COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’m making a prediction based on the evidence i see.  I think by May 15 the majority of the people in this country will be in support of easing/ending the lockdown in their particular area.  I’m not saying that is right or wrong because i don’t know where we will be on May 15 as far as the virus goes.  If Fauci or other local Heath officials say we need to have lockdown policies for 6 more months then there “trust” polling will be in the gutter.  Not because they aren’t giving their honest opinion, but because there are other factors that people are weighing.

I think you’re right that everyone wants to end the lockdowns ASAP but I also think most people are smart enough to know this is not political oppression and those protests are utterly moronic. By the middle of May most places will hopefully be well on their way to undoing the restrictions anyway. 

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think you’re right that everyone wants to end the lockdowns ASAP but I also think most people are smart enough to know this is not political oppression and those protests are utterly moronic. By the middle of May most places will hopefully be well on their way to undoing the restrictions anyway. 

I agree to a certain extent.  It is political oppression if the government does not allow you to have basic freedoms.  Whether it is justified in the short term is certainly up for debate.  If places are well on their way to opening up and undoing restrictions by mid May then my prediction is mostly a moot point. 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The protests will only increase as each additional week continues the  stay at home orders in many states .Some of these protesters are idiots no doubt but many have their lives already shattered or very close to being shattered and in some cases permanently. Millions of paycheck to  paycheck people that were in deep financial strain a month ago . Each week longer  now is like  a month to many of these folks. Many depleting their savings already and most didn't even have any savings . The fact is many are becoming desperate and will do anything to keep their lives from total destruction.  To compound ...unemployment check processing policies in many states are out of date or can't handle the volume and some people aren't eligible . I'm wagering most of these people would do whatever it takes safety wise to get themselves back to work . Only A very  small minority imo don't give a crap or are conspiracy driven. Just my observation which doesn't mean much lol. There's no easy or obvious answer to any of this.  It's all best guess and shoot from the hip .  Stay healthy people. 

This is well written and well thought out.  And helps articulate my position that mid May is kind of going to be the tipping point barring any serious relaxation of lockdown policies.  People’s lives are being destroyed every day by the response to Covid.  At some point this will reach a breaking point which i surmise is about 3 weeks.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

This is well written and well thought out.  And helps articulate my position that mid May is kind of going to be the tipping point barring any serious relaxation of lockdown policies.  People’s lives are being destroyed every day by the response to Covid.  At some point this will reach a breaking point which i surmise is about 3 weeks.

The question will then be, depending on where we're at, will the bounceback be significant or will shops open up to empty tables and a significant portion of people who don't want to engage? 

 

Things were pretty slow before the lockdowns, and if the virus goes right back to taking off... 

 

I just hope we're where we need to be and that doesn't happen when we open up, because we've secured test kits and are ready to contact trace.

[Inverted_Trough]

The restrictions during World War II were far more limiting than what we're experiencing right now.  I can't imagine how today's folks would have fared back then. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

The restrictions during World War II were far more limiting than what we're experiencing right now.  I can't imagine how today's folks would have fared back then. 

True. And Trump has labeled himself a wartime president over this, so before people say it's not comparable..

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is well written and well thought out.  And helps articulate my position that mid May is kind of going to be the tipping point barring any serious relaxation of lockdown policies.  People’s lives are being destroyed every day by the response to Covid.  At some point this will reach a breaking point which i surmise is about 3 weeks.

I wish there was a way for all of us to see what the hospitals in cities across the country would have looked like had there not been a lock down. 
 

There are no easy answers, but doing nothing and letting this run uncontrolled with no compassion doesn’t seem like a good option to me.

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

The question will then be, depending on where we're at, will the bounceback be significant or will shops open up to empty tables and a significant portion of people who don't want to engage? 

 

Things were pretty slow before the lockdowns, and if the virus goes right back to taking off... 

 

I just hope we're where we need to be and that doesn't happen when we open up, because we've secured test kits and are ready to contact trace.

I agree that certain businesses may open up to less traffic.  But businesses fail all the time because people decide not to show up and use their services.  If businesses are allowed to operate freely and they go out of business because people don’t come, then so be it.  But i actually think many will be shocked at how many people will go to malls, restaurants, vacation spots, etc when given the choice to do so.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

OK, this may be borderline political here, but aren't nearly all of these "protests" of the astroturf variety?  As in they're contrived and well funded by various groups, not some individual grass-roots organizers.  Think of the infamous "Brooks Brothers Riot" back during the Florida 2000 recount fiasco.

