Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I don’t buy this. Your whole argument is framed incorrectly. You’re comparing the current economy to the pre pandemic economy. The pre pandemic economy would’ve been gone by now with or without policy decisions like stay at home orders. The idea that the economy would be humming along and all those under 40 year olds would be doing great without stay at home orders is pure unadulterated fantasy of the highest order. Phin's made it abundantly clear that he cares about nothing or no one other than himself. Arguing with him is like arguing with a cat, you're just wasting your time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I don’t buy this. Your whole argument is framed incorrectly. You’re comparing the current economy to the pre pandemic economy. The pre pandemic economy would’ve been gone by now with or without policy decisions like stay at home orders. The idea that the economy would be humming along and all those under 40 year olds would be doing great without stay at home orders is pure unadulterated fantasy of the highest order. Would have there been impacts to the economy even without a shutdown? Yes, certainly. We have seen this across the world in places that didn't have mandated lockdowns. It's a matter of scope and scale. We are headed towards historic unemployment numbers. These are not run of the mill 2008-level numbers. 80% of restaurants could go under in places such as tourist destinations. That hasn't happened in any of our lifetimes. I don't think it would have been that bad if we hadn't spun ourselves into a frenzy of fear over hospitals being overwhelmed, patients dying for lack of care, young people dropping like flies, and 200k+ deaths. These were all media-driven narratives from March that have since fallen apart. The new doom is the "second wave." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Third...there is a choice aspect to this. Death from a virus isn’t a choice. Suicide is. That said I am not minimizing mental health! But policy sometimes has to deal with the problem right in front of you most urgent. It’s incredibly unfortunate that some choose to succumb to feelings it grief in times of hardship and I empathize but if faced with a policy choice between letting a deadly virus spread unmitigated and possibly cause society “stress” which could lead to some people choosing to give in to feelings of grief and depression...that really is a difficult choice. I think you're downplaying the mental health aspect. For many people I know personally, this has been absolutely devastating mentally. Loneliness and isolation is associated with higher mortality. People who suffer from depression and anxiety have been told all their lives to mingle with others and get out in the world, now they're being locked away in their homes with nothing but media doomsayers telling them every day that there's no hope for years until a vaccine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 It's not fair to completely dismiss Phins opinions based on group think and fear mongering. We all have differing opinions, that is our right. Everyone on this thread seemingly makes decent points. Just because his are not part of the majority 'think's' on this board, doesn't mean his do not have equal merit. He has a right to be here without moderation. Let him speak his peace. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: There is a very clear link between rising unemployment and suicides. A single percentage point increase in unemployment leads to 1% more suicides. Imagine what a 30% to 40% increase in unemployment will do... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24925987 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/the-link-between-unemployment-and-suicide/ Your goals are noble, but will also kill a lot of people from economic and social hardship. Again, I don't see the point in discussing hypotheticals that are not occurring here on this planet. Total BS. Suicides in the US have been increasing for the past several years, all the while unemployment had been continually going down. Supposedly we had the greatest economy in the history of mankind, and yet the suicide rate was at a record high last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's not fair to completely dismiss Phins opinions based on group think and fear mongering. We all have differing opinions, that is our right. Everyone on this thread seemingly makes decent points. Just because his are not part of the majority 'think's' on this board, doesn't mean his do not have equal merit. He has a right to be here without moderation. Let him speak his peace. I’m engaging him on the merits of his claims. He is being given a chance to make his case. But I don’t blame those that are done with him. His claims are all over the place. They lack logical consistency. They contradict at times. Often what he is doing lacks integrity when he clearly attempts to bait people into a response so he can use it against them. He likes to troll. I love to debate and even I have to take a break from him after a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 A fair and healthy debate is when everyone gets a chance to speak their opinion. I keep reading about science and data and such, but that can be manipulated in a manner that suits the opinion. I know we all have the same sentiments and goals in mind and that is to get this thing out of here as soon as