COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

That is not my argument, and you know it.

I work from home now from the most part.  But, I go into the office when I must and continue to grocery shop with sensible precautions.

but it kind of is, you seem to be in a rush to get back to normal when we arent there yet as a country. 

[ErinInTheSky]

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

38000 annual deaths by auto accidents in US.

523 air craft deaths in 2018 (cant find numbers from 2019).

How much control do you have over the operation, production, and maintenance of said buses, trains, cars, or planes?

Yet, you ride in them, despite knowing there is a non-zero chance it results in your death.

There are 102 motor vehicle deaths every day in the US.

 

COVID-19 killed 2,000 yesterday WHILE UNDER LOCKDOWN.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you have just been added to the Phin shiithead list.

lol EJ deleted his post

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

lol EJ deleted his post

Good move. Too bad I captured it.

[showmethesnow]

39 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If you open up too early we risk being back in lockdown again, which ultimately would be worse than extending an original lockdown to make sure we’re good to go. 

That is part of the equation and has to be considered. Many variables involved not just a handful. Ultimately when/where we begin startup of the country will probably not happen until they are comfortable that we can identify and contain any new cases without further flareups. And running hand in hand with that is having the ability to being able to have testing that can be done on the spot within hours if not minutes vs. taking it to the lab option for a day/days. I am thinking at this point once numbers get to between 5-10%, maybe 15% of peak infection rates we will start to see those areas start ramping up again.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you have just been added to the Phin shiithead list.

I don't really care if Phin et al gets angry at me.  EastCost's argument that we have to open things up and can't keep everything closed down is valid. The public health and emergency management fields are keenly aware of that and are working with the business sector to do that.  But I can tell you that even once things open back up, there is going to be a 2nd spike in cases if this is not done in concert across this country.  Some of the states that were reticent to enact physical distancing actions are going to just blanket open things and slow it down for the rest of us.  We can't even test and ID hotspots yet or pass laws to protect workers from being fired who are quarantined. If we can't get that protective measure passed then blanket stay-at-home orders are going to be the norm for a time.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, mappy said:

but it kind of is, you seem to be in a rush to get back to normal when we arent there yet as a country. 

I said no such thing.

I said it was ridiculous to suggest there is no calculus involved in the recovery from this.  There is always a calculus...in almost everything we do.  Life is an endless string of risk/reward decisions based on imperfect circumstances and options.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol EJ deleted his post

 

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Good move. Too bad I captured it.

I'll say it again.  The real victim here for some people are their 401(k)s.

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

There are 102 motor vehicle deaths every day in the US.

 

COVID-19 killed 2,000 yesterday WHILE UNDER LOCKDOWN.

Thank you.  I understand numbers and math.  

[H2O]

I have legit sat here and thought of how a bowling ball the shape of an apple would actually roll down a lane. And this doesn’t bother me one bit. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I have legit sat here and thought of how a bowling ball the shape of an apple would actually roll down a lane. And this doesn’t bother me one bit. 

Quarantine is getting to us all lol.

[BristowWx]

Just now, H2O said:

I have legit sat here and thought of how a bowling ball the shape of an apple would actually roll down a lane. And this doesn’t bother me one bit. 

What kind of apple?  Red Delicious would be a mess.  Too many bumps.  Rome might have a chance.  Now I’m thinking about it. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I said no such thing.

I said it was ridiculous to suggest there is no calculus involved in the recovery from this.  There is always a calculus...in almost everything we do.  Life is an endless string of risk/reward decisions based on imperfect circumstances and options.

but no body is doing what you are saying. you keep pushing this narrative that isn't being discussed. everyone here knows the risks and if we open too soon, or too fast, we are back to square one with another spike in cases and deaths. and you can't compare this with car accidents. you just cant. 

[CAPE]

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

[gymengineer]

This article explains the almost unimaginable changes to our collective experience contained in each of the major “how to open back up” plans:
 
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

South Korea, Japan, Singapore, China. They all had it down.

