Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Couple more days of this and we can confidently say we’re on the downswing. 7 calendar days of this and ICU decrease. There was +202 in hospitalizations reported today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 There is too much lumping of people into "sides" here IMO. Not everyone questioning the current plan or accepted assumptions about Covid is automatically saying "we should just open up with no measures and let whatever happen". And not everyone arguing against someone making a case for a quick opening is saying "we should stay closed for 3 years if we have too no matter what". There is a LOT of space in between those 2 extremes. Personally I have NEVER said we should stay in lockdown for any set period of time. My main points of contention have been when I saw arguments I didn't feel had logical consistency. But here is what I do think...whatever plan we have should be developed based on sound scientific evidence and logic. We should come up with metrics to determine when it is safe and and how to open. And then those metrics (not peoples feelings) should determine the timeline. Because those metrics will determine when it is safe...not someones feelings of cabin fever. The virus doesn't care how frustrated you are. If we open before it is time we risk doing more harm than good. But what those metrics should be is a valid debate. And once we meet the metrics, whatever they are, we should open. In some places maybe that is very soon. In some places maybe that is still a long ways away. I don't know...but I see way too many arguments that seem to be based upon wanting to formulate policy based on their feelings and what they want...not actual evidence that its a good idea medically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Anything new in hell world? I thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 It’s interesting that PG county has a lot more cases than montco but montco has more deaths. I wonder if that’s cause the drive thru testing at fedex was the first of those and the case counts are actually similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I will accept that it was a mistake and not intentional. We all make mistakes. The number of infections likely is growing. Also keep in mind that because deaths lag infection by about 3 weeks typically there are some people who were infected at the time of the study as still alive...that will unfortunately pass away after the date of the study. So the mortality rate will end up higher than if you simply take the deaths and divide by the infections at the time of the study. That is one reason why there is a range not an exact number for the estimated mortality rate. One other thing...wrt to your comp to the flu. If you are going to compare the two you need to use the same metric. If you are going to use the lowest possible mortality estimate for covid then you need to compare it to the low end of the flue mortality estimates. When you made your flu/covid comparison you used the low end of the covid range with the high end of the flu. That is a skewed comparison. Fair enough. WRT my flu comparison, I think I have seen enough to be convinced that this is more lethal than the flu. Especially in elderly populations. The number of deaths will be greater than in a bad flu year like 2018. However.. and this has been the point that I have been trying to drive home for weeks now is this: A sharper curve would mean a faster path to eradication which could likely mean that there would be less overall deaths. In other words.. we are not going to cure this by hiding.. nature has a way of balancing these things out. I trust that way more than I trust anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, wxtrix said: this simply isn't true. and *fewer Yeah wow, that is the exact opposite of what every public health expert in the world thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Fair enough. WRT my flu comparison, I think I have seen enough to be convinced that this is more lethal than the flu. Especially in elderly populations. The number of deaths will be greater than in a bad flu year like 2018. However.. and this has been the point that I have been trying to drive home for weeks now is this: A sharper curve would mean a faster path to eradication which could likely mean that there would be less overall deaths. In other words.. we are not going to cure this by hiding.. nature has a way of balancing these things out. I trust that way more than I trust anything else. You do realize if it will take about 80%+ infections to reach herd immunity and the mortality is between .5-1% that’s 2+ million deaths in the United States using that route? The one piece of hard non data evidence against “let nature take its course” is what happened in most places that tried that. Look at what happened in places that got hit before mitigation measures were implemented. They ended up in lockdown anyways not because they wanted to prevent anything but because it got so bad fast they had no choice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, wxtrix said: this simply isn't true. and *fewer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, wxtrix said: this simply isn't true. and *fewer Ha! For some reason, the incorrect use of "fewer" vs. "more" has always somewhat bothered me, and I'm guilty of it myself at times. Even in supermarket checkout lines, "12 items or less", should really be "fewer"...though I get they're probably just trying to be short about it. I've always heard you should use "fewer" for a discrete, integer number ("there are fewer people..."), and "less" for a non-integer or non-discrete value, or an abstract idea ("I payed less money for gas this past week", or "There is less confusion..."). Sorry to be off-topic and a bit pedantic here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ha! For some reason, the incorrect use of "fewer" vs. "more" has always somewhat bothered me, and I'm guilty of it myself at times. Even in supermarket checkout lines, "12 items or less", should really be "fewer"...though I get they're probably just trying to be short about it. I've always heard you should use "fewer" for a discrete, integer number ("there are fewer people..."), and "less" for a non-integer or non-discrete value, or an abstract idea ("I payed less money for gas this past week", or "There is less confusion..."). Sorry to be off-topic and a bit pedantic here! hahaha, as i said. never change, friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the best part is, during the horrendous last season when this scene happened, i immediately thought of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, wxtrix said: co-signed I'm glad what I said was tangentially relevant! (Ducks for cover after a bad math pun...!