possible, but what's frustrating to a very large segment on this board and in society as a whole, is one group trying to tell another they do not have a voice. I don't know when this started, I don't care about politics, but it's wrong. This is a great place to be. We have all been together for the better part of 15 years. There's no reason to shutter one segment because it's not a majority opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Oh no, I have received the threats, and I will get some tomorrow. Every time you guys slam the report button it happens. I am told I cause major disruptions to the chill vibe here and that has to stop because moderating the OT threads on an off-season weather forum is serious business. I'm not joking. I think some people need to lighten up and let opposing points of view have a chance to make their claims. But you can be an ass so you’re bringing some of it on yourself. You could make the same exact claims but in a less abrasive antagonistic way and get a lot less negative reaction. You like the negative reaction. Stop pretending you don’t. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: A fair and healthy debate is when everyone gets a chance to speak their opinion. I keep reading about science and data and such, but that can be manipulated in a manner that suits the opinion. I know we all have the same sentiments and goals in mind and that is to get this thing out of here as soon as possible, but what's frustrating to a very large segment on this board and in society as a whole, is one group trying to tell another they do not have a voice. I don't know when this started, I don't care about politics, but it's wrong. This is a great place to be. We have all been together for the better part of 15 years. There's no reason to shutter one segment because it's not a majority opinion. Science is strongly moving towards this virus having a much lower IFR but higher infection rate than we thought. All the data is pointing that way now, debate now is over the degree. It wasn't that long ago that some governors made lockdown decisions based on data that showed 10% or more of people could die. We are still dealing with the reverberations of those decisions because of political inertia. It takes time to clear that kind of bad data when political careers are at stake and the voters are very scared because they ingested tons of bad doom porn data from social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Total BS. Suicides in the US have been increasing for the past several years, all the while unemployment had been continually going down. Supposedly we had the greatest economy in the history of mankind, and yet the suicide rate was at a record high last year. He may be exaggerating but there is a clear economic impact on mental health. The basic point he is making has some legitimacy. But there are a lot of other variables he is leaving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Science is strongly moving towards this virus having a much lower IFR but higher infection rate than we thought. All the data is pointing that way now, debate now is over the degree. It wasn't that long ago that some governors made lockdown decisions based on data that showed 10% or more of people could die. We are still dealing with the reverberations of those decisions because of political inertia. It takes time to clear that kind of bad data when political careers are at stake and the voters are very scared because they ingested tons of bad doom porn data from social media. You don't think 60k+ deaths in two months while locked down is concerning enough ? I mean the people in 2008 were worried that the government was ready to form death panels under socialized medicine , but you've already been a one man death panel that above stressed 70+ old people should die so 30 year olds can go to tourist restaurants. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: A fair and healthy debate is when everyone gets a chance to speak their opinion. I keep reading about science and data and such, but that can be manipulated in a manner that suits the opinion. I know we all have the same sentiments and goals in mind and that is to get this thing out of here as soon as possible, but what's frustrating to a very large segment on this board and in society as a whole, is one group trying to tell another they do not have a voice. I don't know when this started, I don't care about politics, but it's wrong. This is a great place to be. We have all been together for the better part of 15 years. There's no reason to shutter one segment because it's not a majority opinion. Lol welcome to America 2020! Disagree with someone’s hot take on social media and they block you in 2 seconds. And that’s liberals and conservatives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Larry Hogan right now is suffering from anchoring bias. His early decisions (earlier than much of the rest of the nation) were based on CFR data from Italy that said 10% or more of COVID patients died. That early data has since been proven inaccurate, especially below 80 years of age. In Larry's case, the "anchor" is the idea that this virus is a mass killer of every age group that can overwhelm hospitals seemingly overnight (supposedly like Lombardy -- we now know they get "overwhelmed" every flu season). With that idea locked into his mind, he is only going to very slowly pull out of the nosedive and change his strategy