COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It seems clear the governors were using the early 10%+ CFR data from Italy they had at the time. I don't know that for sure, but that's my guess. The governors are now ingesting better data hence the focus on reopening.

Thanks. I trust that Hogan was talking with his advisors that know more on the topic than him, and if he was using that data, he was using it in conjunction with those advisors to decide how best to move forward and what to ask for. At least that would be my hope. But we won’t know for sure. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don’t put any stock into flu death data.  I think it is a convenient cause of death for many end-of-life situations.  And they have to effectively guess at it anyway.  This is dramatically different from the flu.

Let's look at ARDS and pneumonia deaths instead of calling them COVID-19 deaths.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wait, you’re legit questioning confirmed cases in Virginia? Why would those age numbers be wrong? 

I have zero source for those numbers. If I get a source I can comment further. They look nothing like any other locality. Not even NYC. Very weird numbers.

[PhineasC]

"This is dramatically different than the flu."

Yes, we have zero herd immunity to COVID-19. This is what that looks like. In 2 years it will look like the flu, or likely even less potent because it mutates much more slowly.

[SnowGolfBro]

This is a silly argument for one very important reason.  There have only been about 208 deaths in VA from Covid-19.  So even if the numbers check out the sample size is way to small to draw any conclusions IMO

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have zero source for those numbers. If I get a source I can comment further. They look nothing like any other locality. Not even NYC. Very weird numbers.

VA Dept of Health

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

 

edit - there is a drop down menu mid-page where you can change from hospitalizations to deaths

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have zero source for those numbers. If I get a source I can comment further. They look nothing like any other locality. Not even NYC. Very weird numbers.

VA department of health. 

also, Maryland’s numbers show similar patterns. 
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov

[mappy]

^ sorry that’s a huge screenshot 

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

VA Dept of Health

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

 

edit - there is a drop down menu mid-page where you can change from hospitalizations to deaths

Those percentages look like proportion of deaths not fatality rate for each cohort. 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Those percentages look like proportion of deaths not fatality rate for each cohort. 

Didn’t mean to suggest they were.  Sorry.  The numbers actually appear to be the case %s.  They don’t readjust the %s for death or hospitalization, which is an obnoxious way of showing it.

[Inverted_Trough]

36 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Socialized medicine paradises around the world have been hammered by this disease. This argument seems empty.

I never mentioned socialized medicine.  A communal mindset means you consider how your actions affect others, you do things for a collective benefit, you have some faith in institutions, etc.  That's what's needed to get through a pandemic.  All of that is anathema to Ayn Randers.  John Galt isn't a public health kind of guy.

[SnowGolfBro]

6 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I never mentioned socialized medicine.  A communal mindset means you consider how your actions affect others, you do things for a collective benefit, you have some faith in institutions, etc.  That's what's needed to get through a pandemic.  All of that is anathema to Ayn Randers.  John Galt isn't a public health kind of guy.

Atlas Shrugged is my favorite book.  We could use a John Galt type of figure right about now.  Someone who is brilliant with a profit motive that comes up with a cure for the virus.  Anyway, Who is John Galt?

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

VA Dept of Health

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

 

edit - there is a drop down menu mid-page where you can change from hospitalizations to deaths

Those are weird numbers and do not track to the rest of the world. Either VA is really unique or they have a data issue.

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

VA department of health. 

also, Maryland’s numbers show similar patterns. 
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov

That looks nothing like those VA numbers to me.

[PhineasC]

15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Didn’t mean to suggest they were.  Sorry.  The numbers actually appear to be the case %s.  They don’t readjust the %s for death or hospitalization, which is an obnoxious way of showing it.

More useless data. So much of that out there right now.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

That looks nothing like those VA numbers to me.

Ok. Perhaps I should be asking what about the VA numbers look wrong to you?

[jaydreb]

We really could use some (potential) good news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ok. Perhaps I should be asking what about the VA numbers look wrong to you?

It turns out that is case numbers not death numbers (as asserted) so no point in discussing.

[mappy]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It turns out that is case numbers not death numbers (as asserted) so no point in discussing.

Okay

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We really could use some (potential) good news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

This drug (or perhaps another down the road) would change the whole discussion. If people had confidence that getting Covid was akin to getting Strep Throat or some other treatable disease.  Then the whole conversation is moot.  Everyone would be ready to go back to normal almost overnight.  That would be a best case scenario.  Put me in that camp.

[PhineasC]

25 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I never mentioned socialized medicine.  A communal mindset means you consider how your actions affect others, you do things for a collective benefit, you have some faith in institutions, etc.  That's what's needed to get through a pandemic.  All of that is anathema to Ayn Randers.  John Galt isn't a public health kind of guy.

