COVID-19 Talk

[PhineasC]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

But is it typical/normal for one specific Corona Virus to be able to infect over multiple species that we are seeing here? 

This is exactly what SARS did. MERS too, I'm pretty sure. Not sure if that means it's common, but it happens. Zoonotic transmission is a real problem and there is a major link to Chinese wet markets and the consumption of exotic meat in general (see AIDS). A lot of nasty diseases have come from the practice of eating undercooked meat from exotic animals, and China has been an epicenter. But the West is too scared to confront the Chinese over it so this will definitely happen again. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, PhineasC said:

This is exactly what SARS did. MERS too, I'm pretty sure. Not sure if that means it's common, but it happens. Zoonotic transmission is a real problem and there is a major link to Chinese wet markets and the consumption of exotic meat in general (see AIDS). A lot of nasty diseases have come from the practice of eating undercooked meat from exotic animals, and China has been an epicenter. But the West is too scared to confront the Chinese over it so this will definitely happen again. 

Hopefully we don't see the CCP sit on the next one a month+ as they did this one. If we had had that extra month plus we could have stopped this crap in its tracks. Saw one report that if the CCP would have been forth coming with the information that we could have reduced the impacts by 95%.

 

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Hopefully we don't see the CCP sit on the next one a month+ as they did this one. If we had had that extra month plus we could have stopped this crap in its tracks. Saw one report that if the CCP would have been forth coming with the information that we could have reduced the impacts by 95%.

 

I guess because of media whitewashing and the desire for cheap shit people don't realize or refuse to acknowledge that China is a brutal dictatorship that literally has Nazi-style prison camps and actively silences dissenting voices. China will not do better next time. That's pretty much against their entire ethos.

[Baltimorewx]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This is exactly what SARS did. MERS too, I'm pretty sure. Not sure if that means it's common, but it happens. Zoonotic transmission is a real problem and there is a major link to Chinese wet markets and the consumption of exotic meat in general (see AIDS). A lot of nasty diseases have come from the practice of eating undercooked meat from exotic animals, and China has been an epicenter. But the West is too scared to confront the Chinese over it so this will definitely happen again. 

Tread carefully or you’ll be called ignorant and maybe even an xenophobe!

[Inverted_Trough]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Hopefully we don't see the CCP sit on the next one a month+ as they did this one. If we had had that extra month plus we could have stopped this crap in its tracks. Saw one report that if the CCP would have been forth coming with the information that we could have reduced the impacts by 95%.

 

So why did South Korea contain this so much better than we did?  This is the question that the "if only China would have told us sooner" crowd doesn't want to answer.  

Let's face it:  Americans only took this seriously when the stock market became infected (pun intended).  We had plenty of time to contain this.

[George BM]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Last member of the family is out of the hospital. Thank God.

Great news! May you and your relatives get through this time.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Have the stat heads here been looking at some of the research coming out now that says the infected count is far higher than we have estimated and therefore the infected fatality ratio (IFR) is much lower? Don't listen to the case fatality ratio numbers on TV, they are all bogus. Self-selection bias is rampant because only the sickest people go to the hospital and get tested. The hospitalization rate numbers are also bogus because of this: of the sickest patients showing up in the ER, only about ~10% are admitted. That doesn't mean 10% of everyone who gets the virus will need a hospital bed... it appears 50% or more may have no symptoms at all.

In a few years when COVID-19 is a seasonal disease like the flu or cold we will wonder why we crashed the world economy over it.

In a few years when it’s a constant neussance we will have some natural immunity and likely a vaccine. It won’t be a threat to run rampant all at once and crash the medical system. 

[PhineasC]

53 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

So why did South Korea contain this so much better than we did?  This is the question that the "if only China would have told us sooner" crowd doesn't want to answer.  

Let's face it:  Americans only took this seriously when the stock market became infected (pun intended).  We had plenty of time to contain this.

