SnowGolfBro Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, wxtrix said: social distancing was done in 1918. the proven science about flattening the curve was first published in 2007. flattening the curve, along with widespread testing and contact tracing was done in Mexico in 2009 for a short while (once it was determined that H1N1 was not more lethal than seasonal influenza). flattening/testing/tracing have been successful in 2020 in other countries. why are you posting lies? You have extremely poor reading comprehension. I mean really bad for such a prick on the subject. Please read my post again and identify the “lie”. I posted an opinion. And social distancing is not equal to shut downs and stay home orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I don’t even understand what all the arguing is about anymore. It looks like most states, including VA and possibly MD, will be doing some kind of soft reopening in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I don’t even understand what all the arguing is about anymore. It looks like most states, including VA and possibly MD, will be doing some kind of soft reopening in the next few weeks. Slowly yes. But some in here want everything open now no matter what the cost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Slowly yes. But some in here want everything open now no matter what the cost Thanks. I’m having a hard time deciphering what specifically some people (on both sides of the debate) want to have happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Reopening is happening in several states but I have yet to see any evidence that it's resulting in significant economic activity, flooding of stores, bars, etc. Most places are staying closed, and even places that are opening are barely seeing any customers. I think people simply don't feel safe engaging in economic activity during a panemic. Some do for sure, but the polls generally show about 60-80% of people have some degree of avoidance planned. What I am waiting for is schools and daycares to open. We're going to have a real reckoning then. Do teachers, especially older ones, show up? Do parents feel comfortable sending their kids? Do daycares see enrollment drop, thus making it less likely to be able to operate with staff and building costs? It's going to be a very interesting next few months. If my daycare opens in a week or two, I seriously would consider not sending my son and just pulling him. I'm OK with outside play and even a few small play dates, but I'm not comfortable sending him into a building with 50 other kids, parents in and out, teachers, etc. They're already pitri dishes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: These people are insane. Absolutely terrible, and crazy. But if I had to guess where something like that would happen, Flint MI would be on the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just to add, one thing that would make me reconsider my position is if testing becomes widespread in Maryland, and all people can get tested and contact traced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 That one model that came out with the huge death number initially then backed way off is now back to the huge number again. This is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 4 hours ago, PhineasC said: Says the people working from home in their PJs ordering from DoorDash and Amazon... OK. Fun "sabbatical" you all are having, I'm sure. There are lots of things you could advocate for to help small businesses other than simply open up. Again you paint everything into a binary choice. You even go out of your way to avoid middle ground measures. 4 hours ago, Yeoman said: I know.. hard to beat sitting at home collecting checks while others struggle to put food on the table and pay the rent. See above 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: OK, we gonna go there? I could give you a suggestion where you should go! 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Nah, we are done. You just couldn't help yourself, trash. Why you getting all emotional??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Absolutely terrible, and crazy. But if I had to guess where something like that would happen, Flint MI would be on the list What's that supposed to mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Could be our first sub 1,000 death day in a looooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, wxtrix said: why Flint? 3 minutes ago, yoda said: What's that supposed to mean? It’s one of the poorest cities in America...high crime rate, etc. Baltimore would be on the list too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Could be our first sub 1,000 death day in a looooong time. First time since March 30th. Mission Accomplished. Time to #openitup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That one model that came out with the huge death number initially then backed way off is now back to the huge number again. This is nuts The new report looks much more realistic. The old version had deaths tailing off to near zero by June 1, which was never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Reopening is happening in several states but I have yet to see any evidence that it's resulting in significant economic activity, flooding of stores, bars, etc. Most places are staying closed, and even places that are opening are barely seeing any customers. I think people simply don't feel safe engaging in economic activity during a panemic. Some do for sure, but the polls generally show about 60-80% of people have some degree of avoidance planned. Make sense. I guess the predictions of people making a mad dash for Applebees after their tyrannical government allowed them to leave their house never materialized. At this point, opening things up is a paper exercise. There is pent-up demand for sitting on a beach, but not sitting at a restaurant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They made a big upgrade to the model. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates Interesting. It doesn’t seem to me like we’d get to 3,000 deaths a day if we keep up the mitigation but I’m just spitballing obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Just now, Inverted_Trough said: Make sense. I guess the predictions of people making a mad dash for Applebees after their tyrannical government allowed them to leave their house never materialized. At this point, opening things up is a paper exercise. There is pent-up demand for sitting on a beach, but not sitting at a restaurant. Yeah, I think people feel a lot more comfortable outside (for whatever it's worth). I hope to god the people here who keep saying "I think outside is fine" are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, wxtrix said: social distancing was done in 1918. the proven science about flattening the curve was first published in 2007. flattening the curve, along with widespread testing and contact tracing was done in Mexico in 2009 for a short while (once it was determined that H1N1 was not more lethal than seasonal influenza). flattening/testing/tracing have been successful in 2020 in other countries. why are you posting lies? Exactly. There's the somewhat "famous" plot of data from 1918, showing cases in Philadelphia vs. St. Louis. It's clear what happened doing nothing vs. some measure of lock-down. This is not something new, nor is it some conspiracy. Quarantines have been around since...forever? