COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This is a hilarious example of why I said I feel dumber now than two months ago. One study says kids spread it, another expert says they don't. The CDC tells us masks aren't necessary, then they tell us they are. Experts say don't worry about shortages, now shortages are happening. The average person doesn't know what to believe anymore, that's why they panic and hoard toilet paper. 

i worry people will take these "studies" and run with it. Someone will believe their kids are "safe" and put them in situations they shouldn't be in (taking them to the store, as an example) and now you have very sick kids with parents thinking their kids were safe. 

I wish these kind of studies didn't even make public news until they are factually reviewed. 

[ErinInTheSky]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

i worry people will take these "studies" and run with it. Someone will believe their kids are "safe" and put them in situations they shouldn't be in (taking them to the store, as an example) and now you have very sick kids with parents thinking their kids were safe. 

I wish these kind of studies didn't even make public news until they are factually reviewed. 

It's like the wild west out there right now. Health experts citing mid-result collection statistical significance, studies getting cited pre-review, and reviews going through in 24 hours of publication. 

Peer review these days:

 

 

 

[mappy]

Yeah I know. Everyone wants to be the first to solve this without going through the proper peer-review studies. I understand why Trixie gets frustrated when she sees so many studies posted that haven't been peer-reviewed. Regardless of immediate need, it still needs to be reviewed.

[jaydreb]

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

i worry people will take these "studies" and run with it. Someone will believe their kids are "safe" and put them in situations they shouldn't be in (taking them to the store, as an example) and now you have very sick kids with parents thinking their kids were safe. 

I wish these kind of studies didn't even make public news until they are factually reviewed. 

It’s not a study per se. The citizens of Switzerland have been told by their leading expert that kids cannot spread the virus and that they can safely hug their grandparents.  

[mappy]

Just now, jaydreb said:

It’s not a study per se. The citizens of Switzerland have been told by their leading expert that kids cannot spread the virus and that they can safely hug their grandparents.  

yeah thats a dangerous thing to say and do.

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah thats a dangerous thing to say and do.

It may be or it may not.  I don’t know what he based his decision on and I’m not going to presume to know more than a qualified expert on the matter.  He obviously thinks the evidence supports it.  Other experts disagree.  

[H2O]

Just now, jaydreb said:

It may be or it may not.  I don’t know what he based his decision on and I’m not going to presume to know more than a qualified expert on the matter.  He obviously thinks the evidence supports it.  Other experts disagree.  

But they haven't locked down their country like we have.  Messaging that it might spread from child to adult could go against what the gov't there is doing as far as distancing.  There could be a political part to his actions.  Hard to know.

[aldie 22]

Have you ever seen a swiss kid under 10? They're like baby pigeons they don't exist that's why they can hug their grandparents. 

[jaydreb]

Just now, H2O said:

But they haven't locked down their country like we have.  Messaging that it might spread from child to adult could go against what the gov't there is doing as far as distancing.  There could be a political part to his actions.  Hard to know.

That’s a very cynical take (a scientist is willing to sacrifice the lives of his citizens for political reasons) but could be true.  I hope not. 

[H2O]

13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

That’s a very cynical take (a scientist is willing to sacrifice the lives of his citizens for political reasons) but could be true.  I hope not. 

It is.  I won't disagree with that.  I would be a shame to politicize something that could cost lives but we are seeing that become the norm in a lot of ways.  I'll gladly eat my hat if they show it can't be spread like this guy says.

[jaydreb]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

It is.  I won't disagree with that.  I would be a shame to politicize something that could cost lives but we are seeing that become the norm in a lot of ways.  I'll gladly eat my hat if they show it can't be spread like this guy says.

Yeah, I’d be surprised too.  I have no qualifications whatsoever but can’t see a reason why a kid couldn’t be a vector for this virus.  

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It wasn’t painful for me. The person said it would make me want to sneeze and my eyes watered up but that was it. Not the most comfortable, but it was over quickly.