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Today looks so far to be pretty good. I'm cautiously optimistic that the deaths situation is improving quite a bit. I say cautiously because I've been tricked by 2-3 day trends before. I feel like we're so close, and I really hope the states opening early don't screw it up for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 7 calendar days of this and ICU decrease. There was +202 in hospitalizations reported today. Is MD still on a decline per the governors criteria to reopen? I thought it had to wait until total hospitalizations declined for 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Is MD still on a decline per the governors criteria to reopen? I thought it had to wait until total hospitalizations declined for 14 days. Ask me Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ask me Wednesday. Good call. Tuesday numbers are often the highest as they catch up on Saturday and Sunday turnarounds. If Tuesday is low, I'd be willing to bet we're not going to be terribly far from phase 1 reopening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 hey, @Eskimo Joe that 202 number was yesterdays. Only +50 new hospitalizations today. the dashboard may not have updated completely when you looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just now, mappy said: hey, @Eskimo Joe that 202 number was yesterdays. Only +50 new hospitalizations today. the dashboard may not have updated completely when you looked. It looks like they changed to currently hospitalized also which is a more relevant count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: It looks like they changed to currently hospitalized also which is a more relevant count. It use to say "ever hospitalized" but the numbers added were still new additions. Now it just falls under "current" instead of "ever" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just passed the 1,000,000 mark for cases in the US...mercy. What is that, a third of the world's cases? Mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Just passed the 1,000,000 mark for cases in the US...mercy. What is that, a third of the world's cases? Mercy. The crazy part is in reality we probably have something like 10 million cases total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The crazy part is in reality we probably have something like 10 million cases total. Since we've now got pretty good validation on an IFR of around 0.75%, and we have 56,376 deaths, it's likely we have 7.5M cases. That number may not be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Since we've now got pretty good validation on an IFR of around 0.75%, and we have 56,376 deaths, it's likely we have 7.5M cases. That number may not be that far off. Yeah it’s just a guess I see a lot of experts putting out there 10:1 undetected to detected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Looks like Georgia's reopening isn't doing much in terms of changing public behavior yet. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/coronavirus-live.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show®ion=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_national#link-38d1ce6b "Georgia’s governor allowed restaurants to open for dine-in service Monday so long as they followed a long set of safety guidelines, but many Atlanta restaurants declined to. One that did reopen was Rocky Mountain Pizza Company, located just across the state from the Georgia Institute of Technology campus. It flung open its doors Monday morning, but as of 12:30 p.m., no one had come to sit down for lunch." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Unemployment has been a friggen fiasco especially since launching this new website. Heads need to roll over at Dept of Labor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Since we've now got pretty good validation on an IFR of around 0.75%, and we have 56,376 deaths, it's likely we have 7.5M cases. That number may not be that far off. Don't forget the lag time. Meaning 7.5M is a good guesstimate for about 2 or 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: 1st day open .......Too be expected and a good thing honestly. Tomorrow might be 2 customers ...Wed 5 ...and so on and so on.... a very slow ramp up . People will slowly start dining in but cautiously. I'm glad we are seeing a couple states trying to phase in openings so the rest can observe . As you quoted ...with a long set of safety guidelines which is important Makes sense. I’m personally going to wait 2-3 weeks to transition to whatever new normal happens after they reopen here. That other people are doing the same makes sense to me. Its interesting most places didn’t even open though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 If MD don’t fix this unemployment crap or start reopening, there’s about to be riots lol. Unemployment is a fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 1st day open .......Too be expected and a good thing honestly. Tomorrow might be 2 customers ...Wed 5 ...and so on and so on.... a very slow ramp up . People will slowly start dining in but cautiously. I'm glad we are seeing a couple states trying to phase in openings so the rest can observe and learn from them . Someone has to start imo.As you quoted ...with a long set of safety guidelines which is important Agree, someone has to be first and as long as they are doing it in a measured approach it will be a good test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I've heard from several friends and family of this crap from multiple states . Yes I’m sure there are issues elsewhere, but this new website launch has been disastrous. For me, and I’ve seen several people say the same, the weekly webcert claims were easy and efficient on the old website. They should have left it alone, and created a new portal for the new claims expecting to file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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