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Exactly. There's the somewhat "famous" plot of data from 1918, showing cases in Philadelphia vs. St. Louis. It's clear what happened doing nothing vs. some measure of lock-down. This is not something new, nor is it some conspiracy. Quarantines have been around since...forever? It’s another excuse for people to exercise what they think of as “freedom” which really just means acting like a toddler and shirking their responsibilities as citizens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Yeah, I think people feel a lot more comfortable outside (for whatever it's worth). I hope to god the people here who keep saying "I think outside is fine" are right. I've gone out just for some walks or occasional bike rides. Or to go take photos (I'm not far from the Audubon nature center). But I'm pretty well by myself, not really around anyone unless I pass by them. And for the most part, people tend to "cut a swath" around others. But I'm not going to play sports or be in a large group. I play in an alumni softball league, have for the past many summers (until I broke a finger during a game last July, dammit!). I don't think we'll be playing this year at all, or if so, it will only be a handful of games. They have a big tournament every August which is a lot of fun and quite the event...I suspect that won't be happening either. It sucks, but that's how it is and I cannot blame them if they decide to essentially cancel this year. (Side note: it doubly sucks for me, because I was unable to play in last year's tournament due to said broken finger, LOL!! I still went to enjoy the festivities and take pictures...and partake of the food and beer...however!). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: That one model that came out with the huge death number initially then backed way off is now back to the huge number again. This is nuts The methodology for the projections (IHME model) included a continuation of widespread social distancing through August 1. Clearly that aspect has changed with the premature 'reopening' in many places. Model output adjusts to changes in input data. And ofc they are still mostly wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I think at this point, the testing and tracing capacity is really the remaining hope to control things nationally. I hope that places that have partially opened up will at least evaluate where things stand. But probably will be early or mid June before there’s any noticeable trend. Seems the country is just going to accept 1-3K deaths per day. Got to keep increasing testing capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, wxtrix said: dude... I don’t want to derail the thread here too bad...and I know your argument probably is it could happen anywhere. Sure, of course. But poverty and high crime rate go hand in hand. If I had a choice to live in Flint MI or Columbia MD, id chose Columbia every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Interesting. It doesn’t seem to me like we’d get to 3,000 deaths a day if we keep up the mitigation but I’m just spitballing obviously. Ack! Don't spit-ball at a time like this--that's unsanitary (unsanitary pre-pandemic...downright radio-active waste during it!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I've gone out just for some walks or occasional bike rides. Or to go take photos (I'm not far from the Audubon nature center). But I'm pretty well by myself, not really around anyone unless I pass by them. And for the most part, people tend to "cut a swath" around others. But I'm not going to play sports or be in a large group. I play in an alumni softball league, have for the past many summers (until I broke a finger during a game last July, dammit!). I don't think we'll be playing this year at all, or if so, it will only be a handful of games. They have a big tournament every August which is a lot of fun and quite the event...I suspect that won't be happening either. It sucks, but that's how it is and I cannot blame them if they decide to essentially cancel this year. (Side note: it doubly sucks for me, because I was unable to play in last year's tournament due to said broken finger, LOL!! I still went to enjoy the festivities and take pictures...and partake of the food and beer...however!). Sorry. Let me refine that because I’m outside plenty. I hope the people who think it’s fine to be 6 feel away from others or closer outside are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: because black people are inherently more violent? Did I even mention race? I talked about poverty levels and and high crime. It’s not a secret that higher crime is linked to High poverty levels. If you want to draw other conclusions from that feel free. Is it racist to want to live in a safe city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2020 Author Share Posted May 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, wxtrix said: because black people are inherently more violent? Despite what you may have thought he meant, he never mentioned race. I think we can end this topic though and move on. It’s not going to go anywhere fun 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: They made a big upgrade to the model. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates The IHME has been about as accurate as the GFS was for Joaquin IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: It’s another excuse for people to exercise what they think of as “freedom” which really just means acting like a toddler and shirking their responsibilities as citizens. But haircuts, tattoos, and nails are important too. Worth the risk. Liberate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2020 Author Share Posted May 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, wxtrix said: what he posted is not supported by facts. And you posted a follow up with support to say he was factual incorrect. However only you mentioned race. regardless, it’s done. Move on please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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