 

Germany has been pretty good too with sentinel-level testing.

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

Especially when reports and briefings were done back as early as January if not earlier

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have legit sat here and thought of how a bowling ball the shape of an apple would actually roll down a lane. And this doesn’t bother me one bit. 

This is the one you want.

[nw baltimore wx]

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Has anyone else read about a specific vaccine given in some countries at birth that have some weird coincidences with lack of transmissions in those places? I’ve heard some studies are underway to see if there already isn’t a vaccine out there, or at least one that reduces transmissions considerably.

I had put this in banter, but I’ll bring it here too. If you want to feel hopeful, check out the tuberculosis (BCG) vaccine that’s given in many countries that are reporting lower cases than “normal.” Of course, some of those countries are the same ones that you’d expect to lie, so maybe no connection at all. However, this interview with Dr. Robert Gallo, the director at the Institute of Human Virology at UMD School of Medicine is intriguing. Go to about 1 minute remaining.

 

[Baltimorewx]

The only thing I want to add is that death is necessary for the sustainability of the planet. Viruses are nature’s way of controlling it to a degree. Births and population growth far outweigh deaths in the world so to what point is our population sustainable? Not an issue for us but who knows maybe a few hundred years from now. That said, I’m not saying we shouldn’t be doing what we’re doing. But death is a difficult thing for us to talk about and I’m just pointing out while painful, it’s necessary. I don’t know what’s gonna happen In 100 years when the average life expectancy is closing on 100...

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I'll say it again.  The real victim here for some people are their 401(k)s.

Sadly, many of the elderly depend on that for their retirement. If we don't see some sort of recovery in that regard there will be many elderly that will suffer a good deal.

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

The seeds of what were seeing are pretty much be tracked back to Bush and NAFTA. And administration after administration have followed in the footsteps of this where policy has basically driven all are capabilities to handle this virus over seas. Just the way it is. One things we should see in the future is a strong move to get our capabilities/manufacturing back in house instead of depending on foreign players.

[Wonderdog]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

We'll have this next year!

[EastCoast NPZ]

15 minutes ago, mappy said:

but no body is doing what you are saying. you keep pushing this narrative that isn't being discussed. everyone here knows the risks and if we open too soon, or too fast, we are back to square one with another spike in cases and deaths. and you can't compare this with car accidents. you just cant. 

All I can say is go back and look at my original post.

[SnowGolfBro]

45 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

car accidents aren't contagious.  It's like comparing apples to bowling balls.

You miss the point entirely.  We can mitigate the spread of the virus.  We can also mitigate traffic deaths.  It’s about assessing risk.  We can lower the speed limit to 25 mph with strict enforcement and limit deaths on the roads to near zero. But it will be destructive to commerce and people’s lives.  Same with Covid 19.  We can enforce Strict social distancing and stay at home orders to reduce the number of deaths.  But that comes with economic destruction as well.  So it’s a cost benefit analysis comparison that makes perfect sense.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m feeling extra spry today so let me throw this out for the sake of argument. 

There is almost certainly going to be a risk calculus to opening things up because we haven’t seen countries—even with low case numbers—successfully eliminate cases. That might be the case until there’s a vaccine.

We obviously don’t open things up now but let’s say by June 15 there are 4K new cases a day compared to the 30k+ we see now. That’s approximately an 85% drop in the new infection rate. Those cases are more dispersed nationally so there are fewer hotspots and less health care strain. 

If we can do antibody testing, so people can go to work with a certificate of immunity, but we still can’t do real isolation and contact tracing for new cases, do you open?

If you try to open, what restrictions remain in place? 

I've gamed this out often.

 

- Immunity tests will maybe result in 3% of the US having been infected, so "immunity test -> go to work" is honestly not as useful as some like to claim it will be. that's still 97% of the country susceptible. So... honestly, no, don't open.

