COVID-19 Talk

[Santa Clause]

5 hours ago, mappy said:

well, i think it should still be something people acknowledge. but its not a useful metric to reopen. people are going to get this, even after we reopen. its in the community, and has been for some time now, before Mid-March. Hell, many of us may have had it and we didn't even know it. More and more stories of people being ill with covid-like symptoms in December and January. WBAL did a whole thing on it yesterday. One of their own anchors was out sick with awful flu like symptoms but tested negative for Flu A and B. I think he was going to be doing the Quest Diagnostic anti-body test that is available.

No use arguing lol, they’re too dense to realize more positive cases now is more hospitalizations in 10 days.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

On vacation. See you in December. 
 

Back on topic, I posted new polling data in the NE thread.

There’s a big political split statistically on some things but look at that unity on getting back to work. Compared to how ubiquitous these activities are in daily life, these numbers are still dramatically lower and a bad sign for the economy in the longer term. 

People need to know they’re not going to get sick or get a loved one sick before we see the kind of economic recovery we’re all hoping for. 

As people start seeing their fellow Americans going out and being fine, these numbers will shift further. There is still an enormous amount of fear out there about this virus, but Americans will be moved by a herd mentality once a critical mass of states open and people get out there. Could take until early-June when the weather is hot everywhere.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, mappy said:

well, i think it should still be something people acknowledge. but its not a useful metric to reopen. people are going to get this, even after we reopen. its in the community, and has been for some time now, before Mid-March. Hell, many of us may have had it and we didn't even know it. More and more stories of people being ill with covid-like symptoms in December and January. WBAL did a whole thing on it yesterday. One of their own anchors was out sick with awful flu like symptoms but tested negative for Flu A and B. I think he was going to be doing the Quest Diagnostic anti-body test that is available.

Which anchor was it?

[Yeoman]

5 hours ago, ErinInTheSky said:

 

 

 

One week in, Georgia's reopening appears to be doing nothing. Most restaurants still closed, nail salons opening are not getting customers, etc. I've heard some reports on NPR and have seen a lot on social media about this (I do social media monitoring as part of my job).

Most restaurants won't open until they are allowed to open fully, otherwise they are just losing more money than if they stayed closed. All of the nail salon customers are at the beach

[Yeoman]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

As people start seeing their fellow Americans going out and being fine, these numbers will shift further. There is still an enormous amount of fear out there about this virus, but Americans will be moved by a herd mentality once a critical mass of states open and people get out there. Could take until early-June when the weather is hot everywhere.

This ^^

[jaydreb]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

On vacation. See you in December. 
 

Back on topic, I posted new polling data in the NE thread.

There’s a big political split statistically on some things but look at that unity on getting back to work. Compared to how ubiquitous these activities are in daily life, these numbers are still dramatically lower and a bad sign for the economy in the longer term. 

People need to know they’re not going to get sick or get a loved one sick before we see the kind of economic recovery we’re all hoping for. 

I mean, your point may be valid but what kind of useless questions are these?  Are you “concerned?”  Of course people are going to say they are concerned, even if it’s just a little bit.  Shouldn’t the question be “Are you so concerned about getting the virus that you won’t be going back to work/visiting businesses?”

And the second question is pretty useless too.  Are any states proposing to lift social distancing guidelines tomorrow?  Seems like a loaded question.  

[aldie 22]

23 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

As people start seeing their fellow Americans going out and being fine, these numbers will shift further. There is still an enormous amount of fear out there about this virus, but Americans will be moved by a herd mentality once a critical mass of states open and people get out there. Could take until early-June when the weather is hot everywhere.

Nice spike in Wisconsin 3 weeks after the election 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

On vacation. See you in December. 
 

You need to open early, at least just for Ji!  He'll be squatting outside, waiting for his usual room, shortly after Halloween! 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nice spike in Wisconsin 3 weeks after the election 

Are you being facetious? From what I read, there has been no spike related to the election.

[aldie 22]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Are you being facetious? From what I read, there has been no spike related to the election.

No I said a nice spike in Wisconsin today 3 weeks post election. Draw your own conclusions on why the sudden jump 

[PhineasC]

Any increase in case totals could just be from more testing. That's why it's a terrible metric for making policy decisions. Hospitalizations is about the best we have right now.

[PhineasC]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

No I said a nice spike in Wisconsin today 3 weeks post election. Draw your own conclusions on why the sudden jump 

More testing, most likely.

