COVID-19 Talk

[WxUSAF]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It was supposedly 80%+ just recently so it sounds like it is dropping, as expected with the weather warming up...

4-1+ is 80%+, Dr. Phin

[CAPE]

Latest IHME model projections have the deaths per day asymptotic to zero by early June. Models are always wrong of course, but if this is reasonably accurate, it seems a stepwise "reopening" could begin around that time. I am not optimistic we will ever have sufficient testing/PPE required to proceed employing the safest, most effective process possible, but my gut says this will go forward regardless.

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There will not be a grand opening. My best "guess" as to how this plays out in general: by June 1, most of the stay at home orders will be lifted, non-essential businesses will be permitted to re-open, with strong recommendations for continuation of social distancing/use of masks. Bars and restaurants, fitness centers/gyms- it will vary from place to place, but they will gradually be opening up through June, likely with some limitations for a period of time. I imagine the NFL will find a way to make the season happen, maybe shortened and with no or a limited amount of fans in attendance.  I have given up on the idea that widespread testing will be available, as this administration shows little interest in committing to make it happen. So we likely get to see how things go in the weeks/months that follow with continued limited testing/contact tracing. Let nature take its course! Hopefully we have some big ass early summer heat wave, and maybe that will help suppress it.

I might be completely wrong on all of this, but given the more optimistic projections and the economic hardship imposed on many, it is difficult to imagine keeping things "locked" down into mid summer.

I think this is probably right more or less. Not sure how this is going to look. Going from straight no contact to hanging in a pool with 100 strangers is quite a leap, so there’s going to be some phase in. I think you could start nonessential businesses and restaurants probably around June 1 and see how it goes.

But yeah, without sufficient testing, opening things 100% during the summer seems primed to make a second wave in fall. 

[40westwx]

 

For a 3-week period in California in 2018, their overall death rate rose by 25%, killing approximately 4,500 people..  At the same time California had a major flu outbreak.   This went on for several weeks after that year.    

How is it that this happened and no one even knew it was going on?  

2016:

 

2018:

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The Maryland positive rate has been fairly stubborn recently.  Will be interesting to see how much it changes if hogan can really expand testing. 

[snowfan]

In MD, I'm guessing many non essential businesses are allowed to open by may 15 while abiding by distancing standards. By then, I see no reason why golf courses couldn't reopen, for example. At this point, is there really a difference between Lowes being open and people going there to buy stuff for house projects vs Dicks sporting goods opening and people going there to buy bikes, workout gear, etc?? Not really.

Come june 1, I imagine daycare facilities, movie theaters, etc will be allowed to open while practicing distancing.

During each phase we continue to wear masks.

Pools reopening seems complicated, but make no doubt, people will go if they do open. Sporting events, concerts, etc are the tricky ones. Like I mentioned a few days ago, how do schools like penn state, ohio state, michigan, alabama, etc host games in the fall w 100,000+ fans in the stands elbow to elbow?

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

The Maryland positive rate has been fairly stubborn recently.  Will be interesting to see how much it changes if hogan can really expand testing. 

Who is being tested by and large?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

In MD, I'm guessing many non essential businesses are allowed to open by may 15 while abiding by distancing standards. By then, I see no reason why golf courses couldn't reopen, for example. At this point, is there really a difference between Lowes being open and people going there to buy stuff for house projects vs Dicks sporting goods opening and people going there to buy bikes, workout gear, etc?? Not really.

Come june 1, I imagine daycare facilities, movie theaters, etc will be allowed to open while practicing distancing.

During each phase we continue to wear masks.

Pools reopening seems complicated, but make no doubt, people will go if they do open. Sporting events, concerts, etc are the tricky ones. Like I mentioned a few days ago, how do schools like penn state, ohio state, michigan, alabama, etc host games in the fall w 100,000+ fans in the stands elbow to elbow?