South Korea is radically different from the US. First, they are homogeneous. They all share the same culture. There are far less ethnic, social, and economic gaps in their society. Second, they are collectivist, and submission to the greater good is baked-in to the culture; way less of an independent streak than here. Third, they routinely wore face masks and practiced social distancing as a matter of course before this virus erupted; they remember SARS very well. Fourth, much, much smaller geographical footprint and the majority of the population concentrated in a few urban zones that can be closed off. Fifth, younger average population.

So the comparison is not good. We are more like a giant, more diverse Italy here.

[PhineasC]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In a few years when it’s a constant neussance we will have some natural immunity and likely a vaccine. It won’t be a threat to run rampant all at once and crash the medical system. 

I have seen some reports that this has really been similar to a very bad flu season in Lombardy and they routinely are "pushed to the brink" there because they have a marginal supply of ICU beds in that area and tons of elderly. I think we will see later that basically COVID-19 accelerated the death timeline for some old and very sick people who would have died within 12 months anyway. I know this sounds harsh, but I hope political leaders and scientists are looking at the data and not maudlin appeals.

If the IFR for COVID-19 ends up around 0.3% was that worth crashing the world economy and sending us into a deep recession?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I have seen some reports that this has really been similar to a very bad flu season in Lombardy and they routinely are "pushed to the brink" there because they have a marginal supply of ICU beds in that area and tons of elderly. I think we will see later that basically COVID-19 accelerated the death timeline for some old and very sick people who would have died within 12 months anyway. I know this sounds harsh, but I hope political leaders and scientists are looking at the data and not maudlin appeals.

If the IFR for COVID-19 ends up around 0.3% was that worth crashing the world economy and sending us into a deep recession?

Yes because there is no $ on life AND money is all abstract anyways.  We literally make it up. It’s the value of our goods, services and means of production that matters. Temporarily there will be an imbalance to that but necessary services will survive and if the government wanted too they can easily freeze then reboot all non essential economic sectors with an infusion of capital to kick start it. Typically such an infusion would create inflation but not when it’s balanced by downward price pressures such as now. Economic policy is really about how we allot and prioritize resources.  Money can be manipulated. This won’t create a permanent imbalance in the means of production. We will still have an adequate labor force and raw materials. With an infusion of cap to crate necessary demand the economy would recover quickly. We could also freeze all debt both to and from financial institutions so most come out the same way they entered the crisis. Now I know our government sucks at economic policy and that likely won’t do all that. The biggest issue is we are selfish AF and that strategy would require the greater good mentality. A lot of people will still be making a profit. Financial institutions don’t want to give up several months of interest payments. And many wouldn’t want everyone to realize just have abstract the value of money is and open their eyes to the truth of how we deploy our resources. So we will probably drive ourselves into a depression in a futile attempt to save the status quo economic system but that doesn’t make the first part of the plan wrong. It just makes us idiots when it comes to economic policy.  

[MDstorm]

I am stopping by as I get a quick break from fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.  I work in the Baltimore area and I can tell you that the hospitals with which I am affiliated are doing fairly well.  In fact , hospital census is on the lower end as many people are avoiding the ER/hospitals with issues that they previously may have gone in for.  Also, many surgeries have been postponed ( I even had one patient whose cardiac bypass surgery was postponed due to the COVID-19 situation).  The ICU's are not overrun as of yet.  Hydroxychloroquine is being used somewhat liberally in higher risk patients.  Anecdotally, I have seen  good results with this medication.  In fact, the last 10 patients with COVID-19 that I have dealt with are recovering well (some hospitalized/some treated at home).  I will also say that for every 1 patient that I have sent for testing that tests positive for COVID-19, there are about 7 patients that test negative (there are other "bugs" going around).  Of course, this is an evolving situation and the next 1-2 weeks could certainly see things worsen.  Wearing full PPE for work is something that I never thought I would experience...….just surreal.

Everyone stay safe. 

[Jebman]

On 4/2/2020 at 10:38 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

So anyone wearing a mask when going out to get groceries now?

I am heading out shortly. I have a legit respirator for spraying bad shiit. Maybe I will wear it. Should get some interesting looks.

