COVID-19 Talk

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

What study shows 8x? I haven’t seen anything reputable. I’ve seen musings but I’ve seen musings about all kinds of numbers. Until we get some pretty intense testing I find that highly unlikely. No study with any modicum of validation has verified that in the least as far as I have read and I’ve read several.

Study out of Germany that I posted a couple of days ago. Not that I particularly am believing it but the fact of the matter is we are seeing more and more coming out of the possibilities of a larger spread.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Really not sure we can use Iceland as an example in this regard. The differences in numbers involved are of many magnitudes greater here. Much easier to control a virus through mediation when you are dealing with such small numbers.

That said, I could very well be wrong as far as my thoughts on total spread. Will not deny that. I had my questions as far as the impacts of Social Distancing and I error-ed on the low side for various reasons when I crunched the numbers about a month ago. But I do believe the numbers they are projecting now are off the mark by a good bit (below 2% infection rate last I saw?). So though we may not see the 15% (which I favored over the 20%) I do believe we will approach 8-10% minimum.

10% would be 30 million infected. Best case of 0.5% death rate means that we will know we are there when we hit 150k dead.

 

I think right now we are looking at 60k dead so we are probably heading Realistically, best case, at 12 million infected (if you believe the best case 0.5% death rate). That would be about 4% infected in wave 1.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yup. That would be terrifying and is one of the things we don’t know about the long term effects of the virus.

 

This is why I’ve been practicing hardcore disinfection procedures in my home.

It certainly isnt out of the realm of possibility. I remember back in the 80s shows like 20/20 etc saying how the steps to slow AIDS at the time were fairly simple...safe sex, dont share needles etc. I specifically remember them saying "could you imagine a virus of this nature being spread like the flu?".  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

It certainly isnt out of the realm of possibility. I remember back in the 80s shows like 20/20 etc saying how the steps to slow AIDS at the time were fairly simple...safe sex, dont share needles etc. I specifically remember them saying "could you imagine a virus of this nature being spread like the flu?".  

It would be far from the only virus that has a tendency to remain latent.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, supernovasky said:

It would be far from the only virus that has a tendency to remain latent.

Correct. But irt mortality and symptoms?

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Correct. But irt mortality and symptoms?

Yeah. It’s nasty lol. I’m staying away from it.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

10% would be 30 million infected. Best case of 0.5% death rate means that we will know we are there when we hit 150k dead.

 

I think right now we are looking at 60k dead so we are probably heading Realistically, best case, at 12 million infected (if you believe the best case 0.5% death rate). That would be about 4% infected in wave 1.

Actually have been stating a .75-1.25 mortality rate for some time now. What I didn't mention because I thought I would be laughed off these boards was the fact that when I took a little different approach to calculate these numbers I was actually coming in with under .2%.  And honestly I didn't particularly believe this after hearing 15+% rates in Europe. Just figured my logic was faulty or I was just screwing up the math.

[ErinInTheSky]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Study out of Germany that I posted a couple of days ago. Not that I particularly am believing it but the fact of the matter is we are seeing more and more coming out of the possibilities of a larger spread.

It’s an interesting study. It’s probably not representative of the country or even of Germany in the least. But it’s an interesting study that does support more widespread transmission. That said even in their study they found a 0.44% death rate so you could extrapolate to sort of figure out where we are at in the US. In the US we are at 22k deaths which would mean 5 million are infected or have been infected in the US.

 

edit: that said their sample is still quite young (both demographically and the sample itself hasn’t been studied long) and there’s lots of time for that death rate to go up. Keep in mind German death rates exclude senior homes and such.

[SnowLover22]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

More and more scientist studies reporting online and various news sources such as reuters and usa today that they are starting to get data that supports once you get covid19 it never leaves.  Few reports now of triple infections in S Korea! I've seen comparisons to a herpes or aids type virus where it stays in the system but goes dormant at times even so as much to provide a negative test result. They are learning more and more about this every day. 

Scary part is, it will continue to beat down the immune system and lungs. Reports are showing lung scarring on those who have 'recovered'. If these reports are true, this isnt good. Imagine aids being spread via respiratory droplets?

God I hope this is wrong. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, supernovasky said:

It’s an interesting study. It’s probably not representative of the country or even of Germany in the least. But it’s an interesting study that does support more widespread transmission. That said even in their study they found a 0.44% death rate so you could extrapolate to sort of figure out where we are at in the US. In the US we are at 22k deaths which would mean 5 million are infected or have been infected in the US.

Yeah, not going to go back and check but I do think they were saying roughly 4% of the population at this time. Now whether it is legit I guess we will see. I am not really one to buy in whole hog on just one study but prefer to look at many. But it does fit neatly into my ideas so I guess I will hug it. 

