COVID-19 Talk

[PhineasC]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you’re being generous. Everyone is anxious to go out and get “back” to work, but not at the expense of a grandparent, parent, or immediate family member. The people protesting and ready to go now everyone else be damned are a loud minority IMO.

You will literally not be able to remove that risk to grandma until there is a good vaccine. 18 months away, most likely. I think this reality is becoming apparent for people hence the current reaction to just say “screw it I’m going out.”

[nw baltimore wx]

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you’re being generous. Everyone is anxious to go out and get “back” to work, but not at the expense of a grandparent, parent, or immediate family member. The people protesting and ready to go now everyone else be damned are a loud minority IMO.

I think and hope you’re right. But as Phin implied, there is another group that’s waiting for others to lead the way. Unfortunately, the lag from when the minority might go out to when they would be sick could lead to false hope for the lemmings.

I mean, although Larry’s friend was the first into the water after they reopened the beaches, he wasn’t hurt, other than being roughed up on the frantic exit from the ocean. The real loss was Pippet.

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Someone on fb tried to say this wasn't an actual pandemic based on this...thoughts?

(For context, I had said she should be careful before comparing the virus to just your run-of-the-mill seasonal germs and such)

 

That person doesn’t know the definition of pandemic. 

[Wonderdog]

40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 People are outdoors and if they are staying in groups of a few and moving along it would seem to be low risk. Problem is where it goes from there. People tend to get 'too comfortable' at some point. Adequate enforcement is key.

Agreed. Especially your last sentence!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Agreed. Especially your last sentence!

I also agree.  I think it won’t be feasible to shut down beaches entirely this summer.  If you keep them at a reasonable capacity so people can have a little space between groups it seems like beach’s should be ok to open. 

[PhineasC]

If you were someone who fully bought in to the lockdowns, followed all the rules, and think it should continue as long as needed at the cost of your job, relationships, savings account, retirement account, business etc... I could see reasons for you to be very defensive and angry seeing people not following your lead but not dying from this, either. I can also see why stories of hospitals being under capacity would cause rage. It’s basically a betrayal of the main reason you destroyed your own life to fight this virus. Must be a shitty feeling. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If you were someone who fully bought in to the lockdowns, followed all the rules, and think it should continue as long as needed at the cost of your job, relationships, savings account, retirement account, business etc... I could see reasons for you to be very defensive and angry seeing people not following your lead but not dying from this, either. I can also see why stories of hospitals being under capacity would cause rage. It’s basically a betrayal of the main reason you destroyed your own life to fight this virus. Must be a shitty feeling. 

As usual, straw man.  No one is advocating for even of a modicum of this.  

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Agreed. Especially your last sentence!

A lot of the stay at home orders expire May 15, I believe. If the latest projections are correct, it would make sense to begin to relax things (outside of known hot spots) at that point. The biggest issue will be getting people back to work in cases where they are required to be in close proximity, and/or depend on public transportation. If the current lack of available and efficient testing/appropriate PPE is somehow resolved, then it should be possible to execute a 'reopening' in stages. Remains to be seen ofc.

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

As usual, straw man.  No one is advocating for even of a modicum of this.  

The exit scenarios I see you putting on the lockdowns are months away, at best. 

[Yeoman]

I looked at the protestors. They don’t look like “MAGA people” to me but I guess it’s possible? Seems like a stretch dude. I’m not allowed to look outside my bubble right now by state order.

You really should look… you’ll also see Depression-era unemployment, thousands of failed businesses and 6 mile long food bank car lines full of kids headed to poverty which will give you the full picture.. but hey, think of the greater good. Compromise has no place here.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Yeoman said:

You really should look… you’ll also see Depression-era unemployment, thousands of failed businesses and 6 mile long food bank car lines full of kids headed to poverty which will give you the full picture.. but hey, think of the greater good. Compromise has no place here.

It’s important to give 80 year obese people with heart and kidney failure in nursing homes a chance at 3 more months of terrible life in exchange for 40% unemployment for 20-30 year olds and widespread hunger. Plus, the second wave! Don’t forget that new MacGuffin.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The exit scenarios I see you putting on the lockdowns are months away, at best. 

I think states largely are going to start opening up in some form another by mid to late may/early June no matter what.  Some red states obviously may be even sooner.  I just want it to be done intelligently so we can avoid being back at square one.  I don’t think more than another month of lockdown is possible really. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think states largely are going to start opening up in some form another by mid to late may/early June no matter what.  Some red states obviously may be even sooner.  I just want it to be done intelligently so we can avoid being back at square one.  I don’t think more than another month of lockdown is possible really. 

We won’t have much better testing or a vaccine by then. The talk of contact tracing and widespread same day testing is bread and circuses from the governors who need to reopen ASAP before they have to gut social services and employment rolls. At the end of the day, the financial picture will be taking the lead here, IMO. If Fauci was in a vacuum he’d say stay closed until December. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

We won’t have much better testing or a vaccine by then. The talk of contact tracing and widespread same day testing is bread and circuses from the governors who need to reopen ASAP before they have to gut social services and employment rolls. At the end of the day, the financial picture will be taking the lead here, IMO. If Fauci was in a vacuum he’d say stay closed until December. 

I agree with you that the way things are going with our federal government not really being interested in testing/contact tracing we probably won’t.  But like you are saying the states won’t really have a choice, we can’t stay closed forever and it’s been a long time already. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think we actually agree on much of this @phineas.  The main points of disagreement I see are that IMO this is not remotely comparable to the flu and that the lockdowns are/were justified. 

[nw baltimore wx]

How far off are widely available antibody tests?

