COVID-19 Talk

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

No trump talk

If only you had been on the beach that early July day. Pippet and Alex Kitner may still be alive.

[mappy]

Christ. What a mess to clean up. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

 

I’m not sure why people are losing their minds over this pic.  It seems from afar that most people are in small groups with distance in between.  As long as they don’t let it get too packed it’s probably a good idea to have some beaches open so people don’t congregate in confined spaces indoors.  

[ErinInTheSky]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

 

I’m not sure why people are losing their minds over this pic.  It seems from afar that most people are in small groups with distance in between.  As long as they don’t let it get too packed it’s probably a good idea to have some beaches open so people don’t congregate in confined spaces indoors.  

The likelihood is, multiple of them are passing back and forth by each other throughout the day.

In the whole "isolate and contact trace" model that Fauci and others have said is important for reoppening... this basically makes that pointless.

 

Good luck contact tracing THAT.

[ErinInTheSky]

In fact if you look closely there are even people playing beach volleyball lol.

[PhineasC]

The death stats from the states are becoming even more worthless as they go back and do forensics in places like nursing homes. They are finding deaths from weeks ago, saying they are "probable COVID" without a test, and then adding them to the total from today. That completely muddles any attempt to watch trends in death stats. So, if you are still doing that, you should stop if you want to have any view of reality.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The death stats from the states are becoming even more worthless as they go back and do forensics in places like nursing homes. They are finding deaths from weeks ago, saying they are "probable COVID" without a test, and then adding them to the total from today. That completely muddles any attempt to watch trends in death stats. So, if you are still doing that, you should stop if you want to have any view of reality.

So now deaths are meaningless lol.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So now deaths are meaningless lol.

I used the term "death stats" for a reason. You are free and clear to continue melting down over every daily update even if the numbers are totally gummed up now. Maybe stay home instead of heading out for booze, however...

[40westwx]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The death stats from the states are becoming even more worthless as they go back and do forensics in places like nursing homes. They are finding deaths from weeks ago, saying they are "probable COVID" without a test, and then adding them to the total from today. That completely muddles any attempt to watch trends in death stats. So, if you are still doing that, you should stop if you want to have any view of reality.

I worry that they are being double counted in some cases.

[PhineasC]

European schools looking to reopen soon as it becomes clearer kids have low viral loads and are not "super-spreaders." They are also almost functionally immune to serious infections with this disease, the opposite of the flu. Still think the timing is such that we stay closed here.

[SnowtoRain]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The death stats from the states are becoming even more worthless as they go back and do forensics in places like nursing homes. They are finding deaths from weeks ago, saying they are "probable COVID" without a test, and then adding them to the total from today. That completely muddles any attempt to watch trends in death stats. So, if you are still doing that, you should stop if you want to have any view of reality.

I think your word usage in your first sentence might be imprecise.  What I think you were trying to relay with those words were,  "Death stats from states need to be interpreted correctly to understand the current trends due to additional previously unrecorded deaths being added to daily counts rather than the day in which the death occurred."

This does not make the count more worthless because in the general scheme it provide a better understanding of overall impacts.  There just needs to be correct interpretation, which I am sure is accounted for when each state is tracking day to day deaths.

[Inverted_Trough]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

This is already an unprecedented national tragedy in terms of the lockdown (not even close in terms of deaths from the virus).

But the stock market has been up 25% since the lockdown.  #401k

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40westwx said:

I worry that they are being double counted in some cases.

There are some very odd things happening in NYC ERs with classification of patients. It looks like they are over-counting COVID hospitalizations. Basically, out of an abundance of caution or simply ease of processing, they assume most people who show up to the ER have COVID no matter what. Then maybe they fix the numbers if there is a test done and it comes back negative. The hospitalization numbers Cuomo had were always really suspect.

Oh, and if you look at the stats in a vacuum, COVID-19 apparently is a cure for heart attack and stroke! Those numbers are way down.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

But the stock market has been up 25% since the lockdown.  #401k

The focus people have on the stock market itself or mocking those who care about the stock market has caused them to ignore the millions of average Americans who will end up far poorer and vulnerable due to this lockdown. But yeah, 401k and all that.

[mappy]

If you need to get your political itch there are other avenues for that. It is not here. The topic can be discussed without the need to get into the political weeds. 

and y’all have GOT to figure out a better way to interact with Phineas. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, jhotdog said:

Gotta love having moderators that are Democrats. I asked a couple questions regarding what officials didn’t act fast enough and it gets deleted. Lol

Our political affiliation has no bearing on our moderating. I did a clean sweep of anything Trump MAGA protests etc related. If your post got caught up, I apologize. I’ll go back and look.

If it was post where you went on about Trump and Biden and WHO, it was correctly hidden. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, mappy said:

If you need to get your political itch there are other avenues for that. It is not here. The topic can be discussed without the need to get into the political weeds. 

and y’all have GOT to figure out a better way to interact with Phineas. 

It's pretty clear Phineas is baiting people left and right, he got me but I'm not invested in interacting with him much anymore. My "better way" has been to simply not engage deeply.

 

But if a large amount of people are having trouble with a single person, maybe it's not us that are the problem...