This sounds about right to me.  The other question that will be interesting is will the school day look the same when schools open back up. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is pretty interesting 

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

In MD, I'm guessing many non essential businesses are allowed to open by may 15 while abiding by distancing standards. By then, I see no reason why golf courses couldn't reopen, for example. At this point, is there really a difference between Lowes being open and people going there to buy stuff for house projects vs Dicks sporting goods opening and people going there to buy bikes, workout gear, etc?? Not really.

Come june 1, I imagine daycare facilities, movie theaters, etc will be allowed to open while practicing distancing.

During each phase we continue to wear masks.

Pools reopening seems complicated, but make no doubt, people will go if they do open. Sporting events, concerts, etc are the tricky ones. Like I mentioned a few days ago, how do schools like penn state, ohio state, michigan, alabama, etc host games in the fall w 100,000+ fans in the stands elbow to elbow?

Hopefully they open the horseshoe casino May 15th

[mappy]

+522 cases, +23 deaths

[ErinInTheSky]

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

In MD, I'm guessing many non essential businesses are allowed to open by may 15 while abiding by distancing standards. By then, I see no reason why golf courses couldn't reopen, for example. At this point, is there really a difference between Lowes being open and people going there to buy stuff for house projects vs Dicks sporting goods opening and people going there to buy bikes, workout gear, etc?? Not really.

Come june 1, I imagine daycare facilities, movie theaters, etc will be allowed to open while practicing distancing.

During each phase we continue to wear masks.

Pools reopening seems complicated, but make no doubt, people will go if they do open. Sporting events, concerts, etc are the tricky ones. Like I mentioned a few days ago, how do schools like penn state, ohio state, michigan, alabama, etc host games in the fall w 100,000+ fans in the stands elbow to elbow?

How on earth do you maintain social distancing in a daycare?

[SnowGolfBro]

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

In MD, I'm guessing many non essential businesses are allowed to open by may 15 while abiding by distancing standards. By then, I see no reason why golf courses couldn't reopen, for example. At this point, is there really a difference between Lowes being open and people going there to buy stuff for house projects vs Dicks sporting goods opening and people going there to buy bikes, workout gear, etc?? Not really.

Come june 1, I imagine daycare facilities, movie theaters, etc will be allowed to open while practicing distancing.

During each phase we continue to wear masks.

Pools reopening seems complicated, but make no doubt, people will go if they do open. Sporting events, concerts, etc are the tricky ones. Like I mentioned a few days ago, how do schools like penn state, ohio state, michigan, alabama, etc host games in the fall w 100,000+ fans in the stands elbow to elbow?

I never understood the closing of golf courses.  And if it wasn’t for outside pressure i think the PGA tour could be playing events with no fans right now.  If anybody knows die hard golfers, we would happily risk a life threatening virus to play golf lol.

[ErinInTheSky]

Interesting News: Singapore, which has been on top of things for a long time (and which I have used personally as an example of successfully controlling the disease spread without quarantines) is now seeing skyrocketing cases.

High temps in Singapore are currently 93 degrees btw, for those hoping for warm weather controlling it.

 

[ErinInTheSky]

3 people in my church are in the hospital for covid. All 60-70. Not nursing home people. Older but definitely not “waiting to die.” Please pray if you do for them. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, supernovasky said:

3 people in my church are in the hospital for covid. All 60-70. Not nursing home people. Older but definitely not “waiting to die.” Please pray if you do for them. 

Terrible news.  Sending my thoughts their way.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Terrible news.  Sending my thoughts their way.  

I’m hopeful. None are on ventilators as far as I know thank god.

[ErinInTheSky]

One was actually my sponsor/inquirer to be a deacon. These are people I am close to. :-/

[SnowGolfBro]

1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

Interesting News: Singapore, which has been on top of things for a long time (and which I have used personally as an example of successfully controlling the disease spread without quarantines) is now seeing skyrocketing cases.

High temps in Singapore are currently 93 degrees btw, for those hoping for warm weather controlling it.

