SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: of course people have recognized pandemics throughout time. 20 of the worst epidemics and pandemics in history https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html Yeah I know humanity has registered pandemics, but this one is largely killing people who would’ve otherwise been dead in the year 1,000. How long did people live back then, 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I know humanity has registered pandemics, but this one is largely killing people who would’ve otherwise been dead in the year 1,000. How long did people live back then, 50? Probably closer 30 in the year 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: this is a good, and short, discussion of the issue. Human Lifespans Nearly Constant for 2,000 Years https://www.livescience.com/10569-human-lifespans-constant-2-000-years.html not gonna lie, saw the headline and was about to say that the article must be crazy. Read that and it made a lot of sense! I'm still skeptical it's truly constant -- I feel like modern medicine must have a non-negligible effect -- but a ton of deaths at age "0" certainty would bring the average down sharply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: not gonna lie, saw the headline and was about to say that the article must be crazy. Read that and it made a lot of sense! I'm still skeptical it's truly constant -- I feel like modern medicine must have a non-negligible effect -- but a ton of deaths at age "0" certainty would bring the average down sharply. Makes sense, I’d be interested to know how old the average adult made it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not gonna lie, saw the headline and was about to say that the article must be crazy. Read that and it made a lot of sense! I'm still skeptical it's truly constant -- I feel like modern medicine must have a non-negligible effect -- but a ton of deaths at age "0" certainty would bring the average down sharply. It's effectual in so far as prolonging the life of someone who is chronically sick but has done nothing in terms of raising or extending the maximum life expectancy for the individual. Hope it makes more sense now The world is not always what we want it to be unless you understand reality and can begin to shift it to your will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, wxtrix said: then how did Socrates live to be 70 in 399 BCE? It was largely due to the infant mortality rate during that time. So you had people living into their 50s and 60s and exceptions like Socrates who git 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, wxtrix said: this is a good, and short, discussion of the issue. Human Lifespans Nearly Constant for 2,000 Years https://www.livescience.com/10569-human-lifespans-constant-2-000-years.html Wrong http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/life_history/age-specific-mortality-lifespan-bad-science-2009.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Over the course of history most people either died at birth (baby or mom) or from infectious diseases. Reducing infant mortality and drastically reducing infectious disease are the two main reasons for increased life expectancy. Even if you disregard infant mortality, most people still wouldn't make it to 75 because of infectious diseases. The idea that lifespan has been constant for 2000 years is ridiculous clickbait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Over the course of history most people either died at birth (baby or mom) or from infectious diseases. Reducing infant mortality and drastically reducing infectious disease are the two main reasons for increased life expectancy. Even if you disregard infant mortality, most people still wouldn't make it to 75 because of infectious diseases. The idea that lifespan has been constant for 2000 years is ridiculous clickbait. Yep. The author's claim is contradicted by his own numbers: "According to the National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy for men in 1907 was 45.6 years; by 1957 it rose to 66.4; in 2007 it reached 75.5. Unlike the most recent increase in life expectancy... the increase in life expectancy between 1907 and 2007 was largely due to a decreasing infant mortality rate."* But with life expectancy at birth of 46 years and infant mortality of 10%, the life expectancy excluding infant mortality is still at most 51 years. So in fact we gained about 5 years of life expectancy from decreased infant mortality and 25 years from other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yep. The author's claim is contradicted by his own numbers: "According to the National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy for men in 1907 was 45.6 years; by 1957 it rose to 66.4; in 2007 it reached 75.5. Unlike the most recent increase in life expectancy... the increase in life expectancy between 1907 and 2007 was largely due to a decreasing infant mortality rate."* But with life expectancy at birth of 46 years and infant mortality of 10%, the life expectancy excluding infant mortality is still at most 51 years. So in fact we gained about 5 years of life expectancy from decreased infant mortality and 25 years from other factors. No. This is a well known demography/quant sociology/stats problem. Lifespan was shorter 100 years ago, yes, but not by that much. There were PLENTY of old people. Here's a really good chart to use: https://www.infoplease.com/us/mortality/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011 You can see how long you could be expected to continue living at any one point in time. So for instance, you could expect to make it to around 65.6 in 1919. If you made it to 40, you were probably making it to 70. Lots of things killed you young back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, supernovasky said: No. This is a well known demography/quant sociology/stats problem. Lifespan was shorter 100 years ago, yes, but not by that much. There were PLENTY of old people. Here's a really good chart to use: https://www.infoplease.com/us/mortality/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011 You