COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's not going to be "we will need to be locked down for 4-5 years"

 

But I've been reading a lot of public health experts, economists, etc... and it's likely the disease will be with us for a long time, and it's going to completely change how we interact as a society. I don't doubt we will find ways to engage on socialization and economic activity again in the relatively near future once we get it rather under control. But it's going to wreck anything requiring the gathering of a significant number of people in one place for a while.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

 

This is the best article I've read on how this probably looks longterm issues. It's likely going to be multiple, repeated lockdowns. School closures will be a regular part of life and we should plan to get resources available for distance learning. Things like national availability of broadband internet and chromebooks for kids, for instance, could become very important. Mass gatherings may be able to happen in the periods where there are no reported cases, but cases will pop up repeatedly and threaten to reignite the blaze.

 

It's going to be a very tough next few years.

I understand that it won’t be a lockdown, but it will be an enormous challenge to manage this without herd immunity for 4-5 years. 

[ErinInTheSky]

8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I understand that it won’t be a lockdown, but it will be an enormous challenge to manage this without herd immunity for 4-5 years. 

Yeah, it's going to be very challenging for a lot of people. 

 

Honestly the biggest challenge that I see is our hospital systems. I have an elective surgery (that I really do need) and it's delayed indefinitely. That's with lockdowns. If we ease lockdowns, the hospital system goes to even more crap. What happens next time my dad needs a stent? What happens when my friend's diabetic kid experiences a crisis? People are dying right now not only because of COVID but because they can't get medical care.

 

A 4-5 year delay on my surgery would destroy me.

[showmethesnow]

Hadn't even considered this. Let us just say, this would not be a good thing. The benefits of social distancing would be drastically reduced. Maybe we should be hoping for a drought in our region?

https://www.foxnews.com/health/can-mosquitoes-spread-coronavirus

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Hadn't even considered this. Let us just say, this would not be a good thing. The benefits of social distancing would be drastically reduced. Maybe we should be hoping for a drought in our region?

https://www.foxnews.com/health/can-mosquitoes-spread-coronavirus

They are already vectors for plenty of other nasty shiit. COVID would probably be mild by comparison. I have to larvicide this time every year anyway. If I hit it at the right time(s) I wont see more than a few skeeters here and there through summer. It becomes intolerable by mid May if I don't.

My mosquitoes are all home grown. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Went to the local grocery store for the first time in 8 days. All staff (Bakery, Cashiers, Stockers, Maintenance, etc.) had surgical masks on and all were wearing gloves. They had also installed a plexiglass sheet up between the cashier and the credit card machine. They also roped off the area around the self service donuts and had signs that stated if you wanted any donuts to ask a bakery employee for assistance. I would say at least 95% of the shoppers had masks on and gloves. I didn't have a mask on but felt safe with all the shoppers and staff wearing one! A lot of changes in 8 days!!

Still no toilet paper, paper towels, or napkins. 

[jaydreb]

9 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Went to the local grocery store for the first time in 8 days. All staff (Bakery, Cashiers, Stockers, Maintenance, etc.) had surgical masks on and all were wearing gloves. They had also installed a plexiglass sheet up between the cashier and the credit card machine. They also roped off the area around the self service donuts and had signs that stated if you wanted any donuts to ask a bakery employee for assistance. I would say at least 95% of the shoppers had masks on and gloves. I didn't have a mask on but felt safe with all the shoppers and staff wearing one! A lot of changes in 8 days!!

Still no toilet paper, paper towels, or napkins. 

Crowded?  Decent supply of food? 

[MN Transplant]

16 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Crowded?  Decent supply of food? 

I went grocery shopping this afternoon.  Between Giant and Safeway I was able to get everything on my list except yeast.  Fleishmann's really has cornered that market and that is the only thing that has been absent every time.  In my experience so far, Target and BJs have been re-upping the TP supply more often.  I haven't seen any of that in the grocery stores.

[Chris78]

4 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

The biggest issue DCPS was/is having with this is not knowing when this is going to end.  At first they seemed to really believe the closure was only going to last 2 weeks and they haphazardly allowed teachers to do whatever in terms of schedule and didn't standardize anything in terms of learning platforms, amount of assignments, etc.  Teachers zoom sessions were conflicting and students were overwhelmed with the amount of work since no one was coordinating due dates or workloads or anything. DCPS also declared that anything that happened post-closure couldn't reduce a students grade, so any work during the quarantine is counted like extra credit.  I think now they are coming to terms with the fact that our year is likely over and we're adopting a district wide schedule which makes sense.  I'm not sure how the 4th quarter will look in terms of grading.  I don't think this experience will be anywhere near as good as actually physically going to school (obviously) but its the best we can do. 

