COVID-19 Talk

[ErinInTheSky]

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Do u have a link by chance for the pullback in Ohio?  I've seen May 4th manufacturing/ construction/ offices open up for them. 

The first announcement made it seem like the reopening would be pretty strong on May 1, but his updated timeline definitely spells out a much slower process than some of the other states that have attempted reopening. Can't find a direct source but I could swear they were talking about it on the news yesterday how Ohio's rollout is slower than expected.

 

(I still think the timeline is ridiculous given that they just had their most deaths ever today and they expect opening offices in 5 days).

[Eskimo Joe]

Where are you all getting the national mortality numbers from?

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Where are you all getting the national mortality numbers from?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Today, we eclipsed the 18-19 flu deaths of 61,200.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?

[ThePhotoGuy]

1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Serious/critical patients went up significantly today...I guess one concern could also be that as the weather gets nicer, more people will be out and about. I know going for a walk, bike ride etc isnt frowned upon but the park I work at was rocking today. Probably over 100 ppl. It’s harder to social distance with that kind of crowd. 

Yup. I work at a park too. It has been crazy busy. If it is a nice warm and sunny day, we are getting thousands of people visiting. All the parks in my county have had a huge increase in park visitors the past 2 months.

I made the mistake of visiting Patapsco State Park. It was PACKED today. A couple sections were closed to vehicles and the parking lots that were left were very busy. 

[ErinInTheSky]

15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?

Pennsylvania is testing even less per million than the US average.

So when you aren’t testing, the only metrics you can watch on your success or failure is hospitalizations and deaths.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?

Seems like they've been hovering around the 200 mark lately...not sure what's going on up there, smh

[ErinInTheSky]

4 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Yup. I work at a park too. It has been crazy busy. If it is a nice warm and sunny day, we are getting thousands of people visiting. All the parks in my county have had a huge increase in park visitors the past 2 months.

I made the mistake of visiting Patapsco State Park. It was PACKED today. A couple sections were closed to vehicles and the parking lots that were left were very busy. 

Yeah. Trails were packed too.

 

I’m of the opinion that outdoors crowds can be a significant vector. If for no other reason than the indoors interactions that occur leading to those crowds, or people from different households getting together. I don’t think we will be able to hit that 14 day metric as long as this keeps getting more common.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?

I have a friend who works in a nursing home in Lancaster County and another who is an outpatient nurse at a hospital in Allentown.  They both said it's burning through the older population in the state.

[Baltimorewx]

10 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Yup. I work at a park too. It has been crazy busy. If it is a nice warm and sunny day, we are getting thousands of people visiting. All the parks in my county have had a huge increase in park visitors the past 2 months.

I made the mistake of visiting Patapsco State Park. It was PACKED today. A couple sections were closed to vehicles and the parking lots that were left were very busy. 

Yup, I just work at a park in Baltimore county so it’s not like a huge park, but it’s a nice little park that a lot of people visit 

[WxUSAF]

There’s getting to be quarantine fatigue. I know my family is feeling it and I think the crowd reports from parks is confirming it. NYTimes had an article about it this week as tracked by cell phone data.  Not sure what the answer is, but I think people are going to test limits and push things the longer we go. Especially as weather gets nice.

[jaydreb]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s getting to be quarantine fatigue. I know my family is feeling it and I think the crowd reports from parks is confirming it. NYTimes had an article about it this week as tracked by cell phone data.  Not sure what the answer is, but I think people are going to test limits and push things the longer we go. Especially as weather gets nice.

I think all the talk about opening up soon could have people getting complacent.

[jaydreb]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

I don’t think it’s spreading even close to fast enough to achieve herd immunity in a few months anywhere in the US.  I think cuomo said R0 was less than 1 in nyc currently.  If they just opened back up to business as usual, yes, but with social distancing, no. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

here’s the h1n1 comparison updated 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Just an unreal chart. Over 55,000 lost in just this month. It’s a staggering total made all the more exceptional that the nation essentially shut down during the same period. 

And not to mention just the sheer pace of it...what are we talkin...just 2 months in now? Whereas even some of the worst flu seasons took at least entire season to get to their total (I guess you could 4-6 months? Or do they count it by the calendar year?). This thing has been vicious, smh

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC.   

In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies.  We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country.  The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

[Jebman]

43 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC.   

In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies.  We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country.  The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

Bring that hand sanitizer too, and use it a lot and use it often. Wear a mask, social distance, dont touch your face, and use the hand sanitizer a lot. Even put some on touchpoints in your car! This is what I do.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

All are equally targeted, yes, but why does it cause such severe illness and death in elderly patients but not infants and toddlers? The flu, RSV, etc. are life-threatening if an infant catches them, yet this seems almost non-existent with COVID-19. 

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

But again, this seems to be very rare for other respiratory viruses? It doesn't seem like COVID-19 slows down at all in hotter weather.

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

We're trying to take all the precautions we can... masks, gloves, etc. The office claims to be taking precautions too but I'm skeptical on that part.

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

If it's going to be around all summer, then why would we have another "wave"? We've been adding nearly 30,000 cases a day with no end in sight, and that's only a fraction of the true number of cases (I have no idea what that fraction is; no one really does). If we're doing that all summer and fall, I don't see how you wouldn't have some level of herd immunity. It just seems like it's gonna keep going at this rate until it burns itself out (whenever that may be).