I do wear a mask when going out for groceries and I carry a big bottle of pharmacy grade hand sanitizer. I keep 6-10 feet from everyone. I aint takin NO chances. NO effin' way I am ever gonna get COVID 19!

[showmethesnow]

8 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

So why did South Korea contain this so much better than we did?  This is the question that the "if only China would have told us sooner" crowd doesn't want to answer.  

Let's face it:  Americans only took this seriously when the stock market became infected (pun intended).  We had plenty of time to contain this.

Just stop. There are so many variables involved here to try to figure out why things went better in some countries and worse in others will probably only be determined after the fact with much study (I pointed out a few days ago some reasons why I thought Italy may have been hit harder). It may be nothing more then having to do with genetics. I know you are so desperately trying to disparage our current administration but to deny that most if not all of this could have been avoided for the US and even for a good chunk of the world if we would have that extra month plus warning is just folly.

And about those test kits that everyone is going on about? While they are useful at any given time during a pandemic, they are far more useful and key at the very beginning when you have small individual cases where you can far more easily contain an outbreak. I think we are going to find that by the time we were aware of the problem that it was far too late as we were already into community spread where containment measures were no longer feasible. 

And need I remind you of the study that suggested only a 3% infection rate (I don't believe it myself). But if that is truly the case we are looking at a major win for this administration especially after the 24/7 dooms day scenarios of millions dead thrown out by the media on a daily basis. And before you go, 'But, but, but the second wave'. All I can say is let's deal with the first problem first. I think we are going to find that we will mostly be alright for any follow up.

eta: Seeing as you keep bringing up S Korea as evidence that the US failed I think I will take a hard look into them. Have a feeling you might not like my conclusions with some of things I already do know.

eta: I see PhineasC answered you. Notice all the variables? Still will probably take a look at it anyway.

[showmethesnow]

4 hours ago, MDstorm said:

I am stopping by as I get a quick break from fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.  I work in the Baltimore area and I can tell you that the hospitals with which I am affiliated are doing fairly well.  In fact , hospital census is on the lower end as many people are avoiding the ER/hospitals with issues that they previously may have gone in for.  Also, many surgeries have been postponed ( I even had one patient whose cardiac bypass surgery was postponed due to the COVID-19 situation).  The ICU's are not overrun as of yet.  Hydroxychloroquine is being used somewhat liberally in higher risk patients.  Anecdotally, I have seen  good results with this medication.  In fact, the last 10 patients with COVID-19 that I have dealt with are recovering well (some hospitalized/some treated at home).  I will also say that for every 1 patient that I have sent for testing that tests positive for COVID-19, there are about 7 patients that test negative (there are other "bugs" going around).  Of course, this is an evolving situation and the next 1-2 weeks could certainly see things worsen.  Wearing full PPE for work is something that I never thought I would experience...….just surreal.

Everyone stay safe. 

Thanks for the update. You said they are getting good results with the chloroquine? Are they using that as a cocktail or a stand alone? And if it is a cocktail what other drugs are they employing? Just curious as other studies have used different drugs.

[showmethesnow]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes because there is no $ on life AND money is all abstract anyways.  We literally make it up. It’s the value of our goods, services and means of production that matters. Temporarily there will be an imbalance to that but necessary services will survive and if the government wanted too they can easily freeze then reboot all non essential economic sectors with an infusion of capital to kick start it. Typically such an infusion would create inflation but not when it’s balanced by downward price pressures such as now. Economic policy is really about how we allot and prioritize resources.  Money can be manipulated. This won’t create a permanent imbalance in the means of production. We will still have an adequate labor force and raw materials. With an infusion of cap to crate necessary demand the economy would recover quickly. We could also freeze all debt both to and from financial institutions so most come out the same way they entered the crisis. Now I know our government sucks at economic policy and that likely won’t do all that. The biggest issue is we are selfish AF and that strategy would require the greater good mentality. A lot of people will still be making a profit. Financial institutions don’t want to give up several months of interest payments. And many wouldn’t want everyone to realize just have abstract the value of money is and open their eyes to the truth of how we deploy our resources. So we will probably drive ourselves into a depression in a futile attempt to save the status quo economic system but that doesn’t make the first part of the plan wrong. It just makes us idiots when it comes to economic policy.  