[showmethesnow]

36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

To be clear I have zero clue how to get out of this or when to start back up. My thoughts are my own opinions and I simply believe the ball was dropped hard and the hard decisions that need to be made now are in suspect hands

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion. But I have been working on a time line this last week or so on everything that occurred through this pandemic. There is much to fill in and it will take quite a bit of time to finish it. But at this time from what I have seen so far there wasn't anything close to a gross mismanagement of the response to this pandemic. Now would I have done things a little different here and there? Yes, but that is a matter of opinion. And could they have maybe reacted a day or two sooner? Yeah maybe that too. But nothing at this point suggests any gross negligence on this administrations part. 

Now as I continue to research maybe my conclusions will change. But the problem I am seeing is there wasn't what I would consider clear cut actionable intelligence. The message was getting polluted with misinformation from the CCP and WHO. This harmed everyone. It is hard to just decide to shut down the country on just a piece of information here and there especially when the over riding message is one of clear sailing ahead. And you also have to consider that the intelligence quite often has to find its way up the food chain to get to the ears that need to hear it. This takes time. But again, I will be looking further into it when I have a more detailed timeline.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

you need to link to these studies, please. your characterization of them is probably incorrect.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21V0JQ

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/health/covid-19-relapse-three-theories-can-explain-worrying-trend-70364

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid-19-relapse-of-infection-a-new-concern-11585562173819.html

There are many more. There are some interesting ones circulating from the scientific communities abroad. I will post more after work.

 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion. But I have been working on a time line this last week or so on everything that occurred through this pandemic. There is much to fill in and it will take quite a bit of time to finish it. But at this time from what I have seen so far there wasn't anything close to a gross mismanagement of the response to this pandemic. Now would I have done things a little different here and there? Yes, but that is a matter of opinion. And could they have maybe reacted a day or two sooner? Yeah maybe that too. But nothing at this point suggests any gross negligence on this administrations part. 

Now as I continue to research maybe my conclusions will change. But the problem I am seeing is there wasn't what I would consider clear cut actionable intelligence. The message was getting polluted with misinformation from the CCP and WHO. This harmed everyone. It is hard to just decide to shut down the country on just a piece of information here and there especially when the over riding message is one of clear sailing ahead. And you also have to consider that the intelligence quite often has to find its way up the food chain to get to the ears that need to hear it. This takes time. But again, I will be looking further into it when I have a more detailed timeline.

Define gross mismanagement? I'm not sure you and I are tracking on this one but it's ok neither one of us is going to fix or solve the problem. Hopefully we are lead out of this with solid direction and care. Off to sell more milk....I'm profoundly thankful to still be employed and insured during this time. I thank my lucky stars every minute of every day. Peace all

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

yesterday Dr. Fauci said a decision to close down earlier would have saved lies. your timeline is completely irrelevant to a factual discussion.

Yes it would have. No question about it. So what exactly does that have to do with my comment that explained why we were probably seeing some delay? 

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Define gross mismanagement? I'm not sure you and I are tracking on this one but it's ok neither one of us is going to fix or solve the problem. Hopefully we are lead out of this with solid direction and care. Off to sell more milk....I'm profoundly thankful to still be employed and insured during this time. I thank my lucky stars every minute of every day. Peace all

Comments are becoming quite common from some corners in regards to gross negligence from this administration. That is no where near the case. There wasn't even any negligence as far as I see at this point though I would like to look a little further into it. What we are basically seeing at this point is that people are now equating a difference of a opinion on how something should be handled as evidence of negligence or a mishandling of a situation. That is not how it works.

[Yeoman]

15 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

this is what this story actually says:

 

Officials are still investigating the cause of the apparent relapses. But Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), has said the virus may have been reactivated rather than the patients being re-infected. 

Other experts said faulty tests may be playing a role, or remnants of the virus may still be in patients’ systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.
 

this story cites a study of a non-COVID-19 virus and 2 non-peer-reviewed studies from a preprint site where a number of COVID-19 studies have been pulled because the science was faulty. 

also the author of the piece is a botanist.

that’s not a scientific article and it doesn’t prove the assertions you made.

if it’s more of the same, please don’t.

Boom!

[Wonderdog]

8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Boom!

Or it might have been this or that..... Botton line is they don't know. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, wxtrix said:

this is patently untrue. in fact, there were 3-4 deeply-sourced news stories this weekend which amply illustrate the long string of failures.

 

<shrug> OK. Whatever. The last 3 1/2 years have been full of deeply sourced (and I use the term deeply sourced loosely here) articles that have fallen all apart with just a little bit of scrutiny. And I am sure I have seen some of these articles that you are referring too, articles that I found somewhat questionable in some aspects. But I prefer to see what unfolds after the whole story comes out and not just one that is heavily one sided. Now this thread has been for the most parts politics free and I would like to keep it that way. So I am not going to engage in any further political discussion with you.

[Yeoman]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Or it might have been this or that..... Botton line is they don't know. 

Correct - but instead lets cite unproven or misinterpreted claims to really amp up the fear and panic. Hopefully it doesn't come to 80% of the population standing in a bread line to start putting things into perspective. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, wxtrix said:

i’m pointing out your timeline is 100% based in your personal politics and so should not be posted in this thread.

