SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Read the studies coming out looking at estimated IFR and total infected. I have posted some here. Daily snapshots of deaths and "new cases" are not helpful and lead to bad analyses. How could counting the number of people who die from something not be relevant? If less people die, that’s good, more people die, that’s bad. That’s irrefutable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 If you are mathematically inclined, you need to be looking at the area under the curve. Study the rate of change of the rate of change in deaths (AKA the second derivative). That's what Cuomo highlights in his briefings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: How could counting the number of people who die from something not be relevant? If less people die, that’s good, more people die, that’s bad. That’s irrefutable. It sucks that people are dying, but statistically COVID-19 is a drop in the global bucket. Public health officials need to look at the big picture. The global picture. Knowing that a bunch of people in NYC died tells you zip about how to handle reopening in Omaha and Bahrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: It sucks that people are dying, but statistically COVID-19 is a drop in the global bucket. Public health officials need to look at the big picture. The global picture. Knowing that a bunch of people in NYC died tells you zip about how to handle reopening in Omaha and Bahrain. Wow dude you’re off your rocker lol. I’m not worried about Bahrain bro. I’m worried about Montgomery county!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: You’re in a bubble. Most people want to be safe. Finding more cases wouldn’t make the deaths go away. Swine flu never came close to this rate of deaths. You sound like someone who is just sad over the deaths and wants to get that number to zero. I understand the sentiment, but it's impossible. People will be dying from COVID-19 for years to come. People still die from every single epidemic of human history. People still die from the bubonic plague every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yes, but for people to test positive, they have to have the virus. And every day we test 150k people we find 30k with the virus. That isn’t good. I beg to differ. Everyone talks about the denominator.. gotta keep the denominator low because that will keep the overall deaths low.. thats not necessarily true. Deaths dont lie.. meaning that you can get a relatively reliable count on how many people are actually dying of the disease (most of the time) but trying to estimate how many total cases there are is really a crap shoot. One thing what we do know is that for every person that shows symptoms there are other people that either are completely asymptomatic or simply dont show up at the doctor's office or ER writing it off as something that they will be able to manage. All of these uncounted cases increases the denominator.. but death... as it is hard to miss.. stays relatively steady or slowly increase... thus decreasing the overall perceived lethality of the virus.. The other benefit of increasing the denominator is that you get the benefit of herd-immunity (which is slowly but surely becoming a bad word in many circles) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: it's probably impossible here. Americans will tolerate mass death before they give up freedom and autonomy. Look at how we treat mass shootings. We buy more guns! Why do you keep referencing negatives about society to justify policy. Policy shouldn’t play to our weaknesses. It should be an attempt at the best possible outcome and to make things better. Not a white flag saying “that’s just how the cookie crumbles”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Wow dude you’re off your rocker lol. I’m not worried about Bahrain bro. I’m worried about Montgomery county!!! Public health officials need to think about large communities or entire nations. Not your backyard. It seems like you are taking a view from your personal basement, which is fine, but that has zero bearing on national decision making. How can you not get this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: You sound like someone who is just sad over the deaths and wants to get that number to zero. I understand the sentiment, but it's impossible. People will be dying from COVID-19 for years to come. People still die from every single epidemic of human history. People still die from the bubonic plague every year. I’m not arguing for that at all. 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I beg to differ. Everyone talks about the denominator.. gotta keep the denominator low because that will keep the overall deaths low.. thats not necessarily true. Deaths dont lie.. meaning that you can get a relatively reliable count on how many people are actually dying of the disease (most of the time) but trying to estimate how many total cases there are is really a crap shoot. One thing what we do know is that for every person that shows symptoms there are other people that either are completely asymptomatic or simply dont show up at the doctor's office or ER writing it off as something that they will be able to manage. All of these uncounted cases increases the denominator.. but death... as it is hard to miss.. stays relatively steady or slowly increase... thus decreasing the overall perceived lethality of the virus.. The other benefit of increasing the denominator is that you get the benefit of herd-immunity (which is slowly but surely becoming a bad word in many circles) I agree, but when more cases keep showing up it means eventually more people will die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why do you keep referencing negatives about society to justify policy. Policy shouldn’t play to our weaknesses. It should be an attempt at the best possible outcome and to make things better. Not a white flag saying “that’s just how the cookie crumbles”. OK, feel free to buck American history and public perception to wish for the utopia solution. That's fine. I will stay here in reality land that every governor has a plan to reopen now without large scale serological testing in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Public health officials need to think about large communities or entire nations. Not your backyard. It seems like you are taking a view from your personal basement, which is fine, but that has zero bearing on national decision making. How can you not get this? The virus spread a lot in nyc, now a ton of people are dying there and their hospitals are swamped. I want to avoid that here. What is there not to get? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The virus spread a lot in nyc, now a ton of people are dying there and their hospitals are swamped. I want to avoid that here. What is there not to get? NYC is fine. They can get medical care if needed. Please stop falling for the stuffed hospitals fear hype. It isn’t real. Hospitals outside NYC are laying off staff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It sucks that people are dying, but statistically COVID-19 is a drop in the global bucket. Public health officials need to look at the big picture. The global picture. Knowing that a bunch of people in NYC died tells you zip about how to handle reopening in Omaha and Bahrain. lol what? COVID is surpassing cancer and heart disease in a month WITH unprecedented social measures taking place. No, you can’t shut everything down forever, but accepting mass casualty rates because it’s expensive to avoid them is...not the answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 This isn’t going to be the 2A thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 NYC is fine. They can get medical care if needed. Please stop falling for the stuffed hospitals fear hype. It isn’t real. Hospitals outside NYC are laying off staff. source? