ErinInTheSky Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 7:49 PM, PhineasC said: OK, hadn't seen that. I think schools should stay closed but daycares are a tough call. Expand Its a tough situation. At least schools are naturally closed during the summer so it won't be a hard decision to make. Daycares are going to be tough because I can imagine that many people may not want to bring their kids back to daycare. I'm sad that my son might actually never see his daycare friends again because he's about to start Kindergarten. I've been considering just pulling him entirely. We're still doing online distance learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 7:53 PM, supernovasky said: Its a tough situation. At least schools are naturally closed during the summer so it won't be a hard decision to make. Daycares are going to be tough because I can imagine that many people may not want to bring their kids back to daycare. I'm sad that my son might actually never see his daycare friends again because he's about to start Kindergarten. I've been considering just pulling him entirely. We're still doing online distance learning. Expand Yeah I’m also wondering if I should continue to pay for daycare, i was planning on pulling my kids out this summer since I’m a teacher and I can look after them over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 8:10 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I’m also wondering if I should continue to pay for daycare, i was planning on pulling my kids out this summer since I’m a teacher and I can look after them over the summer. Expand I just hate it because I love his teachers. They love him too. I've been paying half price for the distance learning option just because it keeps his teacher employed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 7:43 PM, supernovasky said: This study was released a couple days ago: " The estimated Rt was 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) during the 2-week period before the start of the school closures and 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the first 2 weeks of school closures, corresponding to a 44% (34–53%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3C). Similarly, the Rt calculated from hospitalisation data was 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures and reduced to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures, corresponding to a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3D)." https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30090-6/fulltext There's not a lot of peer review out there right now, on any of the articles. But there are tons of cases, both locally and in many other states, of kids getting the virus and transmitting it among friend groups and to relatives. Expand The school closures coincided with the general social distancing and shutdowns in many places, so I’m not sure that this isn’t just a correlation without a cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 8:12 PM, supernovasky said: I just hate it because I love his teachers. They love him too. I've been paying half price for the distance learning option just because it keeps his teacher employed. Expand Same here, half price and they are also paying the staff the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 8:15 PM, jaydreb said: The school closures coincided with the general social distancing and shutdowns in many places, so I’m not sure that this isn’t just a correlation without a cause. Expand Yes it’s an interesting question. I forget where I saw it but I saw somewhere that they think most of the benefit of school closing comes from the fact it caused the adults to stay home more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 These charts are pretty interesting. I was wondering why they weren’t per capita but it turns out epidemiologists don’t favor that approach. Epidemics don’t necessarily spread faster in larger populations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Does anyone here actually believe the numbers from China? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 That chart doesn't appear to take population size into account. If you compare the US to the EU, it appears we are doing very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:01 PM, PhineasC said: That chart doesn't appear to take population size into account. If you compare the US to the EU, it appears we are doing very well. Expand yeah we're doing great. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 8:45 PM, DCTeacherman said: These charts are pretty interesting. I was wondering why they weren’t per capita but it turns out epidemiologists don’t favor that approach. Epidemics don’t necessarily spread faster in larger populations. Expand Since so many of the US deaths are in our densest city it seems kinda relevant in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:01 PM, PhineasC said: That chart doesn't appear to take population size into account. If you compare the US to the EU, it appears we are doing very well. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:07 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Not as bad by that measuring stick. I have some doubts about the numbers from countries such as Greece. Germany seems to have a great handle on this. I'd like to see EU versus US numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:07 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:12 PM, DCTeacherman said: Expand True, but per capita makes it appear that we're not doing as terribly as we really are in regards to dealing with this virus; ergo, let's use per capita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:16 PM, Inverted_Trough said: True, but per capita makes it appear that we're not doing as terribly as we really are in regards to dealing with this virus; ergo, let's use per capita. Expand What are we supposed to use? We can’t use total deaths, for obvious reasons. And we can’t use per capita either. Just because it makes us look better doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use it. Can we only use things that make us look worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:10 PM, PhineasC said: Not as bad by that measuring stick. I have some doubts about the numbers from countries such as Greece. Germany seems to have a great handle on this. I'd like to see EU versus US numbers. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:18 PM, jaydreb said: What are we supposed to use? We can’t use total deaths, for obvious reasons. And we can’t use per capita either. Just because it makes us look better doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use it. Can we only use things that make us look worse? Expand Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Us unfortunately hitting 40k in fatalities today has me thinking about the flu death comparisons...so, that 40-60k average for the regular flu? It takes a whole season to get to that, right? (Perhaps 6 months?). The fact that we hit 40k in less than two months...wouldn't that kinda make a case for this already being worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:34 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Us unfortunately hitting 40k in fatalities today has me thinking about the flu death comparisons...so, that 40-60k average for the regular flu? It takes a whole season to get to that, right? (Perhaps 6 months?). The fact that we hit 40k in less than two months...wouldn't that kinda make a case for this already being worse? Expand Of course. This is much worse than the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:40 PM, jaydreb said: Of course. This is much worse than the flu. Expand Just had to make sure...seeing as there are still some parroting the "it's just like the flu!" mantra (although hopefully they're in the minority by this point, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:34 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Us unfortunately hitting 40k in fatalities today has me thinking about the flu death comparisons...so, that 40-60k average for the regular flu? It takes a whole season to get to that, right? (Perhaps 6 months?). The fact that we hit 40k in less than two months...wouldn't that kinda make a case for this already being worse? Expand Of course it would. Over 20k has come in just the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 10:03 PM, HighStakes said: Of course it would. Over 20k has come in just the last week. Expand Yeah, it’s amazing how skewed the debate can seem on a forum where a few people are pushing the covid = flu narrative constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 10:07 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, it’s amazing how skewed the debate can seem on a forum where a few people are pushing the covid = flu narrative constantly. Expand No doubt. When the top health officials say highly contagious and Dr. Fauci says this virus is "unprecedented" that is all you need to know. Those were his exact words. There is no way to spin Fauci's words which in any logical human being should end the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 10:14 PM, HighStakes said: No doubt. When the top health officials say highly contagious and Dr. Fauci says this virus is "unprecedented" that is all you need to know. Those were his exact words. There is no way to spin Fauci's words which in any logical human being should end the debate. Expand What bothers me is that some people are trying to discredit him and the other experts as if their opinion doesn't have any weight (and as if they're part of some "mass hysteria conspiracy")...It sews just enough doubt to make ya second-guess things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:19 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Seems like the attacks on our response are overblown. Would expect nothing less, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 10:16 PM, Maestrobjwa said: What bothers me is that some people are trying to discredit him and the other experts as if their opinion doesn't have any weight (and as if they're part of some "mass hysteria conspiracy")...It sews just enough doubt to make ya second-guess things. Expand Learn to read the data and form your own opinions. Everyone here and in the media has massive biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:58 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Just had to make sure...seeing as there are still some parroting the "it's just like the flu!" mantra (although hopefully they're in the minority by this point, lol) Expand Unfortunately the "its only the flu crowd " also has the loudest microphones . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 10:18 PM, Chris78 said: Unfortunately the "its only the flu crowd " also has the loudest microphones . Expand The easiest way you can tell conclusively this is not comparable to the flu is that 0 public health experts or Epidemiologists are making that argument. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/19/2020 at 9:18 PM, jaydreb said: What are we supposed to use? We can’t use total deaths, for obvious reasons. And we can’t use per capita either. Just because it makes us look better doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use it. Can we only use things that make us look worse? Expand Many people are very emotionally invested in the worst case scenario for various reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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