COVID-19 Talk

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

This is actually the guideline I've been using to determine how to handle items given to me in the pandemic.

 

- Mail goes into a quarantine container for 2 days (24 hours should be safe but I just make sure)

- Plastic, if nothing is perishible inside, it gets quarantined for 3 days and washed.

- If it's perishible like groceries, that's when I have my military operation, walk it to the kitchen, and do my washing, bleaching of surfaces I walked over and where the groceries sat, heck even putting the used grocery bags in the trash can, I spray bleach into the trash can that way when I grab the bag, the smell that you usually smell that has trash in it could have virus particles. I have my strategy for grocery deliveries down.

- Clothing, cloth, etc gets quarantined for like 3 days and then washed on high temp. Make sure to spray down your dirty laundry basket in between.

You are never, ever gonna get this virus. Corona would have to be crazy to mess with you lol.

[nw baltimore wx]

My sister-in-law’s sister is a construction project manager on site in DC and just got the news she has covid. Says she’s ok. Weak, no appetite, but otherwise ok. She resisted getting the test because she didn’t want to waste it on what she was sure was not the virus.

[ErinInTheSky]

Sigh

 

Not going to lie. Being cloistered up for so long now hit me with a bit of a depression funk today. I can't wait til we can socialize again. I know why we have to hold back right now, but damn, the day we can all come back to normal will be so wonderful. I hope that there is a normal that we can return to one day.

[snowfan]

Normal is gonna take awhile. Folks need to start mentally preparing for no pool season this year. And, looking ahead to the fall.....I'm a penn st season ticket holder for football....I dont know htf they're going to have gatherings w 100k+ people. And, I can assure you that no CFB would be crippling for a lot of college towns. Idk what the solution is unless the season is simply delayed til later in the fall or held in the spring of '21, but that's a logistical nightmare.

No CFB would also be crippling to lots of lower level scholarship sports that are funded by football and basketball revenue. The impacts are wide reaching and in a lot of not so obvious ways.

[Chris78]

7 hours ago, supernovasky said:

This is actually the guideline I've been using to determine how to handle items given to me in the pandemic.

 

- Mail goes into a quarantine container for 2 days (24 hours should be safe but I just make sure)

- Plastic, if nothing is perishible inside, it gets quarantined for 3 days and washed.

- If it's perishible like groceries, that's when I have my military operation, walk it to the kitchen, and do my washing, bleaching of surfaces I walked over and where the groceries sat, heck even putting the used grocery bags in the trash can, I spray bleach into the trash can that way when I grab the bag, the smell that you usually smell that has trash in it could have virus particles. I have my strategy for grocery deliveries down.

- Clothing, cloth, etc gets quarantined for like 3 days and then washed on high temp. Make sure to spray down your dirty laundry basket in between.

Wow. Thats quite the process.  With working in the grocery industry I feel I am always exposing myself to germs coming into contact with hundreds if not thousands of people eveyday.

[snowfan]

For those of us in AA Co

https://aahealth.org/covid19data/

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

My sister-in-law’s sister is a construction project manager on site in DC and just got the news she has covid. Says she’s ok. Weak, no appetite, but otherwise ok. She resisted getting the test because she didn’t want to waste it on what she was sure was not the virus.

Sorry to hear that.  Prayers to her for a speedy recovery.

[esullivan]

9 hours ago, supernovasky said:

This is actually the guideline I've been using to determine how to handle items given to me in the pandemic.

 

- Mail goes into a quarantine container for 2 days (24 hours should be safe but I just make sure)

- Plastic, if nothing is perishible inside, it gets quarantined for 3 days and washed.

- If it's perishible like groceries, that's when I have my military operation, walk it to the kitchen, and do my washing, bleaching of surfaces I walked over and where the groceries sat, heck even putting the used grocery bags in the trash can, I spray bleach into the trash can that way when I grab the bag, the smell that you usually smell that has trash in it could have virus particles. I have my strategy for grocery deliveries down.

