mappy Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 +893 cases, +62 deaths +66 new hospitalizations only 3400 tests came back, still way too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April. IHME model has been way out to lunch for a while. It's not accurately modeling the backside of the curve, and at any rate, reopenings are going to complicate things as well as people getting vigilance fatigue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April. I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 More bad numbers for VA today too. Cases just aren't showing any trends in a positive way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Another day and another increase in every metric. What ever happened to "15 days to flatten the curve". I just have this feeling that even if we stay this course the entire month of May the numbers will still keep going up. I don't know what to think anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, H2O said: More bad numbers for VA today too. Cases just aren't showing any trends in a positive way. The one piece of good news that we have right now is that we're not seeing exponential growth, so things are mostly kept at bay. For those who want to reopen, it's not great news right now, but it's a reminder we are staving off something much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. This model was posted in the upstate ny forum. Not sure about its accuracy overall. https://covid19-projections.com/ I mean it's not even just people's actions. We don't even have good data on the initial conditions...how many infected...what's the ifr etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This model was posted in the upstate ny forum. Not sure about its accuracy overall. https://covid19-projections.com/ I mean it's not even just people's actions. We don't even have good data on the initial conditions...how many infected...what's the ifr etc. yeah, ive seen that one too. i dont pay any attention to them, honestly. I agree with you -- the end product is only as good as the data that goes into it. without a complete picture from the get-go, your end result won't be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: Another day and another increase in every metric. What ever happened to "15 days to flatten the curve". I just have this feeling that even if we stay this course the entire month of May the numbers will still keep going up. I don't know what to think anymore. .... we did flatten the curve though. the whole point of staying home and socially distancing is to limit spread and not put a strain on hospitals. the disease still has to run its course through the community, our actions have just slowed that spread to more manageable levels. what to think? what we are doing is WORKING. and people need to keep doing it. you slow the spread, let the disease fizzle out and things will slowly go back to normal. its a marathon, not a sprint. sooner people accept that, the better off everyone is mentally with staying home. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: .... we did flatten the curve though. the whole point of staying home and socially distancing is to limit spread and not put a strain on hospitals. the disease still has to run its course through the community, our actions have just slowed that spread to more manageable levels. what to think? what we are doing is WORKING. and people need to keep doing it. you slow the spread, let the disease fizzle out and things will slowly go back to normal. its a marathon, not a sprint. sooner people accept that, the better off everyone is mentally with staying home. Thank you. I will go with this mentality. I prefer the optimistic viewpoint. I check the numbers everyday at 10 am or as soon as they're updated and every day I am looking for a decrease in the metrics. You are correct - its a marathon and maybe I should check once a week instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 4 hours ago, H2O said: Never hurts to ask questions. Its a strange time for all of us. We are all searching for any info that offers hope that things are getting better. There shouldn't be any ideology when it comes to wanting the people of our country to be safe and healthy. This may be your personal best post over the span of the past 4 years. I admire your shift towards optimism. Well done. 3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: One more thing- how plausible do you all think it is that perhaps the virus was actually here in the US earlier than thought? Community spread was first assumed to be late February, then we found out a woman died on Feb. 6 from community spread, which moved it back to January. What if we find someone who died even earlier? We weren’t testing back then so what if we missed it? I never understand how COVID-19 was already widespread in all 50 states when we started rigorous testing everywhere. Seems like it had to have been here earlier to become so widespread so fast. I still wonder if that’s what my family and I had at the end of December (and what my grandmother had in mid-January). Yes, I know with the current data we have, that’s not possible, but I’ll always wonder about it. I don’t even think an antibody test would solve it, as a positive result doesn’t prove *when* you were infected. I pondered this as my family travelled to NYC in mid Nov then came down with the dry cough/shortness of breath a week later around Thanksgiving. However, I keep saying to myself if this was Covid19 already running rampant in late fall, wouldnt hospitals have been completely overrun and inundated with cases and the need for respirators etc? That alone leads me to believe it was a form of influenza.....OR could this have been/was this the start of the coronavirus spread but it has since mutated into something more vicious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, mappy said: I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. That model is the equivalent of the ICON when forecasting winter storms at 5 day lead times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: Thank you. I will go with this mentality. I prefer the optimistic viewpoint. I check the numbers everyday at 10 am or as soon as they're updated and every day I am looking for a decrease in the metrics. You are correct - its a marathon and maybe I should check once a week instead. dont pay attention to case numbers. with more people being tested statewide, those numbers are going to continue to be going up. and Hogan isn't using that as a metric on reopening the state. pay attention to hospitalizations, and the strain on ICU/Ventilators. that is what Hogan is looking at https://apps.esrgc.org/dashboards/covid/invasiveVentilators/ - ICU/Ventilators dashboard for DC and MD staying positive is the best you can do. I know its frustrating, we are dealing with it in our house too. But if we just keep doing our part, stay home, social distance when we do have to go out.... it will help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Interesting, considering Switzerland’s lead scientist said that children under 10 cannot spread the virus. