COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:45 PM, mappy said:

Yes, there will be those who are recently positive that will require hospitalizations. not everyone will of course, which is why hogan isn't using it as a metic.

and correct, as far as i know, you can't just go get a test. i have no idea who they are testing, i assume only those with symptoms. but they may be contact testing too, who knows. 

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They are also testing everyone that needs to be admitted to a hospital for any reason as well.  I know because I have a family member getting surgery today and she had to be tested so they could put her in the non covid part of the hospital. 

[mappy]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:46 PM, DCTeacherman said:

 Maybe, maybe not.  Depends on how much our mitigation is working and how many people we test daily.  

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if it wasn't widespread, we wouldnt be seeing % positive rise  

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:48 PM, DCTeacherman said:

They are also testing everyone that needs to be admitted to a hospital for any reason as well.  I know because I have a family member getting surgery today and she had to be tested so they could put her in the non covid part of the hospital. 

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thats good! and we need more of that. more tests = more negative = drop in % positive. 

[H2O]

The beach i would go to is private as in my own.  i just don't want to drive over until things are ok to drive over to.  

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:45 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

FL governor has ordered their state medical examiner to stop reporting numbers.  We're never going to get a real picture from that state.  The Lt. Governor of Texas said there are more important things than living.  Both states are example of political officials who really don't care.  Data from those two states will be murky at best.

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Murkier than PA where they suddenly removed 200+ from the death rolls, MD where they hid the nursing home numbers until this week, or NYC where they are cataloguing every dead person found at home as COVID-related without a test? Seems to me gaming of the numbers is rampant from all directions.

[Wonderdog]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:48 PM, mappy said:

if it wasn't widespread, we wouldnt be seeing % positive rise  

thats good! and we need more of that. more tests = more negative = drop in % positive. 

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Right! Who cares about positive cases if hospitalizations go down. 

[mappy]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:53 PM, PhineasC said:

Murkier than PA where they suddenly removed 200+ from the death rolls, MD where they hid the nursing home numbers until this week, or NYC where they are cataloguing every dead person found at home as COVID-related without a test? Seems to me gaming of the numbers is rampant from all directions.

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Yeah not sure why MD DOH was doing that. I think Hogan got on them about it though... 

[mappy]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:55 PM, Wonderdog said:

Right! Who cares about positive cases if hospitalizations go down. 

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well, i think it should still be something people acknowledge. but its not a useful metric to reopen. people are going to get this, even after we reopen. its in the community, and has been for some time now, before Mid-March. Hell, many of us may have had it and we didn't even know it. More and more stories of people being ill with covid-like symptoms in December and January. WBAL did a whole thing on it yesterday. One of their own anchors was out sick with awful flu like symptoms but tested negative for Flu A and B. I think he was going to be doing the Quest Diagnostic anti-body test that is available.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:55 PM, Wonderdog said:

Right! Who cares about positive cases if hospitalizations go down. 

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Well, if the outbreak was increasing it would mean that down the road the hospitalizations would go up.  Of course it’s debatable as to whether or not we are testing enough to know which way the outbreak is going.  In the future when we theoretically get this under control and have constant widespread testing the positive case numbers will be very important. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:37 PM, snowfan said:

Tbh...at this point, what's the difference between opening a beach and a park or trail? Shits been packed in recent weeks. Beach will be no different. 

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I agree with this.  It’s hard to imagine that beaches kept at a reasonable capacity would be any worse than the hiking trails, bike trails, etc, which all have been packed lately. 

[BxEngine]

  On 5/1/2020 at 2:53 PM, PhineasC said:

Murkier than PA where they suddenly removed 200+ from the death rolls, MD where they hid the nursing home numbers until this week, or NYC where they are cataloguing every dead person found at home as COVID-related without a test? Seems to me gaming of the numbers is rampant from all directions.

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This is a flat out lie. There is a difference between probable cases we are counting and just natural causes for at home deaths. They arent all being reported as covid. Stop.

[mappy]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:10 PM, BxEngine said:

This is a flat out lie. There is a difference between probable cases we are counting and just natural causes for at home deaths. They arent all being reported as covid. Stop.

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youre better than me, i just ignore that stupidity in his posts. but his MD comment was true, MD DOH was pushing back on releasing nursing home information

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:10 PM, BxEngine said:

This is a flat out lie. There is a difference between probable cases we are counting and just natural causes for at home deaths. They arent all being reported as covid. Stop.

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You don't work for the NY health department or create these numbers. Probable COVID deaths is exactly what I am talking about. There is zero way for an EMT to inspect a dead body and determine it was COVID that did the deed. But you just acknowledged some of them at least are being coded that way. Point proven.

[ErinInTheSky]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:10 PM, BxEngine said:

This is a flat out lie. There is a difference between probable cases we are counting and just natural causes for at home deaths. They arent all being reported as covid. Stop.

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I was going to go over the protocol and how they define it but... its just not worth it.

[BxEngine]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:14 PM, PhineasC said:

You don't work for the NY health department or create these numbers. Probable COVID deaths is exactly what I am talking about. There is zero way for an EMT to inspect a dead body and determine it was COVID that did the deed. But you just acknowledged some of them at least are being coded that way. Point proven.

