COVID-19 Talk

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

As long as the virus is out there, the economy is going to suffer.  We could open everyone’s doors next month and tell them that they are free to reopen everything but do you think people are going to the movies, traveling on planes, eating at crowded restaurants, etc.?  There is no economic recovery until we have a vaccine or an effective therapeutic.

I think you are under estimating the resiliency of Americans. Will it curtail the activities? Most definitely. But will people continually shut down everything in fear of the virus? No. We will see a testing of the waters by many on the first week or two but after that they will start diving right back in after they see no disaster has befallen them. 

[H2O]

That same resiliency you speak of will be what pulls us out of any economic crisis we deal with while trying to stamp out the virus. 
 

It pains me to see people think these “meds” some are pushing as cures or mitigators have yet to be proven on a wide clinical basis. It’s like the guy selling tonic water back in the 1800s. Unproven. 
 

Listen to the scientists, not the politicians. 

[PhineasC]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

lol @ the comments about economy vs lives.  Yes, we should sacrifice granny to keep the Dow strong.  

 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

but but in 10 years when we look back we will wonder why we crashed the economy? only 100,000 people died! 

 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Granny lived a long life. Time for her to make the sacrifice for my 401k.

Oh, the sh*theads are here. My signal to ignore this subforum again. Bye.

[CAPE]

Someone got triggered. 

[Wonderdog]

35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mitigating the spread is what will get it done.

Yes but the administration and the business community will probably jump the gun with the proviso that we keep up with the social distancing; possibly masks; hand washing etc.

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

That same resiliency you speak of will be what pulls us out of any economic crisis we deal with while trying to stamp out the virus. 
 

It pains me to see people think these “meds” some are pushing as cures or mitigators have yet to be proven on a wide clinical basis. It’s like the guy selling tonic water back in the 1800s. Unproven. 
 

Listen to the scientists, not the politicians. 

Actually I am starting to believe there is something to cosequine and these other Malaria drugs. But it still doesn't change the fact that it is not a cure. And if we let the infection rate overwhelm the medical systems they do very little good if we can't administer them to many of the patients that may need them due to lack of bed space. Not even sure what type of supplies we do have as far as these drugs. Might not be in sufficient quantities to come close to meeting our needs. Really at this point we are doing the best thing possible with social distancing ignoring all other possible factors.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Someone got triggered. 

Knew you were a bitter old man but a sh*thead? Never knew. 

[Wonderdog]

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

That same resiliency you speak of will be what pulls us out of any economic crisis we deal with while trying to stamp out the virus. 
 

It pains me to see people think these “meds” some are pushing as cures or mitigators have yet to be proven on a wide clinical basis. It’s like the guy selling tonic water back in the 1800s. Unproven. 
 

Listen to the scientists, not the politicians. 

Well they are underway now. I don't know how long trials are, what 1-3 months?

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think you are under estimating the resiliency of Americans. Will it curtail the activities? Most definitely. But will people continually shut down everything in fear of the virus? No. We will see a testing of the waters by many on the first week or two but after that they will start diving right back in after they see no disaster has befallen them. 

There will be some hesitation but it wont take long. The tricky part is exactly when do we "reopen"? 

Maybe a good ol' early season heat ridge will help quell fears of a re occurrence as the cases dwindle.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There will be some hesitation but it wont take long. The tricky part is exactly when do we "reopen"? 

Maybe a good ol' early season heat ridge will help quell fears of a re occurrence as the cases dwindle.

Probably be staggered process.

[jaydreb]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think you are under estimating the resiliency of Americans. Will it curtail the activities? Most definitely. But will people continually shut down everything in fear of the virus? No. We will see a testing of the waters by many on the first week or two but after that they will start diving right back in after they see no disaster has befallen them. 

I don’t think everything will be shutdown, but I also don’t think we are going to be seeing things like MLB, college football and the NFL with live audiences, if at all.  I hope I’m wrong.  

[NorthArlington101]

Actually I am starting to believe there is something to cosequine and these other Malaria drugs. But it still doesn't change the fact that it is not a cure. And if we let the infection rate overwhelm the medical systems they do very little good if we can't administer them to many of the patients that may need them due to lack of bed space. Not even sure what type of supplies we do have as far as these drugs. Might not be in sufficient quantities to come close to meeting our needs. Really at this point we are doing the best thing possible with social distancing ignoring all other possible factors.

