COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

Just now, ravensrule said:

LMFAO

hey friend, hope you've been well. i know i know, its soooo funny. but seriously, dont post that stuff.  

[ravensrule]

Just now, mappy said:

hey friend, hope you've been well. i know i know, its soooo funny. but seriously, dont post that stuff.  

Thank the lord i have been well. I hope you and your family are well and safe. Fyi i have been able to get plenty of toilet paper on Amazon and Walmart.com  if you keep checking. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Thank the lord i have been well. I hope you and your family are well and safe. Fyi i have been able to get plenty of toilet paper on Amazon and Walmart.com  if you keep checking. 

Glad you and the family are well. We are good too, healthy! And thanks for the information!

[Maestrobjwa]

So I'm wondering...when we will have a better idea of May. Even with the current modeling looking better...is that contingent on us staying shutdown through May as well?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I'm wondering...when we will have a better idea of May. Even with the current modeling looking better...is that contingent on us staying shutdown through May as well?

My guess is May is mostly toast. 

[H2O]

The concern now will be getting people to understand that even if numbers drop due to social distancing we have to keep doing that to not have a repeat spike and be back to square one.

[jaydreb]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I'm wondering...when we will have a better idea of May. Even with the current modeling looking better...is that contingent on us staying shutdown through May as well?

Depends on what you want to do.  They may loosen the stay at home order somewhat but still require social distancing.  

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

The concern now will be getting people to understand that even if numbers drop due to social distancing we have to keep doing that to not have a repeat spike and be back to square one.

yup. i dont see states lifting anything for another month. better to be safe than sorry

[ErinInTheSky]

Yup. We're bringing down the cases but the simple fact of the matter is, until we have a robust testing system, we can't open back up. There will likely be repeated shutdowns and quarantines for cities/states as clusters pop up again given that this disease has a 2 week incubation period and will spread asymptomatically. 

 

We're going to be doing some form of what we are doing right now for the next year at least.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yup. We're bringing down the cases but the simple fact of the matter is, until we have a robust testing system, we can't open back up. There will likely be repeated shutdowns and quarantines for cities/states as clusters pop up again given that this disease has a 2 week incubation period and will spread asymptomatically. 

 

We're going to be doing some form of what we are doing right now for the next year at least.

yup, i mean just look at today's numbers. 30% were tested in March. Now that could be literally last monday, March, or it could be 2 weeks ago March. Either way, the long lapse between testing and results doesnt help give a true sense of the outbreak. I can't see Hogan reopening anything any time soon

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, mappy said:

yup, i mean just look at today's numbers. 30% were tested in March. Now that could be literally last monday, March, or it could be 2 weeks ago March. Either way, the long lapse between testing and results doesnt help give a true sense of the outbreak. I can't see Hogan reopening anything any time soon

Life is going to be so weird for the next year or two and possibly for the rest of our lives. Like you couldn't pay me to go to a restaurant right now. I'm likely going to avoid them for quite a while. And I'm seriously considering just not returning my son to daycare. I have a work from job so it's fairly easy if I want to avoid it.

Movie theatres? I mean... I can't see that anytime soon.

I don't see big gatherings, festivals, fairs, etc or concerts through the summer, there will be too much a chance of a few asymptomatic people starting this whole damn thing over again.

 

Like... perhaps we'll be allowed out, but we'll all be wearing masks, there will be temperature checks everywhere, people will be social distancing 6 feet often, etc.

 

I realize that not everyone will care, but a lot of people will and just that will put a damper on any sort of return to normalcy until this damn vaccine happens.

[mappy]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Life is going to be so weird for the next year or two and possibly for the rest of our lives. Like you couldn't pay me to go to a restaurant right now. I'm likely going to avoid them for quite a while. And I'm seriously considering just not returning my son to daycare. I have a work from job so it's fairly easy if I want to avoid it.

Movie theatres? I mean... I can't see that anytime soon.

I don't see big gatherings, festivals, fairs, etc or concerts through the summer, there will be too much a chance of a few asymptomatic people starting this whole damn thing over again.

 

Like... perhaps we'll be allowed out, but we'll all be wearing masks, there will be temperature checks everywhere, people will be social distancing 6 feet often, etc.

 

I realize that not everyone will care, but a lot of people will and just that will put a damper on any sort of return to normalcy until this damn vaccine happens.

Oh yeah, i imagine most will act differently after this. But I am still pretty surprised by older folks lackadaisical approach. While at the store this morning, about 9 out 10 had masks on. Older men, did not. Saw one dad with his two kids... no PPE of any sort for them. 

Personally, we have kept our kid home. She hasn't left the house in 3 weeks (week 1 we went to the trail a few times but then it got crowded). We only leave when we need to go to the store, otherwise we aren't going anywhere. And I have no plans to go anywhere until schools reopen. Hogan won't send kids back to school if its not safe, even just a little bit. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Life is going to be so weird for the next year or two and possibly for the rest of our lives. Like you couldn't pay me to go to a restaurant right now. I'm likely going to avoid them for quite a while. And I'm seriously considering just not returning my son to daycare. I have a work from job so it's fairly easy if I want to avoid it.