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: This isn’t going to be the 2A thread. Sorry I’ll leave the 2A at the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: NYC is fine. They can get medical care if needed. Please stop falling for the stuffed hospitals fear hype. It isn’t real. Hospitals outside NYC are laying off staff. NYC is fine!!! Wow! I am from ny originally and most of my family lives there. I have two friends who are doctors in the area and everything they are all telling me is NOT fine. People are dying by the truckload. They have had the equivalent of more than 4 9/11’s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Makes you wonder. Must've died to the flu or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Makes you wonder. Must've died to the flu or something Not sure if we’ll ever know for sure, but I just can’t believe the low numbers in countries like India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: source? Some hospitals are temporarily furloughing staff in their outpatient clinics who are not qualified to support ER or specialty COVID operations. It's isolated to mainly rural hospitals locations that don't have a specialty (IE: trauma, stroke, etc.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not sure if we’ll ever know for sure, but I just can’t believe the low numbers in countries like India. Estimated numbers after the fact tend to bring up both the deaths and infections, and I'd imagine that'll give us a better picture. From what I remember, there were 3,000 confirmed H1N1 US deaths, but that number ended up being bumped up to something around 12,000 after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Some hospitals are temporarily furloughing staff in their outpatient clinics who are not qualified to support ER or specialty COVID operations. It's isolated to mainly rural hospitals locations that don't have a specialty (IE: trauma, stroke, etc.)thanks! That sounds reasonable and far from what the implication seemed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure if we’ll ever know for sure, but I just can’t believe the low numbers in countries like India. I think on a weather forum we can take an educated guess. Right now average highs are in the 90s in the most populous parts of India. I have yet to see an area where temperatures are in the 80 plus range have any significant issues with the virus. I’m not saying you can’t get the virus when it is hot out. I’m just saying name a place where it is hot over the last couple months that is having a huge issue with Covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: thanks! That sounds reasonable and far from what the implication seemed to be. My friend in PA is an x-ray tech who was furloughed through June 1. He works in outpatient and doesn't have the training to support the ER yet since he's only been there about 6 months. What Phin said is true, but it's a stretch if anything thinks it's widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Hey, if you want to be an emotional wreck over this and hope that Dr. Fauci bases his recommendations on daily death counts alone, that's your prerogative. I am choosing to be 100% rational and detached from this. Helps keep clarity. Looking at daily death numbers each night is completely unhelpful, academically and psychologically. In my opinion our failure to do anything at all about something so horrific is embarrassing and yes my emotions play a part. I guess I have some empathy. What’s wrong with me! Everyone reacts on emotion. You may start with “logic” but that logic then elicits an emotional reaction. Unless you are a robit emotion factors in everything. My logic says random acts of mass violence are bad and worthy of at least some attempt to mitigate. Your calculus is different leading to a different emotional reaction but your attempt to dismiss a competing argument without doing the necessary refutation with cheap labeling is weak sauce. Wrt covid...are you lumping me in with others? I’ve not advocated using daily death rates to do anything. I’m not participating in a straw man argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think on a weather forum we can take an educated guess. Right now average highs are in the 90s in the most populous parts of India. I have yet to see an area where temperatures are in the 80 plus range have any significant issues with the virus. I’m not saying you can’t get the virus when it is hot out. I’m just saying name a place where it is hot over the last couple months that is having a huge issue with Covid. The other issue is culture. Places like India, Japan, etc. it's normal to wear a mask if you're sick and have places like train stations thoroughly cleaned each night. Their society doesn't whine like an immature child when they have to modify their movement for a few weeks during a public health event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 At the end of the day, based on the last nyc comment @PhineasC it seems like one of the following must be true for you 1) you don’t believe that many people are dying 2) you don’t care that that many people are dying 3) you are one of those disaster porn people who won’t be satisfied til tons more people die If it’s number 1, id be interested to know where you get your info, if it’s 2, I guess we can’t make you care about human life but I’m sure glad you’re not the governor of Maryland, if it’s 3, just chill out and stop rooting for mass death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: NYC is fine. They can get medical care if needed. Please stop falling for the stuffed hospitals fear hype. It isn’t real. Hospitals outside NYC are laying off staff. What's not real ? The hospitals were out of control when this virus was spreading like wildfire late March early April here in NYC. The hospital are still swamped but not like jos they were. We are still in bad shape up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Makes you wonder. Must've died to the flu or something I have traveled to Ecuador and it definitely doesn’t seem like the kind of place where the government has the ability to do any kind of massive public health operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yes, but if you tested everyone you'd find probably millions of cases which would drop the death rate into swine flu territory. That would be good news. In order to drop the death rate into swine flu category (0.2%), that would mean that right now 8,053,000 New Yorkers have had the virus. (16,106/0.002). That... seems extraordinarily unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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