COVID-19 Talk

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, wxtrix said:

they should get doctor’s notes right away and consult with an attorney if that’s feasible for them.

my husband’s company has already acknowledged that some folks are going to have to work remotely until there is a vaccine. but most companies aren’t going to automatically make those accommodations, so people in high risk groups need to prepare.

Most of these peeps are minimum wage friends of mine and people with large families and low paying jobs in the South - I'm from Louisiana and lived in Texas for a while. "Consulting with an attorney" is something rich northerners do, lol.

[ErinInTheSky]

That said I realized you said "if it's feasible."

 

IDK, I just know a lot of people who are susceptible are stuck in a bad place and that this idea that people keep pushing about segregating them out just isn't happening.

[mappy]

 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

This is true. Although it is a bit of an informed one, as finding experts who will pass Daubert (or Frye-Reed here in Maryland) and be able to offer opinion testimony in court is something I am REALLY familiar with, professionally speaking and what not.

As am I. I also know that both sides in an action of some sort have their experts. We used to call them hired guns. lol

[mappy]

ESRGC, a GIS Coop from SU created this really nice dashboard for MD/DC Ventilator usage

https://apps.esrgc.org/dashboards/covid/invasiveVentilators/

 

so proud of these guys, and i may be a bit bias as they hired me right out of college

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

but the guy you posted about is literally not an infectious disease expert. there is no “both sides” here.

I know that. I don't know this guy from Adam. But I like to keep an open mind about things. There is no "expert" on the COVID 19 that I'm aware of atpt. Seems to me it's a learning experience for everyone.There will be of course hopefully very soon but not being labeled an "Expert" doesn't necessarily mean you're wrong about something. 

[OSUmetstud]

I saw an interview with Dr. David Katz on Bill Mahar and he seemed to suggest similar, protecting the vulnerable as opposed to a more "carpetbombing" type lockdown policy for everybody. I don't know how you pull of something like that practically speaking. 

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I saw an interview with Dr. David Katz on Bill Mahar and he seemed to suggest similar, protecting the vulnerable as opposed to a more "carpetbombing" type lockdown policy for everybody. I don't know how you pull of something like that practically speaking. 

Makes too much sense.. and there are already programs available to provide necessities for the home-bound infirmed and elderly which could be expanded. 

Then again on my runs I see just as many older people out and about in DC as I see younger folks.. One 80+ year old in my building said she's got too few years left to be endlessly cooped up in the condo and will take her chances going out and seeing family while following guidelines.. I would guess many her age share that sentiment. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Makes too much sense.. and there are already programs available to provide necessities for the home-bound infirmed and elderly which could be expanded. 

Then again on my runs I see just as many older people out and about in DC as I see younger folks.. One 80+ year old in my building said she's got too few years left to be endlessly cooped up in the condo and will take her chances going out and seeing family while following guidelines.. I would guess many her age share that sentiment. 

eh...maybe. Its interesting, at least. There's a lot of people who live with their older relatives, how do you deal with that? What is the risk point where it is decided that this person is vulnerable enough to be broken off the general population and dealt with differently? 

[Eskimo Joe]

IMO, it seems that Maryland and DC are are the peak and Phase 1 re-opening between May 10th - 18th appear reasonable.

[Yeoman]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

eh...maybe. Its interesting, at least. There's a lot of people who live with their older relatives, how do you deal with that? What is the risk point where it is decided that this personal is vulnerable enough to be broken off the general population and dealt with differently? 

I don't know, what's the impact of poverty, unemployment, food supply disruptions, school closings, etc on the well being of our society? These factors need to be taken into consideration when making policy decisions going forward, not just the numbers coming out of the models related to the virus. Unfortunately in this environment during an election year there will always be a political angle if the govt is making the decisions, regardless of which side you're on. 

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I don't know, what's the impact of poverty, unemployment, food supply disruptions, school closings, etc on the well being of our society? These factors need to be taken into consideration when making policy decisions going forward, not just the numbers coming out of the models related to the virus. Unfortunately in this environment during an election year there will always be a political angle if the govt is making the decisions, regardless of which side you're on. 

They are though, for better or for worse. If it was all about safety from the virus we would just stay locked down until there's a vaccine. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

A jump in hospitalizations...

 

 

[Yeoman]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

They are though, for better or for worse. If it was all about safety from the virus we would just stay locked down until there's a vaccine. 

How are things in Canada?

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Yeoman said:

How are things in Canada?

Great here, but things are pretty bad in Quebec. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

That said I realized you said "if it's feasible."

 

IDK, I just know a lot of people who are susceptible are stuck in a bad place and that this idea that people keep pushing about segregating them out just isn't happening.