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No. You just said every home death is being counted as covid. That is a lie. They are counting PROBABLE deaths using reported symptoms by family or by the patient if they had previous hospital/ems contacts. Thats it. If they have no probable cause to label it as covid, they arent. Dont make shit up. 

[mappy]

mmmm who to believe

a NY firefighter on the front lines, or phineas

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:18 PM, BxEngine said:

No. You just said every home death is being counted as covid. That is a lie. They are counting PROBABLE deaths using reported symptoms by family or by the patient if they had previous hospital/ems contacts. Thats it. If they have no probable cause to label it as covid, they arent. Dont make shit up. 

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OK, so we agree deaths that are not test-confirmed COVID are being coded that way. Glad we found that common ground. You say it isn't everyone. OK, got it. But it's some of them.

[PhineasC]

There are doctors on the frontline in NYC saying we need to reopen and you guys don't believe them, so... pretty sure you guys will believe whatever fits the narrative in your heads and little else.

[PhineasC]

I wonder how many people are confused as to the difference between "death with COVID" and "death from COVID"? Probably quite a few people.

[OSUmetstud]

NYC separates confirmed and probable COVID deaths. It's not a conspiracy. Plus, there's studies going on that there is a likely a consistent under counting of deaths all over the world for COVID, including the USA. 

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:21 PM, OSUmetstud said:

NYC separates confirmed and probably COVID deaths. It's not a conspiracy. Plus, there's studies going on that there is a likely a consistent under counting of deaths all over the world for COVID, including the USA. 

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I don't see these numbers being separated when rolled into the national numbers that feed the models being used to justify the lockdowns.

[OSUmetstud]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:23 PM, PhineasC said:

I don't see these numbers being separated when rolled into the national numbers that feed the models being used to justify the lockdowns.

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Cuomo doesn't mention them in his state briefings, nor are they include in official NY state numbers. They are found on the NYC health page and listed under probable deaths. The cause of death is considered consistent with COVID, but doesn't have a confirmed test. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:21 PM, PhineasC said:

I wonder how many people are confused as to the difference between "death with COVID" and "death from COVID"? Probably quite a few people.

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You’re right it does seem like you are pretty confused about all this. 

[mappy]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:25 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Cuomo doesn't mention them in his state briefings, nor are they include in official NY state numbers. They are found on the NYC health page and listed under probable deaths. The cause of death is considered consistent with COVID, but doesn't have a confirmed test. 

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yup. MD separates out probable and confirmed as well. the death counts we see daily are only confirmed.

some sites, like worldometer, counts both but has made it clear that that they are doing it. just avoid those sources if you dont want to see it combined. its pretty easy.

[BxEngine]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:25 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Cuomo doesn't mention them in his state briefings, nor are they include in official NY state numbers. They are found on the NYC health page and listed under probable deaths. The cause of death is considered consistent with COVID, but doesn't have a confirmed test. 

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Deaths that dont list covid or probable covid on the death certificate still arent being counted (as of last week) even if there is a safe assumption it was covid related. Its not just “EMTs”, its based on the entire finding from first responder through the telemetry dr and up to the ME office. 

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:32 PM, BxEngine said:

Deaths that dont list covid or probable covid on the death certificate still arent being counted (as of last week) even if there is a safe assumption it was covid related. Its not just “EMTs”, its based on the entire finding from first responder through the telemetry dr and up to the ME office. 

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I would hope those aren't being counted if they aren't COVID or even probable COVID!

I am not seeing where NYC isn't including these probables in the national death counts. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

[ErinInTheSky]

 

 

 

 

One week in, Georgia's reopening appears to be doing nothing. Most restaurants still closed, nail salons opening are not getting customers, etc. I've heard some reports on NPR and have seen a lot on social media about this (I do social media monitoring as part of my job).

[PhineasC]

LOL WTF does this even mean:

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Probable deaths: People who did not have a positive COVID-19 laboratory test, but their death certificate lists as the cause of death "COVID-19" or an equivalent.

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What is an "equivalent"? ARDS or flu? These numbers seem totally bogus.

[BxEngine]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:35 PM, PhineasC said:

I would hope those aren't being counted if they aren't COVID or even probable COVID!

I am not seeing where NYC isn't including these probables in the death counts. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-start-reporting-probable-coronavirus-deaths-cdc-n1184821

“The city said a death was classified as probably due to the coronavirus if the deceased had no known positive laboratory test for the virus but the death certificate listed the cause of death as "COVID-19" or an equivalent.

A death was classified as not known to be confirmed as or probably coronavirus-related if the deceased had no known positive lab test and the death certificate did not list COVID-19 or an equivalent as a cause of death.”

[OSUmetstud]

man, **** this. 

[PhineasC]

  On 5/1/2020 at 3:38 PM, BxEngine said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-start-reporting-probable-coronavirus-deaths-cdc-n1184821

“The city said a death was classified as probably due to the coronavirus if the deceased had no known positive laboratory test for the virus but the death certificate listed the cause of death as "COVID-19" or an equivalent.

A death was classified as not known to be confirmed as or probably coronavirus-related if the deceased had no known positive lab test and the death certificate did not list COVID-19 or an equivalent as a cause of death.”

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The term "equivalent" here is totally nuts.