COVID-19 Talk

[Inverted_Trough]

South Korea, Vietnam, China, New Zealand and Australia have essentially squashed this virus for the moment.  Very few cases and most of those cases are imported.  Vietnam hasn't even recorded a single COVID death which is remarkable considering their population is nearly 100 million people.

Germany is well on its way to squashing it.  They've seen 27 consecutive days of a steep decline in active cases.

Italy and Spain has seen seen a decline in active cases for about ten consecutive days (not as steep as Germany but a definite downward trend).  Turkey, Iran and Denmark are similar.

US and UK appear to be past their peak, but still struggling.

Brazil and Russia appear to be in the worst of it. (though Russia's death rate is quite low)

The conclusion is that we either need more time, or we suck at public health.  We spent much of the 20th century teaching the world about good public health, so it'd be pretty disappointing to know that others execute it better than we do.

[ErinInTheSky]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do think there is some evidence that this could possibly be handled in a less restrictive way. Some version of common sense social distancing and a plan to accommodate the high risk populations combined with testing/tracing and a plan to quickly mitigate hot spots that flare up. 

However...that isn’t the conversation happening here or what the people showing up at state houses with guns are advocating for.  In some cases they are going out of their way to say no to some reasonable less restrictive measures for no logical reason. They are a combination of “you can’t tell me what to do” libertarians and “this is a hoax” conspiracy nuts. 

There are rational moderates on both sides that should be having a legit discussion about adapting our strategy as evidence comes in and adjusting over time. We probably can create an effective least restrictive policy if our government wasn’t the mess that it is right now.  But I think most of those people have checked out of these debates frustrated by the way the two extreme polar opposites are dominating the narrative. 

Yeah. I hear people talking about "help out with the high risk people and make sure to ensure they are taken care of"

 

Then the actual state reopenings are basically like "if you are at high risk and don't show up to work, we'll consider that voluntary quit and drop you from unemployment."

 

Until you can adequately ensure that high risk people aren't forced to show up to work or be fired, then it's lip service at best.

[ErinInTheSky]

13 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

South Korea, Vietnam, China, New Zealand and Australia have essentially squashed this virus for the moment.  Very few cases and most of those cases are imported.  Vietnam hasn't even recorded a single COVID death which is remarkable considering their population is nearly 100 million people.

Germany is well on its way to squashing it.  They've seen 27 consecutive days of a steep decline in active cases.

Italy and Spain has seen seen a decline in active cases for about ten consecutive days (not as steep as Germany but a definite downward trend).  Turkey, Iran and Denmark are similar.

US and UK appear to be past their peak, but still struggling.

Brazil and Russia appear to be in the worst of it. (though Russia's death rate is quite low)

The conclusion is that we either need more time, or we suck at public health.  We spent much of the 20th century teaching the world about good public health, so it'd be pretty disappointing to know that others execute it better than we do.

What d they all have in common...

Test. Trace. Isolate.

 

3 words for being good at this.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

South Korea, Vietnam, China, New Zealand and Australia have essentially squashed this virus for the moment.  Very few cases and most of those cases are imported.  Vietnam hasn't even recorded a single COVID death which is remarkable considering their population is nearly 100 million people.

Germany is well on its way to squashing it.  They've seen 27 consecutive days of a steep decline in active cases.

Italy and Spain has seen seen a decline in active cases for about ten consecutive days (not as steep as Germany but a definite downward trend).  Turkey, Iran and Denmark are similar.

US and UK appear to be past their peak, but still struggling.

Brazil and Russia appear to be in the worst of it. (though Russia's death rate is quite low)

The conclusion is that we either need more time, or we suck at public health.  We spent much of the 20th century teaching the world about good public health, so it'd be pretty disappointing to know that others execute it better than we do.

Not all data is of equal quality. Vietnam certainly has had a death from COVID-19. That should be obvious.

China's data is total bunk and shouldn't be believed by anyone.

New Zealand and Australia are islands that are very difficult to reach. It's easy to cut off imported cases there. Australia also has a very low population density and it has been summer into early fall there -- not peak season for coronaviruses.