Now...concerning "opening up", I agree that it will have to be done discretely, and depending on how much testing is done...like what Gov. Hogan is advocating.  So open some things marginally, see what happens, and be prepared to close it up again if cases spike.  Something like that.  I cannot imagine anyone really wanting to go all in 100% at once.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

The restrictions during World War II were far more limiting than what we're experiencing right now.  I can't imagine how today's folks would have fared back then. 

Funny you mention that.  I was just talking to a friend the other day and we discussed just this.  What would some of these (loudly complaining) people today do in the 1930s or 1940s during the Depression and WW-II, with all the restrictions and required sacrifice to assist the war effort and to climb out of the economic disaster?

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wish there was a way for all of us to see what the hospitals in cities across the country would have looked like had there not been a lock down. 
 

There are no easy answers, but doing nothing and letting this run uncontrolled with no compassion doesn’t seem like a good option to me.

Have we done nothing? Are 30+ days of lockdowns, 10s of millions of lost jobs, closed schools, and so on showing no compassion?  We can’t know what would have happened if we did nothing.  I agree that these measures had a positive effect on hospitals not getting overflowed.  But i can’t prove that either.  But the compassion needs to go both ways.  I have compassion for the laid off employees, the kids missing school, those suffering depression or domestic violence due to our “compassion”.  

[aldie 22]

I can't go for a walk without people veering 50' off to the side. Sure we open up restaurants and parks and theaters...everyone will all of the sudden rub noses like the eskimoses...I can see more businesses going under once they open back up due to zero customers. Sad reality...it is heartbreaking.  

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Have we done nothing? Are 30+ days of lockdowns, 10s of millions of lost jobs, closed schools, and so on showing no compassion?  We can’t know what would have happened if we did nothing.  I agree that these measures had a positive effect on hospitals not getting overflowed.  But i can’t prove that either.  But the compassion needs to go both ways.  I have compassion for the laid off employees, the kids missing school, those suffering depression or domestic violence due to our “compassion”.  

It's been a bitter pill to swallow but unfortunately something we had to do. Hopefully it ends by May 15.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Have we done nothing? Are 30+ days of lockdowns, 10s of millions of lost jobs, closed schools, and so on showing no compassion?  We can’t know what would have happened if we did nothing.  I agree that these measures had a positive effect on hospitals not getting overflowed.  But i can’t prove that either.  But the compassion needs to go both ways.  I have compassion for the laid off employees, the kids missing school, those suffering depression or domestic violence due to our “compassion”.  

I also have compassion for kids missing school (I have one myself...though at least doing online stuff for what it's worth), employees who are now laid off, small businesses that are going under and losing employees, etc.  I'd wager that a huge majority have compassion as well, it's not just a one way street.

That's precisely why Congress needs to come up with some inventive ways to assist people during this whole crisis.  I'm far from an expert in knowing exactly what to even do (not an economist, and don't even play one on TV, and I have not stayed in a Holiday Inn Express any time recently!!).  Invest in some type of temporary income assistance?  Debt forgiveness?  Who knows...something like that, I suppose, and on a large scale.  We'll need to re-think things in how to deal with such situations again...much how we had to do the same in the Depression.  Not much of a time to be timid here.

[aldie 22]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

31 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I agree to a certain extent.  It is political oppression if the government does not allow you to have basic freedoms.  Whether it is justified in the short term is certainly up for debate.  If places are well on their way to opening up and undoing restrictions by mid May then my prediction is mostly a moot point. 

This is absolutely NOT political oppression.  Political oppression has to be persecution of a particular group for a political purpose.  This does not meet either of those criteria.  It is a public health emergency. 

[nw baltimore wx]

27 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Have we done nothing? Are 30+ days of lockdowns, 10s of millions of lost jobs, closed schools, and so on showing no compassion?  We can’t know what would have happened if we did nothing.  I agree that these measures had a positive effect on hospitals not getting overflowed.  But i can’t prove that either.  But the compassion needs to go both ways.  I have compassion for the laid off employees, the kids missing school, those suffering depression or domestic violence due to our “compassion”.  

The 30 days of lock down, etc, was a result of what I think is the lesser of two evils. The way some people are selfishly acting right now is anything but compassionate in spite of the fact that what transpired in the last 30 days may have saved them or a loved one. And I’m not on the side that catching this virus will kill everyone, but it would have done more damage, and still can, if there isn’t adequate health care. There has been adequate care so far, but It’s a result of the very lock down some people want to eliminate. I’m all for reopening, but it has to be slow.