- Clothing, cloth, etc gets quarantined for like 3 days and then washed on high temp. Make sure to spray down your dirty laundry basket in between.

Basically do the same. Left the mail in a box for about 5 days - then finally looked at it and found 4 pieces from DC gov regarding the unemployment benefits I filed. Except I didn’t file so dealing with identity fraud for the second time. No one returns any calls from DC Employment office (know they’re swamped).  Bank notified and still have credit alert active from the first fraud attempt. Didn’t need the extra anxiety. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Sorry to hear that.  Prayers to her for a speedy recovery.

Thanks. She’s in good spirits and is doing well. She’s not in the at-risk age group so unless something drastic changes, she should be fine. The only unfortunate part is that she has to isolate herself from husband and kids.

[jaydreb]

14 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thanks. She’s in good spirits and is doing well. She’s not in the at-risk age group so unless something drastic changes, she should be fine. The only unfortunate part is that she has to isolate herself from husband and kids.

It’s good to hear that she is doing well.

My sister (age 42) who lives in NJ had it a few weeks ago.  So did her husband and both kids (ages 14 and 12).  She experienced it as a bad flu, with cough and fever that lasted a couple of days before she got better.  The kids had similar but milder symptoms and recovered a little quicker.  Her husband had almost no symptoms at all except for a loss of taste and smell.  My sister also lost her taste and smell but it has since returned.  

She is donating plasma and antibodies tomorrow and getting an antibody test.  

 

[nw baltimore wx]

44 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s good to hear that she is doing well.

My sister (age 42) who lives in NJ had it a few weeks ago.  So did her husband and both kids (ages 14 and 12).  She experienced it as a bad flu, with cough and fever that lasted a couple of days before she got better.  The kids had similar but milder symptoms and recovered a little quicker.  Her husband had almost no symptoms at all except for a loss of taste and smell.  My sister also lost her taste and smell but it has since returned.  

She is donating plasma and antibodies tomorrow and getting an antibody test.  

 

I’m glad they’ve all recovered, and pretty cool that she’s donating to the cause. Out of curiosity, did any of them get tested or did they just know from all the symptoms?

[jaydreb]

20 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m glad they’ve all recovered, and pretty cool that she’s donating to the cause. Out of curiosity, did any of them get tested or did they just know from all the symptoms?

Her youngest son got tested because he had respiratory issues (RSV) as a baby and so he qualified for a test at the time.  This was several weeks ago when the testing criteria was probably a little stricter and my brother in law really had to argue with the testing center to get the kid the test.  He tested positive (and was a little excited to be the first kid in his school district to get it), so the obvious assumption is that the rest of the family had it as well.  The loss of smell/taste is a tell tale symptom as well.  My brother in law worked with someone whose daughter was sick after returning from Italy and she subsequently tested positive as well.  So it’s a pretty open and shut case. 

She’ll know more tomorrow when she takes the antibody test.

[showmethesnow]

This is a good article up to a point. Lays out some of my thinking into a much higher infection rate as well as the much lower mortality rate. I really thought it showed a great deal of thought and intelligence by him. But then he has to drop politics squarely into the middle of it and his logic and conclusions go straight into the crapper. Being as this article was dated March 20'th you would have thought he would have realized at that point that the numbers from China could not be trusted. Hell, at that time it was becoming pretty obvious that the numbers being thrown out were nowhere near the reality. And yet he used them anyway because they were convenient/necessary to move to his conclusion that the Orange Man is bad. This is pretty much your brain on politics. Turns even the smartest into idiots. Now this is something I have to deal with everyday from both the Right and the Left when I am researching different subjects. Just trying to figure out whether the facts and conclusions can be trusted or whether they have been made for the most part useless because of political leanings eats up a good deal of time. Until the intellectual community cam start looking at things in an unbiased way all the conclusions drawn from this virus and hence the solutions afterwards are going to be faulty if not out right wrong. That is really not the way to solve the problems we are facing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

