SnowGolfBro Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I missed the data to support your claim that protesters don’t increase anyone’s risk. Is there evidence to support that outdoor activities spread the virus? Or have there been virus outbreaks attributed to the protest areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I missed the data to support your claim that protesters don’t increase anyone’s risk. That's not how this works and you know that. I don't need to prove the negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: That's not how this works and you know that. I don't need to prove the negative. It is known that the virus spreads through close contact. I saw dozens of protestors in close proximity in the Michigan statehouse screaming with no masks on. If you know of some basic science that suggests that this wouldn’t spread the disease you should share it. But you don’t because that science doesn’t exist, you’re just spinning everything to fit your agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 So has anyone heard of "quarantine circles"? The idea is interesting to me. Basically, finding a group of 10 or so friends and basically saying "We're not going to hang out with anyone else" and therefore being able to freely visit one another during the quarantine while knowing you're all safe. I have a few friends that are doing it, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Obvs this expert hasn’t heard about Dr. Phin’s and Dr. 40west’s expert opinions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: So has anyone heard of "quarantine circles"? The idea is interesting to me. Basically, finding a group of 10 or so friends and basically saying "We're not going to hang out with anyone else" and therefore being able to freely visit one another during the quarantine while knowing you're all safe. I have a few friends that are doing it, haha. I’ve heard of it. Seems like you’d be taking on a small amount of additional risk but it’s up to the people involved to decide if it’s worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Obvs this expert hasn’t heard about Dr. Phin’s and Dr. 40west’s expert opinions Once the IFR was shown to be about 0.7% in the New York serology study + the Swiss study, and it was clear 1.5-2 million would die in a herd immunity scenario, I basically started tuning out Phin and other "it's just the flu bro" type people here. 60k for a 2% is about in line with that, and definitely not worth the tradeoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I’ve heard of it. Seems like you’d be taking on a small amount of additional risk but it’s up to the people involved to decide if it’s worth it. Yeah. I'm not sure it's right for my family setup, namely my kid still gets traded off for custody/visitaiton stuff, but I could see its appeal if I were single and didn't have a kiddo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It is known that the virus spreads through close contact. I saw dozens of protestors in close proximity in the Michigan statehouse screaming with no masks on. If you know of some basic science that suggests that this wouldn’t spread the disease you should share it. But you don’t because that science doesn’t exist, you’re just spinning everything to fit your agenda. There is also ample data that it spreads much more rapidly indoors in enclosed spaces with shared ventilation. Part of the Chinese standard treatment involves opening the windows and doors and moving patients outside if possible. https://urbanland.uli.org/economy-markets-trends/confronting-covid-19-social-distancing-buildings-and-lessons-from-asia/ The stuff about the protestors really increasing the danger to anyone is political BS and nothing more. Crowds also gather at the local Whole Foods and Home Depot and none of you say a word about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Obvs this expert hasn’t heard about Dr. Phin’s and Dr. 40west’s expert opinions Yeah, nothing political about that guy. I guess he wants hard lockdowns for 2 years praying for a vaccine? OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Herd immunity doesn't require 100% of people to get infected. The infection rate will slow before we get to 70% infected and the death rate will plummet once the "easy victims" are out of the system/isolated. The other alternative is to sit at home for 2 years and pray the vaccine works (no guarantee). It's going to be your personal call because there is no way we are getting a test and trace system like South Korea. It really is that simple, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Is there evidence to support that outdoor activities spread the virus? Or have there been virus outbreaks attributed to the protest areas? The protest he was citing happened inside a state house building not outside. A video of the event showed a group of people lined up together next to each other. And I’m sure some of those people stopped to get gas or food and came in contact with others or touched things that will come in contact with others. How much risk they are creating is a valid discussion. Saying they don’t add any risk is ridiculous. The attempt at a case turn isn’t valid because I’m not the one claiming not to use anecdotal evidence and I’m not the one who made the claim. It’s not my job to disprove a claim the burden is on the person making a claim to prove it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 14 hours ago, PhineasC said: They will only stop dying from this virus if we somehow figure out how to cure it. 30,000-60,000 people will die from the flu in this country next year too. Just like every year. Seems hard to believe for some... I think that the issue here is that there is still a lot of unknowns with this Virus. We have no idea where we are in terms of overall infections in major populations around the country. If we take New York as the absolute worst case scenario.. where (based on tests conducted 3 weeks ago) approximately 1/5 of the population was infected and as a result around 20,000 people died, then one could argue that they have 80,000 deaths to go. If you then look at other major metropolitan areas like Chicago, LA, Houston, Dallas, etc... where we really dont know how many people have already been infected.. there is an argument that these cities also need to go through the New York experience in order to get over the hump. This might be a reality, with or without lockdown mitigation. It are these "unknowns" that make it so hard to make policy decisions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, PhineasC said: That's not how this works and you know that. I don't need to prove the negative. You aren’t the negative. The status quo right now is social distancing. You made the claim contrary to the status quo that their behavior contrary to the current status quo isn’t a risk. The burden of proof is on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The protest he was citing happened inside a state house building not outside. A video of the event showed a group of people lined up together next to each other. And I’m sure some of those people stopped to get gas or food and came in contact with others or touched things that will come in contact with others. How much risk they are creating is a valid discussion. Saying they don’t add any risk is ridiculous. The attempt at a case turn isn’t valid because I’m not the one claiming not to use anecdotal evidence and I’m not the one who made the claim. It’s not my job to disprove a claim the burden is on the person making a claim to prove it! If everyone around them is wearing masks and people avoid them, there is really no extra (statistically meaningful) risk. I don't see you