as the data all strongly points in the other direction. Cuomo has this issue too, but he seems closer to shedding it than Hogan. Cuomo's issue is he yapped for weeks about ventilators and field hospitals, spent hundreds of millions of dollars on them, and then they went unused. He needs to find a way to spin that into the voter memory hole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's still possible to see spikes in suicides caused by unemployment even within the overall rise. You shouldn't be dismissing more suicides just because there are already a lot of them... yikes. Every life matters, right? First you said there is a clear link, and now you're backtracking. Clearly there are bigger forces at play than the unemployment rate. If anything the increasing suicide rate correlates much more strongly with growing wealth inequality. But you don't seem like the type of person that would advocate for wealth redistribution to reduce the suicide rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol welcome to America 2020! Disagree with someone’s hot take on social media and they block you in 2 seconds. And that’s liberals and conservatives! It's too bad. I just turned 50 last month. Society is broken. It broke probably 10 or 15 years ago whereas there's no middle ground. It's either right or wrong, black or white. Right or left. But many blindly pick a team and stick with it. Politicians on both sides are equally, equally, equally, guilty of doing this. It's just the sign of the times when everyone believes they are important and their opinion is Gospel and not to be debunked or challenged. Probably has something to do with social media, and a generation or two that has been enabled to believe their own thoughts are SPECIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This is nonsense, but I guess it's the type of nonsense that the usual suspects here don't report and the mods love to see. Not worth my time otherwise. So you run when presented with facts? If you want to debate... let's go... if you want to just continue to spout nonsense would you take it to Facebook where nonsense runs rampant. As of today, 62,406 people have died in America of COVID19 according to the CDC. There is no end in sight, there is no treatment plan (outside traditional treatments for the symptoms that develop along with the COVID19). There is no vaccination. A large percent of the population can carry this and transmit it without knowing. There are 1,063,446 known US cases to date. That is a 5.8% death rate. This isn't the flu. Start your argument over again... why do you think we should sacrifice Americans when this has only gone on two months to date and it's this dire already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: First you said there is a clear link, and now you're backtracking. Clearly there are bigger forces at play than the unemployment rate. If anything the increasing suicide rate correlates much more strongly with growing wealth inequality. But you don't seem like the type of person that would advocate for wealth redistribution to reduce the suicide rate. Statisticians and researchers can use techniques to determine if the rise in suicides is simply background noise, part of a general trend, or caused by spikes in unemployment. I don't have the desire to explain this to you, but I can safely say your argument doesn't refute the studies showing a clear link. I hope you realize this isn't my idea, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, understudyhero said: So you run when presented with facts? If you want to debate... let's go... if you want to just continue to spout nonsense would you take it to Facebook where nonsense runs rampant. As of today, 62,406 people have died in America of COVID19 according to the CDC. There is no end in sight, there is no treatment plan (outside traditional treatments for the symptoms that develop along with the COVID19). There is no vaccination. A large percent of the population can carry this and transmit it without knowing. There are 1,063,446 known US cases to date. That is a 5.8% death rate. This isn't the flu. Start your argument over again... why do you think we should sacrifice Americans when this has only gone on two months to date and it's this dire already? Your calculation of CFR is completely pointless. Serological studies point to 20M+ Americans having this disease and not even knowing it. There could be 50M Americans with the disease. We just don't know yet. That drops the IFR (Infected Fatality Rate) to something like 0.1% to 0.5% or thereabouts (there is tons of debate on this). The 5.8% number you generated is total horse shit. No other way to say it, sorry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Statisticians and researchers can use techniques to determine if the rise in suicides is simply background noise, part of a general trend, or caused by spikes in unemployment. I don't have the desire to explain this to you, but I can safely say your argument doesn't refute the studies showing a clear link. I hope you realize this isn't my idea, BTW. The papers you posted are from 2014 and 2015. The unemployment rate has continually trended downward since then, and yet the suicide rate has continued to go up every year. The last five years of data since those papers were published refute the supposedly clear link. There may be a link but there are clearly bigger forces at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 