Jebman Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 13 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Wow that is quite a bit different. Lets hope this is how it plays out in reality. IF WE STICK TO DILIGENT MITIGATION, as we have been doing, I think this could trend even better, with respect to even less mortality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Going to spike again if you ask me. Why? As an essential careworker driving home today saw 2 softball games being played, a family bbq with no less than 15 vehicles, 2 grocery stores mobbed with customers out enjoying the nice weather for something to do (lots of families of 4 or 5 just passing the time). Guess they heard natl media coverage the certain zones are flattening the curve and now people are returning to normal without being given the all-clear. I hope those new lower projections are correct but I can tell you first hand people not giving a f are going to cause mandates to keep us inside all summer if they decide everything is hunky dory and they can return to normal because one or two areas are flattening and they want to enjoy the spring weather. Not good imho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said: My wife filed for unemployment soon after the schools closed. We got the tax withholding form and it said no work contacts were required, which is exactly what the webpage says. Now she gets a letter today saying “circumstances changed” and she has to do 3 per week? Wtf?? Anybody have some insight on this? I could be wrong but I think it is a mistake. I just spoke with MD Unemployment yesterday regarding several of my employees. I just needed to confirm they were laid off due to COVID and when I started to give them a rough return to work date she cut me off...."If its due to COVID there doesn't need to be a return to work date on file and the claimants do not need to search for work." I cant imagine they want anyone out searching for work....what work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 All I can say is I continue to have serious doubts about the IHME projected 3% infection rate nation wide through this wave of the pandemic. Everything I am seeing argues strongly against this figure as to where it is underdone if not grossly underdone. I also question if we don't see a longer period at the apex of the curve (the highest infection rates) then currently projected by the model of a week to a week and a half. I believe there is the potential we will see a longer period at the apex, potentially much longer. How much longer I really haven't thought through at this time. Now my reasoning for a longer period is loosely associated to the idea behind the 6 degrees of separation. Now maybe later on I will try to write something up to break down my thoughts on this how the 6 degrees of separation is coming into play. Six degrees of separation Six degrees of separation is the idea that all people are six, or fewer, social connections away from each other. Also known as the 6 Handshakes rule. As a result, a chain of "a friend of a friend" statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Going to spike again if you ask me. Why? As an essential careworker driving home today saw 2 softball games being played, a family bbq with no less than 15 vehicles, 2 grocery stores mobbed with customers out enjoying the nice weather for something to do (lots of families of 4 or 5 just passing the time). Guess they heard natl media coverage the certain zones are flattening the curve and now people are returning to normal without being given the all-clear. I hope those new lower projections are correct but I can tell you first hand people not giving a f are going to cause mandates to keep us inside all summer if they decide everything is hunky dory and they can return to normal because one or two areas are flattening and they want to enjoy the spring weather. Not good imho. is this in MD, or PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 12 hours ago, WxUSAF said: My wife filed for unemployment soon after the schools closed. We got the tax withholding form and it said no work contacts were required, which is exactly what the webpage says. Now she gets a letter today saying “circumstances changed” and she has to do 3 per week? Wtf?? Anybody have some insight on this? My wife had to do the same thing when she was laid off for a 7 month period. We've learned more about the state's unemployment system than we care to know. PM me with any questions you may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 MD 10am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Pretty wild if it happens. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 One of the positives from the 10 am update is +47 hospitalizations, I think the past few days it was averaging well over 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: One of the positives from the 10 am update is +47 hospitalizations, I think the past few days it was averaging well over 100. Looks like over a 100 let out of isolation. That's positive for sure. More are coming out then going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: One of the positives from the 10 am update is +47 hospitalizations, I think the past few days it was averaging well over 100. MD DOH started showing that data on April 3rd 3rd: +82 4th: +157 5th: +115 6th: +123 7th: +47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 It’s to early in MD to draw any conclusions, but the number of new cases is hopefully a sign of better times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 I know that many on here detest Breitbart but I thought they might find the information in this article note worthy in regards to what we are seeing with the hospitals as well as what we have seen in regards to the IHME. There is nothing political about it is just general information which is of a very positive note vs. what we were seeing just days ago.. And NO it does not mean I am Right Wing fanatic that inhabits Breitbart, it just means that I am well read who visits many of the Right and Left sites to get a perspective from both sides. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/u-s-coronavirus-hospitalizations-lower-than-predicted-ny-marks-75-drop/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 I wonder if hydroxy is impacting less hospitalizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don’t do it! Just checking, talking about the article I posted? That's a great clip. What show is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Will this probably take longer to go away than it took to start? Probably a somewhat dumb question as I can guess the answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 nope, we aren't doing that in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Oh STFU with this crap. Most of your posts are an embarrassment. Thankfully you don't post much. Oh look, the bitter old sh*thead decides to chirp in. Just fooling with you. Hope you have had a good morning so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: Oh look, the bitter old sh*thead decides to chirp in. Just fooling with you. Hope you have had a good morning so far. lol Notice no one said anything about it but him. No reason for him to swoop in and jump on his soapbox. It was the libtards who ran Mitch off the board ya know!