SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 This graph illustrates our problem very clearly. Unless you’re China (data caveat) you don’t come off the plateau very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 5 hours ago, Ji said: 55% of VA death count is from nursing homes. If my math is correct 45% of the deaths weren't acceptable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Probpublica now reporting this. It’s fascinating. One thing that this virus is starting to be known for is non-typical symptomology. Primarily, it seems to be a virus affecting blood clotting heavily and some people’s only symptoms are blood clotting. The very first case of covid was found on a retro examination as it was originally coded as a heart attack. Of course people are probably also scared of going to hospitals contributing to higher death counts. Either way, a lot of people are dying right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 58 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Probpublica now reporting this. It’s fascinating. One thing that this virus is starting to be known for is non-typical symptomology. Primarily, it seems to be a virus affecting blood clotting heavily and some people’s only symptoms are blood clotting. The very first case of covid was found on a retro examination as it was originally coded as a heart attack. Of course people are probably also scared of going to hospitals contributing to higher death counts. Either way, a lot of people are dying right now. In my opinion I think most of these at home deaths are simply people too afraid to go to the ER for fear of catching the virus. They’ll probably ignore that lingering chest pain rather than get it checked out in normal circumstances. Though I’ve read more and more anecdotal reports from ER Doctors saying ventilators don’t help, it seems like more of a blood disorder rather than a respiratory one, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another about-face from public health officials on that, just like we did with masks and many other things. It would be interesting if we started seeing excess deaths from home in December through February, months before the panic- if so, it may be a clue as when the virus really arrived here. I don’t know if that data exists though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I would also add to my previous post (and I’m seeing this with people I know too), that some cardiologists are cancelling non-emergency visits, so a lot of people are not getting proper heart checkups... you can’t run an EKG in a telehealth visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 US Intel agencies reporting China hid or destroyed evidence of the virus (color me shocked). There should be retaliation against China and they should be held accountable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 22 hours ago, PhineasC said: Social distancing is fine. That's different than a lockdown. Sweden is social distancing. Americans are doing it too. That's not the same thing as saying you will arrest some kids playing at the park, harass people in their homes, force every kid into homeschooling for 2 years, force mandatory quarantines for crossing state lines, and do silly things like fill skateboard parks with sand and remove benches from the boardwalk. I agree that social distancing is fine.. but to what extent.. this is the real question at play. What if social distancing was as simple as a few common sense suggestions: If you are immunocompromised or have significant risk factors, self isolate. No visitors in nursing homes and certain units in hospitals. Extensive testing and monitoring for employees working in nursing homes and with the elderly. If you think your sick, don't go to work. Don't go to the baseball game. Don't go to the club. Suggestions like these of course spur on the expected response - What about incubation periods? You can be infectious and not be sick. Simply staying home from work is not good enough. What if you are immunocompromised and you live with a some millennial who insists they continue to go to the bar 3 nights a week. The truth is that we really do not know the true relationship between mitigation efforts and communal spread. Who on earth can tell you definitively that an increase in mitigation efforts would have a proportional decrease in communal spread. Of course you have the cookie cutter answer of.. "Every expert in the world agrees that this works" This is @psuhoffman favorite. But if you really think about it.. group consensus doesn't equal fact. The world's control groups suggest that the impact of mitigation efforts on communal spread is more or less unknown and sort of chaotic. What we do know for sure is that there are hotspots. The only way we will ever know the answer to this question is through years of studies, statistical analysis and peer review of such studies. Maybe postmortem (no pun intended) will supply these answers. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: This is argumentum ad populum though. There was time when a consensus of experts thought asbestos and lead paint were ok too. I doubt the current knowledge of COVID-19 is the correct answer across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Looks like another drop in hospitalizations today. 3 days in a row. Maryland might just be ready for a phase on May 15th... and we'll have plenty of time to see what other states look like in their phase 1s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: This graph illustrates our problem very clearly. Unless you’re China (data caveat) you don’t come off the plateau very quickly. You also have to take into account the increased testing as you look to the right in the graph. I’m not saying that this would mitigate totally the difficulty in coming off the plateau as shown in the graph, but it is something to take into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Just now, mattie g said: You also have to take into account the increased testing as you look to the right in the graph. I’m not saying that this would mitigate totally the difficulty in coming off the plateau as shown in the graph, but it is something to take into account. Those are deaths... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 22 hours ago, PhineasC said: Hospitalization numbers are declining all over the country. The CDC even said so. I posted it here last night. We have been told since early March that doom for us was "2 weeks away." Hospitals being overrun? 2 weeks away! Bodies being dumped in the street? 2 weeks away! Hundreds of thousands of deaths? 2 weeks away! Florida beachgoers dropping like flies? 2 weeks away! Georgia surge in deaths? 