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I pondered this as my family travelled to NYC in mid Nov then came down with the dry cough/shortness of breath a week later around Thanksgiving. However, I keep saying to myself if this was Covid19 already running rampant in late fall, wouldnt hospitals have been completely overrun and inundated with cases and the need for respirators etc? That alone leads me to believe it was a form of influenza.....OR could this have been/was this the start of the coronavirus spread but it has since mutated into something more vicious? We hadn't done any traveling- it originated at my son's school, he was sent home sick. My kids all had it first- that was the weird part, our infant son was barely sick and for my other two kids it was mild. But it was by far the sickest my wife and I had ever been. I was acutely sick for about two weeks- on day 10 I woke up unable to breathe and almost went to the ER. The weird thing too was I had pink eye in addition to the sore throat, fever and cough. Now I've been reading more and more that pink eye is becoming a known symptom of COVID-19. I get a flu shot every year so I don't think it was the flu. My grandmother got sick in January (probably from us...) and was very ill with fever, dry cough, etc. She also had a flu shot and tested negative for flu when sick- her X-rays showed spots on her lungs (which have now disappeared). She and I both had an unexplained chronic cough for over two months! Fortunately we're all in good health now. I should note that we are all living our lives as if we have NOT had the virus though. Honestly when I look around, it seems like we're one of the few families that is actually still following the guidelines... You mentioned the mutations- I wonder if there's multiple strains, some of which are more aggressive than others. Like what if Italy, Spain and NYC/NJ have a more aggressive strain and CA, Germany, South Korea, etc. have a milder strain? I'm not sure if that's even possible. If there's multiple strains though I would assume the milder one would win through natural selection: i.e. no one knows they have the mild COVID-19 so it spreads faster and crowds out the severe version, while the severe one makes people too sick to get out of bed and spread it (and also provokes strict lockdowns which limit spread). Definitely not an expert on this, so anyone can correct me if I'm wrong. I haven't seen much discussion on this, so maybe it's not possible. I wish we knew how, where and (most importantly) when this virus originated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Gov. Hogan just announced on a livestream with Washington Post that MD National guard has moved the cache of S. Korean test kits to an undisclosed source and is providing 24/7 protection of the kits to prevent any chance of the Feds from "acquiring" the materials. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gov. Hogan just announced on a livestream with Washington Post that MD National guard has moved the cache of S. Korean test kits to an undisclosed source and is providing 24/7 protection of the kits to prevent any chance of the Feds from "acquiring" the materials. I hope they did this re-location correctly. It requires three identical armored trucks to move the kits and only one armored truck has the test kits, and the others are empty. When the trucks get to the city intersection they all go separate routes. Plus a helicopter to track the trucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 ^^sad that's even necessary 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 34 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Interesting, considering Switzerland’s lead scientist said that children under 10 cannot spread the virus. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568 This is a hilarious example of why I said I feel dumber now than two months ago. One study says kids spread it, another expert says they don't. The CDC tells us masks aren't necessary, then they tell us they are. Experts say don't worry about shortages, now shortages are happening. The average person doesn't know what to believe anymore, that's why they panic and hoard toilet paper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: This is a hilarious example of why I said I feel dumber now than two months ago. One study says kids spread it, another says they don't. The CDC tells us masks aren't necessary, then they tell us they are. Experts say don't worry about shortages, now shortages are happening. The average person doesn't know what to believe anymore, that's why they panic and hoard toilet paper. Welcome to the land of studies getting released without peer review. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: This is a hilarious example of why I said I feel dumber now than two months ago. One study says kids spread it, another says they don't. The CDC tells us masks aren't necessary, then they tell us they are. Experts say don't worry about shortages, now shortages are happening. The average person doesn't know what to believe anymore, that's why they panic and hoard toilet paper. Yeah, a lot of conflicting information. As I read it, the Swiss scientist says that kids cannot spread it. The German scientist said that the evidence is inconclusive on whether kids can spread it and that they “may” be able to spread it like adults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Welcome to the land of studies getting released without peer review. This isn’t just a study though. This is the Swiss version of Dr. Fauci saying that the evidence shows that kids can hug their grandparents because kids cannot spread the virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: This isn’t just a study though. This is the Swiss version of Dr. Fauci saying that the evidence shows that kids can hug their grandparents because kids cannot spread the virus. Yeah, I edited my post to put in that it was an expert vs a study and not two actual studies. Point still remains though- two different qualified experts telling us different information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 There's another study I posted earlier in this thread a few days ago showing a 30% reduction in transmission as a result of school closures, though it wasn't clear if it was the school closure or the effect of parents staying home to take care of kids. The data is all over the place for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: I hope they did this re-location correctly. It requires three identical armored trucks to move the kits and only one armored truck has the test kits, and the others are empty. When the trucks get to the city intersection they all go separate routes. Plus a helicopter to track the trucks. Hopefully the Fast and Furious crew are the drivers for the caper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Hopefully the Fast and Furious crew are the drivers for the caper. The movie was "The Italian Job" !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just got a COVID test. Probably a few days too late but the doctor thought it’d be good to know one way or another. Test lasted less than 30 seconds. Results in 2-3 days. Test looks somewhat painful, or at the bare minimum extremely uncomfortable from what I’ve seen, though I’m also a wimp. How was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: The movie was "The Italian Job" !! Dammit. Wrong crew hired. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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