I am not a fan of Trump. Never have been, never will. I find he is pretty much an asshole, with many of his policies I don't agree with. But I believe in giving everyone a fair shake even those I don't agree with. I could go on but what's the point. So I find it humorous when I get labeled as an apologist for him just because I am just trying to give an unbiased opinion of things. Now will my opinion change as more things come out? Maybe. But at this point that is not what I am seeing.

[Inverted_Trough]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion. But I have been working on a time line this last week or so on everything that occurred through this pandemic. There is much to fill in and it will take quite a bit of time to finish it. But at this time from what I have seen so far there wasn't anything close to a gross mismanagement of the response to this pandemic. Now would I have done things a little different here and there? Yes, but that is a matter of opinion. And could they have maybe reacted a day or two sooner? Yeah maybe that too. But nothing at this point suggests any gross negligence on this administrations part. 

Now as I continue to research maybe my conclusions will change. But the problem I am seeing is there wasn't what I would consider clear cut actionable intelligence. The message was getting polluted with misinformation from the CCP and WHO. This harmed everyone. It is hard to just decide to shut down the country on just a piece of information here and there especially when the over riding message is one of clear sailing ahead. And you also have to consider that the intelligence quite often has to find its way up the food chain to get to the ears that need to hear it. This takes time. But again, I will be looking further into it when I have a more detailed timeline.

You should read these 80 pages of e-mails as part of your "research".

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah. It’s nasty lol. I’m staying away from it.

I remember you being sick with similar symptoms about a month ago. I don’t think you were tested but do you feel confident it wasn’t covid?

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

You should read these 80 pages of e-mails as part of your "research".

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

I started looking into them last night. Was just too tired at that point so quite after a few pages.Will try to get to it sometime later.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I remember you being sick with similar symptoms about a month ago. I don’t think you were tested but do you feel confident it wasn’t covid?

I have no idea. I do plan to get the serology test when it comes out.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I have no idea. I do plan to get the serology test when it comes out.

Good idea. It’ll be interesting in the coming years as people visit their doctors for routine physicals to see if they had contracted the virus without ever knowing it. Assuming, of course, that checking becomes part of the routine bloodwork.

[Wonderdog]

17 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

it’s true that we don’t know yet, but all 3 of those links were crap stories.

Everyone comes at this from their own biases.  I will go so far as to say I wouldn't trust any news article or scientific study since it's so early. In fact the only person I would trust it's Dr. Fauci, even though he downplayed the situation. And at 79,  I don't think he gives a rat's arse if his feelings now are not in line with any particular political party. People need to read all articles instead of the ones that are advocated by one party.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Why do u wish to attack showme over his opinion?  You may vehemently disagree with him.  But i assume you agree with his right to have an opinion.  If his post said something negative about this administration would you be demanding he post in the “politics” forum?  And he stated that based on what he has scene he doesn’t see evidence of gross negligence but is willing to keep an open mind.  You act is if giant decisions like effectively shutting down the economy are just made on a whim.  We should all respect Left, Center and Right opinions on an open thread.  And again i did not see this as a political post until you determined that it wasn’t a post overtly bashing the current administration.

trixie is fine. please try and limit the mentions of the current administration, who is to blame, when things could have been done, etc. that stuff gets too close to political discussions. 

lets all move along from this specific topic. thanks.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

trixie is fine. please try and limit the mentions of the current administration, who is to blame, when things could have been done, etc. that stuff gets too close to political discussions. 

lets all move along from this specific topic. thanks.

I will apologize in advance if your are in fact deleting her posts. But if you are leaving  here attacks on me standing, on what was a civil discussion with others, and yet deleting my responses/defenses against those attacks I find that hardly fair.

[mappy]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I will apologize in advance if your are in fact deleting her posts. But if you are leaving  here attacks on me standing, on what was a civil discussion with others, and yet deleting my responses/defenses against those attacks I find that hardly fair.

i didn't see any attacks against you, showme. she was arguing against the articles that you posted. that is not an attack against you. 

not sure how to handle this situation as i did not find her posts to be off-based or wrong. 

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

i didn't see any attacks against you, showme. she was arguing against the articles that you posted. that is not an attack against you. 

not sure how to handle this situation as i did not find her posts to be off-based or wrong. 

If you saw no issues with her posts then I am not sure why you saw issues with mine and deleted a couple of mine as well as another's post who was in defense of me. I find it disconcerting that we can have a civil discussion in general over what we saw as far as response and yet we have her jump in out of the blue (in a thread I haven't seen her in to the best of my knowledge) claiming political bias on my part and I need to take it elsewhere. And surprisingly <sarcasm> enough I sure didn't see here go after the others that initiated this discussion.Now why would she go on the attack on me that was responding to others comments and yet leave theirs alone? Maybe  we were seeing political bias on her part? I try my damnedest to keep my opinions as unbiased as possible. So for some to jump in claiming otherwise just because it doesn't fit what they want to hear pisses the hell out of me. 

eta: I didn't post any articles, that was someone else. She just had issues with my opinion.