This situation is exposing some things about our society that have been a problem for a really long time...but now are even more glaringly obvious.  There are a LOT of people who frankly are stuck in a bad place in general in life without must compassion, empathy and assistance at the societal level for their situation.  Even under the best of times they are struggle to just get bye and survive.  Add in any crisis, economic or health and they are always on the edge of big trouble.  We have a very top down labor policy.  Without getting into the weeds we would solve a lot of these chronic issues by having a more bottom up labor policy that valued individuals and their very common needs more.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I don't know, what's the impact of poverty, unemployment, food supply disruptions, school closings, etc on the well being of our society? These factors need to be taken into consideration when making policy decisions going forward, not just the numbers coming out of the models related to the virus. Unfortunately in this environment during an election year there will always be a political angle if the govt is making the decisions, regardless of which side you're on. 

Ok I know this is teetering on the edge and could fly off into way over the line if we aren't careful...but I find it somewhat "disingenuous" that most of the people making this argument right now for why we need to get back to work don't seem to care a lick about the negative effects of poverty under normal circumstances.   Many of the people using poverty as a reason for their policy advocacy now try to block any attempt at social programs to deal with poverty when they are proposed in every other situation.  I am NOT saying that is you...I have no idea what your stance on this stuff is...but in general my twitter feed and fb wall is filled with people ive argued with for years and who never gave a single F about doing a thing about poverty suddenly all upset about it now.  

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This situation is exposing some things about our society that have been a problem for a really long time...but now are even more glaringly obvious.  There are a LOT of people who frankly are stuck in a bad place in general in life without must compassion, empathy and assistance at the societal level for their situation.  Even under the best of times they are struggle to just get bye and survive.  Add in any crisis, economic or health and they are always on the edge of big trouble.  We have a very top down labor policy.  Without getting into the weeds we would solve a lot of these chronic issues by having a more bottom up labor policy that valued individuals and their very common needs more.  

All disasters do this, people choose to ignore them.  It's a persistent issue in the emergency management field.  This particular event is really pulling the curtains back. The challenge to reduce or eliminate the economic and societal inequalities starts in neighborhoods with people deciding to care about their fellow residents.  Until that happens, nothing will change. 

[SnowGolfBro]

13 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I don't know, what's the impact of poverty, unemployment, food supply disruptions, school closings, etc on the well being of our society? These factors need to be taken into consideration when making policy decisions going forward, not just the numbers coming out of the models related to the virus. Unfortunately in this environment during an election year there will always be a political angle if the govt is making the decisions, regardless of which side you're on. 

It is a really complex question.  We have almost achieved Great Depression level unemployment in a mere 6 weeks of Covid policies.  But on the flip side there have been nearly 60000 deaths in the country with more on the horizon.  We tend to get into shouting matches taking sides on this thread (I am certainly guilty of that).  But at the end of the day we are all assessing these challenging times and trying to figure out how we strike the right balance moving forward.  The answer is somewhere between life back to normal immediately and lockdown (stay at home, keep businesses closed by law) for 12-18 months until there is a vaccine.  There is an optimal solution in that vast grey area.  Trying to figure it out is the challenge.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All disasters do this, people choose to ignore them.  It's a persistent issue in the emergency management field.  This particular event is really pulling the curtains back. The challenge to reduce or eliminate the economic and societal inequalities starts in neighborhoods with people deciding to care about their fellow residents.  Until that happens, nothing will change. 

Couldn't agree more.  Someone the other day in a covid policy discussion criticized me for "being too empathetic".  As if empathy is a bad thing... 

[psuhoffman]

We are starting to see a lot of "anecdotal" arguments flying around under the pretense of a qualified medical opinion simply by having a "dr" as the mouthpeace of said opinion.  There were the 2 California Doctors who own the clinics the other day...but their "cited" study was a sham and the vast majority of the medical community invalidated their findings.  There will always be dissent.  Finding the 1% of "experts" who disagree with the vast majority and holding them up as expert proof is dodgy at best.  Now that does not mean their contrarian challenges should be dismissed out of hand...but their challenges need to be examined carefully and put through scientific testing not just accepted with equal weight to the vast majority.   The "two sided" aspect of our society wrt news and ideology tends to hurt us here...as we sometimes value giving "both sides" of a story more weight than simply finding the best most likely answer to something. 

 

[Vice-Regent]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I know this is teetering on the edge and could fly off into way over the line if we aren't careful...but I find it somewhat "disingenuous" that most of the people making this argument right now for why we need to get back to work don't seem to care a lick about the negative effects of poverty under normal circumstances.   Many of the people using poverty as a reason for their policy advocacy now try to block any attempt at social programs to deal with poverty when they are proposed in every other situation.  I am NOT saying that is you...I have no idea what your stance on this stuff is...but in general my twitter feed and fb wall is filled with people ive argued with for years and who never gave a single F about doing a thing about poverty suddenly all upset about it now.  