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nice spike in Wisconsin 3 weeks after the election 

What spike? This is from Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

“The state said about two dozen people may have been infected on election day,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported on Wednesday. “Some have characterized these numbers as an ‘uptick,’ but the experts are cautious.”

Ryan Westergaard, the chief medical officer at the Department of Health Services, told the paper that a link could not be established between the election and the very small number of cases that had developed among the 413,000 voters who showed up to the polls on April 7.

With the data we have, we can’t prove an association,” Westergaard said. “It would be speculative to say that was definitely the cause without really investigating closely and being clear that somebody really had no other potential exposure to infected people. I don’t think we have the resources to really do that to know definitely.”

“I don’t think that the in-person election led to a major effect, to my surprise. I expected it,” Oguzhan Alagoz, an expert in infectious-disease modeling at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, told the Journal-Sentinel.  

[aldie 22]

Just now, jaydreb said:

What spike? This is from Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

“The state said about two dozen people may have been infected on election day,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported on Wednesday. “Some have characterized these numbers as an ‘uptick,’ but the experts are cautious.”

Ryan Westergaard, the chief medical officer at the Department of Health Services, told the paper that a link could not be established between the election and the very small number of cases that had developed among the 413,000 voters who showed up to the polls on April 7.

With the data we have, we can’t prove an association,” Westergaard said. “It would be speculative to say that was definitely the cause without really investigating closely and being clear that somebody really had no other potential exposure to infected people. I don’t think we have the resources to really do that to know definitely.”

“I don’t think that the in-person election led to a major effect, to my surprise. I expected it,” Oguzhan Alagoz, an expert in infectious-disease modeling at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, told the Journal-Sentinel.  

The state just had a single day high reported. What's the typical incubation period for the virus? Probably more testing as mentioned but I'm not positive about that. Just mentioning the one day high and timing. It has to be part of the puzzle we look at as we open back up. My personal opinion is to be more deliberate because if for some ungodly reason we have to shutdown again the result will be worse. I'm glad I'm not in a decision making position. 

[PhineasC]

Have we really seen any clear-cut examples of these supposedly super risky behaviors like being at a beach, in a park, or standing in line to vote leading to huge outbreaks? This sure is a persistent narrative, though. It seems like walking the aisles of Whole Foods is just as risky...

[PhineasC]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

The state just had a single day high reported. What's the typical incubation period for the virus? Probably more testing as mentioned but I'm not positive about that. Just mentioning the one day high and timing. It has to be part of the puzzle we look at as we open back up. My personal opinion is to be more deliberate because if for some ungodly reason we have to shutdown again the result will be worse. I'm glad I'm not in a decision making position. 

Three weeks is a little long. I think most show symptoms in 5-8 days. There are outlier stories of 20 days for some.

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

The state just had a single day high reported. What's the typical incubation period for the virus? Probably more testing as mentioned but I'm not positive about that. Just mentioning the one day high and timing. It has to be part of the puzzle we look at as we open back up. My personal opinion is to be more deliberate because if for some ungodly reason we have to shutdown again the result will be worse. I'm glad I'm not in a decision making position. 

Typical incubation period is 5-8 days.

The state also had a single day high of test results reported today.  So not too surprising that it had a single day high in cases.  

[aldie 22]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Three weeks is a little long. I think most show symptoms in 5-8 days. There are outlier stories of 20 days for some.

I think we need to get going again but I have zero faith in our citizens to be cautious and conscientious. That's why I say the Sweden comparison is bunk because those guys probably have 1. Way less poverty 2. Much more trust in their government. 3. Are more thoughtful in general.  Yes we have that here but we have the opposite in large doses so to me let's kill this beast and then get back at it. I'm dying though...I want out bad just as much as anyone. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I think we need to get going again but I have zero faith in our citizens to be cautious and conscientious. That's why I say the Sweden comparison is bunk because those guys probably have 1. Way less poverty 2. Much more trust in their government. 3. Are more thoughtful in general.  Yes we have that here but we have the opposite in large doses so to me let's kill this beast and then get back at it. I'm dying though...I want out bad just as much as anyone. 