If it becomes clear as day that HCQ and the other anti-malaria drugs are a solid remedy, than I’d expect to see things return somewhat to normal around July, with lockdowns beginning again in any area that starts to challenge its ICU capacity.

 

Don’t see any way for this to fully end until we find a vaccine, though.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Well they are underway now. I don't know how long trials are, what 1-3 months?

Trials can last years I believe. That is part of the red tape and regs I have mentioned on previous posts. We are going to see a relaxation of this though. Just no way around it. Time just does not afford us the luxury of extensive tests.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Probably be staggered process.

It could happen in stages, but it will be a bit tricky to execute. Summer, people want to travel, good deals on airfare. NY may be approaching zero new cases by mid May, but here and other places that likely won't be the case.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Probably be staggered process.

Most definitely. We are seeing the peaks of infection spread out over a month or more through different portions of the region. It will be a process where we see states relaxing things a week or two beyond the peak where the numbers argue we won't see a substantial bump up in infection rates. Rates of new infections where the state can quickly jump in and quarantine the new infections.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Knew you were a bitter old man but a sh*thead? Never knew. 

Bitter, yes.

 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I don’t think everything will be shutdown, but I also don’t think we are going to be seeing things like MLB, college football and the NFL with live audiences, if at all.  I hope I’m wrong.  

That will probably be one of the hardest industries to get back on line. But that too will hopefully get back to a somewhat semblance of normalcy towards the fall. But that will be somewhat dependent on what we see as far as a secondary wave if it in fact exists.

[Inverted_Trough]

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just stop. There are so many variables involved here to try to figure out why things went better in some countries and worse in others will probably only be determined after the fact with much study (I pointed out a few days ago some reasons why I thought Italy may have been hit harder). It may be nothing more then having to do with genetics. I know you are so desperately trying to disparage our current administration but to deny that most if not all of this could have been avoided for the US and even for a good chunk of the world if we would have that extra month plus warning is just folly.

And about those test kits that everyone is going on about? While they are useful at any given time during a pandemic, they are far more useful and key at the very beginning when you have small individual cases where you can far more easily contain an outbreak. I think we are going to find that by the time we were aware of the problem that it was far too late as we were already into community spread where containment measures were no longer feasible. 

And need I remind you of the study that suggested only a 3% infection rate (I don't believe it myself). But if that is truly the case we are looking at a major win for this administration especially after the 24/7 dooms day scenarios of millions dead thrown out by the media on a daily basis. And before you go, 'But, but, but the second wave'. All I can say is let's deal with the first problem first. I think we are going to find that we will mostly be alright for any follow up.

eta: Seeing as you keep bringing up S Korea as evidence that the US failed I think I will take a hard look into them. Have a feeling you might not like my conclusions with some of things I already do know.

eta: I see PhineasC answered you. Notice all the variables? Still will probably take a look at it anyway.

We had an extra month.  The virus was already here in January.  We were too busy bungling tests and telling ourselves "it's just the flu" while the virus was spreading in the midst.

The millions of dead scenario is based on no social distancing (i.e. no shutdown).  Now that we're socially distancing, we're never going to approach those numbers thank goodness.  The current administration finally relented and started listening to 'experts' -- about a month too late, but better late than never.  The "it's just the flu" crowd and some of the MAGAs are not happy with this decision, though.

[showmethesnow]

23 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Yes but the administration and the business community will probably jump the gun with the proviso that we keep up with the social distancing; possibly masks; hand washing etc.

Businesses yes, not so sure about the administration as of yet. They have been hinting at an earlier time frame the last several weeks then I am somewhat comfortable with but that has been pushed back several times to where I now believe they are suggesting the end of April. This is within my projected time frame from above but I do believe that may still be a week or two early.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Knew you were a bitter old man but a sh*thead? Never knew. 

I believe that's his code word for "librul". 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Businesses yes, not so sure about the administration as of yet. They have been hinting at an earlier time frame the last several weeks then I am somewhat comfortable with but that has been pushed back several times to where I now believe they are suggesting the end of April. This is within my projected time frame from above but I do believe that may still be a week or two early.

One essential requirement for "reopening" the economy- which we still don't have- is widely available, fast testing. IMO it would be very difficult to execute otherwise.

