dallen7908 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub Tool for ensemble fans "The ensemble forecast combines models unconditional on particular interventions being in place with those conditional on certain social distancing measures continuing. To ensure consistency, only models with 4 week-ahead forecasts ahead are included in the ensemble." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said: On the topic of kids, recent studies failed to find a single case of a child passing the virus to an adult. While I'm sure it's happened somewhere at some point, the only research and data we have right now seems to show that kids just never really become contagious. One of the examples cited was a 9 year old British boy. They carried out contact tracing and out of the 170 people he came into contact with, 0 caught the virus. Open everything up as if nothing were wrong? No, but we should be putting together plans on how to get kids to back school this fall. Take the summer to develop a plan that protects teachers from other parents and staff, but it's becoming more and more clear it's not kids who are spreading this thing. You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there. He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear? Do you completely lack reading comprehension? Reread everything I wrote and try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Literally the guy who wrote the study being cited here (Alasdair Munro) like "No, you're reading this study wrong" and other studies, published in the Lancet, have found the opposite. This in part stems from the fact that most studies have taken place after schools were closed, and Children are not going to be primary transfer points of disease in those cases. He's even raging about it on Twitter right now lol. Retweeting from people saying that hid study shows schools should remain closed. Munro just retweeted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Has there or has there not been a case traced back to a child under 10 passing this to an adult? That's the headline I read.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Has there or has there not been a case traced back to a child under 10 passing this to an adult? That's the headline I read.. That headline is exactly what he's raging about. There have been plenty of cases of kids under 10 passing to adults. In the study, they looked at a hundred or so households and none of them had the index case be a kid under 10 years old. He specifically states that the reason for this may be because children are less likely to be symptomatic and thus less likely to be discovered as the index case. You can read more from one of his colleagues here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 51 minutes ago, Yeoman said: He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear? Yes and there are other studies that contradict. When we have contradictory evidence what that means is “we don’t know yet and we need to further examine it” not go with the study that fits what I want to be true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 I deleted a post because it could have been misconstrued as critical of @Hank Scorpio ‘s post. It wasn’t. It would be awesome if kids have a built in immunity of some sort. My deleted post was because of the ridiculous responses by someone else and I don’t want to engage in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 In case you need direct evidence kids can transmit, about 10% of households had a kid as the primary index case by which the virus was transmitted: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v1 (This study is included in the Munro study, who has specifically said the conclusion in the media was being reported erroneously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Munro notes that there is a paucity of studies on children passing to adults though, for a ton of reasons. Most schools closed relatively early before studies began collecting data, and before widespread testing, so you wouldn't expecct many index cases to be children. Parents are much more likely to continue to be working and entering the community right now. Testing is hard to obtain period right now in many countries. You can't run an experimental study for obvious ethical reasons. Studies looking at viral load and infectivity suggest kids are just as infectious as adults. But on top of all of this, there are tons of studies out there reporting different things in terms of childhood infectivity and so we should listen to the public health officials to draw our conclusions on this, instead of focusing on a single study that confirms our biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 It is not really possible to go back to school and distance from others. The hallways are packed, stairs, no way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 +709 cases, +74 deaths, +44 total currently hospitalized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: +709 cases, +74 deaths, +44 total currently hospitalized. So much for that 3 day downward trend of hospitalized patients.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes and there are other studies that contradict. When we have contradictory evidence what that means is “we don’t know yet and we need to further examine it” not go with the study that fits what I want to be true. Right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just now, AdamHLG said: So much for that 3 day downward trend of hospitalized patients.. Yeah... we're on a bit of an uptick. Hopefully it doesn't go higher. But honestly after I saw what I saw on the trails and parks a couple weekends ago, I am not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: It is not really possible to go back to school and distance from others. The hallways are packed, stairs, no way. There’s no point in going back to school, it’s May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: There’s no point in going back to school, it’s May I'm more following daycares. I don't think I'm ready to send my son back, but if they reopen I'll have a hard choice to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 MD will be the last state in the country to being reopening- and when we do, it will likely involve mandatory rectal temperature-taking before entering any store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 New deaths are about to be added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: MD will be the last state in the country to being reopening- and when we do, it will likely involve mandatory rectal temperature-taking before entering any store. Lol funny. Honestly the only 2 things I miss are restaurants/bars and sports. I never aimlessly went into stores to begin with so I could careless about typical retail. But I’m ready to sit at my local tiki bar, and sip on some drinks while watching the Os game. Weather supportive of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Hogan should spend less time puffing his chest about MARYLAND STRONG and more time fixing the broken unemployment system. My brother waited online for 6 hours to refile, then got an automated form in the mail saying he had to call- and the line has been busy for days, you can never get through. Meanwhile he didn't get paid, his career has been destroyed, and he's running out of money... The snarky comments on here about "awww Karen can't get her nails done!" -no, it's a lot worse than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 And then there’s this in the Baltimore sun, encouraging out of Towners to OC but just saying not much is open so a day trip is more appropriate...hmm https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-ocean-city-beaches-reopen-20200505-wdvmqqtbsrcphloxfpwbn365ny-story.html?fbclid=t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 A day or two more of this and we're probably not going to be on track for the 14 day phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 33 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: There’s no point in going back to school, it’s May Most of the planning I’m aware of is for summer school and fall. Annoyingly some of the suggestions aren’t realistic. Lots of details need to be worked out. Directives with no way to realistically implement them isn’t helpful. That’s like a high stakes game of “not my problem, I told them what to do and they didn’t do it”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Hasn’t been confirmed but it sounds like MLB will resume spring training on June 15 and open the season July 1 with teams playing in their own stadiums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Hasn’t been confirmed but it sounds like MLB will resume spring training on June 15 and open the season July 1 with teams playing in their own stadiums. Still a while away but would be acceptable I guess. Question would be with fans? What capacity? Etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Still a while away but would be acceptable I guess. Question would be with fans? What capacity? Etc etc I’m guessing no fans right now. Well, when they start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 I have so many questions on sports... What happens when a team gets cases? Does the game get canceled, and the team get isolated for 2 weeks? Seems like a logistical nightmare for scheduling. What happens to the refs, who seem to be in the at risk age range? What happens with the coaches, many of who are in similar age ranges? And of course... what the hell is going to happen with college football? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts