SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I am arguing that social distancing prolongs the time in which the disease is in the population. That it needs to reach around 80% infection rates in order for it to extinguish itself. That flattening the curve will never change the number of people that contract the disease... the area under the steep curve is the same as the area under the flatten curve. And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population. We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. None of this makes any sense. The idea is to limit the number of deaths until treatments improve and/or there is a vaccine. Letting 80% of the population get this would probably result in a million+ deaths in short order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Why did i just click, "show this post"? You just perfectly demonstrated the problem with acceptable risk. You risked reading it and now are permanently damaged. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Why did i just click, "show this post"? Which post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol Countdown til @PhineasC blows a gasket over this post 5.....4.....3.....2.....1..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Which post? I wasn't referring to you. You entertain me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40westwx said: And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population. We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. I think this option was studied too. The problem is how exactly do you segregate the over-65 crowd from the rest of the population? 15% of our population is over 65. Many of them live with their children. How exactly do you lock down the elderly? Do business have "elderly-only" business hours and "under-65-only" business hours so that both cohorts don't intermingle? Are there separate grocery stores for the elderly and the under-65 crowd so that both populations don't intermingle? The elderly are lonely as it is - locking them down for 18 months until we either get either a vaccine or herd immunity seems tortuous. From a policy perspective, it seems infeasible to implement something like this, so they went with general restrictions for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Countdown til @PhineasC blows a gasket over this post 5.....4.....3.....2.....1..... I've always gotten along with Phin we have the same perspective on many things...not all but many. He can handle it and if not he'll be ok eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I wasn't referring to you. You entertain me. Okay good.. so I just heard a new Fauci commercial.. and it is indicative of a policy change. He is telling people "if you think you have Corona Virus, dont go to the ER, dont call 911, call a Doctor and tell them what is going" This actually makes a lot of sense. I think that one of the big concerns with the medical system being over stressed is that a lot of people are dumb.. and they will show up to the ER for a cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol So you're saying that the population size doesn't make their method as easily applicable here? (was asking about this earlier since I've been seeing some citing them as an argument for us not needing to have shutdown) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So you're saying that the population size doesn't make their method as easily applicable here? (was asking about this earlier since I've been seeing some citing them as an argument for us not needing to have shutdown) I'm saying on a pure math basis the deaths would be way too many to do it this way here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Okay good.. so I just heard a new Fauci commercial.. and it is indicative of a policy change. He is telling people "if you think you have Corona Virus, dont go to the ER, dont call 911, call a Doctor and tell them what is going" This actually makes a lot of sense. I think that one of the big concerns with the medical system being over stressed is that a lot of people are dumb.. and they will show up to the ER for a cold.. That actually has been the guidance for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm saying on a pure math basis the deaths would be way too many to do it this way here I think if the American people were okay with letting two million people die with the herd immunity approach, that would be our policy. But 85% of our country want to proritize lives over the economy. Hence that's our policy. Even with the herd immunity approach, our economy is screwed anyway. The entire world is shut down. And you'll have severe supply shocks due to people getting sick, and severe demand shocks because of fear (people don't want to travel, eat out, go to concerts, etc). So either way, the "deaths of despair" due to a poor economy will occur regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: In one breath you’re saying we don’t know enough to make actionable decisions and in the other we also know enough to open everything up and let nature take its course. Yea I tapped out of this mess last night. But good luck going down his rabbit holes. 3 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said: No one is keeping you here. I happen to love our country. And i think we are the greatest country on Earth and it is not even close. 1st Amendment dude...love it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I'm looking for digital snow maps. Is this the right place? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I tapped out of this mess last night. But good luck going down his rabbit holes. 1st Amendment dude...love it or leave it. its in jeopardy. We are slipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm looking for digital snow maps. Is this the right place? nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: its in jeopardy. We are slipping Something is slipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 MA/NJ/PA are all having pretty bad weeks. Hopefully Hogan's moves protected us from heading in their direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, mappy said: That seemed obvious. Did he say anything about daycares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: That seemed obvious. Did he say anything about daycares? yeah not sure why there are just extending instead of just saying they won't go back this year. ugh and no, haven't heard anything yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I tapped out of this mess last night. But good luck going down his rabbit holes. 1st Amendment dude...love it or leave it. You clearly are super invested in the doom porn side of this. It’s pretty much your style with weather threats too. “Fringed” and all that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, mappy said: yeah not sure why there are just extending instead of just saying they won't go back this year. ugh and no, haven't heard anything yet. Given how much uncertainty there is I don’t see any problem with biting off one month chunks. No reason to call it a year if there is even a small chance we could go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: You clearly are super invested in the doom porn side of this. It’s pretty much your style with weather threats too. “Fringed” and all that. lol you’re the one who won’t be satisfied until we have herd immunity and a million people are dead, it seems to me that you are the one invested in this angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm still wondering why they're still baby stepping it like this at this point. I mean...what would you hypothetically do after May 15th? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Given how much uncertainty there is I don’t see any problem with biting off one month chunks. No reason to call it a year if there is even a small chance we could go back. Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still wondering why they're still baby stepping it like this at this point. I mean...what would you hypothetically do after May 15th? Lol i have no idea, but i'm not a huge fan of it. sure a lot can change in a month, but enough that the state is comfortable sending kids back to school? no way... its probably a grace period to give them time how to handle the end of the year, grades, graduation etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: lol you’re the one who won’t be satisfied until we have herd immunity and a million people are dead, it seems to me that you are the one invested in this angle. LOL He has a human skull as his icon, so definitely seems ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: i have no idea, but i'm not a huge fan of it. sure a lot can change in a month, but enough that the state is comfortable sending kids back to school? no way... its probably a grace period to give them time how to handle the end of the year, grades, graduation etc. Either way I don’t see the need to rush the decision. In a month they’ll have more information to make a more informed decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You clearly are super invested in the doom porn side of this. It’s pretty much your style with weather threats too. “Fringed” and all that. Really? I find PSU one of the most reasonable weather posters here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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