wxdude64 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said: I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too. Filled up at 1.24 yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: If I go into the hospital with COVID and chest pains and die, did I die of a heart attack or "COVID-19 complications"? It's a real dilemma for health stats. I also wonder if people are able to understand that a lot of people dying from or with COVID 19 would have been like like to die from some other cause that is accepted as okay. For example, an 80 year old in a nursing home died from Covid 19. But they had preexisting conditions that would have caught up with them sooner than later. It’s these difficult and sad thought exercises that also skew the death numbers IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Here is an example (excuse the simplistic crude numbers) Daily deaths 100 120 130 140 145 147 Rate of change in daily deaths 20 10 10 5 2 Rate of change of the rate of change 10 0 -5 -3 Yes, total deaths are still climbing, but the overall rate is headed downwards. When you are dealing with big numbers this view helps understand the overall trend. If you take an extra 20 older deaths and toss them into the 147 figure, it screws up this analysis completely and makes it appear the death rate is skyrocketing again (now you are plus 17 that last day). Hope this helps some understand my point. I have seen Cuomo make this error on live TV several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too. The clean air and deep blue skies... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: NJ and NY deaths down around a hundred each from yesterday, hopefully the trend continues and that truly means we’re over the hump in nyc metro in terms of death. Hopefully its not the usual weekend lag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I also wonder if people are able to understand that a lot of people dying from or with COVID 19 would have been like like to die from some other cause that is accepted as okay. For example, an 80 year old in a nursing home died from Covid 19. But they had preexisting conditions that would have caught up with them sooner than later. It’s these difficult and sad thought exercises that also skew the death numbers IMO. Every time I see a big Nursing Home outbreak and resulting deaths.. I go to there website.. every time.. the first thing that is advertised on their homepage is hospice care... it never fails Thing about that for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: its not a dilemma.. they know the primary cause.. my grandmother died of congestive heart failure last year.. I am sure she had the flu, pneumonia and whatever invaded during the hospice phase. It is just the way it works. It's actually not that easy, especially because Covid can attack many different tissues and organs causing severe reactions and deaths that are easily attributesd to other causes. Here is a article from science that details what doctors are seeing with Covid patients and how they are trying to better understand how the virus attacks the body: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Ben Gardner was an old man. Should he have died? Think about that for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: Every time I see a big Nursing Home outbreak and resulting deaths.. I go to there website.. every time.. the first thing that is advertised on their homepage is hospice care... it never fails Thing about that for a minute. If you dig into excess mortality analyses you very clearly find that COVID basically takes someone that had a very high risk of dying within 6 months and just kills them right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: If you dig into excess mortality analyses you very clearly find that COVID basically takes someone that had a very high risk of dying within 6 months and just kills them right away. Exactly! Like the first naked chick you see in a horror movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully its not the usual weekend lag Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened Yeah. I legitimately thought the week before was going to be the worse and we'd start seeing everything come down but... yeah unfortunately not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened Does the notion that the states could be very bad at accurately tallying these numbers play into this at all? There are numerous ways these numbers could be pretty inaccurate. The weekend thing is evidence of that. COVID doesn't kill less often on Saturdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Here is an example (excuse the simplistic crude numbers) Daily deaths 100 120 130 140 145 147 Rate of change in daily deaths 20 10 10 5 2 Rate of change of the rate of change 10 0 -5 -3 Yes, total deaths are still climbing, but the overall rate is headed downwards. When you are dealing with big numbers this view helps understand the overall trend. If you take an extra 20 older deaths and toss them into the 147 figure, it screws up this analysis completely and makes it appear the death rate is skyrocketing again (now you are plus 17 that last day). Hope this helps some understand my point. I have seen Cuomo make this error on live TV several times. he also said that a person went to bartmiztva didnt know he was sick.. wound up infecting 120 other people and many of them died. #contacttracing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Ohio just had their one day largest increase in case counts. It's going to get really interesting there come May 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 CNN reported that a contamination took place in CDC in February that affected the test kits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part. I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them. And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids. Is that a selfish view. Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness. The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part. I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them. And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids. Is that a selfish view. Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness. The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old. My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Ben Gardner was an old man. Should he have died? Think about that for a minute. If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Exactly! Like the first naked chick you see in a horror movie. Or when you off to help two kids trying to sail a boat in the lagoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old. My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha. I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time. But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life. I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread. And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1. But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time. But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life. I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread. And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1. But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore. It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: I’m not sure why people are losing their minds over this pic. It seems from afar that most people are in small groups with distance in between. As long as they don’t let it get too packed it’s probably a good idea to have some beaches open so people don’t congregate in confined spaces indoors. I dont understand the no chair rule.. if people were sitting it would be easier to maintain 6 feet. When you are moving around accidents happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me. Thats great to hear. I am still hopeful of a faster turnaround come mid May. I really think warmer weather will be a huge factor. But waiting around to test that theory stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, H2O said: If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition? To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now. This guy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Ohio just had their one day largest increase in case counts. It's going to get really interesting there come May 1. Probably more testing or adding older deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition? To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now. This guy... What bothered me is that I just don’t have enough scars to be in a scar off contest. I have 3 and one was self inflicted. Cone of shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 I dont understand the Jaws reference.. going for a Jog down in Canton.. some nice site seeing .. I will check back in later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, H2O said: What bothered me is that I just don’t have enough scars to be in a scar off contest. I have 3 and one was self inflicted. Cone of shame. I don’t even have the weak appendicitis scar, but I’ll drink to your non scar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time. But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life. I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread. And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1. But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore. To be fair, it is June 10th OR when canceled if you look at the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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