[jaydreb]

It seems to me that just about everyone here is in agreement but doesn’t even realize it:

—The 15-day and subsequent 45-day shutdowns were unfortunate but necessary

—We should try to gradually open things as soon as we can do so safely, and hopefully this can be sometime in May.  We can’t just open everything at once and there will continue to be restrictions on larger gatherings, etc., until we have a therapeutic or vaccine.  

For all the back and forth debating, I don’t see any real disagreement on these points.  I don’t see anyone saying that we should keep everything closed forever or that we should open everything immediately.  

[poolz1]

17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I can't go for a walk without people veering 50' off to the side. Sure we open up restaurants and parks and theaters...everyone will all of the sudden rub noses like the eskimoses...I can see more businesses going under once they open back up due to zero customers. Sad reality...it is heartbreaking.  

Agree, it is heartbreaking.  If you enjoy the incubation period of a small business more than the successful years that follow, the next 5 years will be a sight to see.  Sure, we will have a vaccine by then but I do agree that society will be changed for the next decade or maybe much longer.  Hell, my grandparents still kept cash in the freezer due to their distrust of banks.  60 years later and the great depression was still affecting their way of thinking.

The entrepreneurial spirit is strong and any vacuums will be filled.  I know a guy that owns a unique blasting (as in sand) service that is currently outfitting his trailer units so they have the ability to spray disinfectant at various businesses.  

Dont get me wrong, the pain and heartache is and will be real for many small/medium size businesses....and I feel greatly for those people.  

Some folk's business will go under and lives will be ruined, some will see a new opportunity, some will be more apt to flex and bend toward a new way of doing what they do.

[ErinInTheSky]

 

bold strategy cotton

[H2O]

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

The restrictions during World War II were far more limiting than what we're experiencing right now.  I can't imagine how today's folks would have fared back then. 

My dad was born in 1936 so he was a part of the tail end of the Great Depression and jumped right into WW2/  The stuff he told me of what they did/didn't have as a kid was stunning.  

Now we have groups of people going out to protest and butthurt they can't get a damn haircut or lawn gnomes with ease.  There are just ridiculous narratives being pushed when reality is that a ton of people will suffer if we don't listen to the experts.

[ErinInTheSky]

Well in two weeks we should have the answer to two things that have been debated here:

 

- Will people actually engage in significant economic activity when the lockdown is lifted mid pandemic?

 

- Will we see increasing cases and deaths 2 weeks later?

[H2O]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Meanwhile in Georgia...

 

 

My list of things NOT to do after this is all over grows.  I'm adding never visiting GA to that.

[mappy]

32 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The 30 days of lock down, etc, was a result of what I think is the lesser of two evils. The way some people are selfishly acting right now is anything but compassionate in spite of the fact that what transpired in the last 30 days may have saved them or a loved one. And I’m not on the side that catching this virus will kill everyone, but it would have done more damage, and still can, if there isn’t adequate health care. There has been adequate care so far, but It’s a result of the very lock down some people want to eliminate. I’m all for reopening, but it has to be slow.

This. So much.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I’ve noticed something that is bugging me about the framing of the economic consequences vs public health debate by the people arguing against lockdowns.  People who are arguing that the economic consequences are worse than the direct covid deaths are comparing the current state of the economy to the pre pandemic economy.  That pre pandemic economy would’ve been wiped away with or without lockdowns.  What they should be comparing the current economy with is what the state of the economy would be without lockdowns.  Without lockdowns the epidemic would be even more widespread, deaths would be way higher, hospital systems would be overwhelmed.  There is an argument to made that the state of the economy with lockdowns is much better than it would’ve been without a lockdown.  Either way, comparing the current economy to the pre pandemic economy and saying we shouldn’t have done a lockdown doesn’t make any sense IMO, since that economy would’ve been gone either way. 

[jaydreb]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

bold strategy cotton

The headline doesn’t mention that these businesses can only open with specific health precautions and social distancing mandates.  The tweet seems to imply that these business are fully open as normal.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Meanwhile in Georgia...

 

 

Liberate!!!1!1!!

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

The headline doesn’t mention that these businesses can only open with specific health precautions and social distancing mandates.  The tweet seems to imply that these business are fully open as normal.  

We will see what kind of effect these precautions have lol. Let’s just reconnect in 2 weeks.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

The headline doesn’t mention that these businesses can only open with specific health precautions and social distancing mandates.  The tweet seems to imply that these business are fully open as normal.  

Apparently they’ve invented six foot scissors and nail files.

[jaydreb]

Just now, supernovasky said:

We will see what kind of effect these precautions have lol. Let’s just reconnect in 2 weeks.

I don’t understand.  I thought I recall you saying that you thought things would be reopening in May.  This is a few days short of May.