COVID-19 Talk

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure that will ever happen on a large scale, for a variety of mostly obvious reasons.

I think their will be a concerted effort by our government to make this happen through various methods (such as tax breaks and other incentives). After all we are now living through what happens when you don't have key industries within the country. If we don't see them make this happen we will continue to revisit the issues we are now facing because of our dependency on others. It would be a major failing on our part not to make this happen.

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Do car accidents increase exponentially?  Do car accidents all happen at the same time?

Nope.  In general, car accidents follow a stable, predictable pattern, with some slight upticks on holidays.  Thus our hospital system can easily handle it.

You're comparing apples to bowling balls.

 

So if 35000 people die a year from Covid 19 in a stable predictive pattern then you are good with getting back to normal?   And a couple hospitals are overwhelmed like in NYC.  However the vast majority of hospitals are actually not overwhelmed or anywhere close. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So if 35000 people die a year from Covid 19 in a stable predictive pattern then you are good with getting back to normal?   And a couple hospitals are overwhelmed like in NYC.  However the vast majority of hospitals are actually not overwhelmed or anywhere close. 

That's not how COVID works. It's not going to be stable/predictive while opened up. The only thing stable will be the exponential increase.

[mappy]

16 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You miss the point entirely.  We can mitigate the spread of the virus.  We can also mitigate traffic deaths.  It’s about assessing risk.  We can lower the speed limit to 25 mph with strict enforcement and limit deaths on the roads to near zero. But it will be destructive to commerce and people’s lives.  Same with Covid 19.  We can enforce Strict social distancing and stay at home orders to reduce the number of deaths.  But that comes with economic destruction as well.  So it’s a cost benefit analysis comparison that makes perfect sense.  

lol what. 

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think their will be a concerted effort by our government to make this happen through various methods (such as tax breaks and other incentives). After all we are now living through what happens when you don't have key industries within the country. If we don't see them make this happen we will continue to revisit the issues we are now facing because of our dependency on others. It would be a major failing on our part not to make this happen.

You can only tax break and incentives to a point.  In the end business cares only about profits and wherever cheap labor and lax environmental controls exist thats where they will go.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, the elderly shouldn't have had much stock exposure in their 401k in the first place.  But this notion of shaming people for being concerned about it is laughable.  

I mentioned elderly and I probably should have been more specific. Much of what I am referencing are those that are about to retire where many still have their money in a 401K. They are depending on this money to be able to retire. Take a huge chunk out and that can drastically change their plans. Now optimally you would hope that those about to retire are putting their money into far less riskier investment options. But many just not do that for whatever reason. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

lol what. 

Because everyone hates sitting behind the slow ass grandma and it will make someone try and pass them with the double lines and then they hit a city bus that shouldn't have passed inspections.  But its a risk we take every day.

[Inverted_Trough]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So if 35000 people die a year from Covid 19 in a stable predictive pattern then you are good with getting back to normal?  

Yes.  That would mean it has characteristics of the flu (i.e. endemic in society but we have a vaccine, treatments and partial immunity).  And stability and predictability means our hospital system can handle it.  Finally you're getting the point!

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

However the vast majority of hospitals are actually not overwhelmed or anywhere close. 

Yes, because of social distancing.  You're getting it now!

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Because everyone hates sitting behind the slow ass grandma and it will make someone try and pass them with the double lines and then they hit a city bus that shouldn't have passed inspections.  But its a risk we take every day.

yeah i didn't get the part about how driving 25mph will actually impact peoples lives negatively and cause commerce destruction. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

You can only tax break and incentives to a point.  In the end business cares only about profits and wherever cheap labor and lax environmental controls exist thats where they will go.

Granted, they may have to get creative. Maybe even consider tariffs being placed on specific products to force the issue (really don't like this option but it is what it is). All I know is that this needs to be done. No ifs ands or buts. 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol what. 

What is your question?  It is a hypothetical scenario.  I’d be happy to elaborate to clarify the comparison.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

yeah i didn't get the part about how driving 25mph will actually impact peoples lives negatively and cause commerce destruction. 