OK. Seems kinda theoretical. America is what it is. We value personal freedom more than any other nation on earth. Makes us more vulnerable to COVID-19, it appears, but many of us are OK with that compared to the alternative.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It has not been in the 80s in New Orleans the last few months.  And Florida has 668 deaths at last count. There Are 20+ million people in Florida. And they got a ton of travelers from out of state during cold/flu/Covid season.  If the heat wasn’t a factor I’d expect to see much higher numbers. It’s going to start to heat up in New Orleans and i bet that will slow the spread there too.  Texas is another great example 30 million people and only 400 deaths. 

Texas shouldn't even be in the discussion.  The thing that people often overlook is that their level of testing per million has been atrocious... among the worst in the country.  Even the most widely tested place in the United States -- New York -- has been unable to test everyone who needs one and has resulted in thousands of probable covid-19 fatalities in homes/nursing homes that haven't been able to be confirmed via lab testing.  Florida has been better than Texas with testing, though a lot of room for improvement there. 

Even if warm weather helps slow the spread, it is so damn contagious that any warm wx benefit could easily be cancelled out if we start behaving recklessly. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Okay folks...so someone posted this and I wanted to know your thoughts (aside from the conspiracy "tyrannical government" claims) And forgive me if the Sweden comparison has already been discussed here.

I've always wondered what happens if we and half the world got it wrong and did all this for nothing? Not saying that's the case, but...is that still a possibility?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay folks...so someone posted this and I wanted to know your thoughts (aside from the conspiracy "tyrannical government" claims) And forgive me if the Sweden comparison has already been discussed here.

I've always wondered what happens if we and half the world got it wrong and did all this for nothing? Not saying that's the case, but...is that still a possibility?

That’s 4chan tinfoil hat stuff. Sweden is a much less urban population. Sweden has far less international travel. Sweden did ask people to self quarantine and social distance voluntarily. But Sweden is still doing significantly worse than their Scandinavian neighbors, up to 15 times worse, which is a better comp. We didn’t implement social distancing in time. We waited about 2 weeks too long. It’s not as effective when you wait until after there is widespread community spread. Lastly the assertion that Sweden is on the steep downward curve is false.  This doesn’t look like they have it under control to me. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Yikes. From the Wall Street Journal...

“In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people were reported to have died from Covid-19, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday.”

It sounds insensitive to say it, but hopefully the daily death count peaks quickly so we can definitely say we are on the other side of the curve.

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Yikes. From the Wall Street Journal...

“In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people were reported to have died from Covid-19, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday.”

It sounds insensitive to say it, but hopefully the daily death count plateaus quickly so we can definitely say we are on the other side of the curve.

Nah, its not insensitive.  Its having hope that the worst is behind us and the measures people are taking has helped slow things from being worse.  Yes, these deaths are tragic and many are losing loved ones.

What's insensitive is trying to rationalize and justify a certain number of deaths that are acceptable just so things can get reopened sooner.  Not you doing that but rumblings are beginning. Its easy to have a cavalier attitude about it when you have the means to limit risk.  And no one is 100% invincible to it.  A person that gets it might be lucky and do ok but its not guaranteed. 

i know I don't want to get it and take that chance.  Wife, kids, friends might be a little sad if I croak.  

[40westwx]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay folks...so someone posted this and I wanted to know your thoughts (aside from the conspiracy "tyrannical government" claims) And forgive me if the Sweden comparison has already been discussed here.

I've always wondered what happens if we and half the world got it wrong and did all this for nothing? Not saying that's the case, but...is that still a possibility?

According to the official model of every single scientist and policy maker in the world, Sweden will absolutely and definitely decline in deaths and cases faster than the US.  

 

[40westwx]

Without Protective Measures is by far the more palatable approach if you can accurately predict what is going to happen (and you have the balls to go that way).  The problem IMHO was lack of sound leadership and experience in the scientific communities.  I am fairly certain that #flattenthecurve was propagated by young inexperienced pHD types that didnt have the practical experience.

Its like when the Euro shows a mega HECs 10 days from now and @usedtobe comes in tells us why it isnt gonna happen that way.

[CAPE]

For those who still insist on downplaying COVID by comparing it to everything from car accidents to swimming pool deaths, including quacks/tv docs like Dr Phil and Oz, this graph is pretty telling.

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

[WxUSAF]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

For those who still insist on downplaying COVID by comparing it to everything from car accidents to swimming pool deaths, including quacks/tv docs like Dr Phil and Oz, this graph is pretty telling.

 

But Dr. Phin says once we cull the herd and all get herd immunity, we're all good!