About $5M in the US, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I can't believe the CDC posted this. It's just a flu, bro! lol Posts like these are why you irritate people. The current hospitalization rate is like a severe flu season because of all the restrictions in place. Also, I'm guessing a substantial number of people who are sick enough to require hospitalization are trying to ride it out at home, but that is difficult to quantify. On another note, we begin the great reopening of my state in a few days from now. It will be an interesting test case on what happens when you have a state and a mega metro area with a stay at home order in place until the end of May (Chicago) right next to a state that is opening up. I hope our hospitals can handle it. We have good availability of beds right now but things can change fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: lol Posts like these are why you irritate people. The current hospitalization rate is like a severe flu season because of all the restrictions in place. Also, I'm guessing a substantial number of people who are sick enough to require hospitalization are trying to ride it out at home, but that is difficult to quantify. On another note, we begin the great reopening of my state in a few days from now. It will be an interesting test case on what happens when you have a state and a mega metro area with a stay at home order in place until the end of May (Chicago) right next to a state that is opening up. I hope our hospitals can handle it. We have good availability of beds right now but things can change fast. Your state will be fine. The hype over this virus is really overblown. Your local news will replace "cat stuck in tree" stories with "20 year old football star deathly ill from COVID" stories but you need to power past the media fear narrative. The stats will barely bump when you reopen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 6 hours ago, PhineasC said: Your state will be fine. The hype over this virus is really overblown. Your local news will replace "cat stuck in tree" stories with "20 year old football star deathly ill from COVID" stories but you need to power past the media fear narrative. The stats will barely bump when you reopen. Hype ? Really ? 96 of my fellow co workers went sick in early April and 45 were positive with the virus. My fiancee lost her friend, her friend's father and a couple of other people she worked with to the virus. Her friend was only 31. Late March and early April was the worst . I was so busy at work answering DOA jobs. Now tell people how everything is hype. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 6 hours ago, Stormpc said: Ask someone else who has broached the subject. I haven't. 7 hours ago, wxtrix said: what is the dollar value of a human life? It’s actually an interesting question. We don’t value human life infinitely. One example I came across was that if we valued human life infinitely the speed limit would be 10 mph everywhere because that would eliminate 30-40k traffic accident deaths per year. But we don’t. The price of those lives is the convenience and economic benefit of driving fast. There are more examples like this of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScot Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 All of these back and forth seem to imply that the answer is one way or the other - close or open across at least an entire state. To me that goes against both sides of the argument. What is needed to control the infection AND what a shutdown does to the economy is VERY different in Silver Spring than it is in Deep Creek or than it is in Tilghman - to stay within Maryland for now. The next step in relaxing the mandatory closures is to make SOME decisions at a county and city level ( and yes, I know people will drive and move around- up to a point). (And to be clear , I am talking about what is mandated, not what you should do IF you can. Everyone that can work from home should be able to - for the rest of the year. Distancing should be place for a LONG time.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Hi guys. I hope you are all staying home and social distancing until the vaccine comes out or we get our first snowstorm or we reach 60% unemployment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 2, 2020 Author Share Posted May 2, 2020 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which anchor was it? Hi, it was Lowell Melser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hype ? Really ? 96 of my fellow co workers went sick in early April and 45 were positive with the virus. My fiancee lost her friend, her friend's father and a couple of other people she worked with to the virus. Her friend was only 31. Late March and early April was the worst . I was so busy at work answering DOA jobs. Now tell people how everything is hype. I don’t address anecdotes. My posts refer to state and national level data. Sorry for those deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 2 day drop in total hospitalizations in Maryland. Cheering on 14 days for a phase 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I don’t address anecdotes. My posts refer to state and national level data. Sorry for those deaths. I missed the data to support your claim that protesters don’t increase anyone’s risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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