COVID-19 Talk

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You can pay the price now or drag it out for 24 months.

This argument contradicts your post about Denmark where they effectively stifled the spread then were able to reopen without much negative consequences. You can run more then one policy stance concurrently but only if they aren’t contradictory.   You’re in a double bind here.

[PhineasC]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

On the contrary taking an ineffective action because “we are America” lacks logical consistency. We have the same biology as everyone else. The virus isn’t going to give us some special leniency just because our society is more individualistic than the rest of the world. What works works. What doesn’t doesn’t. The flag in your front yard won’t change that. 

It hasn't given us leniency at all. What I am saying is that the things you are mentioning that worked in New Zealand and Korea will never happen here. Our geography alone means we can't be like them. The honest truth is we will just accept the extra deaths in the nursing homes versus being locked down tight indefinitely. There is a whole field of study around "quality-adjusted life years" (QALY) and that analysis says this virus hasn't been that big of a deal. I know you will say that means I lack empathy and want granny to die, so you don't need to post it.

[Inverted_Trough]

Looks like rural counties in PA are seeing much more cases while urban/suburban areas have plateaued or trended downward.  I guess the liberty & freedom brigade brought it back home from their protest in Harrisburg.

[snowfan]

Each time I visit wegmans the experience changes just a bit. Some things I noticed today....

1) center aisle blocked in usually high traffic spots in an attempt to enforce one way traffic in the primary aisles.

2) employees temperature checked upon reporting inside. This is out of view of the main shopping area, but I caught a glimpse looking in from outside while waiting in line to enter.

3) now, you place your items on the belt, the cashier moves your cart into a position where it can be loaded. The customer must stand behind a chain until the cashier is done and the bill is paid for. The cashier then unhooks the chain and you walk out.

4) no chicken, ground beef, or ground turkey.

[PhineasC]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This argument contradicts your post about Denmark where they effectively stifled the spread then were able to reopen without much negative consequences. You can run more then one policy stance concurrently but only if they aren’t contradictory.   You’re in a double bind here.

In Denmark they are assuming a very wide dispersal of antibodies. That's kind of a key point. If you don't believe studies showing 50 times or more people have the virus than the official counts, I could see why you'd think official case counts could be indicative of "slowing the spread."

[PhineasC]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Looks like rural counties in PA are seeing much more cases while urban/suburban areas have plateaued or trended downward.  I guess the liberty & freedom brigade brought it back home from their protest in Harrisburg.

Or testing is expanding across states as more sites come online... 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Looks like rural counties in PA are seeing much more cases while urban/suburban areas have plateaued or trended downward.  I guess the liberty & freedom brigade brought it back home from their protest in Harrisburg.

This is something I discussed w a friend today. We should prepare for the coasts to plateau, while the heart of the country in middle America spikes. 

[Inverted_Trough]

31 states are lifting some restrictions by next week. The usual suspects are free to take a short drive or plane ride and have that heavenly dine-in meal at Denny's.  There's no need to waste time here:  Do your part to contribute to G-D-P.

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You can pay the price now or drag it out for 24 months.

Man dude that's a lot of people. I think this can be managed without that type of loss. That dude on fox that said an 80 yr old life isn't as valuable as a 30 yr old was ridiculous in my opinion. We shouldn't have to think that way this isn't some third world country 

[PhineasC]

There is a reason even stubborn lockdown governors like Hogan are no longer using daily case counts to drive policy. That data is almost totally driven up and down by testing rates. But I keep seeing people trying to use those numbers to find trends.

[PhineasC]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Man dude that's a lot of people. I think this can be managed without that type of loss. That dude on fox that said an 80 yr old life isn't as valuable as a 30 yr old was ridiculous in my opinion. We shouldn't have to think that way this isn't some third world country 

Unless there is a treatment or vaccine, the numbers are what they are if you don't want a total lockdown Wuhan-style (which some do want). 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

31 states are lifting some restrictions by next week. The usual suspects are free to take a short drive or plane ride and have that heavenly dine-in meal at Denny's.  There's no need to waste time here:  Do your part to contribute to G-D-P.