Was wondering how they are going to handle grades. My 2 kids are in elementary school and the first week of distance learning has been really clunky.  Basically its been read this, answer these questions and post it on  google classroom. 

[ErinInTheSky]

The more I read the more I’m convinced we just pressed pause. We need to wait til we have the testing infrastructure and mask/glove/disinfectant supply chain Before we can open back up but it seems like a portion of the country egged on by the president doesn’t want to wait that long.

 

We will be right back here times in a few months if they open early.

 

I don’t have any answers. I think we are just screwed regardless.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

The more I read the more I’m convinced we just pressed pause. We need to wait til we have the testing infrastructure and mask/glove/disinfectant supply chain Before we can open back up but it seems like a portion of the country egged on by the president doesn’t want to wait that long.

 

We will be right back here times in a few months if they open early.

 

I don’t have any answers. I think we are just screwed regardless.

This is probably true, luckily the places with the worst outbreaks currently are all run by governors who seem to be cautious.  Wuhan just opened up today, but the amount of surveillance, monitoring, and contact tracing they can employ obviously isn’t feasible here.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This is probably true, luckily the places with the worst outbreaks currently are all run by governors who seem to be cautious.  Wuhan just opened up today, but the amount of surveillance, monitoring, and contact tracing they can employ obviously isn’t feasible here.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

If this is indeed my calculus, I need to plan to buckle down for a long time. Probably need to add to my supplies stockpile so that I have more than a couple months. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

3 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Crowded?  Decent supply of food? 

Decent amount of people but not to much. It is a pretty large store so it was easy to distance between people. Food supply was really good. The past couple weeks, it was hard to find spinach/salads but they were fully stocked this time. They had it all: Meats, Dairy, Canned Goods, Bread, Fruits, Vegetables, Frozen Stuff. They just didn't have any toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, or liquid soap. 

[poolz1]

4 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I went grocery shopping this afternoon.  Between Giant and Safeway I was able to get everything on my list except yeast.  Fleishmann's really has cornered that market and that is the only thing that has been absent every time.  In my experience so far, Target and BJs have been re-upping the TP supply more often.  I haven't seen any of that in the grocery stores.

Been trying to get yeast for 3-4 weeks and no luck.  Have a jar in the fridge but running low.....

No junk food is tougher than I thought.  We eat very little but enjoy a good steak and cheese from the local take out joint every now and then. Made our own the other eve...

Boom!

[Maestrobjwa]

9 hours ago, mappy said:

shes not a good teacher. weve had our issues with her over the course of the year. she doesn't reply to emails, shes horrible at schedules. and apparently, she texts a lot during class. 

last week mini-map wanted to play school. so we did. she gave us some art assignments (so cute) but while we were working she was on her play phone the whole time. I jokingly asked and she said "my teacher is on her phone all the time in class, so just following what i've seen"

unreal

Boooooooo....From what you describe, I can't help but wonder how much she really cares. Yeah Iike @psuhoffman said, I'd definitely call the school about her if you haven't already. There ain't no excuse for that kind of stuff, smh (is she a younger teacher?)

[snowfan]

Re: teachers....I would keep in mind that many of them are in the same boat as us. I'm home w my daughter working, on 4-6 conference calls a day, helping her w work, etc. My daughter's teacher is juggling her class of 10+ kids and her own 2 kids that are very young. Its hella not easy no matter what side of the fence youre on. None of this is ideal for any of us. 

[SlowerLowerDE]

You can make your own yeast starters from raisins or honey.  See YouTube on this.  It is easy and takes about 24 to 48 hours.

[showmethesnow]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-traces-found-in-massachusetts-wastewater-at-levels-far-higher-than-expected

Not that you can necessarily take this at face value or whether you can extrapolate these results for the whole US at this time but you can get a general idea that this could potentially drastically change the equation for how we respond going forward after this first wave for any possible future waves. As most of you probably know the coronavirus can be found in human waste. Evidently testing of sewage in a Mass. metropolitan area (the numbers and timing would strongly suggest Boston) in late March is showing over 5 times the concentrations of the virus in the sewage then would be expected with the cases that were positively confirmed at the time. Now this is somewhat of a leap (too many unknowns) but for arguments sake let's say we use this 5x's figure on the IHME projection of 3% infection rate after this wave. This would put us at an 15% infection rate nation wide, right in my range that I believed we would see for some time now. 