- If you try to open, you have to make sure you have 3 things: Ability to test, widespread, often, to identify new cases. Ability to cluster-trace, probably with privacy rights being curtailed in the process. Ability to mitigate spread, widespread use of facemasks, and disinfecting of streets like they have done in all of the countries where they have gotten it under control. See the following videos... this is the only way that this virus has come under control anywhere - bring cases down to a few handfuls, and massive disinfecting + testing.

 

 

 

 

With the above measures (Masks, sentinel testing, contact tracing, and disinfecting), you can reopen up once you get case counts low.

 

So where are the problems?

- We don't have production capacity for masks and the president has been unwilling to use the defense production act to ensure mass production occurs.

- We don't have production capacity for tests, reagents, and have not stockpiled supplies to make them happen. It may take months to get these supplies.

- We don't have production capacity for chemical disinfectants. They're in global shortage. It may take months to get these supplies too.

- We don't have enough government employees to contact trace.

 

So if you open up anyway?

Cases go right back to where we currently are, and we're back in the same pot, where we either shut down again for a month and a half, or where we lose our entire medical system as they are only dealing with COVID patients and all other causes of death begin to rise, threatening to tear our country apart and we live in a 3rd world country.

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

Yup.  Pandemics, terrorism and cyber attacks are entirely and human disaster.  There's no excuse for not being able to detect it, test for it and isolated it.  The clinical treatment apparatus certainly will be delayed but that cannot be helped.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You miss the point entirely.  We can mitigate the spread of the virus.  We can also mitigate traffic deaths.  It’s about assessing risk.  We can lower the speed limit to 25 mph with strict enforcement and limit deaths on the roads to near zero. But it will be destructive to commerce and people’s lives.  Same with Covid 19.  We can enforce Strict social distancing and stay at home orders to reduce the number of deaths.  But that comes with economic destruction as well.  So it’s a cost benefit analysis comparison that makes perfect sense.  

Be careful.  You're in danger of being accused about being concerned about your 401k and the welfare of your family.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Sadly, many of the elderly depend on that for their retirement. If we don't see some sort of recovery in that regard there will be many elderly that will suffer a good deal.

The seeds of what were seeing are pretty much be tracked back to Bush and NAFTA. And administration after administration have followed in the footsteps of this where policy has basically driven all are capabilities to handle this virus over seas. Just the way it is. One things we should see in the future is a strong move to get our capabilities/manufacturing back in house instead of depending on foreign players.

Not sure that will ever happen on a large scale, for a variety of mostly obvious reasons.

[Inverted_Trough]

9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You miss the point entirely.  We can mitigate the spread of the virus.  We can also mitigate traffic deaths.  It’s about assessing risk.  We can lower the speed limit to 25 mph with strict enforcement and limit deaths on the roads to near zero. But it will be destructive to commerce and people’s lives.  Same with Covid 19.  We can enforce Strict social distancing and stay at home orders to reduce the number of deaths.  But that comes with economic destruction as well.  So it’s a cost benefit analysis comparison that makes perfect sense.  

Do car accidents increase exponentially?  Do car accidents all happen at the same time?

Nope.  In general, car accidents follow a stable, predictable pattern, with some slight upticks on holidays.  Thus our hospital system can easily handle it.

You're comparing apples to bowling balls.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Sadly, many of the elderly depend on that for their retirement. If we don't see some sort of recovery in that regard there will be many elderly that will suffer a good deal.

The seeds of what were seeing are pretty much be tracked back to Bush and NAFTA. And administration after administration have followed in the footsteps of this where policy has basically driven all are capabilities to handle this virus over seas. Just the way it is. One things we should see in the future is a strong move to get our capabilities/manufacturing back in house instead of depending on foreign players.

Well, the elderly shouldn't have had much stock exposure in their 401k in the first place.  But this notion of shaming people for being concerned about it is laughable.