2 weeks away! It's clear now we are over the hump everywhere in this country, but diehard doom porn fans and those with reputations to protect will try to walk out of their entrenched positions slowly enough that we don't notice. We might be over the hump in places like NYC.. but we really dont know if we are over the hump in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Only 14% percent positive in Maryland, good sign, also the hospitalizations are down again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Those are deaths... I realize that. I don’t think it changes what I said though. I think you see an increased ratio of deaths attributed to COVID as more tests are being done. Again, I’m not saying things would change dramatically in that graph, but I do think it would change somewhat (probably more deaths earlier on) had you had similar availability of testing from the beginning of the crisis to now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 You know I hope it's clear to the "open now" people that a lot of us are not against opening, we just want to do it smartly. I don't think any of us want to stay isolated in quarantine for 2 years, but we also want to come out of this measured and calculated. All of the countries that have thrived in a coronavirus world have done so. It's why I'm so happy with Hogan's procuring of the 500k tests, and Maryland's decision to go forward sticking to the rules rather than trying to shortcut the process... and if things spike, well it will suck but at least we're following an evidence based process. Test, contact trace, isolate. I hope that the bill passes this next week to fund a 120,000 person contact tracing army. It seems to be getting support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: You know I hope it's clear to the "open now" people that a lot of us are not against opening, we just want to do it smartly. I don't think any of us want to stay isolated in quarantine for 2 years, but we also want to come out of this measured and calculated. All of the countries that have thrived in a coronavirus world have done so. It's why I'm so happy with Hogan's procuring of the 500k tests, and Maryland's decision to go forward sticking to the rules rather than trying to shortcut the process... and if things spike, well it will suck but at least we're following an evidence based process. Test, contact trace, isolate. I hope that the bill passes this next week to fund a 120,000 person contact tracing army. It seems to be getting support. It is really hard to say whether or not what is going on right now is evidenced based.. this is a first for pretty much everyone involved... I guess we do have some historical reference.. but the Spanish flu had a mortality rate that was 10-20 times greater than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: It is really hard to say whether or not what is going on right now is evidenced based.. this is a first for pretty much everyone involved... I guess we do have some historical reference.. but the Spanish flu had a mortality rate 10-20 times greater then this. Not sure about that last part, but the best bet for evidence based action is looking at governments and global health agencies recommendations, and the top experts and agencies in our own country, and trusting them to issue the best recommendations. Not youtube videos, individual doctors at for profit hospitals, politicians with competing interests, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: this is full of things that are simply untrue. Which parts? The section about the "unknowns"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: it's a respiratory illness with additional, and related, complications. That's the current thinking, yes, but who knows if that's correct. Those same "trusted health agencies" told us there was no human-to-human transmission, and there was no evidence masks were needed, the fatality rate was 3.4%, etc. I tend to weigh the opinions of actual Doctors with experience treating patients.more than academics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, 40westwx said: It is really hard to say whether or not what is going on right now is evidenced based.. this is a first for pretty much everyone involved... I guess we do have some historical reference.. but the Spanish flu had a mortality rate that was 10-20 times greater than this. Oh really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: no legitimate health agency in the US told us covid-19 wasn’t being transmitted by humans to humans. This was carefully worded with "in the US", because you know the WHO did indeed say that, which is what the CDC, Fauci et. al. based their opinions on months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: That's the current thinking, yes, but who knows if that's correct. Those same "trusted health agencies" told us there was no human-to-human transmission, and there was no evidence masks were needed, the fatality rate was 3.4%, etc. I tend to weigh the opinions of actual Doctors with experience treating patients.more than academics. The youtube video docs were using really faulty stats whether you believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, wxtrix said: all of it. and i’m not debating it either you, either, because you won’t actually consider what i—or anyone—have to say, and you will use the rebuttal to continuously repeat your disinformation. I simply stated that we might not have enough information right now to truly know what impact our actions have had on communal spread. I don't think that is inaccurate. Questions like this are what good science is based on. We are missing step 5 below. The scientific method has five basic steps, plus one feedback step: Make an observation. Ask a question. Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis. Test the prediction. Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The youtube video docs were using really faulty stats whether you believe it or not. I wasn’t even referring to the viral video of the two Doctors in CA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Oh really? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ "fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics. Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million" We debated it greatly.. but we are probably looking at 0.25% - 0.5% rate with COVID-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 aww look at all the bored white guys and their magical thinking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ "fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics. Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million" We debated it greatly.. but we are probably looking at 0.25% - 0.5% rate with COVID-19 Those are case fatality rates with the Spanish flu, so if you wanna compare that you need to compare it to case fatality rates of covid, which are also quite high. I’m not sure how instructive the comparison is though because of how much medical care has changed over the last 100 years. ETA: current case fatality for covid is 5.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 maybe everything the experts have been saying for months along with all the evidence in front of us just isn't true. have you thought about that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: I wasn’t even referring to the viral video of the two Doctors in CA... Yeah, my fault, I didn't follow the convo well. There is something with the oxygen carrying capacity of the blood, but I'm not sure why you think that makes it not a respiratory disease? The 3.4% CFR was reported preliminary from the Chinese data by the WHO, and it still reflects whatever truth you want to believe in the Chinese data. It wasn't reported as the actual fatality rate for the entire population by anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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