can see how long you could be expected to continue living at any one point in time. So for instance, you could expect to make it to around 65.6 in 1919. If you made it to 40, you were probably making it to 70. Lots of things killed you young back then. I don’t know. Seems like a pretty big difference just between 1850 and present day. A typical 40 year old back then could expect to make it to around 70. Present day would be around 80. That’s around a 15% increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I don’t know. Seems like a pretty big difference just between 1850 and present day. A typical 40 year old back then could expect to make it to around 70. Present day would be around 80. That’s around a 15% increase. And biologically speaking a VERY short period of time when the sample size is in the billions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 i... dont even know what to do with this thread anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 9 hours ago, snowfan said: Serious question......how many of you are truly missing something that's been closed? Haircut? I cut mine. It looks as good as youd get at sport clips Car maintenance? Yes for the big things. I can change my own brakes, oil, filters, plugs, etc. Car wash? No. I'll wash my own. Dentist/Dr? Yes, for general apts. All other places I generally visit have been open the entire time. Grocery store, gas station, restaurants w pick up, spirits, Lowe's/home depot/garden store, bike store. I'm 3 weeks overdue for a bang trim. so that would be good to have right now. Also, I'm 2 weeks from finishing up a 7-month stint with clear aligners. I really hope I can go back to the dentist next month and make sure everything realigned okay. I've never been more excited to get the all clear from the dentist (and to have a much nicer smile!) 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy I’m the social studies content lead for Balt City summer school and as of right now we are tentatively developing a plan to deliver summer credit recovery online. I don’t know what the counties are thinking but any return to physical school seems unlikely before the fall at the earliest in the city. we received an email last night from the principle of mini-maps school. Teachers will be required to meet with their class twice this week, then once a day starting next week until whenever. makes me think they are planning for no more school in classrooms this academic year. which many of us expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 50 minutes ago, mappy said: i... dont even know what to do with this thread anymore. It’s an entertaining read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: It’s an entertaining read! every morning when i sit down with a cup of coffee and see pages of new posts... i mentally prepare myself for face palms, hidden posts and stupid childish back and forth. 2 out of 3 this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 8 hours ago, wxtrix said: can you provide me with a link that proves this? Challenge yourself to a little research of your own. And don’t just look for stuff that will prove you right. Royalty and nobility would certainly have lived longer lives than peasants in the year 1000. Hint most people were peasants back then. But if you are seriously arguing that life expectancy has remain unchanged for the last thousand years, don’t let me talk you out of it. Watch out for the golfers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Challenge yourself to a little research of your own. And don’t just look for stuff that will prove you right. Royalty and nobility would certainly have lived longer lives than peasants in the year 1000. Hint most people were peasants back then. But if you are seriously arguing that life expectancy has remain unchanged for the last thousand years, don’t let me talk you out of it. Watch out for the golfers! No, thats not how this works. If you present something as fact, it is on you to prove it. not us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: i... dont even know what to do with this thread anymore. Shut it down. Everybody needs a break from this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Shut it down. Everybody needs a break from this crap its an option ive already considered. but then the discussion will carry over to the banter thread because people need to be able to talk about it. so, for sake of not cluttering that thread up with it, discussion will stay here. but you guys need to do better at moderating yourselves. learn to ignore posts you dont agree with instead of replying and creating tension 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i presented scholarly work to prove my point. your ignorant chattering doesn’t refute 1 word i posted. could have done without the second sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: it’s the absolute truth. the thread would be improved if he were denied access to post in it. i can’t see where he’s added anything factual to it. I'm not going to deny him the ability to post in the thread. Keep asking for facts, without the need to call him names. I've asked this of you once, please try harder to refrain from the insults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 try again in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 IHME model has jumped up to 74k projected deaths. And they state that's with lockdowns being maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 +626 cases, +71 deaths in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: +626 cases, +71 deaths in MD. I'm seeing +906 cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: +626 cases, +71 deaths in MD. Only +15 new hospitalizations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm seeing +906 cases That's yesterday. For some reason, their site always has a lag in updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm seeing +906 cases refresh the page. its 626 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 not even 3K test results came back yesterday... seems low, over 8k yesterday came back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts