COVID-19 Talk

[jaydreb]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well that’s the key, isn’t it?

Everyone knows I’m not in favor of swinging the doors open fully anywhere (I doubt many are), but given the positive trends in some areas, I think it’s appropriate to discuss and at an appropriate time implement a smart and gradual reopening. 

If things open and cases/hospitalizations remain level or drop, yes, I agree many people will become more comfortable. We want less cases and more confidence that the worst is over because of the unprecedented action we took. But if this reopening process fails and we’re losing more Americans in June than we did during the awful month of April, it’d be devastating to both the public health and economy. 

To the fear piece, I’m not sure what you’re specifically referring to, but I don’t think there’s any objective argument that this isn’t serious. Policy makers and the public have to be cautious and careful. As Dr. Fauci said, you want to be criticized for doing too much in this situation. If we screw this up, people who don’t have to die, will. 

Good post.  Maybe I’m overly pessimistic, but I fail to see how we can possibly lose less people in June - when things will be open and people out and about  - than we did in April when things were generally closed and people were home.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Here is the toplines for the new WaPo consumer poll:

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Heading for another 2k+ day. The curse of weekend numbers strikes again.

If you look at the long term curve it’s easy to figure out where we really are ignoring the predictable weekly fluctuations due to reporting procedures. 

[ErinInTheSky]

NY is finally approaching adequate testing for making contact tracing possible.

 

Generally you need positive percentage in the 3-5% range, and a large contact tracing army. The contact tracing army funding may come this week in congress.

 

 

[Inverted_Trough]

57 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Here is the toplines for the new WaPo consumer poll:

 

And I'm willing to bet that, even among those who believe certain businesses should be allowed to be open, a majority of them aren't going to patronize those businesses anytime soon either.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

And I'm willing to bet that, even among those who believe certain businesses should be allowed to be open, a majority of them aren't going to patronize those businesses anytime soon either.

They track pretty close together but you appear to be right. Look for instance at restaurants. 26% say they should be open, but 22% say they feel comfortable. 

[jaydreb]

36 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

They track pretty close together but you appear to be right. Look for instance at restaurants. 26% say they should be open, but 22% say they feel comfortable. 

It’s going to take some time before people are comfortable doing those things again. Hopefully, if we take that poll in a month the numbers will be higher.  

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well that’s the key, isn’t it?

Everyone knows I’m not in favor of swinging the doors open fully anywhere (I doubt many are), but given the positive trends in some areas, I think it’s appropriate to discuss and at an appropriate time implement a smart and gradual reopening. 

If things open and cases/hospitalizations remain level or drop, yes, I agree many people will become more comfortable. We want less cases and more confidence that the worst is over because of the unprecedented action we took. But if this reopening process fails and we’re losing more Americans in June than we did during the awful month of April, it’d be devastating to both the public health and economy. 

To the fear piece, I’m not sure what you’re specifically referring to, but I don’t think there’s any objective argument that this isn’t serious. Policy makers and the public have to be cautious and careful. As Dr. Fauci said, you want to be criticized for doing too much in this situation. If we screw this up, people who don’t have to die, will. 

I'm almost to the point of just saying just open everything up.  If we're all willing to bet human life to settle the issue, then let's just do it?  I'm mostly being facetious, but at this point, nobody can agree on what the best path going forward is.  I'm on the side of just waiting a bit and stagger things.  

Also, I'm trying to figure out when all this became partisan? How does pro or anti lockdown means favoring one party over another.   I dunno. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm almost to the point of just saying just open everything up.  If we're all willing to bet human life to settle the issue, then let's just do it?  I'm mostly being facetious, but at this point, nobody can agree on what the best path going forward is.  I'm on the side of just waiting a bit and stagger things.  

Also, I'm trying to figure out when all this became partisan? How does pro or anti lockdown means favoring one party over another.   I dunno. 

No idea how it all became political/partisan, really...oh well!  But there is some good information in here to be sure, in spite of some of the sniping.

Good to see you Randy...I hope you are doing well these days, despite all this going on!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

No idea how it all became political/partisan, really...oh well!  But there is some good information in here to be sure, in spite of some of the sniping.

Good to see you Randy...I hope you are doing well these days, despite all this going on!

Thanks man.  I'm getting by.  I'm essential, so my routine hasn't changed that much...been going in to the office..just odd seeing DC so quiet.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thanks man.  I'm getting by.  I'm essential, so my routine hasn't changed that much...been going in to the office..just odd seeing DC so quiet.

Good to hear!  I'm doing fine, on mandatory telework which has worked out OK.  I can imagine it's very odd seeing DC so quiet right downtown.  Where I'm at, it's rather quiet as well.  Kinda nice, actually.  At least I've had a chance to get out with the camera and take many photos through all this...a sort of passion of mine.  I still kind of owe you (and I'd like to do it anyhow) a photo either morning or evening when the sun is lower, of the marble bust of MLK at that memorial.  I've walked by that in the past when the light was hitting it just right.  I'm not actually sure if memorials and parks are open at this point...and I don't much care right now to Metro downtown.  But, depending on how things go this summer, it's a goal of mine!  I don't think the statue is going anywhere!

[stormtracker]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Good to hear!  I'm doing fine, on mandatory telework which has worked out OK.  I can imagine it's very odd seeing DC so quiet right downtown.  Where I'm at, it's rather quiet as well.  Kinda nice, actually.  At least I've had a chance to get out with the camera and take many photos through all this...a sort of passion of mine.  I still kind of owe you (and I'd like to do it anyhow) a photo either morning or evening when the sun is lower, of the marble bust of MLK at that memorial.  I've walked by that in the past when the light was hitting it just right.  I'm not actually sure if memorials and parks are open at this point...and I don't much care right now to Metro downtown.  But, depending on how things go this summer, it's a goal of mine!  I don't think the statue is going anywhere!

They are open, but obviously the crowds are about 15% of normal (except for Saturday during that flyover).   My metro is closed, so I've been taking a beating with Uber.  I want this to be over, but I'm just not sure we are ready yet.  I'd hate to rush things and then we do all of this sh*t all over again.   Let's just be one and done.   Like the snow events in our entire winter.  

[ErinInTheSky]

So... Ohio is basically encouraging employers to report COVID workers who don't come to work in the pandemic. It better not work that way here in Maryland.

 

This is what some of us are talking about when we say that the ideas thrown around of "opening up but keeping those who are at risk safe" has been kind of BS.

 

 

[Baltimorewx]

Lol China reporting +1 new cases today. That country is a joke and should be blown up 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Lol China reporting +1 new cases today. That country is a joke and should be blown up 

It shouldn't be too shocking that China managed to squash the disease. Total border shutdown and they had the benefit of dealing with it when it was concentrated to a single city, they had a massive quarantine effort and almost universal adoption of safety protocol, flew drones harassing people to wear masks. All the other countries had to deal with multiple, maybe hundreds, of points of infection. China literally only had to control the spread from a single direction, Wuhan.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

It shouldn't be too shocking that China managed to squash the disease. Total border shutdown and they had the benefit of dealing with it when it was concentrated to a single city, they had a massive quarantine effort and almost universal adoption of safety protocol, flew drones harassing people to wear masks. All the other countries had to deal with multiple, maybe hundreds, of points of infection. China literally only had to control the spread from a single direction, Wuhan.

Likewise they are also about 3 months ahead of the curve right now.

[jaydreb]

14 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So... Ohio is basically encouraging employers to report COVID workers who don't come to work in the pandemic. It better not work that way here in Maryland.

 

This is what some of us are talking about when we say that the ideas thrown around of "opening up but keeping those who are at risk safe" has been kind of BS.

 

 

The website isn’t meant to punish people who don’t come to work during the pandemic.  It’s to make sure the companies don’t have to pay unemployment to people who have the opportunity to work.  

And I may be speaking beyond my knowledge here, but I believe Maryland has the same policy.  No unemployment if you have the opportunity to work.  

[Baltimorewx]

6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

It shouldn't be too shocking that China managed to squash the disease. Total border shutdown and they had the benefit of dealing with it when it was concentrated to a single city, they had a massive quarantine effort and almost universal adoption of safety protocol, flew drones harassing people to wear masks. All the other countries had to deal with multiple, maybe hundreds, of points of infection. China literally only had to control the spread from a single direction, Wuhan.

Give me a break...a decline in cases and deaths, absolutely. +1 cases in the most populous country in the world. No. They are fudging numbers like nothing else 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I'm almost to the point of just saying just open everything up.  If we're all willing to bet human life to settle the issue, then let's just do it?  I'm mostly being facetious, but at this point, nobody can agree on what the best path going forward is.  I'm on the side of just waiting a bit and stagger things.  

Also, I'm trying to figure out when all this became partisan? How does pro or anti lockdown means favoring one party over another.   I dunno. 

Yeah it's really sad...After seeing a political polarization even in THIS, I'm concerned that this may be evidence that such polarization has poisoned every square inch of our American existence, smh I mean I'm only 29, but...I don't remember another time where every little thing is polarized (even the dang weather last year, lol). But so it goes...It pretty much started off like this--with the whole "serious concern vs media hysteria=not that bad" debate. That was also somehow, some way, along party lines, smh

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I'm almost to the point of just saying just open everything up.  If we're all willing to bet human life to settle the issue, then let's just do it?  I'm mostly being facetious, but at this point, nobody can agree on what the best path going forward is.  I'm on the side of just waiting a bit and stagger things.  