Just give people the ability to make personal choices. You seem kinda gleeful at the thought of some dumb redneck getting the virus and dying to prove your point, which is gross, but you do you.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I wonder how many of my posts are being reported right now. LOL

I report you even when you don't post.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I report you even when you don't post.

I am a permanent irritant. Like glitter.

[Inverted_Trough]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just give people the ability to make personal choices. You seem kinda gleeful at the thought of some dumb redneck getting the virus and dying to prove your point, which is gross, but you do you.

You always had a choice.  Transport links haven't been cut.  You can drive or fly to any state that didn't have those restrictions, and get your haircut there.  Federalism at its finest.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It hasn't given us leniency at all. What I am saying is that the things you are mentioning that worked in New Zealand and Korea will never happen here. Our geography alone means we can't be like them. The honest truth is we will just accept the extra deaths in the nursing homes versus being locked down tight indefinitely. There is a whole field of study around "quality-adjusted life years" (QALY) and that analysis says this virus hasn't been that big of a deal. I know you will say that means I lack empathy and want granny to die, so you don't need to post it.

1: I never said we were likely to take the necessary social measures to effectively combat this. I actually am not the least but shocked that we aren’t. Everything about our society is the opposite of what you would want for an effective pandemic mitigation strategy. 

2. But I don’t accept the paradigm that I have to create policy based on those limitations. What works works. What doesn’t doesn’t. I’m not going to advocate a strategy that doesn’t work simply because we lack the willingness to do what does. In the end we will probably not take the more effective approach but that’s not on me. 

Take the economy. We could mitigate the econonic pain better.  Just because we are too anti government ideologically to do the necessary command measures to do that does not mean I’m going to advocate a less effective virus policy. One stupid decision won’t dictate another stupid decision from me.  Now if that’s how society decides to go so be it. But it won’t be any fault of mine. My advocacy will always be for what I think is the most effective policy given the evidence at hand. If people don’t want to listen that’s on them. 

3.  If you want to debate with me than debate what I say. I’ve never made any of those accusations. I’m not going to continue a dialogue if you just want to debate with others through me. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just give people the ability to make personal choices. You seem kinda gleeful at the thought of some dumb redneck getting the virus and dying to prove your point, which is gross, but you do you.

This is an intellectually hollow libertarian argument. What if I want to use my personal choice to dump toxic chemicals in my yard and it contaminates my neighbors well water?  Rights cannot be unlimited because then one person can use their rights to subjugate someone else. 

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

You always had a choice.  Transport links haven't been cut.  You can drive or fly to any state that didn't have those restrictions, and get your haircut there.  Federalism at its finest.

If I left the state for a haircut (what a silly statement), I could be accosted at the border and forced to isolate for 14 days upon my return. I most certainly didn't have a choice here. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is an intellectually hollow libertarian argument. What if I want to use my personal choice to dump toxic chemicals in my yard and it contaminates my neighbors well water?  Rights cannot be unlimited because then one person can use their rights to subjugate someone else. 

That's a silly straw man. A redneck toting a gun standing at the state house doesn't increase your risk of catching coronavirus at all. Whereas dumping toxic waste can easily affect your health. Bad analogy.

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1: I never said we were likely to take the necessary social measures to effectively combat this. I actually am not the least but shocked that we aren’t. Everything about our society is the opposite of what you would want for an effective pandemic mitigation strategy. 

2. But I don’t accept the paradigm that I have to create policy based on those limitations. What works works. What doesn’t doesn’t. I’m not going to advocate a strategy that doesn’t work simply because we lack the willingness to do what does. In the end we will probably not take the more effective approach but that’s not on me. 

Take the economy. We could mitigate the econonic pain better.  Just because we are too anti government ideologically to do the necessary command measures to do that does not mean I’m going to advocate a less effective virus policy. One stupid decision won’t dictate another stupid decision from me.  Now if that’s how society decides to go so be it. But it won’t be any fault of mine. My advocacy will always be for what I think is the most effective policy given the evidence at hand. If people don’t want to listen that’s on them. 

3.  If you want to debate with me than debate what I say. I’ve never made any of those accusations. I’m not going to continue a dialogue if you just want to debate with others through me. 