Can't even begin to debate you when it comes to economics but I will throw one thing out there. Granted I agree with your thoughts as far as the US having a strong economy heading into this thing where one would typically expect a strong bounce back. But now all the worlds economies are so intertwined we also need to be aware of what is occurring elsewhere. From what I see the EU will struggle after the fact which will put a damper on things on the worlds economy. But the real elephant in the room is China who has massive fingers intertwined into everything. I have a feeling they took a massive hit with this virus, far worse then they are letting on. Now the CCP may very well be able to force the issue on getting the economy up and running again quickly despite things. But what if they can't or even worse we see an uprising after the extremely draconian measures they have/are evidently employing (not that I am particularly expecting that)? Now excepting an uprising a sluggish Chinese economy would really hamper the recovery of the world's economies. So we are pretty much talking at that point can a strong economic recovery by the US pull up the world's economies or would China and the EU drag them down?

[H2O]

lol @ the comments about economy vs lives.  Yes, we should sacrifice granny to keep the Dow strong.  

[mappy]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

lol @ the comments about economy vs lives.  Yes, we should sacrifice granny to keep the Dow strong.  

but but in 10 years when we look back we will wonder why we crashed the economy? only 100,000 people died! 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

lol @ the comments about economy vs lives.  Yes, we should sacrifice granny to keep the Dow strong.  

Granny lived a long life. Time for her to make the sacrifice for my 401k.

[H2O]

33 minutes ago, mappy said:

but but in 10 years when we look back we will wonder why we crashed the economy? only 100,000 people died! 

I hate that stock buybacks and dividends were halted because the low wage Chipotle worker, who couldn’t take off work due to shitty sick leave policies, coughed on Seymours burrito bowl and made him die. He also infected 400 others during his shift

[showmethesnow]

I was curious as to whether prior exposure to SARS or maybe even MERS or some other virus may have provided some immunity for the countries that experienced these outbreaks. Looking over it it looks as if that it is still up for debate. Know every little on virology so I was wonder if any that were more knowledgeable would have a take on this. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Granny lived a long life. Time for her to make the sacrifice for my 401k.

She would totally want your Vantage Fund 500 to earn 10% quarterly. She only asks for pansies on her grave site when you visit once a year. You are too busy hanging in the Caymans to swing by Nanas dirt nap location more often

[showmethesnow]

Really even hesitant about jumping into the lives vs. the economy debate but I do want to throw a couple things out there. One has to consider at some point whether the cure eventually becomes worse then the disease. Here are some things to consider with our current shut down. It is not just about the stock market though quite a few people have taken a massive hit with their retirement funds. One has to consider that many/most people live paycheck to paycheck. They can not afford to go months and months without having money coming in (just forget the stimulus money, it will only tide people over for a short period of time and the money needed to sustain these people with higher stimulus money just does not exists). Any prolonged absence of income will put them in a position where they are spending months, if not years, trying to catch up. So the money they would typically spend on consumer goods that stimulates the economy is now being diverted to catching up on bills. Considering how many are living week to week this will very quickly put the brakes on any economic recover and actually throw us into a deep depression. A depression that will only exacerbate the financial hardships that many will experience.

Now I just mentioned the basics on the financial aspects here. There is much more to consider. The overall stress on many throughout the shutdown financially, emotionally, physically and psychologically are high now and they will only increase the longer we are shutdown. Stresses that are already at extremely high levels. Now many of you scoffed at Trumps comment about suicides. But scoff as you may, this will be an issue we will have to deal with as people come out of this finding their lives drastically altered if not almost destroyed completely. This doesn't even factor in that we will probably see a sky rocketing of addiction as people try to cope with the new reality. And the longer we have to deal with this shut down the worse it will be. Now there are other factors to consider as well but I am not going to delve in them at this time.