Germany is probably the most reliable case to look at.

The US should not be compared to individual European countries. Need to compare the EU to the US to get a better picture. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

What d they all have in common...

Test. Trace. Isolate.

 

3 words for being good at this.

Comparing the entire United States to individual tiny countries is silly. South Korea has one land border and it is the most heavily fortified in the world. That is nothing like here. Vietnam is still under communist rule. Of course they have had deaths from this. If you want to do that, compare Hawaii to Germany or Washington State to Germany.

China's data is crap and their plan of containment involves disappearing doctors who speak out, so not sure they should be a model.

[Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean you do know what the incubation period is? It would actually take time to see an uptick. 

I am not completely convinced either that we will see a big surge in the state's opening up. Idk. We'll see how important personal risk aversion compared to government measures. We also might be just on the tail end of this disease wave as there could at least be a partial seasonality component. 

Somebody tell mother nature that it is fooking May

Good point about people having personal risk aversion.  Not everybody is going to rush out right away as places reopen.  But using my state of Indiana as an example... almost all of the state minus a couple hot spots starts opening on May 4, and then those hot spots can start opening May 11.  The people that do decide to go out probably aren't going to be planning an outdoor picnic on some of these days.  So where will they end up?  The malls and other retail stores that will be opening up for the first time in several weeks.  There is supposed to be a limit on capacity so hopefully that will be enforced. 

[psuhoffman]

@PhineasC let’s focus on one specific thing. What do you think the policy should be for high risk populations with medical conditions when we reopen? 

[Inverted_Trough]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Not all data is of equal quality. Vietnam certainly has had a death from COVID-19. That should be obvious.

 

We can't trust Communist data.  Got it.

 

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

China's data is total bunk and shouldn't be believed by anyone.

 

We can't trust Communist data.  Got it.

[PhineasC]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@PhineasC let’s focus on one specific thing. What do you think the policy should be for high risk populations with medical conditions when we reopen? 

Personal choice, but if they do choose to stay home, then we should spend our money beefing up the unemployment system (although many of them are retired already) and ensure they still have a steady supply of food, medicine, etc. that can be delivered. I think this is a pretty narrow subset of people. Those 75+ with underlying conditions (the biggest risk group by far) are certainly not working and frequently home-bound anyway.

[PhineasC]

But, honestly, I think one of the biggest groups that will loudly demand continued social distancing and shutdowns are the teacher's unions, not the vulnerable seniors. Teachers will not want to go back in the fall, and if they do it will be pretty ridiculous, with tiny class sizes, shifted schedules, and no recess. If a school finds a suspected case of COVID-19, the entire school will need to shutdown for two weeks. Teachers will strike unless they get PPE and students are required to wear masks. There will be news reports of kids getting suspended for hugging a friend. Over the summer, this is going to become the touchpoint of the debate over this virus. That, and daycares.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

We can't trust Communist data.  Got it.

 

We can't trust Communist data.  Got it.

Do you think China is being honest here? Really?

And Vietnam probably doesn't have the health infrastructure or the honesty at the national level to accurately report. You really think they have had zero deaths? Really?

[forkyfork]

wahhh i'm stuck at home with people i don't love

[North Balti Zen]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

But, honestly, I think one of the biggest groups that will loudly demand continued social distancing and shutdowns are the teacher's unions, not the vulnerable seniors. Teachers will not want to go back in the fall, and if they do it will be pretty ridiculous, with tiny class sizes, shifted schedules, and no recess. If a school finds a suspected case of COVID-19, the entire school will need to shutdown for two weeks. Teachers will strike unless they get PPE and students are required to wear masks. There will be news reports of kids getting suspended for hugging a friend. Over the summer, this is going to become the touchpoint of the debate over this virus. That, and daycares.

This just isn’t true. I am married to a teacher and you are just making shit up again. Teaching remotely is a nightmare, they all want to go back. You just throw out bullshit right wing talking points from Fox News like it is something that is based in reality. Stop it.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

This just isn’t true. I am married to a teacher and you are just making shit up again. You just throw out bullshit right wing talking points from Fox News like it is something that is based in reality. Stop it.

