COVID-19 Talk

[Yeoman]

 

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too.  

Indeed! With everyone out driving around everywhere it's really paying dividends.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

 

Indeed! With everyone out driving around everywhere it's really paying dividends.

I haven't pumped gas in at least 40 days.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't pumped gas in at least 40 days.

Full serve gas stations are few and far between these days.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I dont understand the Jaws reference.. going for a Jog down in Canton.. some nice site seeing .. I will check back in later!

 

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

There are countries out there with no national lockdowns in place. Social distancing guidelines are very different from a government mandated lockdown where you can be arrested for partaking in certain activities. This question may never be adequately answered, but I think the models showing hospitals being overwhelmed made the following mistakes:

1) Took the outlier Italy CFR numbers too literally.

2) failed to factor in the huge drop in people going to the hospital and doctors for other reasons

3) greatly overestimated ventilator need

4) didn’t properly account for self-selection bias and massive undercounting of total infected when looking at daily hospitalization rates 

I feel like the hospital narrative has been quietly going away as we have learned more about these four things. 

#2 is a massive part of this.  The mostly unknowable question is whether the government response played a role.  In other words, if business was allowed to go on as usual with minor restrictions, would we have seen:  1) more COVID cases, 2) more hospitalizations due to “life events” (eg. car crashes), 3) fewer cancellations of regular procedures, and 4) more people using ERs and hospitals for regular medical occurrences.  And therefore, stressed hospital systems.

[PhineasC]

 

16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

#2 is a massive part of this.  The mostly unknowable question is whether the government response played a role.  In other words, if business was allowed to go on as usual with minor restrictions, would we have seen:  1) more COVID cases, 2) more hospitalizations due to “life events” (eg. car crashes), 3) fewer cancellations of regular procedures, and 4) more people using ERs and hospitals for regular medical occurrences.  And therefore, stressed hospital systems.

I think it is telling that ER admits for things like stroke and heart failure are way down. These ailments did not suddenly go away. There is a very strong fear response keeping people away from the ER that makes hospital overrun less likely. Was this generated by the government or the media is the question.

Either way, people need to stop looking at Lombardy. Turns out they have this crisis every year around this time due to flu we just never paid attention to it before. The flu death numbers in Lombardy are crazy high every year for their population size.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is covid related so I’m going to post this here

There’s no live sports so there are a bunch of reruns on. NBC has the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers were in the finals in 2014? 

Selfishly, no live sports sucks. NBA playoffs are always great. 

Regular season is unwatchable, but yes the playoffs and esp the finals are entertaining.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is covid related so I’m going to post this here

There’s no live sports so there are a bunch of reruns on. NBC has the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers were in the finals in 2014? 

Selfishly, no live sports sucks. NBA playoffs are always great. 

Yes I believe they lost to the kings in a series that was closer than the final tally suggested. 

[ErinInTheSky]

 

[MN Transplant]

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

I think it is telling that ER admits for things like stroke and heart failure are way down. These ailments did not suddenly go away. There is a very strong fear response keeping people away from the ER that makes hospital overrun less likely. Was this generated by the government or the media is the question.

Either way, people need to stop looking at Lombardy. Turns out they have this crisis every year around this time due to flu we just never paid attention to it before. The flu death numbers in Lombardy are crazy high every year for their population size.

Are you attributing the drop in admits for heart attacks and strokes to people not getting treatment or to the change in lifestyle because of the closure?  

[CAPE]

 Protester from CA. Whats wrong with this picture?

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Are you attributing the drop in admits for heart attacks and strokes to people not getting treatment or to the change in lifestyle because of the closure?  

Hard to believe someone with chest pains, esp if they have a known underlying heart condition, would just ignore it because of COVID. Self preservation is a thing.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hard to believe someone with chest pains, esp if they have a known underlying heart condition, would just ignore it because of COVID. Self preservation is a thing.

You must not know many old timers. They usually don't want to go to the hospital in the best of times. They have to be dragged kicking and screaming sometimes.

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Are you attributing the drop in admits for heart attacks and strokes to people not getting treatment or to the change in lifestyle because of the closure?  

Not getting treatment. If anything, the last 45 days have been more stressful for those over 65 than less. I get the argument we are more sedentary, but this unprecedented global lockdown has to be causing more stress and anxiety that outweighs that.

[CAPE]

Just now, PhineasC said:

You must not know many old timers. They usually don't want to go to the hospital in the best of times. They have to be dragged kicking and screaming sometimes.

Ok. Point taken. Not sure that is something that would overwhelm the data though. Plenty of "younger" people are at risk due to lifestyle and/or heredity, and not sure this applies in many of those cases.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ok. Point taken. Not sure that is something that would overwhelm the data though. Plenty of "younger" people are at risk due to lifestyle and/or heredity, and not sure this applies in many of those cases.