[showmethesnow]

Now this was one of my concerns when I started reading reports that a significant number of people were showing signs of a resurgence of the virus after they were thought to have been cleared of it. It is bad enough that the virus might hide out in the body to then re surge down the road a few days/weeks later. At least with that you can extend the quarantine the appropriate amount of time to account for that. But to have the autoimmune response to this virus fade after a few months allowing the host to be reinfected down the road at some later date throws all models on virus spread out the door. Just assuming that this is the case (reinfection) it will be paramount that they are able to create a vaccine that can initiate the appropriate response from the immune system to give us immunity for at least a year if not years. Otherwise I think we will need to implement somewhat radical protocols to keep this contained in the future. Now I am nowhere near the expert on this subject but from what I have read from different experts within the field is that the likelihood of reinfection is of very low probability, at least for such time periods of weeks or months. So there is no sense of panic on my part whatsoever, just an awareness of the possibility.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice

[showmethesnow]

Thought this was a pretty good article on what they are seeing with how the virus is interacting with the body. Just goes to show that when looking at different countries/regions and their infection rates and trying to attribute these numbers directly to response/mediation implemented is faulty logic. While response/mediation will have an impact, probably somewhat significant, it doesn't change the fact that there are many other variables in play that will impact these numbers possibly significantly in their own right. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-genes-may-explain-why-some-face-greater-danger-than-others

[showmethesnow]

German study just came out that suggests we are massively under counting infections within the US. Says we are only detecting 1.6% of cases and the total number of infected is more in the number of 26 million. Which would break down to roughly an 8% infection rate currently. Haven't looked into their numbers at this time so I have no idea on the validity of the their premises to reach these numbers but I will say the numbers they are throwing out are more in line with my thinking for awhile now. Also have seen other reports popping up in recent days that are also favoring the thoughts of much higher infection rates as well. 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/09/german-study-u-s-only-detecting-1-6-covid-19-cases/5120978002/

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

This is a good article up to a point. Lays out some of my thinking into a much higher infection rate as well as the much lower mortality rate. I really thought it showed a great deal of thought and intelligence by him. But then he has to drop politics squarely into the middle of it and his logic and conclusions go straight into the crapper. Being as this article was dated March 20'th you would have thought he would have realized at that point that the numbers from China could not be trusted. Hell, at that time it was becoming pretty obvious that the numbers being thrown out were nowhere near the reality. And yet he used them anyway because they were convenient/necessary to move to his conclusion that the Orange Man is bad. This is pretty much your brain on politics. Turns even the smartest into idiots. Now this is something I have to deal with everyday from both the Right and the Left when I am researching different subjects. Just trying to figure out whether the facts and conclusions can be trusted or whether they have been made for the most part useless because of political leanings eats up a good deal of time. Until the intellectual community cam start looking at things in an unbiased way all the conclusions drawn from this virus and hence the solutions afterwards are going to be faulty if not out right wrong. That is really not the way to solve the problems we are facing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

Would the mortality rate really be much lower if everyone who was truly infected kept interacting in public as normal? I know chicken egg theory but I think any conversation about numbers and % needs to be framed in the social distancing quarantine vs not doing those things. My opinion of course...I really want this to end soon I'm tired of trying to juggle milk supply daily to my customers...phones ringing all day from Hannaford to Stop and Shop Giant Harris Teeter Publix etc. The volume of orders is through the roof

[aldie 22]

One thing I think is cool is seeing the pollution levels reducing in the world. Blue skies and visibility of many miles exposing wonderful views in the world is awesome 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

One thing I think is cool is seeing the pollution levels reducing in the world. Blue skies and visibility of many miles exposing wonderful views in the world is awesome 