You think teachers will go back in the fall with no demand for PPE, social distancing, adjusted schedules, etc.? OK...

If that's the case, why not send the kids back now? Nothing will have changed in terms of risk by late August.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You think teachers will go back in the fall with no demand for PPE, social distancing, adjusted schedules, etc.? OK...

If that's the case, why not send the kids back now? Nothing will have changed in terms of risk by late August.

Why would nothing have changed? I can think of a lot of reasons why the risk could be lower in August.  Continued impact of social distancing, possible effects of warmers temperatures, more widespread testing and contact tracing. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Why would nothing have changed? I can think of a lot of reasons why the risk could be lower in August.  Continued impact of social distancing, possible effects of warmers temperatures, more widespread testing and contact tracing. 

We will not have South Korea style test and trace here in August, IMO. Maybe in select cities, like 5G cell service...

The "continued impact of social distancing" has nothing to do with schools, unless you agree with my post that when the schools reopen it will be radically different, with mandatory masks, shifted schedules, and no social interaction.

Warmer temps are a question, but probably offset with school being a closed, indoors environment where we know COVID spreads best. Plus, by late September the weather in many places in the US is just like it is now.

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Why would nothing have changed? I can think of a lot of reasons why the risk could be lower in August.  Continued impact of social distancing, possible effects of warmers temperatures, more widespread testing and contact tracing. 

It seems to me Phin is referring to the teachers unions NOT individual teachers.  I have yet to see anyone point to a report of a major teachers union insist we get the kids back to school as soon as possible.  Sending the kids back to school with social distancing, masks, no recess, impossibly small class sizes etc is not a realistic possibility in my opinion.

[dailylurker]

I guess contact tracing doesn't matter when you're just a peasant that works in a FedEx facility with over 200. At least 30 that were exposed to someone that tested positive 7 days ago. Nope. Not a peep from the CDC or lord Hogan. Business as usual Monday morning. Hopefully we don't get a big outbreak this week the the processing plants have. I hope you fokes appreciate the people delivering your stuff. We're risking our asses to get it out there. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We will not have South Korea style test and trace here in August, IMO. Maybe in select cities, like 5G cell service...

The "continued impact of social distancing" has nothing to do with schools, unless you agree with my post that when the schools reopen it will be radically different, with mandatory masks, shifted schedules, and no social interaction.

Warmer temps are a question, but probably offset with school being a closed, indoors environment where we know COVID spreads best. Plus, by late September the weather in many places in the US is just like it is now.

I do agree schools will probably make some changes and unions will probably push for protections.  I’m guessing you’re against that?

[Inverted_Trough]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Do you think China is being honest here? Really?

And Vietnam probably doesn't have the health infrastructure or the honesty at the national level to accurately report. You really think they have had zero deaths? Really?

I think back in January and February, China was dishonest about many things.  It appears the local government in Wuhan tried to hide things from Beijing, and likewise China misled the WHO (whether it was because they wanted to save face, or they didn't want external scrutiny, or they were hiding something - I don't know.  I'm not interested in political conspiracy theories.).  And I'm sure they under-counted back then too. 

But I'm only looking at their current daily numbers.  They may not be exactly correct but I think they''re within an order of magnitude, i.e. they seem to have it under control currently (though that doesn't mean it won't come back).  I'm sure Vietnam has had a few deaths, but whether it's zero or just a handful, they don't seem to have a big outbreak there.  They took very early steps at containment.  The CDC believes the Vietnamese numbers so I'll defer to them.

Yes, there could be issues with data quality and data sources.  But it's also possible that they're just doing a better job at basic public health right now.  

[PhineasC]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I guess contact tracing doesn't matter when you're just a peasant that works in a FedEx facility with over 200 people and at least 30 that were exposed to someone that tested positive 7 days ago. Nope. Not a peep from the CDC or lord Hogan. Business as usual Monday morning. Hopefully we don't get a big outbreak this week the the processing plants have. I hope you fokes appreciate the people delivering your stuff. We're risking our asses to get it out there. 

