COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, MDScot said:

Or if May 5th comes along and Georgia is doing as well or as bad as MD and VA ?  ... then what?

i think we need to define "well" for this to be a serious discussion. 

[psuhoffman]

@SnowGolfBro here is the problem with a lot of your argument. You’re coming at the question of when to open backwards. Our best virology experts should use all the available relevant evidence to formulate a plan to reopen and a metric for when it is safe to do so. When a State meets that criteria then by all means they should begin to implement the plan to ease restrictions. 

But a lot of your policy advocacy is based on anecdotal things like “I know people are fed up”. What does those feelings of frustration have to do with whether it is safe to open?  The virus doesn’t care about our feelings. Then you support that anecdotal based view with cherry picked data or speculation about the data with the obvious motive of validating your feelings. 

You aren’t letting logical scientific methodology drive your policy. Your preferred policy is driving your methodology. 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i think we need to define "well" for this to be a serious discussion. 

I think “well” would be defined as doing no worse than GA was doing prior to reopening.  So perhaps take a snapshot in time on 4/24 and then reassess compared to that snapshot on 5/5.  If there hasn’t been any significant increase in hospitalizations/deaths then you could say the decision turned out “well” i suppose.

[jonjon]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I think “well” would be defined as doing no worse than GA was doing prior to reopening.  So perhaps take a snapshot in time on 4/24 and then reassess compared to that snapshot on 5/5.  If there hasn’t been any significant increase in hospitalizations/deaths then you could say the decision turned out “well” i suppose.

You'll have to go out further than 5/5 to get a feel for how well things went in Georgia.  At least a month IMO.  There is a pretty big lag with infections and eventual hospitalization/deaths that won't rear its head until (and if) enough time has lapsed to see what verifies.

[HighStakes]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

On the flip side of a sane re-opening process:

 

I watched the entire interview. It was hard to watch as the mayor kept digging herself deeper into a hole. Simply unbelievable. Just remarkable how some people get elected into office. 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@SnowGolfBro here is the problem with a lot of your argument. You’re coming at the question of when to open backwards. Our best virology experts should use all the available relevant evidence to formulate a plan to reopen and a metric for when it is safe to do so. When a State meets that criteria then by all means they should begin to implement the plan to ease restrictions. 

But a lot of your policy advocacy is based on anecdotal things like “I know people are fed up”. What does your families feelings of frustration have to do with whether it is safe to open?  The virus doesn’t care about your feelings. Then you support that anecdotal based view with cherry picked data or speculation about the data with the obvious motive of validating your feelings. 

You aren’t letting logical scientific methodology drive your policy. Your preferred policy is driving your methodology. 

At some point individuals have to be able to assess the risk for themselves. Just like people have been doing everyday for a long time with various other risk factors.  Virologists can give us great tools to help us make those decisions.  But i don’t think they should be setting public policy in the long term.  If logical scientific methodology says we need 90 additional days of the current policies, then i would weigh that against what i believe the consequences of such policies over 90 additional days and make a decision.  I’m not arguing that If u lock yourself in your basement u are less likely to get coronavirus.  I’m just saying sooner rather than later that has to be an individual decision and not a collective one.

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

States like Maryland that have active cases in the 10s of thousands probably will IMO.  States with lower numbers might feel like they have a little more latitude. 
 

ETA: of course we know that Florida, Texas, etc, ain’t gonn wait for nothin 

I automatically read that part in a southern accent...lol

[Vice-Regent]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I figured someone like you would celebrate this pandemic. Much lower emissions this year and a possible multi year depression that may follow.

It's better than the alternative of 3 billion people starving to death in 2040. I don't think it's up for debate. We needed this.

Coronavirus provides a grace period to adjust our toxic behaviors.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

At some point individuals have to be able to assess the risk for themselves. Just like people have been doing everyday for a long time with various other risk factors.  Virologists can give us great tools to help us make those decisions.  But i don’t think they should be setting public policy in the long term.  If logical scientific methodology says we need 90 additional days of the current policies, then i would weigh that against what i believe the consequences of such policies over 90 additional days and make a decision.  I’m not arguing that If u lock yourself in your basement u are less likely to get coronavirus.  I’m just saying sooner rather than later that has to be an individual decision and not a collective one.

If you think pandemic response policy should fall under individual and not collective action we will have to agree to disagree. But the preponderance of evidence and public opinion is not on your side with that belief. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

that individual decision will cost collective lives. that’s why it isn’t going to work like that.

 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If you think pandemic response policy should fall under individual and not collective action we will have to agree to disagree. But the preponderance of evidence and public opinion is not on your side with that belief. 

This and this. Pandemic response is a group effort--not an individual one!

[Wonderdog]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

 

This and this. Pandemic response is a group effort--not an individual one!

I assumed he was talking about individual decisions but under the umbrella of the phrase in periods. Am I wrong?

[Inverted_Trough]

Federalism doesn't work very well in a crisis.  I think that's why the US is struggling so much with this problem.

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If you think pandemic response policy should fall under individual and not collective action we will have to agree to disagree. But the preponderance of evidence and public opinion is not on your side with that belief. 