I always figured you were more conservative. Good for you man there are some good things to say about you now that we see your true colors. With that said Democracies and Capitalism don't blend well. It's really an odd blend yet it's the normative state. Dog eat Dog and Equality don't blend well.

[ErinInTheSky]

That change in total hospitalizations is not promising. We are at the highest total current hospitalizations since this pandemic started now. This likely means that we have not peaked in deaths, and in fact, a certain percentage of those hospitalizations will lead to deaths 1-3 weeks down the line.

[psuhoffman]

Lastly...I am not in favor of simply "lock us down forever" policies.  We need to come up with a solvent plan for society to function and survive.  It very well might be time to start some new strategies soon.  But I am VERY concerned with using shoddy logic and bad science to inform those strategies.  I also have some concerns based on what I know about our society, with implementing some of these best practices in a way fair and equitable to everyone.   I brought up my concern regarding "what to do with the at risk population" if we go to a phased opening scenario.  And sure enough...we are now seeing this play out where the answer is..."well you can choose to stay home if you are at high risk but don't expect any help, good luck".   I guess I would be more open to entertaining some of the arguments for a quicker relaxation of mitigation measures if I had more faith that they would actually implement equitable measures to assist the vulnerable populations that strategy will create.  But we are already seeing that isn't likely to happen in many areas.  I can't help but feel some of these arguments lack integrity.  Its a "throw any point I can think of at the wall to meet my agenda" type thing...because when it comes time to implement a preferred policy it doesn't happen with the care and compassion that it is sold in these types of debates. 

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

That change in total hospitalizations is not promising. We are at the highest total current hospitalizations since this pandemic started now. This likely means that we have not peaked in deaths, and in fact, a certain percentage of those hospitalizations will lead to deaths 1-3 weeks down the line.

The only region of the US that is flattening the curve is probably NYC because they started so early.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

I always figured you were more conservative. Good for you man there are some good things to say about you now that we see your true colors. With that said Democracies and Capitalism don't blend well. It's really an odd blend yet it's the normative state. Dog eat Dog and Equality don't blend well.

lol... all these years you thought I criticized you because you are liberal?  Try again

[Yeoman]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I know this is teetering on the edge and could fly off into way over the line if we aren't careful...but I find it somewhat "disingenuous" that most of the people making this argument right now for why we need to get back to work don't seem to care a lick about the negative effects of poverty under normal circumstances.   Many of the people using poverty as a reason for their policy advocacy now try to block any attempt at social programs to deal with poverty when they are proposed in every other situation.  I am NOT saying that is you...I have no idea what your stance on this stuff is...but in general my twitter feed and fb wall is filled with people ive argued with for years and who never gave a single F about doing a thing about poverty suddenly all upset about it now.  

I volunteer at the DC Central Kitchen and Arlington VA Food Bank multiple times a year as part of our company's community give back program. The Arlington Food Bank is running 400% higher in volume month over month.. and this is in one of the richest counties in the US. I can't imagine the rural impacts.. 

All I'm saying is that we need to continue an approach that takes all factors into consideration, and begin to let people use their own judgment and take their own risks as to how they go about their daily lives. 

[mappy]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All disasters do this, people choose to ignore them.  It's a persistent issue in the emergency management field.  This particular event is really pulling the curtains back. The challenge to reduce or eliminate the economic and societal inequalities starts in neighborhoods with people deciding to care about their fellow residents.  Until that happens, nothing will change. 

This. As an example, for whatever reason, it took six weeks for a Hereford Zone school to have meals available for kids in need (yes, there are kids in the hereford zone who rely on meals from schools). SIX WEEKS. In the meantime the Hereford Food Bank and My Neighbor Foundation provided meals, on top of whatever local stores donated (Grauls has been donating bread for weeks). 

1. it shouldn't have taken that long for meals to be available for students in this area, but 2. the community came together to make sure kids had what they needed. 

[jaydreb]

Some potential good news on the therapeutic front.  It is expected that Fauci/NIH will discuss the results at today’s briefing. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gilead-maker-of-remdesivir-says-its-aware-of-positive-data-from-coronavirus-treatment-study/ar-BB13mQLe

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Some potential good news on the therapeutic front.  It is expected that Fauci/NIH will discuss the results at today’s briefing. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gilead-maker-of-remdesivir-says-its-aware-of-positive-data-from-coronavirus-treatment-study/ar-BB13mQLe

While it's a potentially good sign, folks really need to understand some key points:

1.) This is likely not going to be a vaccine.  In the history of Coronavirus vaccine research, there is no working vaccine for any derivative of Coronavirus.

2.) This is likely going to be a step forward in the treatment protocol but won't be commercially available for at least 6 months, even with all the red tape cut. The physical act of production takes a long time.

3.) Whatever happens with an eventual treatment first, it will initially go to hospitals for treating the most dire cases.