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Wuhan will finally lift their lockdown today. Many of the tourist sites in China have opened back up this past weekend. It'll be an interesting to see how they do in terms of resurgence of cases. If they don't see a 'second wave', that bodes well for us too - it means a second wave won't happen here either as long as we have an aggressive containment strategy. However, our economy isn't going to be operating at 100% capacity until we have a vaccine. Maybe 90% capacity. I just don't see how the leisure, entertainment, travel & hospitality industries go back to 100% when some subset of the population is fearful of coming out even after restrictions are lifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol Notice no one said anything about it but him. No reason for him to swoop in and jump on his soapbox. It was the libtards who ran Mitch off the board ya know!!! I just don't see the sense in all this hate and desire that people pick sides. Been a very stressful last 10 years or so for me with the divisions we are now seeing in this country. After all I am a very easy going guy that accepts everyone for who they are and not their possible physical, religious, ideological, political, etc... differences. Life is hard enough without bringing all this crap into the equation. Now mind you, when I am feeling a little peckish I will jump onto a political board and join in though. And yeah, I can troll with the best of them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No, not at all. It was a response to the comments after your post. I’m a lib and I read the article lol. Cases in hospitalizations jumped today in NY, but ICU moves are down again. Deaths are at the highest yet. I’m hopeful the overall numbers will come in a lot lower than projections, but I’m only cautiously optimistic right now. We have to get this peak and eventual reopening right. We are probably going to spikes and dips for the near future so we will really need to get a few days under our belts to get an idea of where we stand. That said that is some promising news. Let's hope it holds. You never told me what that clip was from. I laughed my butt off seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. Hopefully the next week is better than this one. I actually don’t know what show the clip is from. I just go with whatever fits the moment Police Squad from 1982. Thought it rang a bell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Pretty wild if it happens. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona Outside, in Arizona, in summer. These games are all going to be starting at 11pm on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Outside, in Arizona, in summer. These games are all going to be starting at 11pm on the east coast. Players are going to have to start at 9am local time for us easterners to get those doubleheaders in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, jaydreb said: Pretty wild if it happens. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona Now that is thinking somewhat out of the box. Would be nice if they can get this to work as it would help to get people back to a sense of somewhat normalcy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Excerpt from an interview done with CDC Director Robert Redfield on 1030 KVOI radio. I had to laugh a little because it reminded me of many a winter on these boards where the snowiest, most extreme model/model runs for a storm were the ones that were hyped by the news and Social Media. And yet the reality was always something much less. HOST: We were talking about some of the models, whether it’s from the imperial college guy in England or the University of Washington. Thank god some of these numbers are falling short of some of these catastrophic numbers. Tell me about the dynamic of the modeling and how it helps and influences decision making and then, when the reality comes in, how does the decision making transform? DR. ROBERT REDFIELD: I think it’s really important. First, models are only as good as their assumptions. Obviously, there was a lot unknown about this virus. The ability to actively make a lot of assumptions was much wider than if this was an Influenza B outbreak. Second thing, I will say from a public health perspective, to me, the real value of models is to have a model and then try to understand — if I invest resources here, what does that do to the model? If I invest in intervention strategies here, what does that do to the model? It’s a way of beta testing how you’re going to respond and what it does to the different models. And models should never be used to assume that we have a number. You saw those numbers are quite staggering. You’ve got 200,000 to 2 million Americans are losing their lives before the fall. That’s a pretty staggering number. HOST: Are throwing those kind of numbers out actually helpful because what they do is scare the hell out of everyone to social distance? Is that the purpose? DR. REDFIELD: I think different people may look at it in different ways in terms of transparency. CDC had models early on. We didn’t really publicize the models. We used them internally to understand deviation strategies. I think part of the importance of getting the American public’s attention that these models did, we really need the American public to be fully engaged now with great rigor and vigilance on the social distancing. As you pointed out, those models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You have to pay attention to the data you have, just like winter, but that doesn’t mean you blindly accept. Given the transmission rate and mortality rate, it’s not unreasonable to think those numbers were possible without action. We took dramatic action to social distance, and it looks like that’s bearing some fruit. We’re not out of the woods yet, but I’m hopeful. Hogan is having a presser right now, one his covid task force people publicly stated they were pleased to see numbers go down over the last 24hrs, but doesn't want anyone to have a false sense of security. Hogan is also directed DOH to release more demographic information and that the state lab is pushing to get results out within 24hrs of testing so numbers are more reflective of whats happening in real time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 Hogan says, and this is important, that if MD continues doing what they are doing, the curve will flatten... however the length of time it lasts could be longer, though hospital systems won't be overwhelmed regarding testing: there was a backlog (as i figured and said numerous times) and they are still playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 Hogan: 1-2 BILLION has already been spent within the state. wowza. that's gonna hurt the states budget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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