COVID-19 Talk

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

While it's a potentially good sign, folks really need to understand some key points:

1.) This is likely not going to be a vaccine.  In the history of Coronavirus vaccine research, there is no working vaccine for any derivative of Coronavirus.

2.) This is likely going to be a step forward in the treatment protocol but won't be commercially available for at least 6 months, even with all the red tape cut. The physical act of production takes a long time.

3.) Whatever happens with an eventual treatment first, it will initially go to hospitals for treating the most dire cases.

I'm going to hold out to see the results but from what I'm reading, medical twitter doesn't seem as hot on it as some are suggesting right now. For the reasons you mentioned and more.

Remember that a non-randomized clinical trial with a placebo failed to support hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, even though a doctor reported "34 patients fully recovered out of 35" on those drugs. A lot of these drugs show a ton of promise, then the double blind randomized control clinical trial dashes the hopes. This is because there are almost always biases that occur when treating patients in a non-random fashion.

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I know this is teetering on the edge and could fly off into way over the line if we aren't careful...but I find it somewhat "disingenuous" that most of the people making this argument right now for why we need to get back to work don't seem to care a lick about the negative effects of poverty under normal circumstances.   Many of the people using poverty as a reason for their policy advocacy now try to block any attempt at social programs to deal with poverty when they are proposed in every other situation.  I am NOT saying that is you...I have no idea what your stance on this stuff is...but in general my twitter feed and fb wall is filled with people ive argued with for years and who never gave a single F about doing a thing about poverty suddenly all upset about it now.  

This is very true.  My cynical side says that concern for those in poverty or on the low end of the wage scale only shows up when it affects those financially much better off (and the companies that hire the workers).  Such as during this COVID emergency.  And even then, it's only a tacit acknowledgement.  NOW there's concern, because businesses are losing money or supplies are short...with a "voice" of concern for those who cannot work due to shut downs.  Yet no concern for living wage, sick leave, etc., in relatively better times.  And even now, in this current situation...there are apparently some states contemplating that they will "require" certain industries to re-open, while stating that those employees who are nervous about going back and refuse, will be deemed as "voluntarily" not working.  And they will thus be ineligible for unemployment benefits.  That is truly sh*tty and back-handed.  Really low.  So yeah, where's the "concern" for those who are having it the roughest economically?

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm going to hold out to see the results but from what I'm reading, medical twitter doesn't seem as hot on it as some are suggesting right now. For the reasons you mentioned and more.

Remember that a non-randomized clinical trial with a placebo failed to support hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, even though a doctor reported "34 patients fully recovered out of 35" on those drugs. A lot of these drugs show a ton of promise, then the double blind randomized control clinical trial dashes the hopes. This is because there are almost always biases that occur when treating patients in a non-random fashion.

 

 

 I’m not sure how medical Twitter knows what to think considering the results have not been made public yet.  Even the tweet you quote says that this is “the real study to watch.”

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm going to hold out to see the results but from what I'm reading, medical twitter doesn't seem as hot on it as some are suggesting right now. For the reasons you mentioned and more.

Remember that a non-randomized clinical trial with a placebo failed to support hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, even though a doctor reported "34 patients fully recovered out of 35" on those drugs. A lot of these drugs show a ton of promise, then the double blind randomized control clinical trial dashes the hopes. This is because there are almost always biases that occur when treating patients in a non-random fashion.

 

 

My understanding is that the study compared 800 patients to placebo.  I’m not a scientist but if NIH says the results are positive (which hasn’t happened yet), that’s good enough for me.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

 I’m not sure how medical Twitter knows what to think considering the results have not been made public yet.  Even the tweet you quote says that this is “the real study to watch.”

The results have basically been leaked for a few hours now.

 

There is some potential good news from the NIAID study though. We'll see!

[jaydreb]

Just now, supernovasky said:

The results have basically been leaked for a few hours now.

 

There is some potential good news from the NIAID study though. We'll see!

That’s what I’m talking about.  The NIAID study.  I said it was possibly good news.

[H2O]

Speaking of workers having to work amid fears of getting sick, the poultry industry on the eastern shore is now a hotspot for COVID cases.

 

https://wjla.com/news/coronavirus/virus-cases-at-virginia-poultry-plants-raise-concerns

[ErinInTheSky]

 

It appears that Remdesivir works in the NIAID study. It's not a home run, but it can reduce mortality (11% to 8% among study participants). That's good news, it will result in fewer deaths. It by no means is a cure-all in the least though. But ANYTHING that reduces deaths at this point is fantastic news.

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Speaking of workers having to work amid fears of getting sick, the poultry industry on the eastern shore is now a hotspot for COVID cases.

 

https://wjla.com/news/coronavirus/virus-cases-at-virginia-poultry-plants-raise-concerns

yeah, supply chain is going to be a mess for a while. the walmart in PA i go to, hasnt had beef or chicken in weeks. they may on other days, but every time i've gone, its been empty shelves. 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

It appears that Remdesivir works in the NIAID study. It's not a home run, but it can reduce mortality (11% to 8% among study participants). That's good news, it will result in fewer deaths. It by no means is a cure-all in the least though. But ANYTHING that reduces deaths at this point is fantastic news.

 

A 25% reduction in mortality is very good news indeed.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

A 25% reduction in mortality is very good news indeed.  