Now while many would shrug off 15% and say what's the big deal it doesn't change a thing, I myself would argue otherwise. As I have gone on about numerous times it really is just a numbers game. And the objective here is to slow the spread enough on any future waves that we reach a stage where we can contain any flareups keeping them small in scale vs. allowing them to spread widely and uncontrollably. And believe it or not just taking 15% of the US population out of the equation as possible hosts does a good job of moving us in that direction especially when you consider some things. 

What we have to consider are the numbers we actually see within the cities. As most have probably noticed the large uncontrollable out breaks have been concentrated on large metropolitan areas. They have been by far the biggest breeding grounds of this virus where the virus has quickly spread outward into the lesser populated regions. Take these large metropolitan ares out of the equation for any future waves and the dynamics of the virus drastically change. Now by far the highest infection rates are going to be found in these areas vs. the suburbs and rural areas. At this point the IHME is, I believe, projecting roughly an 8% infection rate for these densely populated regions. Now while it helps it still doesn't do near enough to slow the spread where we have any hope of controlling it. Any future waves will once again spread uncontrollably where we have no hope of controlling it and we are for the most part waiting for it to burn out. But... at some point we reach an infection rate that will be enough to slow the progress of the virus where we can contain any flareups keeping them much smaller in scope and more localized. As mentioned before I roughly estimate this threshold at roughly 35% (uncontrolled burns vs. containment). So in consideration of this lets look at what happens with our IHME projected 8% and then multiple it by 5. We are now looking at 40%, above my containment threshold. We can also possibly see this idea playing out in the suburbs as well. So though they will have a lower infection rate in those regions they will also have a lower threshold number they need to achieve considering their lower population density.

One last thought. If we are in fact seeing an infection rate of 5x's what we are currently believing this also would have dramatic impacts on the mortality rate. This would in fact put that rate down into the ballpark of the numbers I have been throwing out for over a month now of .75-1.25%. Well below the numbers that were originally being thrown out. Now all of the above is conjecture based on a lot of unknowns. But the one thing we can take away from it is there are strong indications now surfacing that we are seeing much higher rates then are currently believed. And believe it or not, though it may seem contradictory, it is exactly what we want to see for our prospects after this wave. It really would change the dynamics moving forward.

[showmethesnow]

Looking over comments recently I am not really sure how some can be arguing that we need to keep things shut down for months on end. Plain and simple, it just is nowhere feasible. We just can't do it. I know the arguments surrounding these thoughts revolve around the idea of it's lives vs. money. But really it is not. It is in actuality (lives vs. money+jobs+lives+economy+life quality). You can not just dismiss what a extended shutdown will mean and just try to frame it is just being about money. It isn't and it is nowhere near that case. 

Right now the government is trying its best to just keep everybody's heads above the water. That is what these stimulus packages are all about. But we have nowhere the money needed to do this for an extended period of time (months on end). We just don't. Now let's first consider job creators. These businesses have only limited ability to withstand periods of having no revenue coming in. The larger businesses will have the better ability to withstand longer periods vs. the smaller and the Ma and Pa's quite often are living month to month. Now as I said, the government has limited ability to infuse capital into the business sector to keep them afloat. So what we will eventually see (in fact are already seeing) as this shut down drags on is that the small Ma and Pa stores will begin to shut down, this will be then followed by the smaller businesses and then eventually the larger cooperations. What this means is that we will begin to lose jobs, slowly at first and then more rapidly as we progress.

Now let's look at a more focused level, Families. Again, the government is trying to keep their heads above the water. But once again there is a limited ability in this regards. Now consider this, the majority of Americans basically live paycheck to paycheck. An extended period of just weeks hurts them severely as they find themselves falling farther and farther into depth. Now what are months upon months going to do to their financial situation? ***Now some would argue that we need to see a suspension of all bills and loans. Now I am not going to break it all down as it gets complicated very quickly. So I will just say, yes would could do that. Unfortunately that would only buy some time and there is a very good possibility that we would come out in a worse position then if we had forgone that. Needless to say, I think that the Feds should leave their hands for the most part out of that possible quagmire and let the industries/businesses/utilities/banks/families/etc... deal with this at a more personal level***

So let's project what an extended period of shut down would actually mean when we come out of it. First innumerable jobs have been wiped off the map. Second, many families will be coming out in dire financial straits looking desperately for jobs. Many jobs of which no longer exist. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that is able to land a job you will find that most of your money is now going to bills/food/rent/necessities with little to none available to purchase consumer goods. So people no longer have the resources to throw into the consumer sector to stimulate the economy. Businesses don't make money so we once again see more businesses folding taking their jobs along with it. We would see a crashing of the system as we spiraled out of control.