Not covid related, but my gf has said that to me from time to time.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not covid related, but my gf has said that to me from time to time.

chuckled loudly

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

45 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Have you ever seen a swiss kid under 10? They're like baby pigeons they don't exist that's why they can hug their grandparents. 

Wow baby pigeons, never thought about that.  Where are the babies?

[H2O]

19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not covid related, but my gf has said that to me from time to time.

fist bump

[ErinInTheSky]

https://www.washingtonpost.com./local/new-coronavirus-cases-despite-shutdown/2020/04/30/a8e5685e-8566-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html?carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F28e6cf5%2F5eab2ef5fe1ff654c2c83708%2FYXJlZWQ0NC5sc3VAZ21haWwuY29t%2F8%2F57%2Fee333c6251089c09c108eea02af7d0a1&utm_campaign=wp_afternoon_buzz&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_buzz

 

Very fascinating WaPo article on how transmission is still going on weeks into lockdown. Basically... essential workers, daycares for those workers, taking it home to their families, and general small family/small group transmission. Interestingly there seem to also be people getting infected with no known source of exposure, who have stayed indoors at almost all times and the few times they ventured out, wore masks and were very vigilant.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

38 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com./local/new-coronavirus-cases-despite-shutdown/2020/04/30/a8e5685e-8566-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html?carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F28e6cf5%2F5eab2ef5fe1ff654c2c83708%2FYXJlZWQ0NC5sc3VAZ21haWwuY29t%2F8%2F57%2Fee333c6251089c09c108eea02af7d0a1&utm_campaign=wp_afternoon_buzz&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_buzz

 

Very fascinating WaPo article on how transmission is still going on weeks into lockdown. Basically... essential workers, daycares for those workers, taking it home to their families, and general small family/small group transmission. Interestingly there seem to also be people getting infected with no known source of exposure, who have stayed indoors at almost all times and the few times they ventured out, wore masks and were very vigilant.

Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown.  We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick. 

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown.  We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick. 

Or just cut our losses. We've done it before and it may not be optional .... was never a viable option ever throughout history. This is our turn to witness the savage inrush of the obscene.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Or just cut our losses. We've done it before and it may not be optional .... was never a viable option ever throughout history. This is our turn to witness the savage inrush of the obscene.

What do you mean by that?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown.  We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick. 

Imo we aren’t in near lockdown. Our version makes so many exceptions...we’ve taken a pretty middle ground policy and it’s not shocking that isn’t resulting in a total stifling of spread. 

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

What do you mean by that?

World Wars, diseases, etc have been with us since the beginning of civilization. People didn't meltdown they just pulled through. I agree that the stakes are higher now but it is what it is.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

What do you mean by that?

This isn’t going to end well  

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

World Wars, diseases, etc have been with us since the beginning of civilization. People didn't meltdown they just pulled through. I agree that the stakes are higher now but it is what it is.

It is what it is might make a decent bumper sticker but it’s a pretty shitty policy stance ON ANYTHING 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

World Wars, diseases, etc have been with us since the beginning of civilization. People didn't meltdown they just pulled through. I agree that the stakes are higher now but it is what it is.

Yeah I understand that, I just don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. 

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is might make a decent bumper sticker but it’s a pretty shitty policy stance ON ANYTHING 

Let's lockdown for 1 year and crash industrial civilization. It's not even possible ... people need to work because we would starve otherwise. The cities are ****ed.

It seems fate has made it's decision and the powers that be (nature) does not approve of our presence.

[40westwx]

22 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Remember that these estimates bump up the death toll and amount of cases by a considerable amount. You are picturing it like these death tolls should've been estimated at higher numbers, when in reality the estimations are likely accurate. However, when comparing those confirmed deaths at the time to those of COVID-19 currently, there's almost no comparison. Especially when considering that there have likely been a lot of explained deaths before when COVID-19 took off in the U.S

This also happened with H1N1, where confirmed deaths were a mere fraction of the "estimated" death toll of 12,000

^ Outdated graph but it gets the point across quite clearly (as of April 3rd in the graph)

The only way you could accurately compare what is going on today with what happened in past (recent) pandemics would be to rewrite history.  Basically you would need to:

1- Get the rna sequence of the strain of flu that was causing a spike in deaths during that year. 