If we keep this going maybe we can cool the oceans and it might snow again.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Would the mortality rate really be much lower if everyone who was truly infected kept interacting in public as normal? I know chicken egg theory but I think any conversation about numbers and % needs to be framed in the social distancing quarantine vs not doing those things. My opinion of course...I really want this to end soon I'm tired of trying to juggle milk supply daily to my customers...phones ringing all day from Hannaford to Stop and Shop Giant Harris Teeter Publix etc. The volume of orders is through the roof

To be honest, I really am not sure how to gauge the Social Distancing. I think for the most part it has been a benefit. But there is one sticking point with it and that has to deal with the family unit. Now I hope this is somewhat understandable.

If you consider that if one person is infected with the virus within the family chances are very good, one if not all other members, will become infected as well due to the longer close quarters which this family would not typically have otherwise. So considering you have a 4 family unit we are now talking multiply that one person into 2, 3 or even 4 cases. You also have to consider that no matter how well we try to, by far most families will still have some minimal interaction of some form outside of this family unit. So though it may be small, there is still a chance that someone will get infected with an otherwise healthy family unit. And this isn't even considering that one of these individuals may be of a reckless nature increasing their chances substantially. That one infection then gets multiplied by a factor of 2, 3 or even 4. Considering that as well as some other factors I really think it becomes an issue of when social distancing actually was enacted. If it gets enacted while we are still seeing low infections rates it can have a very positive impact. But on the other hand if we are seeing large infection rates when it gets enacted I can actually see it of having little to no benefits if not even possibly being of a negative nature.

[nw baltimore wx]

33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

One thing I think is cool is seeing the pollution levels reducing in the world. Blue skies and visibility of many miles exposing wonderful views in the world is awesome 

The before and after pictures out of India are crazy. Who could live in that? But I guess LA and NYC were pretty bad back in the 70’s. I remember a ton of code orange and red days back then.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

German study just came out that suggests we are massively under counting infections within the US. Says we are only detecting 1.6% of cases and the total number of infected is more in the number of 26 million. Which would break down to roughly an 8% infection rate currently. Haven't looked into their numbers at this time so I have no idea on the validity of the their premises to reach these numbers but I will say the numbers they are throwing out are more in line with my thinking for awhile now. Also have seen other reports popping up in recent days that are also favoring the thoughts of much higher infection rates as well. 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/09/german-study-u-s-only-detecting-1-6-covid-19-cases/5120978002/

In contrast, CDC estimates that between 9-45 million are infected with influenza each year. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe its already happening 

It snowed yesterday and will snow again Wednesday. 

I did see a few mins of graupel here yesterday.

[H2O]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If we keep this going maybe we can cool the oceans and it might snow again.

It’s a know fact that the reason for the snow in the movie Day After Tomorrow was because of coronavirus 

[showmethesnow]

Excuse me, and what subject are you now on in the Covid thread?

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I did see a few mins of graupel here yesterday.

Need I bring up your post over in the observation thread? Shame on you. 

40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it is interesting, and presents an opportunity to learn.

So before we derail this thread, what was your low temp this morning?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest, I really am not sure how to gauge the Social Distancing. I think for the most part it has been a benefit. But there is one sticking point with it and that has to deal with the family unit. Now I hope this is somewhat understandable.

If you consider that if one person is infected with the virus within the family chances are very good, one if not all other members, will become infected as well due to the longer close quarters which this family would not typically have otherwise. So considering you have a 4 family unit we are now talking multiply that one person into 2, 3 or even 4 cases. You also have to consider that no matter how well we try to, by far most families will still have some minimal interaction of some form outside of this family unit. So though it may be small, there is still a chance that someone will get infected with an otherwise healthy family unit. And this isn't even considering that one of these individuals may be of a reckless nature increasing their chances substantially. That one infection then gets multiplied by a factor of 2, 3 or even 4. Considering that as well as some other factors I really think it becomes an issue of when social distancing actually was enacted. If it gets enacted while we are still seeing low infections rates it can have a very positive impact. But on the other hand if we are seeing large infection rates when it gets enacted I can actually see it of having little to no benefits if not even possibly being of a negative nature.