Now I mentioned lives were part of the equation as well. Now what do you exactly think would happen to many of these individuals that are put into the above scenario?  A scenario that would make many feel totally helpless where their life has spun out of control and been destroyed? If you guessed suicides then you would be spot on. This is a very real concern for many that first have to deal with the shutdown itself and then the repercussions afterwards. And this doesn't even in the factor of what we would see as far as addiction rates.

Really when it comes down to it. Opening up the country again will be one of an balancing act where you have to fully understand the impacts we see on both sides of the equation. And you have to consider all the factors, not just some that fit your needs. Right now I am still sticking with my projection (currently 3 1//2 to  5 1/2 weeks max of 7 1/2) I have made over the last several weeks as to where we are making a strong move to once again open up the country. 

[H2O]

We’ve been through way worse and the economy came back. im tired of this “we have to go back” above all else attitude. 
 

You are dealing with something that cannot have dollar signs attached to it to quantify risk/reward. This is where we lose our humanity. I much rather have an economy that can be sustained because people are in good health than one constantly wracked with waves of sickness all because we opened too soon. 
 

Sorry but the fed and more will do what is needed to soften the blow for most people affected. And to be honest, if our economy is such a house of cards that it can’t recover from this then it was a sham economy to begin with and start from the ashes when it’s over. 
 

 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

We’ve been through way worse and the economy came back. im tired of this “we have to go back” above all else attitude. 
 

You are dealing with something that cannot have dollar signs attached to it to quantify risk/reward. This is where we lose our humanity. I much rather have an economy that can be sustained because people are in good health than one constantly wracked with waves of sickness all because we opened too soon. 
 

Sorry but the fed and more will do what is needed to soften the blow for most people affected. And to be honest, if our economy is such a house of cards that it can’t recover from this then it was a sham economy to begin with and start from the ashes when it’s over. 
 

 

So I am just putting $ signs to lives? So you would just totally dismiss the ruined lives and the suicides? They are irrelevant? And as far as the economy, I am not sure how many different styled economies could endure the stress ours is and will be put under. In fact ours is probably the best able to handle such a situation.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Second, many families will be coming out in dire financial straits looking desperately for jobs. Many jobs of which no longer exist. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that is able to land a job you will find that most of your money is now going to bills/food/rent/necessities with little to none available to purchase consumer goods. So people no longer have the resources to throw into the consumer sector to stimulate the economy. Businesses don't make money so we once again see more businesses folding taking their jobs along with it. We would see a crashing of the system as we spiraled out of control

I agree with you  showme  regarding the individual impact to many families.   

Yet I read this morning many professional economists expect GDP growth at 6 % the end of this year after a deep V shaped recession.  I don't buy that. A lot of uncertainty about the resurgence of COVID 19 in the Fall. There are many unknowns in my opinion.  Not to mention other economists are predicting near depression like GDP numbers into 2021. 

[showmethesnow]

56 minutes ago, frd said:

I agree with you  showme  regarding the individual impact to many families.   

Yet I read this morning many professional economists expect GDP growth at 6 % the end of this year after a deep V shaped recession.  I don't buy that. A lot of uncertainty about the resurgence of COVID 19 in the Fall. There are many unknowns in my opinion.  Not to mention other economists are predicting near depression like GDP numbers into 2021. 

Most of those projections are based off seeing our country transition out of the lock down in a few weeks. And if we do in fact do this I would tend to believe we see such a recovery. But if we are talking at the least another couple of months of status quo it will begin to start having serious impacts on our ability to recover. As I said above things will begin to spiral out of control. The far less rosier outcomes by some economists are probably based off this longer idea of a lockdown.

As far as what we have to deal with this Fall. I am the type of person that believes you have to deal with the crisis on hand before you start worrying about the next. Doesn't mean you don't prepare, just means you really need to take care of the business at hand before you move to the next crisis. And to be honest with you, the more I am seeing lately the more I am believing that any impact from a secondary wave will be far more muted then what we are currently seeing. Potentially much more so.