2- Perform a PCR analysis on every single person who dies who to see if that person is carrying the an active virus.

If you could go back in history and do that.. then you might be comparing apples to apples.. 

Right now it is like we are tracking record high temperatures a couple weeks after inventing the thermometer. 

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I understand that, I just don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. 

There  is no point to life. It's just live and let live. That's my biggest concern with civilization. The collective delusion that we are on some path towards a "greater" future when the present is "good enough".

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Vice-Regent said:

There  is no point to life. It's just live and let live. That's my biggest concern with civilization. The collective delusion that we are on some path towards a "greater" future when the present is "good enough".

Hmmm that’s one way to look at it lol.  The present is pretty good compared to most of history IMO.  I’m glad I was born when and where I was.

 

[40westwx]

40 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hmmm that’s one way to look at it lol.  The present is pretty good compared to most of history IMO.  I’m glad I was born when and where I was.

 

oh yeah.. think about it.. basically half of the country was ordered to "work" from home.. to do their "non essential" jobs.. and on average these  are the people that get paid more than anyone  in our society.

The vast majority of people I work with push electronic forms of paper in some form or fashion. And they typically push that paper in some nonsensical bureaucratic circle to support some regulatory policy that was made up to support the bureaucracies that they create..

and then have meetings two or three times a day to figure out ways to make the bureaucracies more complex to make them feel better about themselves  

This Corona Virus phenomenon is beginning to make me think that our jobs are more or less a "front".  That the service industries that our economy are built on (like housing, food, transportation and entertainment production) are so efficient that all you really need are a core group of skilled blue collared workers to keep it going.  

Think about it.. the federal government sent home 80% of its workforce and nothing happened.

I always had this fantasy that maybe one day we simply paid the rest of America to go home and do nothing and keep getting paid (forever).. we could probably increase efficiency that way.  But there is one problem... who would we be sending home for the free ride?  White Collar America ie - all the electronic paper pushers who have "earned" their way in to a comfortable living by either college education or privileged.

And there is another problem.. how can we justify paying people for doing nothing?  You can't... because at that point the real Americans.. the skilled blue collar workforce.. would call bullshit.. 

With this Corina Virus stuff..  I am wondering how they havent called bullshit on it already.

[SnowtoRain]

14 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

oh yeah.. think about it.. basically half of the country was ordered to "work" from home.. to do their "non essential" jobs.. and on average these  are the people that get paid more than anyone  in our society.

The vast majority of people I work with push electronic forms of paper in some form or fashion. And they typically push that paper in some nonsensical bureaucratic circle to support some regulatory policy that was made up to support the bureaucracies that they create..

and then have meetings two or three times a day to figure out ways to make the bureaucracies more complex to make them feel better about themselves  

This Corona Virus phenomenon is beginning to make me think that our jobs are more or less a "front".  That the service industries that our economy are built on (like housing, food, transportation and entertainment production) are so efficient that all you really need are a core group of skilled blue collared workers to keep it going.  

Think about it.. the federal government sent home 80% of its workforce and nothing happened.

I always had this fantasy that maybe one day we simply paid the rest of America to go home and do nothing and keep getting paid (forever).. we could probably increase efficiency that way.  But there is one problem... who would we be sending home for the free ride?  White Collar America ie - all the electronic paper pushers who have "earned" their way in to a comfortable living by either college education or privileged.

And there is another problem.. how can we justify paying people for doing nothing?  You can't... because at that point the real Americans.. the skilled blue collar workforce.. would call bullshit.. 

With this Corina Virus stuff..  I am wondering how they havent called bullshit on it already.

This is pure conjecture and does nothing to add to the conversation