[Inverted_Trough]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The focus people have on the stock market itself or mocking those who care about the stock market has caused them to ignore the millions of average Americans who will end up far poorer and vulnerable due to this lockdown. But yeah, 401k and all that.

Well, some millennials may also be able to finally afford a house, because of the negligible interest rates and the housing market crash.  It’s not all doom and gloom porn.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I think your word usage in your first sentence might be imprecise.  What I think you were trying to relay with those words were,  "Death stats from states need to be interpreted correctly to understand the current trends due to additional previously unrecorded deaths being added to daily counts rather than the day in which the death occurred."

This does not make the count more worthless because in the general scheme it provide a better understanding of overall impacts.  There just needs to be correct interpretation, which I am sure is accounted for when each state is tracking day to day deaths.

If they take deaths from the beginning of April and add them to the count from today, how is that a "correct interpretation" or "properly accounted for"? It makes it impossible to accurately determine the rate of change of the rate of change which is basically the only value from death counts, if there is one.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

It's pretty clear Phineas is baiting people left and right, he got me but I'm not invested in interacting with him much anymore. My "better way" has been to simply not engage deeply.

 

But if a large amount of people are having trouble with a single person, maybe it's not us that are the problem...

Some people can't handle having their prevailing narrative challenged even a little. It shows me you don't really have much faith in your own stance on this, so you'd rather just run away.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

It's pretty clear Phineas is baiting people left and right, he got me but I'm not invested in interacting with him much anymore. My "better way" has been to simply not engage deeply.

 

But if a large amount of people are having trouble with a single person, maybe it's not us that are the problem...

I gave y'all the "hint" yesterday. He has his shtick, so either engage or don't.

[40westwx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There are some very odd things happening in NYC ERs with classification of patients. It looks like they are over-counting COVID hospitalizations. Basically, out of an abundance of caution or simply ease of processing, they assume most people who show up to the ER have COVID no matter what. Then maybe they fix the numbers if there is a test done and it comes back negative. The hospitalization numbers Cuomo had were always really suspect.

Oh, and if you look at the stats in a vacuum, COVID-19 apparently is a cure for heart attack and stroke! Those numbers are way down.

Yeah I agree.. my comment about them being double counted is this: 

I could see a possible scenario where someone dies of Pneumonia and their death is reported by the hospital as probable covid 19.. on that day a sample is taken and 2 weeks later it comes back positive... and someone else reports it as covid19.. and it is counted again.. and then finally the  the death certificate is certified and in an effort to find more deaths.. another reporting agency combs though the death certificates and finds the same death.  It is again reported.  

[mappy]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Some people can't handle having their prevailing narrative challenged even a little. It shows me you don't really have much faith in your own stance on this, so you'd rather just run away.

Look this thread for the most part has had little conflict minus one or two dust ups since it opened. But since you started posting there have been more reports and hidden posts than any active thread going on in total (a guess but it’s a lot)

you are not an easy person to debate with and you know it. You could do your part in not stoking fires when you see them at an ember just as others need to learn how to reply to you. It goes both ways

[PhineasC]

If I go into the hospital with COVID and chest pains and die, did I die of a heart attack or "COVID-19 complications"? It's a real dilemma for health stats.

[40westwx]

The way to avoid that would be for JHU to use the Social Security number as the primary key in their data set.. or maybe a combination of birthdate, first, last name and zipcode.  They may have that already.. but when i was looking at their github.. it seems that they were only counting total number of deaths reported each day.. I could be wrong.. feel free to correct me if so

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's pretty clear Phineas is baiting people left and right, he got me but I'm not invested in interacting with him much anymore. My "better way" has been to simply not engage deeply.

 

But if a large amount of people are having trouble with a single person, maybe it's not us that are the problem...

Cape and I keep telling you guys, if you can’t engage with him without it going off the rails, regardless of who is at fault, then stop engaging. That means all engagement. Not side comments you know he will see and comment on. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If I go into the hospital with COVID and chest pains and die, did I die of a heart attack or "COVID-19 complications"? It's a real dilemma for health stats.

The flu has the same problem. You can’t have it both ways.
 

That’s why I’ll never put on a life jacket again.

[Inverted_Trough]

I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too.  

[40westwx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If I go into the hospital with COVID and chest pains and die, did I die of a heart attack or "COVID-19 complications"? It's a real dilemma for health stats.

its not a dilemma.. they know the primary cause.. my grandmother died of congestive heart failure last year.. I am sure she had the flu, pneumonia and whatever invaded during the hospice phase.  It is just the way it works.   

[SnowtoRain]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

If they take deaths from the beginning of April and add them to the count from today, how is that a "correct interpretation" or "properly accounted for"? It makes it impossible to accurately determine the rate of change of the rate of change which is basically the only value from death counts, if there is one.

I might not have been clear, there are probably (hopefully) official daily tally of deaths for each state that they are certain are from that day, which are used for understanding trends and making decisions.  The dump of additional deaths is most likely for accounting purposes not to be used to understand trends but track overall impacts.  The tracking websites should differentiate these counts, but have not, thus outside interpretation by a lay audience of these raw numbers would of course be meaningless.  I am fairly certain on the daily updates from various states they have made clear of daily deaths vs deaths accounted for that occurred previously without a known date.