Sometimes I think I should just tune out all the news for several months and see what happens.

[jaydreb]

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All are equally targeted, yes, but why does it cause such severe illness and death in elderly patients but not infants and toddlers? The flu, RSV, etc. are life-threatening if an infant catches them, yet this seems almost non-existent with COVID-19. 

 

But again, this seems to be very rare for other respiratory viruses? It doesn't seem like COVID-19 slows down at all in hotter weather.

 

We're trying to take all the precautions we can... masks, gloves, etc. The office claims to be taking precautions too but I'm skeptical on that part.

 

If it's going to be around all summer, then why would we have another "wave"? We've been adding nearly 30,000 cases a day with no end in sight, and that's only a fraction of the true number of cases (I have no idea what that fraction is; no one really does). If we're doing that all summer and fall, I don't see how you wouldn't have some level of herd immunity. It just seems like it's gonna keep going at this rate until it burns itself out (whenever that may be).

Sometimes I think I should just tune out all the news for several months and see what happens.

I don’t think doctors know for sure why babies don’t seem to suffer severe illness.  I’ve heard a lot of theories but no definitive answers.  Let’s just be thankful that it seems to be the case. 

I don’t think we have enough data at this point to say whether coronavirus does or doesn’t slow down in warm weather.  Just because there are cases in warm weather locations doesn’t mean that the spread isn’t less than it otherwise would have been.  

There will likely be an increase in cases this summer as states start to open back up.  It’s inevitable.  It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t open.  It just means that they need to be properly prepared.  The reference to a second wave in the fall refers to the likelihood that the virus will have a seasonal pattern and we could see a more dramatic uptick in the fall.  We don’t know whether this will be the case but Dr  Fauci has said that it is likely. 

As you’ve noted, this only truly ends when one of three things happens: we reach herd immunity; we have a vaccine; or the virus mutates to a less dangerous form.  Until then we are going to be social distancing, have intermittent shutdowns, etc.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@jaydreb

Yes I’m very thankful the impact on children seems to be mild; I am very concerned for my grandparents though.

I don’t have any political ideology- I just like asking questions. I could probably fill this whole page with things I don’t understand. I feel like I understand less than I did two months ago. It still feels to me like we’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle, or some large underlying assumption about COVID-19 must be wrong. 

[H2O]

6 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@jaydreb

Yes I’m very thankful the impact on children seems to be mild; I am very concerned for my grandparents though.

I don’t have any political ideology- I just like asking questions. I could probably fill this whole page with things I don’t understand. I feel like I understand less than I did two months ago. It still feels to me like we’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle, or some large underlying assumption about COVID-19 must be wrong. 

Never hurts to ask questions.  Its a strange time for all of us.  We are all searching for any info that offers hope that things are getting better.  There shouldn't be any ideology when it comes to wanting the people of our country to be safe and healthy.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

One more thing- how plausible do you all think it is that perhaps the virus was actually here in the US earlier than thought? Community spread was first assumed to be late February, then we found out a woman died on Feb. 6 from community spread, which moved it back to January. What if we find someone who died even earlier? We weren’t testing back then so what if we missed it?

I never understand how COVID-19 was already widespread in all 50 states when we started rigorous testing everywhere. Seems like it had to have been here earlier to become so widespread so fast.

I still wonder if that’s what my family and I had at the end of December (and what my grandmother had in mid-January). Yes, I know with the current data we have, that’s not possible, but I’ll always wonder about it. I don’t even think an antibody test would solve it, as a positive result doesn’t prove *when* you were infected.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

One more thing- how plausible do you all think it is that perhaps the virus was actually here in the US earlier than thought? Community spread was first assumed to be late February, then we found out a woman died on Feb. 6 from community spread, which moved it back to January. What if we find someone who died even earlier? We weren’t testing back then so what if we missed it?

I never understand how COVID-19 was already widespread in all 50 states when we started rigorous testing everywhere. Seems like it had to have been here earlier to become so widespread so fast.

I still wonder if that’s what my family and I had at the end of December (and what my grandmother had in mid-January). Yes, I know with the current data we have, that’s not possible, but I’ll always wonder about it. I don’t even think an antibody test would solve it, as a positive result doesn’t prove *when* you were infected.

It almost certainly was IMO.  A woman who traveled from DC to Italy in early February came back with classic symptoms had a positive antibody test.  Given the amount of international travel that occurs to/from our region it was probably spreading here by early to mid February if not earlier. 

[mappy]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Is “plateau or flattening” a change? I thought it was a drop originally. But it hasn’t dropped at all yet has it? So we haven’t even entered that 14 day countdown?

I do not believe we have started that countdown yet. 

[North Balti Zen]

11 hours ago, jaydreb said:

I think all the talk about opening up soon could have people getting complacent.

Sure. And, also the need to feed their families.

[ErinInTheSky]

18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sure. And, also the need to feed their families.

The economics are going to make people desperate. This whole situation is just a ticking time bomb on multiple fronts. It's really scary TBH.

[jaydreb]

25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sure. And, also the need to feed their families.

The context of the discussion was all the people out and about and in close contact at parks, trails, lakes, etc.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available.   It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.