You are part of the "essential" class that is expected to keep working no matter what while the #StayAtHome crowd sits at home ordering DoorDash food, buying shit from Jeff Bezos, and drinking box wine while virtue signaling on the Internet. You know, taking a "sabbatical" to "stay safe."

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I do agree schools will probably make some changes and unions will probably push for protections.  I’m guessing you’re against that?

I'm not against that, I was just pointing out that it will happen and become a new source of public angst over the summer. My wife and I are looking at homeschooling for a while because we believe that even if schools reopen in the fall, the kids will not be allowed to play together and interact and we will end up carrying a lot of the teaching load anyway. There is no denying teachers unions are powerful, especially in blue states that still have tight lockdowns and show no signs of easing. They will get what they want in terms of adjustments to the schools.

[Inverted_Trough]

I read somewhere that 30% of teachers are over 50.  So I don't really blame them.  The 50-65 demographic has a significant risk with this virus too.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You are part of the "essential" class that is expected to keep working no matter what while the #StayAtHome crowd sits at home ordering DoorDash food, buying shit from Jeff Bezos, and drinking box wine while virtue signaling on the Internet. You know, taking a "sabbatical" to "stay safe."

 

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I guess contact tracing doesn't matter when you're just a peasant that works in a FedEx facility with over 200. At least 30 that were exposed to someone that tested positive 7 days ago. Nope. Not a peep from the CDC or lord Hogan. Business as usual Monday morning. Hopefully we don't get a big outbreak this week the the processing plants have. I hope you fokes appreciate the people delivering your stuff. We're risking our asses to get it out there. 

This is why not making liability protection for companies a number 1 priority is a good idea.  If you remove the liability of having safe work environments employers will have no motivation to deal with situations like this. 

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It seems to me Phin is referring to the teachers unions NOT individual teachers.  I have yet to see anyone point to a report of a major teachers union insist we get the kids back to school as soon as possible.  Sending the kids back to school with social distancing, masks, no recess, impossibly small class sizes etc is not a realistic possibility in my opinion.

Yes, the teachers unions in many states are definitely not representative of the opinions of individual teachers. That was part of my point. I'm sure many teachers miss the kids and the interaction and would go back to teach if allowed.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

 

This is why not making liability protection for companies a number 1 priority is a good idea.  If you remove the liability of having safe work environments employers will have no motivation to deal with situations like this. 

If FedEx and Amazon workers are shut down, the shut down for the rest of us would turn from bad to horrific. The sad fact is the current lockdowns only work because FedEx and Amazon (and places like them) are still humming along. So be careful demanding more regulations on businesses. These businesses are the only lifeline making this whole scheme work at all.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If FedEx and Amazon workers are shut down, the shut down for the rest of us would turn from bad to horrific. The sad fact is the current lockdowns only work because FedEx and Amazon (and places like them) are still humming along. So be careful demanding more regulations on businesses. These businesses are the only lifeline making this whole scheme work at all.

The way to keep these businesses humming is to make sure that employees are safe.  Arguing against removing liability is not “demanding more regulations”. 

[RDM]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

aww look at all the bored white guys and their magical thinking

What does race have to do with anything?  Ignorance does not know race or gender and the profound lack of civility and objectivity being displayed here today is sad.  Don't need to throw kerosene on a bonfire.  

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

The way to keep these businesses humming is to make sure that employees are safe.  Arguing against removing liability is not “demanding more regulations”. 

What happens when Bezos turns around and says, "I need to lay off some staff and reduce operations because providing the mandatory PPE and meeting social distancing guidelines in all warehouses is impossible otherwise"? The state and federal govt will back down fast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What happens when Bezos turns around and says, "I need to lay off some staff and reduce operations because providing the mandatory PPE and meeting social distancing guidelines in all warehouses is impossible otherwise"? The state and federal govt will back down fast.

So we just give up and say you’re on your own delivery workers? Get your own PPE and hope your employer takes it seriously?