Your ideas are noble from a COVID lifesaving perspective (from mental health perspective of those locked down they are not great), I just don't see the point in discussing impossible hypotheticals that haven't happened and won't happen. The lockdowns are ending, and it's clear we won't have a robust test and trace infrastructure here before we open up, nor will most of the west.

[Inverted_Trough]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Your ideas are noble from a COVID lifesaving perspective (from mental health perspective of those locked down they are not great), I just don't see the point in discussing impossible hypotheticals that haven't happened and won't happen. The lockdowns restrictions are ending, and it's clear we won't have a robust test and trace infrastructure here before we open up, nor will most of the west.

Fixed.  We never had lockdowns.

[Inverted_Trough]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If I left the state for a haircut (what a silly statement), I could be accosted at the border and forced to isolate for 14 days upon my return. I most certainly didn't have a choice here. 

That's highly doubtful.  I cross state lines all the time with no issues.  You should consider moving out of that state.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

That's a silly straw man. A redneck toting a gun standing at the state house doesn't increase your risk of catching coronavirus at all. Whereas dumping toxic waste can easily affect your health. Bad analogy.

1. Yes that person does increase my odds. How much depends who else they come in contact with and how extensive their idiotic behavior is. But your assertion is false.

2. If that gun toting idiot intimidated the legislature and governor into a stupid policy decision it most definitely could effect my health. 

3.  You said give people choice.  But now you are editing that to “give people choice when it doesn’t increase risk to others”. But almost anything increases risk. The question is where is the acceptable line where individual choice and unacceptable risk to society meets. And that is subjective.  It necessitates being debated on the merits of each policy not broad talking points like “just let people make choices”. 

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Fixed.  We never had lockdowns.

We had the closest thing we'd ever have here, similar to the rest of the western democracies. There is no sense in talking about Wuhan here.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1. Yes that person does increase my odds. How much depends who else they come in contact with and how extensive their idiotic behavior is. But your assertion is false.

2. If that gun toting idiot intimidated the legislature and governor into a stupid policy decision it most definitely could effect my health. 

3.  You said give people choice.  But now you are editing that to “give people choice when it doesn’t increase risk to others”. But almost anything increases risk. The question is where is the acceptable line where individual choice and unacceptable risk to society meets. And that is subjective.  It necessitates being debated on the merits of each policy not broad talking points like “just let people make choices”. 

Come on, the far greater increase comes from your weekly trip to the grocery store or the Door Dash guy and you know it. You just have a political issue with the protests.

Your whole post is silly and out of touch with a realistic assessment of the situation. If you think a guy protesting the lockdown increases your personal risk in a meaningful way, I don't think you have a firm grasp on the actual danger from COVID versus the impacts of the "cure."

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

That's highly doubtful.  I cross state lines all the time with no issues.  You should consider moving out of that state.

LOL OK. Thanks for the advice!

[PhineasC]

The fact remains the same as it has since this started. No one in the western democracies will tolerate a hard lockdown for 2 years waiting for a possible vaccine that may never materialize. Unless you plan to stay locked down indefinitely, reopening has to happen, and it doesn't appear as though delaying it helps all that much with final death counts, assuming you stay under hospital capacity (and we are WAY under).

[Inverted_Trough]

It appears many states are getting cold feet about their limited re-opening.  Ohio and Mississippi have already pulled back.  Texas, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee had some of their largest case totals just today.  Rural areas are getting hit hard now, which appears to have changed the narrative in some of these states.  Not surprising.

 

 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

It appears many states are getting cold feet about their limited re-opening.  Ohio and Mississippi have already pulled back.  Texas, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee had some of their largest case totals just today.  Rural areas are getting hit hard now, which appears to have changed the narrative in some of these states.  Not surprising.

 

 

 

Are we living on the same planet?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I don’t really understand the logic behind the “14 days of declining hospital admissions” as a metric to reopen in MD. Shouldn’t it be more about the actual percentage of hospital capacity rather than the trend? For example, if we decline from 90% capacity to 80% over two weeks, it’s ok to open, but if we’re at 3% and increase to 5%, we have to stay locked down? Doesn’t make much sense to me.

(Those numbers are just made up- I have no idea what our capacity is right now. I can’t find that data)