But for COVID it has outsized importance. COVID targets those 70+ with underlying diseases and would cause great fear of catching the disease in that cohort (for good reason). This group is also much more likely to need to go to the hospital for heart attacks and strokes. I can definitely see there could be an effect here. Sure, there is always the 40 year old lean marathoner who drops dead from a heart attack while sipping his morning coffee one Sunday. But that's an outlier.

[PhineasC]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

And no age is immuned to the massive emotional and psychological stress this whole ordeal is going to instill in millions . Then you throw in lost Jobs, delayed unemployment checks and a 100 other things and the endless dominoes of "collateral damage " really starts becoming evident .

Many people are going to die in the coming years due to the economic toll of the shutdowns. Many others will drop into poverty and food scarcity situations.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just a little historical perspective...

[PhineasC]

Yes, no parades, concerts, packed movie theaters, etc.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

But for COVID it has outsized importance. COVID targets those 70+ with underlying diseases and would cause great fear of catching the disease in that cohort (for good reason). This group is also much more likely to need to go to the hospital for heart attacks and strokes. I can definitely see there could be an effect here. Sure, there is always the 40 year old lean marathoner who drops dead from a heart attack while sipping his morning coffee one Sunday. But that's an outlier.

Not arguing your general point, but you tend to go binary when it's convenient. COVID can also be very problematic for a significant group of people in their 50s and 60s. There are plenty of middle aged people in this country who don't eat well/ are overweight/ have bad genes, that predispose them to (known) cardiovascular issues, and for whom the fear of catching COVID will not overwhelm their basic desire to stay alive.

[WxUSAF]

Saw an article today (NYTimes I think) saying the second leading indicator for COVID vulnerability after age is obesity. Lots of obese people in this country of all ages.

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw an article today (NYTimes I think) saying the second leading indicator for COVID vulnerability after age is obesity. Lots of obese people in this country of all ages.

The definition of obese is a bit crazy though. I’m 5’8, 205....I wouldn’t consider myself all that fat, but under the definition, I’m obese

[PhineasC]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw an article today (NYTimes I think) saying the second leading indicator for COVID vulnerability after age is obesity. Lots of obese people in this country of all ages.

It has moved into a higher spot after hitting the US. But there is still an overwhelming signal for age. 300 lbs and 75 is still way deadlier than 300 lbs and 25.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

The definition of obese is a bit crazy though. I’m 5’8, 205....I wouldn’t consider myself all that fat, but under the definition, I’m obese

From what I saw, the problems with COVID really explode at BMIs 40+.

I think some people need to see deaths for certain groups at zero for them to agree the risk is low. There will always be healthy people who die suddenly from diseases with seemingly no explanation. If you are between 0-20 years of age, the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 is vanishingly low. I'm sure someone will now find a story of a healthy 18 year old dying from the disease.

[Baltimorewx]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

From what I saw, the problems with COVID really explode at BMIs 40+.

I think some people need to see deaths for certain groups at zero for them to agree the risk is low. There will always be healthy people who die suddenly from diseases with seemingly no explanation. If you are between 0-20 years of age, the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 is vanishingly low. I'm sure someone will now find a story of a healthy 18 year old dying from the disease.

Thanks. I just think the guidelines on obesity are a bit extreme. 

[SnowGolfBro]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw an article today (NYTimes I think) saying the second leading indicator for COVID vulnerability after age is obesity. Lots of obese people in this country of all ages.

Even those of us that support a quicker return to normal life are not suggesting that people that are particularly vulnerable should just throw caution to the wind.  If u are elderly with a comorbidity or extremely over weight then you need to make the decision to self quarantine until you feel safe.  And we should come together as a society to assist those people wherever possible.  For example, if the Wizards or Caps had games coming up with fans i would go and feel comfortable.  But i can see why those at risk would avoid those situations.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

51 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Many people are going to die in the coming years due to the economic toll of the shutdowns. Many others will drop into poverty and food scarcity situations.

But what if those that die of these downstream affects also overwhelmingly have preexisting conditions?  Will you be as dismissive of their deaths and their families suffering or is that only reserved for covid?

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

But what if those that die of these downstream affects also overwhelmingly have preexisting conditions?  Will you be as dismissive of their deaths and their families suffering or is that only reserved for covid?

I don’t get hung up on individual stories when looking at these stats. It’s not relevant. 

[Inverted_Trough]

56 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Many people are going to die in the coming years due to the economic toll of the shutdowns. Many others will drop into poverty and food scarcity situations.

Some serious doom porn fans in the weather community. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I don’t get hung up on individual stories when looking at these stats. It’s not relevant. 

So let’s make the assumption that those who are poor, elderly, and have preexisting conditions are the least able to absorb the downstream economic consequences of this and remain healthy.  That’s a similar demographic dying disproportionately from covid.  Why do you care less about the Covid victims and more about these downstream victims?