Movie theatres? I mean... I can't see that anytime soon.

I don't see big gatherings, festivals, fairs, etc or concerts through the summer, there will be too much a chance of a few asymptomatic people starting this whole damn thing over again.

 

Like... perhaps we'll be allowed out, but we'll all be wearing masks, there will be temperature checks everywhere, people will be social distancing 6 feet often, etc.

 

I realize that not everyone will care, but a lot of people will and just that will put a damper on any sort of return to normalcy until this damn vaccine happens.

I really doubt it.  Once the first football game kicks off this autumn everyone will forget this even happened.  We won't learn from anything in this country and when the next pandemic happens in another decade or so, we'll be back at square one. 

[H2O]

14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Life is going to be so weird for the next year or two and possibly for the rest of our lives. Like you couldn't pay me to go to a restaurant right now. I'm likely going to avoid them for quite a while. And I'm seriously considering just not returning my son to daycare. I have a work from job so it's fairly easy if I want to avoid it.

Movie theatres? I mean... I can't see that anytime soon.

I don't see big gatherings, festivals, fairs, etc or concerts through the summer, there will be too much a chance of a few asymptomatic people starting this whole damn thing over again.

 

Like... perhaps we'll be allowed out, but we'll all be wearing masks, there will be temperature checks everywhere, people will be social distancing 6 feet often, etc.

 

I realize that not everyone will care, but a lot of people will and just that will put a damper on any sort of return to normalcy until this damn vaccine happens.

My one big hope that will come from this is a much better sick leave policy for every worker no matter what they do.  Part of the problem is how insistent our culture is to work when sick and not stay at home.  Some have no choice because of lack of paid sick leave.  This epidemic has shown that it takes very little to spread from one to many.  As a business, especially food related, it should make you rethink  an employee sick leave policy.  Losing customers because you didn't let John or Juan stay home with a fever has got to be more expensive than paying the guy to sit at home until he is better.

[ErinInTheSky]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I really doubt it.  Once the first football game kicks off this autumn everyone will forget this even happened.  We won't learn from anything in this country and when the next pandemic happens in another decade or so, we'll be back at square one. 

If that happens then we will just all shut down again. So like it will either happen because we self police and are slow to return to normal or it will happen because the virus runs rampant again.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

If that happens then we will just all shut down again. So like it will either happen because we self police and are slow to return to normal or it will happen because the virus runs rampant again.

I'm not sure the economic folks are going to allow that in the future.  There's been an incredible push back from the business community about this and the field I work in juggles this with every event.  Some of the push back is from sectors of the economy that cannot or choose not to adjust to a modified service delivery model.  It dumbfounds me to see employers belly ache they cannot either give some medical leave to sick employees or shift to online or slightly distanced delivery of goods to the customer.  Other employers, like HEB grocery, adjusted to this event overnight and have continued their front facing operations without much negative impact.  

[ErinInTheSky]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm not sure the economic folks are going to allow that in the future.  There's been an incredible push back from the business community about this and the field I work in juggles this with every event.  Some of the push back is from sectors of the economy that cannot or choose not to adjust to a modified service delivery model.  It dumbfounds me to see employers belly ache they cannot either give some medical leave to sick employees or shift to online or slightly distanced delivery of goods to the customer.  Other employers, like HEB grocery, adjusted to this event overnight and have continued their front facing operations without much negative impact.  

It doesn't matter if they allow it or not. People won't go to work or engage in economic activity if bodies start piling up.

[ErinInTheSky]

Bill Gates illustrates what I'm trying to say best with a recent interview with this quote:

 

“There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts,’”

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It doesn't matter if they allow it or not. People won't go to work or engage in economic activity if bodies start piling up.

IMO, until there is broader acceptance of mitigation efforts such as sick leave for employees, regardless of the size of a company, and sustained funding of public health efforts like biosurveillance and rapid testing, this will continue. 

 

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, until there is broader acceptance of mitigation efforts such as sick leave for employees, ragardless of the size of a company, and sustained funding of public health efforts like biosurveillance and rapid testing, this will continue. 

Oh absolutely. This is going to continue until we have a vaccine. I think it's pie in the sky to think that even if the government opens things up, that everyone will act like things are opened up. When they opened things up  in Wuhan, people are STILL staying inside, businesses there are not operating at full capacity nearly. And that's with the disease completely eradicated in China.

 

With the disease still active, spreading? Yeah, good luck. No arbitrary "we'll open up" date is ever going to work. Else we'll see deaths come back to the 2000-3000/day range, and if we refuse to shut down then, the sky is the limit. This thing will kill with no regard.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Oh absolutely. This is going to continue until we have a vaccine. I think it's pie in the sky to think that even if the government opens things up, that everyone will act like things are opened up. When they opened things up  in Wuhan, people are STILL staying inside, businesses there are not operating at full capacity nearly. And that's with the disease completely eradicated in China.