Agreed at this point in time. I realize I’m in the minority on this board and public opinion. But i do think that will change in the coming weeks.  May 15 is the date i have circled for when public support will begin to wane for widespread lockdowns. 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I assumed he was talking about individual decisions but under the umbrella of the phrase in periods. Am I wrong?

U are right.

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I think “well” would be defined as doing no worse than GA was doing prior to reopening.  So perhaps take a snapshot in time on 4/24 and then reassess compared to that snapshot on 5/5.  If there hasn’t been any significant increase in hospitalizations/deaths then you could say the decision turned out “well” i suppose.

"well" is not a good enough criteria to use to open states. Come up with something else.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

32 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Right. NY/NJ area is the outlier. Plus MA and MD. Deaths and hospitalizations are key, not cases imo.

I think the thing the governors and protestors aren’t acknowledging is that even if we “open up” and it goes relatively well it’s going to be a long road to economic recovery.  If the early openings make it worse it’s going to take even longer.  

[H2O]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Agreed at this point in time. I realize I’m in the minority on this board and public opinion. But i do think that will change in the coming weeks.  May 15 is the date i have circled for when public support will begin to wane for widespread lockdowns. 

Then it is imperative for the ones knowledgeable about this to be the ones to dictate to the public and educate them that this is important and not have their current support for distancing “wane”

If everyone listens to the recommendations and not the wackadoos bloviating on TV and social media then I don’t think they will suddenly want everything open

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Agreed at this point in time. I realize I’m in the minority on this board and public opinion. But i do think that will change in the coming weeks.  May 15 is the date i have circled for when public support will begin to wane for widespread lockdowns. 

and if public support doesn't wane? then what?

[H2O]

Snapshots of cases or deaths on a specific day aren’t anywhere near the best way to measure success or failure in what may/may not work

[Mrs.J]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know we’re close to descending into our daily circular firing squad, but I wanted to take a moment to discuss the other terrible aspect of this pandemic—people who can’t cook being forced to feed themselves.

@Mrs.J, the Senator needs you!

This is brilliant. I saw that horrible excuse for a tuna melt last night. I like mayo and all but holy crap! And not draining the tuna and then the ultimate kick in the gut with it in the microwave!! 
 

Here are the tuna melts I make! Just had them a couple of nights ago. 
 

[mappy]

Just now, Mrs.J said:

This is brilliant. I saw that horrible excuse for a tuna melt last night. I like mayo and all but holy crap! And not draining the tuna and then the ultimate kick in the gut with it in the microwave!! 
 

Here are the tuna melts I make! Just had them a couple of nights ago. 
 

can i come and be under stay-at-home orders with you?

[Wonderdog]

15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think the thing the governors and protestors aren’t acknowledging is that even if we “open up” and it goes relatively well it’s going to be a long road to economic recovery.  If the early openings make it worse it’s going to take even longer.  

Relatively well may become the "new normal ". But I'm confident that our virologists will come thru with anti-virals fairly soon. It's going to be a long road to economic recovery anyway. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long to start.

[SnowGolfBro]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

and if public support doesn't wane? then what?

Then i will be wrong and the lockdowns will continue.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

This is brilliant. I saw that horrible excuse for a tuna melt last night. I like mayo and all but holy crap! And not draining the tuna and then the ultimate kick in the gut with it in the microwave!! 
 

Here are the tuna melts I make! Just had them a couple of nights ago. 
 

That's great!  Somehow, just knew you'd have such a recipe handy!  I see you have a box of Stoned Wheat Thins there...I get those same crackers fairly often, very tasty!

(ETA:  I actually scored some yeast in the baking aisle the other day, after weeks of not seeing it!  It was like a veritable miracle, I thought I heard choral voices from above!  They had a couple of boxes filled with those packets that have 3 "servings".  I just took 2 packets...wasn't going to be "that guy" and take an entire box, haha!)

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Then i will be wrong and the lockdowns will continue.  

It's not up to you. Sorry but no .. you will be arrested and contained if you break lock-down. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

can i come and be under stay-at-home orders with you?

Or if that doesn't work...does @Mrs.J have curb-side pickup???

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Relatively well may become the "new normal ". But I'm confident that our virologists will come thru with anti-virals fairly soon. It's going to be a long road to economic recovery anyway. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long to start.

I’ve said this before but IMO the biggest risk to our economy is opening too soon, wave 1 never really ends through the summer, then wave 2 comes roaring back in the fall. Then it’s back to full lockdowns. 

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I watched the entire interview. It was hard to watch as the mayor kept digging herself deeper into a hole. Simply unbelievable. Just remarkable how some people get elected into office. 

I did too.

A must see. 

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/las-vegas-mayor-shocks-anderson-cooper-in-jawdropping-marathon-of-an-interview-that-is-really-ignorant/

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I did too.

A must see. 

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/las-vegas-mayor-shocks-anderson-cooper-in-jawdropping-marathon-of-an-interview-that-is-really-ignorant/

Usually these interviews last 5 minutes or so. This one went on forever. Producers must have been in Anderson's ear to keep her going as long as possible.  

[CAPE]

Just now, HighStakes said:

Usually these interviews last 5 minutes or so. This one went on forever. Producers must have been in Anderson's ear to keep her going as long as possible.  

Yeah, it was a total holy F**k.