I don’t follow this point.  It will spread within family units regardless.   Social distancing limits spread between family units.  I don’t think most, if any, public health expert would agree with the idea that social distancing has no benefits if there are large infection rates.  To the contrary, I think most public health experts would say social distancing is most needed when infection rates are large.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t follow this point.  It will spread within family units regardless.   Social distancing limits spread between family units.  I don’t think most, if any, public health expert would agree with the idea that social distancing has no benefits if there are large infection rates.  To the contrary, I think most public health experts would say social distancing is most needed when infection rates are large.

Not to the same degree that we would see if the family is sharing most if not all activities within the family unit. Activities that otherwise each member would be engaging with elsewhere. It really comes down to how many contacts an infected person has with the uninfected as to how likely we are to see infection. Interaction between family members will significantly higher during social distancing measures not to mention what we would see during a total lock down. Thus we are looking at even higher infection rates within the family unit then would otherwise be expected. But then you have to consider if you can catch the viruses off of surfaces and if the virus stays viable for an extended period of time (right now it looks as that is of a low order of probability). If the infection rate of contracting the virus through that method is high then you can pretty much throw everything I said about the increase in contacts in the family unit above into the trash. Really, my thoughts on the Social Distancing are in the formative state and just rattling around in my head at this time. Just trying to understand the obvious impacts and the not so obvious and how to adjust that to my thoughts on this virus' spread.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not to the same degree that we would see if the family is sharing most if not all activities within the family unit. Activities that otherwise each member would be engaging with elsewhere. It really comes down to how many contacts an infected person has with the uninfected as to how likely we are to see infection. Interaction between family members will significantly higher during social distancing measures not to mention what we would see during a total lock down. Thus we are looking at even higher infection rates within the family unit then would otherwise be expected. But then you have to consider if you can catch the viruses off of surfaces and if the virus stays viable for an extended period of time (right now it looks as that is of a low order of probability). If the infection rate of contracting the virus through that method is high then you can pretty much throw everything I said about the increase in contacts in the family unit above into the trash. Really, my thoughts on the Social Distancing are in the formative state and just rattling around in my head at this time. Just trying to understand the obvious impacts and the not so obvious and how to adjust that to my thoughts on this virus' spread.

I don’t find this line of reasoning compelling.  My wife and kids and I are in close contact regardless of quarantine.  The important factor that changes with social distancing is contact with people beyond my immediate family. 

[showmethesnow]

23 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t follow this point.  It will spread within family units regardless.   Social distancing limits spread between family units.  I don’t think most, if any, public health expert would agree with the idea that social distancing has no benefits if there are large infection rates.  To the contrary, I think most public health experts would say social distancing is most needed when infection rates are large.

Now my thinking on this aspect is very convoluted and is still in the formative state and I have tried for the last 20 minutes to try to word this in an understandable way. I just can't. What it pretty much comes down to is the chances of you infecting someone in your household vs. out in the community. Also comes down to a polluting of the potential hosts within the household and the community. So at larger infection rates in the community you have a reduction in probability of transmitting it. Yet your chances of transmitting it to your uninfected family remain the same. At some point as you increase the infection rate you probably reach a threshold point where the probability of infecting someone within your family becomes greater then infecting someone outside in the community. There are other factors as well but again I am really struggling to present this. Needless to say, I am not necessarily saying that I am correct in my thinking nor that I particularly believe it. I am just saying I can see the possibilities. Really need to think it through much more then I currently have. Would also like to see some hard data come out as well that may either support or refute my thoughts or help me to refine them.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If we keep this going maybe we can cool the oceans and it might snow again.

As god is my witness, I actually had that same thought yesterday...because I am a hella weenie.