Yup. It doesn't end the pandemic but at least gives doctors an option in their toolkit. This will make testing even more important now. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Next steps will be mass production and broader tests to see things like does administering it earlier help, are there longer term side effects, are there certain age groups where it's actually harmful or conditions where it's actually harmful, etc.

Hopefully we can find something better but at least there's something to try!

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

medical twitter knows that prior trials of this drug have been stopped, and that drug companies like to release propaganda designed to drive up their stock prices.

and the reason the NIAID is being emphasized is because that is the peer review of the trial by NIH and it will be based on science, not marketing.

I trust Dr. Fauci over medical Twitter.  Last time I checked he was an expert.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It is a really complex question.  We have almost achieved Great Depression level unemployment in a mere 6 weeks of Covid policies.  But on the flip side there have been nearly 60000 deaths in the country with more on the horizon.  We tend to get into shouting matches taking sides on this thread (I am certainly guilty of that).  But at the end of the day we are all assessing these challenging times and trying to figure out how we strike the right balance moving forward.  The answer is somewhere between life back to normal immediately and lockdown (stay at home, keep businesses closed by law) for 12-18 months until there is a vaccine.  There is an optimal solution in that vast grey area.  Trying to figure it out is the challenge.

It's not the policies, it's the epidemic.  If we didn't institute stay at homes pretty much everywhere would've been NYC and we'd be in just as bad of an economic hole, if not worse.

[ErinInTheSky]

Lol... The Lancet at the same time releases a study saying that Remdesivir does not work.

 

 

Things are going to be a little ****y until they sort this out.

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

I trust Dr. Fauci over medical Twitter.  Last time I checked he was an expert.  

i think you misunderstood her post. 

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i think you misunderstood her post. 

Very possible.  Didn’t Fauci report the positive results of the NIAID study as being “very important?”  

[ErinInTheSky]

Fauci just said that the improvement in death rates was not statistically significant.

However, it does improve recovery times and that was statistically significant.

 

This is live on CNN right now. What he can say is that it appears that the conclusion is, it is possible to block this virus with a drug. Remdesivir may not be that drug, and further studies are warranted. Remdesivir may end up being a treatment option, but there is uncertainty on if it helps at all with death rates. The best news though is it can direct people to what enzymes need to be blocked.

[ErinInTheSky]

Fauci was very careful to say that this "opens the door" to treatments, but it does not mean that this drug will be a treatment.

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Fauci just said that the improvement in death rates was not statistically significant.

However, it does improve recovery times and that was statistically significant.

 

This is live on CNN right now. What he can say is that it appears that the conclusion is, it is possible to block this virus with a drug. Remdesivir may not be that drug, and further studies are warranted. Remdesivir may end up being a treatment option, but there is uncertainty on if it helps at all with death rates. The best news though is it can direct people to what enzymes need to be blocked.

Thanks for the clarification.  Still seems like good news.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Thanks for the clarification.  Still seems like good news.  

Absolutely is. This may raise the timeline to where we are not waiting for a vaccine.

 

Which may make continued lockdowns and social distancing even MORE important given that we may have a treatment much earlier.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

interesting, could be relevant for schools if this result pans out

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

I volunteer at the DC Central Kitchen and Arlington VA Food Bank multiple times a year as part of our company's community give back program. The Arlington Food Bank is running 400% higher in volume month over month.. and this is in one of the richest counties in the US. I can't imagine the rural impacts.. 

All I'm saying is that we need to continue an approach that takes all factors into consideration, and begin to let people use their own judgment and take their own risks as to how they go about their daily lives. 

Agree but I’m skeptical we will proceed with compassion towards those in the vulnerable populations. Early indications from some states look more like a “that’s your problem” attitude then a “how do we protect the vulnerable population” one. 

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Very possible.  Didn’t Fauci report the positive results of the NIAID study as being “very important?”  

I believe so. And Trixie is in support of the NIAID study as it will be peer-reviewed. She also said the NIAID would be reviewing the Giliad results as well. 

As I said, i think you misunderstood her posts. 

[NorthArlington101]

interesting, could be relevant for schools if this result pans out

my question would be: was this data collected during school closures? If so, I gotta say this result seems obvious. Younger kids aren’t going to be going anywhere or spreading anything.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

my question would be: was this data collected during school closures? If so, I gotta say this result seems obvious. Younger kids aren’t going to be going anywhere or spreading anything.

Same. Other data showed that the closures themselves reduced viral transmission by 33% in areas that did staggered closings.

This particular tweet refers to a website, not really a study, not sure it's even going for peer review? 

[jaydreb]

13 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

there are 2 studies

--one done by the NIAID

--one done by a commercial drug company which is yet to be reviewed by the NIAID

Dr. Fauci was talking about the first one.  medical twitter and I have been talking about the second one.

Thanks.  I think the disconnect was that I was talking about the first one also, but someone replied referring to “medical twitter.”  It’s all good now, thanks. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree but I’m skeptical we will proceed with compassion towards those in the vulnerable populations. Early indications from some states look more like a “that’s your problem” attitude then a “how do we protect the vulnerable population” one. 

Agreed - completely wrong approach..

[ErinInTheSky]

 

Florida appears to be withholding death data.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

[mappy]

From Hogan's presser -- almost 300 confirmed cases of covid from poultry workers. Wicomico county having the highest density (not surprised)