 

Still hoping for warm weather helping.  Warm weather won’t stop the spread altogether.  But more time outside of enclosed spaces and more vitamin D will help strengthen immune systems at the very least.

[SnowGolfBro]

42 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

One was actually my sponsor/inquirer to be a deacon. These are people I am close to. :-/

I will pray for them too

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Still hoping for warm weather helping.  Warm weather won’t stop the spread altogether.  But more time outside of enclosed spaces and more vitamin D will help strengthen immune systems at the very least.

I've been taking lots of Vit D. I have supplements because honestly, I've had a deficiency even before COVID. This area has far less sunlight than Louisiana where I moved from lol.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I will pray for them too

Thanks. I had no idea until our morning service. We've had a couple more that have gone in and come out recovered so we're all hopeful.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Clouds from nor’easters that miss to the north and south, clouds that disrupt severe weather events, and clouds that somehow overspread the region during summer days but somehow fail to stop a 98/74 HI 145 afternoon.  

Great location.

I about did a double take when my doctor tested me and told me my vit D levels were almost undetectable. I NEVER had issues in Louisiana, so much sunlight and being outside.

 

If I weren't taking my vitamin D right now who knows where I'd be. Mid Atlantic Winter/Early Spring + Covid? aHHHH

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Still hoping for warm weather helping.  Warm weather won’t stop the spread altogether.  But more time outside of enclosed spaces and more vitamin D will help strengthen immune systems at the very least.

I supplement with D3 year round. Most people don't get enough, and being out in the sun has its own risks.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I supplement with D3 year round. Most people don't get enough, and being out in the sun has its own risks.

D 3 very important!

 

[snowfan]

4 hours ago, supernovasky said:

How on earth do you maintain social distancing in a daycare?

Some remain open now for folks that are essential. If the workforce is going to be out there, we will need daycares open. Employers are only going to be understanding to a certain extent.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, snowfan said:

Some remain open now for folks that are essential. If the workforce is going to be out there, we will need daycares open. Employers are only going to be understanding to a certain extent.

I think daycares will struggle to open with people not willing to send their kids back TBH. I'm not sending mine back anytime soon. Not all employers will go back to work in person and so many people will probably keep their kids at home.

It would be weird to open daycares though, they were huge sources of spread pre-shutdown, same with schools.

[PhineasC]

42 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think daycares will struggle to open with people not willing to send their kids back TBH. I'm not sending mine back anytime soon. Not all employers will go back to work in person and so many people will probably keep their kids at home.

It would be weird to open daycares though, they were huge sources of spread pre-shutdown, same with schools.

Where did you hear that? I have seen some reports that kids are not big spreaders of this, like they are with flu and cold. Some European nations are even reopening schools because of this.

[ErinInTheSky]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Where did you hear that? I have seen some reports that kids are not big spreaders of this, like they are with flu and cold. Some European nations are even reopening schools because of this.

This study was released a couple days ago:

 

" The estimated R_t was 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) during the 2-week period before the start of the school closures and 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the first 2 weeks of school closures, corresponding to a 44% (34–53%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3C). Similarly, the R_t calculated from hospitalisation data was 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures and reduced to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures, corresponding to a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3D)."

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30090-6/fulltext

 

There's not a lot of peer review out there right now, on any of the articles. But there are tons of cases, both locally and in many other states, of kids getting the virus and transmitting it among friend groups and to relatives.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This study was released a couple days ago:

 

" The estimated R_t was 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) during the 2-week period before the start of the school closures and 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the first 2 weeks of school closures, corresponding to a 44% (34–53%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3C). Similarly, the R_t calculated from hospitalisation data was 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures and reduced to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures, corresponding to a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility (figure 3D)."

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30090-6/fulltext

 

There's not a lot of peer review out there right now, on any of the articles. But there are tons of cases, both locally and in many other states, of kids getting the virus and transmitting it among friend groups and to relatives.

OK, hadn't seen that. I think schools should stay closed but daycares are a tough call.