So what it really comes down to is a balancing act as to when we decide to start loosening the lock down where we can get us out of this with the least amount of damage. I mentioned last week that I was thinking 4-6 weeks and a max of 8. I still am running with that idea (would now be 3-5 weeks, max of 7).

 

[Wonderdog]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really even hesitant about jumping into the lives vs. the economy debate but I do want to throw a couple things out there. One has to consider at some point whether the cure eventually becomes worse then the disease. Here are some things to consider with our current shut down. It is not just about the stock market though quite a few people have taken a massive hit with their retirement funds. One has to consider that many/most people live paycheck to paycheck. They can not afford to go months and months without having money coming in (just forget the stimulus money, it will only tide people over for a short period of time and the money needed to sustain these people with higher stimulus money just does not exists). Any prolonged absence of income will put them in a position where they are spending months, if not years, trying to catch up. So the money they would typically spend on consumer goods that stimulates the economy is now being diverted to catching up on bills. Considering how many are living week to week this will very quickly put the brakes on any economic recover and actually throw us into a deep depression. A depression that will only exacerbate the financial hardships that many will experience.

Now I just mentioned the basics on the financial aspects here. There is much more to consider. The overall stress on many throughout the shutdown financially, emotionally, physically and psychologically are high now and they will only increase the longer we are shutdown. Stresses that are already at extremely high levels. Now many of you scoffed at Trumps comment about suicides. But scoff as you may, this will be an issue we will have to deal with as people come out of this finding their lives drastically altered if not almost destroyed completely. This doesn't even factor in that we will probably see a sky rocketing of addiction as people try to cope with the new reality. And the longer we have to deal with this shut down the worse it will be. Now there are other factors to consider as well but I am not going to delve in them at this time.

So what it really comes down to is a balancing act as to when we decide to start loosening the lock down where we can get us out of this with the least amount of damage. I mentioned last week that I was thinking 4-6 weeks and a max of 8. I still am running with that idea (would now be 3-5 weeks, max of 7).

 

I think it all depends on the success or failure of the hydroxy or other meds patients are receiving now.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I think it all depends on the success or failure of the hydroxy or other meds patients are receiving now.

That will play a part somewhat. But the fact it is not a cure and just a possible method of mitigating the deaths attributed to the virus really lowers it's impact. After all what we really need at this time is a lowering of the infection rate and that doesn't achieve that. 

[Wonderdog]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That will play a part somewhat. But the fact it is not a cure and just a possible method of mitigating the deaths attributed to the virus really lowers it's impact. After all what we really need at this time is a lowering of the infection rate and that doesn't achieve that. 

I was referring to a major reason which will be used to get people working again.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That will play a part somewhat. But the fact it is not a cure and just a possible method of mitigating the deaths attributed to the virus really lowers it's impact. After all what we really need at this time is a lowering of the infection rate and that doesn't achieve that. 

Given where we are on the curve in many locations of the country this week, and considering that a significant number of folks who are infected may exhibit no symptoms, wearing masks makes a lot of sense now.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I was referring to a major reason which will be used to get people working again.

Mitigating the spread is what will get it done.

[jaydreb]

As long as the virus is out there, the economy is going to suffer.  We could open everyone’s doors next month and tell them that they are free to reopen everything but do you think people are going to the movies, traveling on planes, eating at crowded restaurants, etc.?  There is no economic recovery until we have a vaccine or an effective therapeutic.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I was referring to a major reason which will be used to get people working again.

Yes, if in fact it does help to lower the death rate it will help to alleviate the worries many will have as they begin starting their lives back up.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

As long as the virus is out there, the economy is going to suffer.  We could open everyone’s doors next month and tell them that they are free to reopen everything but do you think people are going to the movies, traveling on planes, eating at crowded restaurants, etc.?  There is no economic recovery until we have a vaccine or an effective therapeutic.

Yeah its not like there is going to be an instant fix.