 

With the disease still active, spreading? Yeah, good luck. No arbitrary "we'll open up" date is ever going to work. Else we'll see deaths come back to the 2000-3000/day range, and if we refuse to shut down then, the sky is the limit. This thing will kill with no regard.

You'll have to excuse me with the overly pessimistic posts.  My viewpoint is framed through my experience of looking at events that occur with a regular frequency (hurricanes, cyber, public health, etc.) and reading the after action reports.  In this country, we consistently fail to adapt and the same 5 or 6 pitfalls catch us every time, yet we act like it's a shocker both within the public safety realm and outside it, when this happens.  Our country could be vastly more efficient and resilient to disasters if we embraced a more scientific, long term view of how to adapt to a changing world.  Instead we focus so much on short term gain and response in this country.  Pandemics are one of the few purely human caused and solved disasters in this world which puts our failures or successes squared on our shoulders.  

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You'll have to excuse me with the overly pessimistic posts.  My viewpoint is framed through my experience of looking at events that occur with a regular frequency (hurricanes, cyber, public health, etc.) and reading the after action reports.  In this country, we consistently fail to adapt and the same 5 or 6 pitfalls catch us every time, yet we act like it's a shocker both within the public safety realm and outside it, when this happens.  Our country could be vastly more efficient and resilient to disasters if we embraced a more scientific, long term view of how to adapt to a changing world.  Instead we focus so much on short term gain and response in this country.  Pandemics are one of the few purely human caused and solved disasters in this world which puts our failures or successes squared on our shoulders.  

It's OK to be realistic. I'm with you. I'm perfectly fine shut in for a while until our country develops a strong, robust, South Korea like plan with extreme testing, contact tracing, plans for reignition of quarantines. Basically we need a real public health system. Right now we have a patchwork of different states doing different things with no centralized guidance.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I completely disagree. There’s an entire generation of people seeing the starkest example in a century of awful leadership (not just the president for the record). I think (and hope) young people are learning how not to govern. 

I hope I'm wrong, but everyone was saying how things would change after 9/11, Katrina, the 2011 tsunami, Northridge earthquake and here we are today.

[Vice-Regent]

31 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Bill Gates illustrates what I'm trying to say best with a recent interview with this quote:

 

“There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts,’”

Wuhan needed a 76-day lock-down to achieve results. That's about where we should be aiming for but it would cripple the economy beyond repair. That's why we must freeze the economy instead of bleeding it out.

It's one thing to lock-down a city and another to lock-down a country.

[ErinInTheSky]

10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Wuhan needed a 76-day lock-down to achieve results. That's about where we should be aiming for but it would cripple the economy beyond repair. That's why we must freeze the economy instead of bleeding it out.

It's one thing to lock-down a city and another to lock-down a country.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, we really have no choice. We either lock down and it's bad, or we open up and it's worse both economically and death toll wise.

 

Things shut down when the hospital system fails and bodies start piling up. 

 

The only 3rd way is a South Korea/Japan/China/Singapore/Israel solution:

- Test EVERYONE. You have a slight cough, you get tested. Drive throughs everywhere.

- Temperature checks at all public buildings

- Massive state surveillance that way all who an infected person comes into contact with are notified

- Massive adoption of face masks, mandatory any time you're outdoors.

- Massive disinfection efforts in all public spaces.

 

So I mean... we're left with 3 options that suck. 

[Vice-Regent]

18 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I guess what I'm trying to say is, we really have no choice. We either lock down and it's bad, or we open up and it's worse both economically and death toll wise.

 

Things shut down when the hospital system fails and bodies start piling up. 

 

The only 3rd way is a South Korea/Japan/China/Singapore/Israel solution:

- Test EVERYONE. You have a slight cough, you get tested. Drive throughs everywhere.

- Temperature checks at all public buildings

- Massive state surveillance that way all who an infected person comes into contact with are notified

- Massive adoption of face masks, mandatory any time you're outdoors.

- Massive disinfection efforts in all public spaces.

 

So I mean... we're left with 3 options that suck. 

There is a 4th option .... live from home and grow a victory garden. That's how we will be living in 30 years so why not start now?

Our main problem is that our cities are not setup to transition to this kind of system.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

There is a 4th option .... live from home and grow a victory garden. That's how we will be living in 30 years so why not start now?

I'm kinda doing this right now haha.

[EastCoast NPZ]

50 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It doesn't matter if they allow it or not. People won't go to work or engage in economic activity if bodies start piling up.

Have you been to Lowes recently?

[Inverted_Trough]

The latest IME model still assumes social distancing until May 31st.  Current federal guidance only extends until April 30th.  I think most states will likely extend through the end of May even if the federal guidance relaxes a bit.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Have you been to Lowes recently?

Right now, bodies are not piling up and we aren't even at peak death. Unrestricted spread of coronavirus is magnitudes worse than we are currently experiencing.