You realize that the interstate system was designed to speed the transport of goods and services, right?  It's vital to the economy and a point of competition between economies.  

[Baltimorewx]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah i didn't get the part about how driving 25mph will actually impact peoples lives negatively and cause commerce destruction. 

Because it’ll take 3 hours to go anywhere?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You realize that the interstate system was designed to speed the transport of goods and services, right?  It's vital to the economy and a point of competition between economies.  

of course, but highways aren't 25mph speeds otherwise they wouldn't be highways

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I tried and failed to reel this in. Carry on, friends.   

Why does the reaper need a space suit?  

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

Because everyone hates sitting behind the slow ass grandma and it will make someone try and pass them with the double lines and then they hit a city bus that shouldn't have passed inspections.  But its a risk we take every day.

Finally someone who gets it!!! I didn’t think it was that complicated of a scenario.  Soon people are going to go back to their lives because it’s a risk people will be willing to take.  Just like we do every day.  

[mappy]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Because it’ll take 3 hours to go anywhere?

but are road systems aren't set up that way and last i checked i've never experienced a situation where suddenly all speeds drop to 25 nationwide

bad example IMO

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I tried and failed to reel this in. Carry on, friends.   

I considered jumping in, but I figured my opinion that we were probably looking at a Early/Mid May time frame to start the initial ramp up would cause even more havoc. So I decided just to keep my mouth shut. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, mappy said:

of course, but highways aren't 25mph speeds otherwise they wouldn't be highways

His point was you could make them 25mph zones in order to reduce traffic deaths to very low, but we don't (haven't) because the reward (lower deaths) isn't worth the risk( damage to economy, less freedom to travel, etc.).

[Baltimorewx]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

but are road systems aren't set up that way and last i checked i've never experienced a situation where suddenly all speeds drop to 25 nationwide

bad example IMO

I’m not saying it’s a great example but I understand the point. The conversation here is a matter of risk

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

What is your question?  It is a hypothetical scenario.  I’d be happy to elaborate to clarify the comparison.

bad example to compare too. but thats just me. 

[mappy]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

His point was you could make them 25mph zones in order to reduce traffic deaths to very low, but we don't (haven't) because the reward (lower deaths) isn't worth the risk( damage to economy, less freedom to travel, etc.).

 

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

I’m not saying it’s a great example but I understand the point. The conversation here is a matter of risk

sorry, you'll have to bear with me. my scientific brain can only handle so many hypothetical situations that will never happen to compare this virus to

[H2O]

But part of the problem is everyone is just assuming we will get back to the way we used to do things.  We might not be able to and that has to be entertained as well.  A new way of conducting business could come from this.  In some ways we've started to see it with how business has had to adapt to the change.  And in some cases its made things better.

[Inverted_Trough]

if car accidents were contagious, would anyone drive?

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I tried and failed to reel this in. Carry on, friends.   

Ha...Is that from that movie with Bullock and George Clooney? ("Gravity"?)

[Inverted_Trough]

plus, I haven't seen anyone advocating for shuttering the economy for years.  It'll open back up.  It'll be a risk-based, phased approach.  I think the large gatherings (sports, concerts) is the most vexing challenge.  Restaurants can open back up with spaced tables, capacity limits, etc.

[Inverted_Trough]

and my 401(k) is in the tank like everyone else's.  But the long term viability of my 401(k) is based on not allowing this to happen again.  So I favor a slow, phased approach.  It is what it is.

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

if car accidents were contagious, would anyone drive?

There are many contagious diseases.  Does (or did) anyone  ever leave their house?

[Inverted_Trough]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

There are many contagious diseases.  Does (or did) anyone  ever leave their house?

I should have clarified:  If car accidents were contagious and nobody had immunity, we had no treatments or a vaccine - and because of that, it would grow exponentially - would anyone drive?

[NorthArlington101]

We can dodge the issue, but ultimately what people are debating is whether they think this virus is genuinely scary enough to shut things down for. Research has shown that opinions on the severity of the virus are a partisan issue, and ultimately that's unlikely to change. While I find this debate fun, we all know its not going anywhere!