SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just got a message that an employee at my sons daycare died of covid yesterday. Was a very nice guy and not that old, probably only in his late 50s or early 60s. What a terrible virus. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Just got a message that an employee at my sons daycare died of covid yesterday. Was a very nice guy and not that old, probably only in his late 50s or early 60s. What a terrible virus. So terrible. I go back and forth between being non-chalant and being terrified of this virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So terrible. I go back and forth between being non-chalant and being terrified of this virus. I mean, *knocks on wood*, as a reasonably healthy guy in my mid 30s the chances are low this would be bad for me personally, but so many people I know are older and/or have health conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I mean, *knocks on wood*, as a reasonably healthy guy in my mid 30s the chances are low this would be bad for me personally, but so many people I know are older and/or have health conditions. I hear you. And it’s really hitting me that now, at age 45, I’m no longer in the young category that I’ve considered myself to be part of my whole life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So terrible. I go back and forth between being non-chalant and being terrified of this virus. Same...It's like, some days, it feels like "okay, it's out there, but we're okay" and others, it's like the potential of how serious it can be kinda hits you...and it feels like a big cloud of doom looming outside the house, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I hear you. And it’s really hitting me that now, at age 45, I’m no longer in the young category that I’ve considered myself to be part of my whole life. I’m nearing 50(not yet this year) and in good shape. But I know younger people than me who have it and they are beat up. I don’t want it. What it might could can has potential to do scares me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I’m nearing 50(not yet this year) and in good shape. But I know younger people than me who have it and they are beat up. I don’t want it. What it might could can has potential to do scares me. Absolutely, it seems like if the virus can manage to get into your lungs it doesn't really matter how old you are, it's going to beat you up pretty badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 57 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Just got a message that an employee at my sons daycare died of covid yesterday. Was a very nice guy and not that old, probably only in his late 50s or early 60s. What a terrible virus. sorry to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Lots of states reporting high death counts today. New York is improving for certain, but it's clear in terms of deaths, many others are starting to reach their peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 NYC has a tornado warning, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 " (For NYC) A friend sent me: “Take shelter.” WHAT DO YOU THINK I HAVE BEEN DOING FOR SIX WEEKS???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Ok so let’s try 90 days...so far we haven’t done it at all so not sure what your point here is. I never said freeze forever! And I never said there are no consequences but it’s a manageable problem. Lesser of evils and all that Jazz. But the main consequences of that policy would be the executives at these institutions would have to stop drawing multi million dollar salaries during the emergency freeze. I think most could live with that...the alternative on the other hand... Banks are allowing people to suspend payments for mortgages currently. Why do you presume that “only executives drawing multi million dollar salaries” would be affected? What evidence do u have for such a statement? I work in the financial services sector and have had detailed discussions with bank executives on exactly the scenario we are discussing. It’s way more complex than just shutting it down. It will cause some damage in the short term that can be mitigated. But all the people i trust on this subject have said that after 90 days it starts to get really hairy really fast. I think we are on a similar page here in the short term. It’s long term where we may disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: NYC has a tornado warning, yikes. For real?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Lots of states reporting high death counts today. New York is improving for certain, but it's clear in terms of deaths, many others are starting to reach their peaks. Jersey with 379, highest one day total yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, supernovasky said: " (For NYC) A friend sent me: “Take shelter.” WHAT DO YOU THINK I HAVE BEEN DOING FOR SIX WEEKS???? My first though was at least everybody is inside in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Banks are allowing people to suspend payments for mortgages currently. Why do you presume that “only executives drawing multi million dollar salaries” would be affected? What evidence do u have for such a statement? I work in the financial services sector and have had detailed discussions with bank executives on exactly the scenario we are discussing. It’s way more complex than just shutting it down. It will cause some damage in the short term that can be mitigated. But all the people i trust on this subject have said that after 90 days it starts to get really hairy really fast. I think we are on a similar page here in the short term. It’s long term where we may disagree. The current measures are uneven and not enough. Some banks. Some landlords. Some utilities. It’s a patchwork incomplete system. But the bigger problem is this creates imbalances rage do threaten the system. Some debts do still need to be serviced. Some people still need to be paid. A total freeze of all financial obligations for a set period doesn’t create those same inequities and imbalances. There would still be some and it would require some intelligent monetary interventions by the government to mitigate but far less trouble than the crazy uncoordinated patchwork measures now. Yes it can’t last forever. Even the smaller imbalances and gaps would eventually