[mappy]

58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

 

Oh, the sh*theads are here. My signal to ignore this subforum again. Bye.

take care!

[mappy]

MD updates of 10am

seeing chatter online about cases being lower than the previous day. don't let this lure you into a false sense of security. confirmed tests are lagged due to the time it takes a test to come back with a result. numbers we see today are from those who were tested last week, if not longer. 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

MD updates of 10am

seeing chatter online about cases being lower than the previous day. don't let this lure you into a false sense of security. confirmed tests are lagged due to the time it takes a test to come back with a result. numbers we see today are from those who were tested last week, if not longer. 

 

 Talbot county recorded the first COVID death over the weekend.

[mappy]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

 Talbot county recorded the first COVID death over the weekend.

yeah, someone on twitter commented that the eastern shore wasn't reflected correctly in the map/data. there are more confirmed cases in the county, plus the death. im going to reach out to someone and see if i can get an answer.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

We had an extra month.  The virus was already here in January.  We were too busy bungling tests and telling ourselves "it's just the flu" while the virus was spreading in the midst.

The millions of dead scenario is based on no social distancing (i.e. no shutdown).  Now that we're socially distancing, we're never going to approach those numbers thank goodness.  The current administration finally relented and started listening to 'experts' -- about a month too late, but better late than never.  The "it's just the flu" crowd and some of the MAGAs are not happy with this decision, though.

You are a lost cause. After this post I am pretty much done responding to you. Can't argue/debate someone that selectively chooses which facts he wants to believe and which they want to ignore all for the sake of their hatred for one man.

Now I am going to leave a departing comment to put in perspective your dismisissing/defending of China.

China basically gave the rest of the world the big old middle finger with withholding this information on the virus a month+. And that is probably understating what they did considering we are talking 100's of thousands, if not millions of deaths can be laid at their door. This doesn't even take in account they have basically shut down a majority of the world for several months. And if reports of earlier cases in November are in fact true there is the potential that China was even aware of this problem upwards of 3 months before releasing that.

Now there is one important thing to consider here, motives. After all you have to understand the motives behind such a blatant disregard for the rest of the world.

First, it could be nothing more then the fact that they were embarrassed at the fact they could not contain this. After all, image in the eye's of others is very important within their Culture. Let's just say, if this was the case then it is probably one of the stupidest reasons for signing the death of so many.

But second, we could have also seen them trying to cover up a mishap with their level 4 bio-lab that they did not want to become known. I guess that is a more worth while reason though still stupid in the extreme.

But now let's consider a third. What if in fact they were hit much harder then they are letting on. So hard that they would have dropped a peg or two in the World order. This would be absolutely unacceptable to the CCP who has been striding so hard over the last several decades to become the World Power. This is a China that had reached a point in strength where they felt they could get away with expansionism/imperialism without outside interference from the other world powers as we have seen over the last few years. To get knocked back down was not an option so they took the recourse of allowing this virus to spread world wide to knock down their competitors as well to once again put everyone on an even footing. This scenario should scare the Hell out of any sane human being. After all China has nukes for God's sake.

Now I try to look at the best in people so I would like to believe that it was the first case, no matter how stupid, that was the driving force with with holding this information. But I can tell you right now the information that has been leaking out really is starting to make me favor the other two options. I just hope for the world's sake it wasn't the third. Because if it is, it doesn't bode well for our future.

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah, someone on twitter commented that the eastern shore wasn't reflected correctly in the map/data. there are more confirmed cases in the county, plus the death. im going to reach out to someone and see if i can get an answer.

 

[Wonderdog]

51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It could happen in stages, but it will be a bit tricky to execute. Summer, people want to travel, good deals on airfare. NY may be approaching zero new cases by mid May, but here and other places that likely won't be the case.

A lot of moving parts.

[jaydreb]

Fairly dramatic shift on the model being used by the government, incorporating more recent data, with overall deaths in the US decreasing and peak dates for many states (including MD ans VA) moved up by nearly a month.  

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Fairly dramatic shift on the model being used by the government, incorporating more recent data, with overall deaths in the US decreasing and peak dates for many states (including MD ans VA) moved up by nearly a month.  

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Wow that is quite a bit different. Lets hope this is how it plays out in reality.