[mappy]

Hogan will be having a presser at 1230. WBAL should carry it live, for those who wanna tune in. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

We’ve been through way worse and the economy came back. im tired of this “we have to go back” above all else attitude. 
 

You are dealing with something that cannot have dollar signs attached to it to quantify risk/reward. This is where we lose our humanity. I much rather have an economy that can be sustained because people are in good health than one constantly wracked with waves of sickness all because we opened too soon. 
 

Sorry but the fed and more will do what is needed to soften the blow for most people affected. And to be honest, if our economy is such a house of cards that it can’t recover from this then it was a sham economy to begin with and start from the ashes when it’s over. 
 

 

And why is that?  What makes this different from many other communicable, or environmentally-acquired, diseases we risk exposure to in the course of our daily lives?  What about the risks of travel and other job hazards?  We can assign risk/reward to those, but not this?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Most of those projections are based off seeing our country transition out of the lock down in a few weeks. And if we do in fact do this I would tend to believe we see such a recovery. But if we are talking at the least another couple of months of status quo it will begin to start having serious impacts on our ability to recover. As I said above things will begin to spiral out of control. The far less rosier outcomes by some economists are probably based off this longer idea of a lockdown.

As far as what we have to deal with this Fall. I am the type of person that believes you have to deal with the crisis on hand before you start worrying about the next. Doesn't mean you don't prepare, just means you really need to take care of the business at hand before you move to the next crisis. And to be honest with you, the more I am seeing lately the more I am believing that any impact from a secondary wave will be far more muted then what we are currently seeing. Potentially much more so.

I think the way you are framing this is incorrect,  the way to fix the economy is to end the epidemic spread of covid-19.  Any attempt to open up for business while there is widespread sustained community transmission will ultimately do more harm than good to the economy.  As Anthony Fauci says the virus determines the timeline, not us. 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And why is that?  What makes this different from many other communicable, or environmentally-acquired, diseases we risk exposure to in the course of our daily lives?  What about the risks of travel and other job hazards?  We can assign risk/reward to those, but not this?

what specific risk exposures are you talking about regarding every day life that would compare to a highly contagious virus that is killing people? 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think the way you are framing this is incorrect,  the way to fix the economy is to end the epidemic spread of covid-19.  Any attempt to open up for business while there is widespread sustained community transmission will ultimately do more harm than good to the economy.  As Anthony Fauci says the virus determines the timeline, not us. 

this. its going to have to be a process to open things back up and attempt to get back to normal. but it wont be normal for a while. it is a marathon, not a sprint. you open everything back up at once and we will have another spike in cases and so on.

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think the way you are framing this is incorrect,  the way to fix the economy is to end the epidemic spread of covid-19.  Any attempt to open up for business while there is widespread sustained community transmission will ultimately do more harm than good to the economy.  As Anthony Fauci says the virus determines the timeline, not us. 

I never said to open the economy while there was still a wide spread of the virus. I have said and continue to say we need to take a balanced and measured approach considering both sides of the equation. And this will be determined by where the damage done by the cure is more then the damage done by the disease itself. Now people will have different ideas of where this balance is reached which is to be expected as they will put more weight on one side of the equation or the other.. But for those who are arguing we need everything shutdown until we see infection rates virtually at zero this is very unrealistic .As is the idea that we should open everything up now or even that we should have not shut down at all. Neither idea works/would have worked.

eta: I would also like to add we can not just open the country up at day one at full throttle. We need to need see incremental changes over time towards this goal. And these changes will involve many factors such as location, peak rate, etc...

[EastCoast NPZ]

 

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

what specific risk exposures are you talking about regarding every day life that would compare to a highly contagious virus that is killing people? 

Flus that kill 18000 people every year....SARS, MERS, etc.  There are many contagious diseases that kill many people every year.  This is worse than these, but is hardly our sole risk.  Yet, we continue to live our lives, because we deem the rewards worth the risk.  The calculus may change with this one, but to argue there is no calculus with a disease that has a mortality rate of less than 1% for those of healthy working age is a bit ridiculous. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Fact of the matter is, we are fully locked down right now and this virus is the leading cause of death in the United States while locked down.

 

It's folly to think we'll be able to go back to normal. We might try, because we're dumb like that sometimes, but it'll be pretty quickly realized if we do that trying to do that isn't going to work.