create huge problems but it can be done for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 It seems like we’re gonna blow past the IHME projection of 60,000 deaths by August, heck at this rate we’ll be there by the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: For real?? Yeah, it was radar based, don't think it actually materialized though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It seems like we’re gonna blow past the IHME projection of 60,000 deaths by August, heck at this rate we’ll be there by the end of April. Maybe. And then again maybe not. The spread is going to slow naturally as cold and flu season winds to a close over the next couple weeks. This in conjunction with social distancing could Lead to a dramatic reduction in infection and death by early May. Also, i just saw that subways are still running in NYC. How in the world have we taken all of these measures around the country and possibly the single biggest spreader of disease is still running. Boggled my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Maybe. And then again maybe not. The spread is going to slow naturally as cold and flu season winds to a close over the next couple weeks. This in conjunction with social distancing could Lead to a dramatic reduction in infection and death by early May. Also, i just saw that subways are still running in NYC. How in the world have we taken all of these measures around the country and possibly the single biggest spreader of disease is still running. Boggled my mind I dunno, it would have to slow down really fast to not past 60,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It seems like we’re gonna blow past the IHME projection of 60,000 deaths by August, heck at this rate we’ll be there by the end of April. I think very close to 60K at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I dunno, it would have to slow down really fast to not past 60,000. Again.. during 2017-2018 there were approximately 80,000 people that died in the US from the flu.. but this is confirmed laboratory tests. During those years at the height of the outbreak, there were on average 12,000 more deaths PER WEEK than the same weeks in previous years. Thats huge number.. a crazy anomaly... and the only difference that year was the flu outbreak. So you can safely assume that over at least 80,000 more peopled died from flu that year. i have tables graphs and sources to back this up. And most of those deaths were in Florida or California. They were this year's New York.. But we will never know the true severity of COVID-19 because Social Distancing is interrupting the natural process by lengthening the time in which the virus sticks around in a given population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I dunno, it would have to slow down really fast to not past 60,000. Agreed. I’m not saying we won’t get to 60000. I honestly think by May 15 we will be under 100 deaths a day nationwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Flu outbreaks can be awful... But we’ve lost about 45,000 Americans in about 7 weeks after taking unprecedented action to stop the spread. There’s no comparison at all. There’s no doubt in my mind this would be orders of magnitude worse if we proceeded business as usual. We just don't know. Remember Sweden kept schools open and there are populations all over the planet (like the poor, overcrowded, semi homeless sections of cities throughout various cites in the world) that violate social distancing by merely existing. What we see are hotspots.. where it seems really bad.. and then there is the rest of the world where the spread is more or less consistent and manageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Again.. during 2017-2018 there were approximately 80,000 people that died in the US from the flu.. but this is confirmed laboratory tests. During those years at the height of the outbreak, there were on average 12,000 more deaths PER WEEK than the same weeks in previous years. Thats huge number.. a crazy anomaly... and the only difference that year was the flu outbreak. So you can safely assume that over at least 80,000 more peopled died from flu that year. i have tables graphs and sources to back this up. And most of those deaths were in Florida or California. They were this year's New York.. But we will never know the true severity of COVID-19 because Social Distancing is interrupting the natural process by lengthening the time in which the virus sticks around in a given population. This is not at all relevant to the current discussion. Maybe you should start a flu thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Flu outbreaks can be awful... But we’ve lost about 45,000 Americans in about 7 weeks after taking unprecedented action to stop the spread. There’s no comparison at all. There’s no doubt in my mind this would be orders of magnitude worse if we proceeded business as usual. And the majority of those have been in the last 3 weeks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I dunno, it would have to slow down really fast to not past 60,000. Yeah seriously...at the rate we're going even in a couple weeks we could be at 60k, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Agreed. I’m not saying we won’t get to 60000. I honestly think by May 15 we will be under 100 deaths a day nationwide. Wait...you think the national death toll for the entire country will decline to 100 much by then? But how...unless we see the new infections go down quite a bit between now and the end of the month, I don't know how we get there that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Flu outbreaks can be awful... But we’ve lost about 45,000 Americans in about 7 weeks after taking unprecedented action to stop the spread. There’s no comparison at all. There’s no doubt in my mind this would be orders of magnitude worse if we proceeded business as usual. Yeah at this point I think we gotta put the flu comparison to bed...because again, when have we ever had a flu season take out 45k in just seven weeks?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Ah! What happened?? Hadn't been on worldometer since earlier this afternoon and it felt like it was gonna be a decent day...then I look again just now...mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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