nervously wringing your hands over trips to the liquor store or Walmart. This is all political and nothing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You aren’t the negative. The status quo right now is social distancing. You made the claim contrary to the status quo that their behavior contrary to the current status quo isn’t a risk. The burden of proof is on you. LOL There are more people at your local grocery store today than were at that protest. Some crowds are still an accepted "norm" during this lockdown, it's just that this particular crowd at the state house has you super triggered because they we're gun-toting conservatives. Be real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Herd immunity doesn't require 100% of people to get infected. The infection rate will slow before we get to 70% infected and the death rate will plummet once the "easy victims" are out of the system/isolated. The other alternative is to sit at home for 2 years and pray the vaccine works (no guarantee). It's going to be your personal call because there is no way we are getting a test and trace system like South Korea. It really is that simple, folks. If you look at the model.. herd immunity (ie no preventative measures) suggests that both the increase and decrease in infections happens at a geometric rate of change.. social distancing disrupts the trip back down the curve. But no social distancing/ herd immunity is not a viable option given the ethical principals at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I think that the issue here is that there is still a lot of unknowns with this Virus. We have no idea where we are in terms of overall infections in major populations around the country. If we take New York as the absolute worst case scenario.. where (based on tests conducted 3 weeks ago) approximately 1/5 of the population was infected and as a result around 20,000 people died, then one could argue that they have 80,000 deaths to go. If you then look at other major metropolitan areas like Chicago, LA, Houston, Dallas, etc... where we really dont know how many people have already been infected.. there is an argument that these cities also need to go through the New York experience in order to get over the hump. This might be a reality, with or without lockdown mitigation. It are these "unknowns" that make it so hard to make policy decisions right now. Hospitalization numbers are declining all over the country. The CDC even said so. I posted it here last night. We have been told since early March that doom for us was "2 weeks away." Hospitals being overrun? 2 weeks away! Bodies being dumped in the street? 2 weeks away! Hundreds of thousands of deaths? 2 weeks away! Florida beachgoers dropping like flies? 2 weeks away! Georgia surge in deaths? 2 weeks away! It's clear now we are over the hump everywhere in this country, but diehard doom porn fans and those with reputations to protect will try to walk out of their entrenched positions slowly enough that we don't notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: So has anyone heard of "quarantine circles"? The idea is interesting to me. Basically, finding a group of 10 or so friends and basically saying "We're not going to hang out with anyone else" and therefore being able to freely visit one another during the quarantine while knowing you're all safe. I have a few friends that are doing it, haha. Similar to the policy here in Newfoundland and Labrador. They call it "double bubble" where you can merge with another household as of Thursday. Kinda awkward in some respects since grandparents/parents would have to pick a favorite son or daughter etc. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Moderators, is taking a poll on when people on this thread would be willing to go back to work allowed, absent of course of any major developments? Maybe do it in it's own thread? Eh never mind; might get too political. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: If you look at the model.. herd immunity (ie no preventative measures) suggests that both the increase and decrease in infections happens at a geometric rate of change.. social distancing disrupts the trip back down the curve. But no social distancing/ herd immunity is not a viable option given the ethical principals at play. Social distancing is fine. That's different than a lockdown. Sweden is social distancing. Americans are doing it too. That's not the same thing as saying you will arrest some kids playing at the park, harass people in their homes, force every kid into homeschooling for 2 years, force mandatory quarantines for crossing state lines, and do silly things like fill skateboard parks with sand and remove benches from the boardwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 New Antibody study data from NY as survey is expanded to 15K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Social distancing is fine. That's different than a lockdown. Sweden is social distancing. Americans are doing it too. That's not the same thing as saying you will arrest some kids playing at the park, harass people in their homes, force every kid into homeschooling for 2 years, force mandatory quarantines for crossing state lines, and do silly things like fill skateboard parks with sand and remove benches from the boardwalk. Where are you getting 2 years from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 hour ago, ErinInTheSky said: 2 day drop in total hospitalizations in Maryland. Cheering on 14 days for a phase 1. Looks like Virginia is down for the 2nd day in a row also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Where are you getting 2 years from? Vaccine timeline. The rationale used to justify closing schools now will be exactly the same at the end of August. If schools open in August, it's only because over the summer we all decided COVID-19 wasn't worth all of the disruptions (which I think is possible), not because of some magic cure or testing regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Looks like Virginia is down for the 2nd day in a row also. So I guess if LockdownLarry gets even a one-day spike he restarts the clock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Where are you getting 2 years from? He has no idea. He backtracks and shifts and swerves like Floyd Mayweather. There is no consistency to his arguments other than using hyperbole to form a contrarian argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said: He has no idea. He backtracks and shifts and swerves like Floyd Mayweather. There is no consistency to his arguments other than using hyperbole to form a contrarian argument. You said yesterday I could leave the state any time I want to get a haircut, and you thought that was a compelling argument for why lockdowns are fine, dude. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You said yesterday I could leave the state any time I want to get a haircut, and you thought that was a compelling argument for why lockdowns are fine, dude. LOL You sure can. Have you been arrested yet for traveling between any of your three residences? I doubt it. There is no lockdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Here is where the truly committed lockdown governors go next: totally shutting off certain cities, regions, or possibly even counties. https://www.governor.state.nm.us/2020/05/01/gov-authorizes-gallup-lockdown/ Let's stop pretending it can't happen here. Next stop after this is taking people from home and forcibly sending them to a field hospital "for their own safety and the safety of the community." Let's hope common sense kicks in long before we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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