic.

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0413/Sweden-broke-norms-with-low-scale-lockdown.-Is-it-working?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&cmpid=TW&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586793414

 

"And while most businesses in Sweden are still operating, the economic cost of the pandemic is already being felt. Last week, 25,350 Swedes registered as unemployed, according to the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce – a larger increase than during the 2008 financial crisis."

We're going to be in a global economic downturn no matter what. May as well restrict deaths while we're at it.

[ErinInTheSky]

The point is... I think that people are going to practice social distancing by themselves now regardless of what governments do. We're seeing mass, behavioral change from people which is a good thing - it'll slow down the virus no matter what the heads of states declare.

 

The unfortunate flipside of the coin to that though is that the economy is unlikely to react much to any sort of "opening."

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

My comment was just meant to loosen things up in here ...ease  tension etc . That's all

I no nothing about Sweds'.

I know.. sorry.. it was just me thinking out loud.. I get the joke!  I actually have a really good attitude about all of this all.. can we do a contest on this.. or would that be a little too much?  Maybe a contest on the exit strategy?

[40westwx]

2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Sweden's economy is tanking regardless. Swedish markets are down 17%, GDP decline forecast is -3.4% compared to the US's -2.8%, nursing homes are getting widespread virus.

There's every indication that Sweden is seeing a restraint from economic activity even with their laxer lockdown. Ridership  on their public transportation is 60% down, air travel is 85% down, events are being canceled, unemployment is rising and will be at 9% soon there. They registered more unemployment claims last week than during the 2008 crisis. It just goes to show that even "opening things up" a bit, people still aren't willing to engage in economic activity during a pandemic.

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0413/Sweden-broke-norms-with-low-scale-lockdown.-Is-it-working?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&cmpid=TW&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586793414

 

"And while most businesses in Sweden are still operating, the economic cost of the pandemic is already being felt. Last week, 25,350 Swedes registered as unemployed, according to the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce – a larger increase than during the 2008 financial crisis."

We're going to be in a global economic downturn no matter what. May as well restrict deaths while we're at it.

One of the things about Sweden being the defacto control group is that  we actually have control groups all over the planet.. one of the things that we forget is that there are massive population centers throughout the world where people violate the constructs of social distancing and proper hygiene by merely existing. 

[RDM]

5 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

One of the things about Sweden being the defacto control group is that  we actually have control groups all over the planet.. one of the things that we forget is that there are massive population centers throughout the world where people violate the constructs of social distancing and proper hygiene by merely existing. 

Well said.  I lived in India for 3 years in the early/mid 90's.  Imagine the USA with 3x our population in an area equal to the USA East of the Mississippi - that's India.  Factoring in nearly 25% of India is sparsely populated desert and mountains, and the result is a population density 5X the USA.  The population density in Bangladesh is 2.5X the density in India.  

[showmethesnow]

Now I have really enjoyed engaging others in this thread. It has been by far a very civil discourse among us despite differing views. But after yesterday's incident I have a decision to make as to whether I want to continue participating or not.

As I am sure some are aware, I was attacked by someone that has participated very little, if any, in our discussions since this thread was created several weeks ago. A blind side attack from someone that has a notoriety for doing this over the years. Now I have no issues with someone inserting themselves into a civil discussion between myself and others. I actually welcome it. In fact I can also handle someone blindsiding me in a civil discussion with others. Screaming that I am a partisan hack and I need to take it elsewhere just because they don't like my opinion (ironically enough her own actions called her out for what she was accusing me of). I have engaged with enough trolls in the troll wars on political boards that this isn't an issue. But.... what I can't handle is having selective censorship on these exchanges. Leaving the attacks standing while my own posts in defense of myself (as well as others in defense of me) are selectively deleted. It is hard enough trying to defend my opinions when 90% of the board is arguing vehemently against them, opinions I might add that are formulated by much time and research on my part as to give the most unbiased opinion that I can. So to have the added handicap of seeing my posts in defense of my positions silently disappear is just too much. Now I understand being a moderator can be extremely difficult. Quite often you are thrown into the middle of things and you have no idea what has been going on. So I can accept the fact sometimes mistakes occur. But at some point, when you see moderation constantly favoring one position as I have seen several times in the last couple of weeks,  you have to seriously consider that there isn't an even handed approach being meted out. At that point, you have to ask yourself if it is even worth it. That is where I stand now with a decision to make. Just in case I decide to forego any further discussion I would like to thank many of you that made this a very enjoyable time for me. We are going through a rough time in this country and to have this venue to take my mind off things was a God send. 

[H2O]

oh come on