[Wonderdog]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A lot of the stay at home orders expire May 15, I believe. If the latest projections are correct, it would make sense to begin to relax things (outside of known hot spots) at that point. The biggest issue will be getting people back to work in cases where they are required to be in close proximity, and/or depend on public transportation. If the current lack of available and efficient testing/appropriate PPE is somehow resolved, then it should be possible to execute a 'reopening' in stages. Remains to be seen ofc.

And remember the phases all have conditions that preclude a gangbuster type of relaxation of those guidelines. Supposedly. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I think we actually agree on much of this @phineas.  The main points of disagreement I see are that IMO this is not remotely comparable to the flu and that the lockdowns are/were justified. 

I actually think they were justified in a general sense, but I think they came too late in some places and haven't had the desired effect (essentially we get all the bad and few of the good effects). I am also a little suspicious of the shifting rationale to justify them. Not all that long ago (a couple of weeks) we were told these lockdowns were needed to prevent millions of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals everywhere. NYC alone needed 40k ventilators. Not hearing that now. Talk seems to be about buying time for wave 2, more and more. That may be a real thing, but it's seems disingenuous to switch narratives mid-stream like that.

[Wonderdog]

37 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Jesus, they were nothing  but maga people funded by DeVos family. It is bullishit to let people spew right wing Fox News crap in here and pretend this isn’t a political discussion.

It goes both ways.

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

How far off are widely available antibody tests?

** playing solitaire on the deck **

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I actually think they were justified in a general sense, but I think they came too late in some places and haven't had the desired effect (essentially we get all the bad and few of the good effects). I am also a little suspicious of the shifting rationale to justify them. Not all that long ago (a couple of weeks) we were told these lockdowns were needed to prevent millions of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals everywhere. NYC alone needed 40k ventilators. Not hearing that now. Talk seems to be about buying time for wave 2, more and more. That may be a real thing, but it's seems disingenuous to switch narratives mid-stream like that.

I don’t think we would be seeing the hospitalizations and deaths coming down in NY if not for the lockdowns.  I also think they very well would’ve vastly outstripped hospital resources without a lockdown.  I think in general the lockdowns are having the desired effect of reducing deaths and lowering the burden on the healthcare system.  I don’t think that one models initial projection about ventilators was the sole reason we had lockdowns.  I think just looking abroad at China, Italy, France, and Spain were the main reasons.  I don’t hear much of the supposed talk about locking down until a second wave.  What I hear is people discussing much less disruptive waves to bridge us to the vaccine such as staggered schedules at work so people aren’t all in the same building at the same time, limited capacity at restaurants, etc.

[PhineasC]

If a bunch of people you know died from the virus, but it turns out they were simply unlucky and the virus was not the global death-machine they thought it was, I can see how you'd get angry, as irrational as that may be. It's a human response. It helps when we feel like everyone is in the shitshow with us together. It would be even worse if people started pointing out that the secondary toll from the lockdowns (job losses, starvation, suicides, etc.) might end up worse than the impact from the virus itself. It's going to take time for people who weren't even infected to heal from this.

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t think we would be seeing the hospitalizations and deaths coming down in NY if not for the lockdowns.  I also think they very well would’ve vastly outstripped hospital resources without a lockdown.  I think in general the lockdowns are having the desired effect of reducing deaths and lowering the burden on the healthcare system.  I don’t think that one models initial projection about ventilators was the sole reason we had lockdowns.  I think just looking abroad at China, Italy, France, and Spain were the main reasons.  I don’t hear much of the supposed talk about locking down until a second wave.  What I hear is people discussing much less disruptive waves to bridge us to the vaccine such as staggered schedules at work so people aren’t all in the same building at the same time, limited capacity at restaurants, etc.

Good post.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's clear to me that we're not there yet to open. Hopefully soon, but not right now. 

It doesn't have to be either/or when it comes to public health and the economy. Yes, there is a balance, but government policy and our politics make it a conflict. Tens of millions are losing their jobs. For those that have, you know it feels like your life is burning to the ground when you don't know where your next meal is coming from and if you can keep a roof over your head. As a business owner, just imagine having to let go people who have been with you for years and your life's work being destroyed.

That's as real as me having to watch my uncle's funeral via livestream and not being there to bury him. The trauma is different, but it's all devastating and profoundly scarring.   

None of this is going to be perfect. There's going to be risk that's uncomfortable for a lot of people as we open up. We can be smart without a complete lack of empathy--both for people that will die and get severely ill, and the people whose economic lives are being attacked by this virus as well. 

The war is far from over. On both fronts. Now's not the time to lose our resolve and make it every person (and state) for themself. 

Very good post.  Cheers.  

[PhineasC]

Soberng review of all of the other ill people suffering more because of the lockdowns and bans on "elective surgery."

 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2009984

I sure hope we all made the right call on this virus and accurately weighed the costs versus benefits. It's sort of like squeezing a balloon. You might lower the death rate on one side, but you raise it on the other.

[40westwx]

2017 - 2018 was worse than this in California and Florida

[ErinInTheSky]

I'm just glad I live in a reasonable state like Maryland so we can let the dumb states like Florida and Texas be the testing ground for what opening early looks like for us.

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

This is the part of your schtick that is boring.  

But it's happening in this thread every day. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

I'm just glad I live in a reasonable state like Maryland so we can let the dumb states like Florida and Texas be the testing ground for what opening early looks like for us.

What if they open and everything is fine? What will the new pivot be in your narrative on deadliness? They are fudging the numbers?

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

What if they open and everything is fine? What will the new pivot be in your narrative on deadliness? They are fudging the numbers?

I'll be super happy if that happens. I mean that.