Also, I'm trying to figure out when all this became partisan? How does pro or anti lockdown means favoring one party over another.   I dunno. 

Maybe we should consider creating a position in our society where someone with authority could provide steady guidance and leadership. Any suggestions what we could call such a position?

If you watched fox or read a right wing blog for 5 minutes you wouldn’t ask that question.  Of course in fairness conservatives could say the same thing about cnn/msnbc/NYT. People are getting two vastly different narratives right now. 

[ErinInTheSky]

32 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The website isn’t meant to punish people who don’t come to work during the pandemic.  It’s to make sure the companies don’t have to pay unemployment to people who have the opportunity to work.  

And I may be speaking beyond my knowledge here, but I believe Maryland has the same policy.  No unemployment if you have the opportunity to work.  

But from an “open but make sure the at risk people can stay distanced” perspective how on earth does this accomplish that?

[nw baltimore wx]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it's really sad...After seeing a political polarization even in THIS, I'm concerned that this may be evidence that such polarization has poisoned every square inch of our American existence, smh I mean I'm only 29, but...I don't remember another time where every little thing is polarized (even the dang weather last year, lol). But so it goes...It pretty much started off like this--with the whole "serious concern vs media hysteria=not that bad" debate. That was also somehow, some way, along party lines, smh

Don’t sweat it too much. Our country was born on differing views that boiled over before, and I don’t think we are anywhere close to that. I concede that it seems magnified recently and that may be because anybody can find a stage and an audience in the social media world we live in, but it’s mostly noise. 

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m deeply concerned long term, but here, I think we buy into the illusion that there are only extremes too easily. An overwhelming majority of Americans are united in understanding that this is serious and requires serious action according to polling. 

Politicians, loud fringes, and (some) media make it seem like we’re falling apart during this national crisis. Unfortunately, bad policy makers, even if not the majority, can do enormous damage. 

Balancing that out is exactly why I’ve dedicated my career (and life) so far to public service.

I started a reply but it wouldn’t go well. I’ll just leave it at that I’d enjoy sitting down with you, having a beer or two, and a good discussion. 

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Lol China reporting +1 new cases today. That country is a joke and should be blown up 

Unless you really mean that an entire country should be blown up, why say so? 

[NorthArlington101]

Too many obscenities?  
I‘d like to talk over a beer or two. I really hope we can all get together again at some point. I’d seriously travel down if it’s timed right. 

Another get-together would be so great. I’m finally at an age where I wouldn’t feel like a total weirdo going. At this stage of my life it’s probably networking, honestly.

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe we should consider creating a position in our society where someone with authority could provide steady guidance and leadership. Any suggestions what we could call such a position?

If you watched fox or read a right wing blog for 5 minutes you wouldn’t ask that question.  Of course in fairness conservatives could say the same thing about cnn/msnbc/NYT. People are getting two vastly different narratives right now. 

Have you ever read Democracy in America (Tocqueville)... it is pretty crazy how accurate the prediction was.. It took a couple hundred years, a reality TV star as president and twitter.. but we finally made it!

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Too many obscenities?  

I‘d like to talk over a beer or two. I really hope we can all get together again at some point. I’d seriously travel down if it’s timed right. 

 Nah. My reply started okay, but I got into current divisiveness and it started heading downhill. Not the place.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Another get-together would be so great. I’m finally at an age where I wouldn’t feel like a total weirdo going. At this stage of my life it’s probably networking, honestly.

Definitely need a get together.

[40westwx]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-newsom-slams-northern-california-counties-as-making-a-big-mistake-for-opening-restaurants-gyms-salons-and-spas/

It is interesting how we see Executive Powers being trumped (no pun intended) by State's right, and now states being trumped by localities.

[Rvarookie]

Just disappointed this thread lacked a true open discussion. It’s like you had 4 to 5 tweakers, a WV trick, a moderator with a bias, and with all of it combined, it prevented a really healthy discussion from some very bright folks.

The worse part is many of these posters likely have kids they talk to about bullying and kindness to others, yet here they are as adults pretending they have this all figured it out and shitting on people in forum just because their views differ.

Do better folks.

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

True, but Fox News and more recently trump laid the groundwork for this by fomenting distrust of government, the media, science, and other institutions for many years.

The above post probably belongs in the politics thread, but I would say that deciding how to respond to a pandemic and when and how to open the economy is not an exact science.  It’s a multi-factor determination that weighs many considerations — including the opinions of scientists, as well as economists, ethicists, engineers, etc.  It’s not like there is an exact correct answer that is knowable.