And to be clear I love our country but we sure have some dummies...also if I ever left I'm pretty sure Sweden would be up on the list because it actually snows there....and other reasons 

[Yeoman]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think we need to get going again but I have zero faith in our citizens to be cautious and conscientious. That's why I say the Sweden comparison is bunk because those guys probably have 1. Way less poverty 2. Much more trust in their government. 3. Are more thoughtful in general.  Yes we have that here but we have the opposite in large doses so to me let's kill this beast and then get back at it. I'm dying though...I want out bad just as much as anyone. 

It's not going to be killed until there is a vaccine (which many will be scared to take, so maybe not), or the healthy get out and do the damage through herd immunity while keeping the compromised among us safe in the meantime. 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The lockdowns are not really working to stop the spread, which is why you are still seeing new cases coming in at a consistent clip. This is going to continue until we get to 70% infected and herd immunity takes over. Could take 2 years at this rate while our economy goes down the drain. That's why "daily new cases" is a poor metric for any policy decisions. But this post will get removed soon so read it fast!

We aren’t in a lockdown. I can see route 30 from my house and there is constant traffic. When I take my weekly food trip there are lots of people out. My neighbors job isn’t at all related to national defense but his company has some degree of military contracts at one of their facilities and so they used that to be “essential”. Parks are packed. We didn’t lock down.  We took a half ass measure and called it a lockdown and some people are whining and complaining like that was too much.  What we did was maybe the worst of both worlds. Enough to hurt the economy but not enough to stop the spread. Of course we can’t say that for sure because if every city ended up like NYC the economy would have collapsed anyways.  But either way we have not been willing to implement effective strategies. True lockdowns without 800 exceptions. Universal testing.  Contact tracing. There are things that work. And then there is what we’re doing. 

[PhineasC]

We will pay the same price as Sweden with a second wave that they will avoid because they have herd immunity. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We aren’t in a lockdown. I can see route 30 from my house and there is constant traffic. When I take my weekly food trip there are lots of people out. My neighbors job isn’t at all related to national defense but his company has some degree of military contracts at one of their facilities and so they used that to be “essential”. Parks are packed. We didn’t lock down.  We took a half ass measure and called it a lockdown and some people are whining and complaining like that was too much.  What we did was maybe the worst of both worlds. Enough to hurt the economy but not enough to stop the spread. Of course we can’t say that for sure because if every city ended up like NYC the economy would have collapsed anyways.  But either way we have not been willing to implement effective strategies. True lockdowns without 800 exceptions. Universal testing.  Contact tracing. There are things that work. And then there is what we’re doing. 

We did things that were completely unprecedented in this nation. We are not New Zealand or South Korea so looking at them is utterly pointless. 

[WxUSAF]

Someone posted the thread yesterday, but there are measures showing that the stay at home orders have worked. R has gotten down to ~1 or a bit below it. That suggests if we kept at this indefinitely, we would eliminate transmission. But it would be very slow. Probably a R around 1 is fairly sustainable in terms of hospital capacity. To reduce R below one probably means much higher testing rates and contact tracing followed by quarantines.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

We will pay the same price as Sweden with a second wave that they will avoid because they have herd immunity. 

So the same number of people die like you just said?

[nj2va]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Have we really seen any clear-cut examples of these supposedly super risky behaviors like being at a beach, in a park, or standing in line to vote leading to huge outbreaks? This sure is a persistent narrative, though. It seems like walking the aisles of Whole Foods is just as risky...

This.  Seems like I have a higher chance of getting it at the grocery store than on a golf course, or a local park, etc.  

[WxUSAF]

 

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So the same number of people die like you just said?

You can pay the price now or drag it out for 24 months.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Someone posted the thread yesterday, but there are measures showing that the stay at home orders have worked. R has gotten down to ~1 or a bit below it. That suggests if we kept at this indefinitely, we would eliminate transmission. But it would be very slow. Probably a R around 1 is fairly sustainable in terms of hospital capacity. To reduce R below one probably means much higher testing rates and contact tracing followed by quarantines.

yeah total lockdowns work if we all stay home for 2 years until there is a vaccine. We can also eliminate most skin cancer deaths if we live underground. Good stuff. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We did things that were completely unprecedented in this nation. We are not New Zealand or South Korea so looking at them is utterly pointless. 

On the contrary taking an ineffective action because “we are America” lacks logical consistency. We have the same biology as everyone else. The virus isn’t going to give us some special leniency just because our society is more individualistic than the rest of the world. What works works. What doesn’t doesn’t. The flag in your front yard won’t change that.