COVID-19 Talk

[jaydreb]

11 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

All of this, and then Ohio opening May 1. Ohio is going to look either really smart or really short sighted. It'll also be fascinating to see exactly how much economic activity ends up happening after Ohio opens.

 

They are going to “begin opening” on May 1 - whatever that means.  

[ErinInTheSky]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

To be fair, the way I interpreted it was May 1 is when they’re going to “begin” the process. Meaning it’ll be gradual, with probably still stipulations in place. Perhaps mask wearing, as much social distancing as possible and not opening everything at once. 

Lol, my CEO is from Ohio and she's enthusiastically excited and seems to think it's going to be like "We're OPEN!"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This post actually argues we need to focus on getting herd immunity, IMO. Hiding in your basement praying for a vaccine that may or may not work in 18 months is not feasible.

I know you will accuse me of being a "know it all" or whatever, but it's also possible for this to end up only a degree or two deadlier than a bad flu in the end but bring all the deaths in 2-3 months versus 6-9. That actually makes sense if the IFR is similar but the disease is far more infectious and we have zero herd immunity. The virus will ramp up very fast but burn out just as fast as it runs out of people to infect. All of these diseases are self-limiting (unless this particular coronavirus is somehow very different from all the others).

IMO the evidence does not point at all towards this ending up a degree or two off fromthe flu.  Just look at this graph of nyc all cause mortality.  

Herd immunity is a moot point with this virus.  It kills too many.  No governor is going to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of their citizens to attain herd immunity. 

[Inthepines]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

MD is set to go back Monday April 27th. As far as I know, the superintendent hasnt made a decision yet. Hogan has said he is letting them make their recommendations and he will make the final decision based on that. Other states, like PA, made the decision without conferring with the state superintendent. 

I’m a PG County teacher and we were given distance learning plans for 6 weeks (we start today). Our union has told us to prepare to be out of our physical buildings for the rest of the year. DC schools are out until at least May 15th at this point. With the state board of education cutting our year short to June 9th and axing final and state exams I’m not sure how much the kids would get from being back in school for two weeks.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

You can't use those kind of raw extrapolations. You have to factor in that not everyone moves around and interacts with everyone else in real-time and we can selectively close off hotspots as we go. We can also isolate the vulnerable populations that drive up the death rates. But frankly 600k deaths would be a small toll as global pandemics have gone in history...

I do not support global unfettered reopening. I can say I personally will not be in any restaurant, movie theater, or other major public space through the summer. But we can allow people to go back to work so they can put food on the table and pay bills.

Who is advocating for a complete lockdown for years?  But the “opening” coming won’t be significantly different than now. Essential businesses are running and they used a liberal definition of essential. Most non essential businesses would struggle to survive in a social distancing construct. There would be less demand for their services anyways.  There are some exceptions like golf courses where some intelligent policy changes could get them bank up and runninj. But that isn’t the majority.  The effect of the loss of many service and recreation industry jobs is going to be a deep depression regardless of what we call the policy.  So if you’re saying we should be planning some limited moves to get some sectors of the economy open that can do it in a way compatible with necessary social distancing policies I agree. But it’s not going to look substantially different than now to most people. 

[ErinInTheSky]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is advocating for a complete lockdown for years?  But the “opening” coming won’t be significantly different than now. Essential businesses are running and they used a liberal definition of essential. Most non essential businesses would struggle to survive in a social distancing construct. There would be less demand for their services anyways.  There are some exceptions like golf courses where some intelligent policy changes could get them bank up and runninj. But that isn’t the majority.  The effect of the loss of many service and recreation industry jobs is going to be a deep depression regardless of what we call the policy.  So if you’re saying we should be planning some limited moves to get some sectors of the economy open that can do it in a way compatible with necessary social distancing policies I agree. But it’s not going to look substantially different than now to most people. 

Part of me thinks you're right, part of me wonders if people won't just go crowd restaurants and beaches again.

 

I sure as heck am staying away from both.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Part of me thinks you're right, part of me wonders if people won't just go crowd restaurants and beaches again.

 

I sure as heck am staying away from both.

Likely the worst of both. Just enough do that to spread the virus but not enough to save the service industry economy. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Likely the worst of both. Just enough do that to spread the virus but not enough to save the service industry economy. 

Sounds exactly about right.

[psuhoffman]

One reason I favor a more universal policy with a temporary (and I mean temporary I am not attempting some socialist revolution) freeze and command controls of the economy, is if we try to run a market economy while one of the most significant sectors is shut down, we are going to exasperate what was already an unhealthy distribution of wealth and resources. The is no way to avoid the inequities this will produce. A freeze with temporary command controls then a reboot on the other side would be more equitable to everyone. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

One reason I favor a more universal policy with a temporary (and I mean temporary I am not attempting some socialist revolution) freeze and command controls of the economy, is if we try to run a market economy while one of the most significant sectors is shut down, we are going to exasperate what was already an unhealthy distribution of wealth and resources. The is no way to avoid the inequities this will produce. A freeze with temporary command controls then a reboot on the other side would be more equitable to everyone. 

When the government does something like that it is never temporary. You know that. Same thing happened after 9/11 with surveillance, security, etc. 

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is advocating for a complete lockdown for years?  But the “opening” coming won’t be significantly different than now. Essential businesses are running and they used a liberal definition of essential. Most non essential businesses would struggle to survive in a social distancing construct. There would be less demand for their services anyways.  There are some exceptions like golf courses where some intelligent policy changes could get them bank up and runninj. But that isn’t the majority.  The effect of the loss of many service and recreation industry jobs is going to be a deep depression regardless of what we call the policy.  So if you’re saying we should be planning some limited moves to get some sectors of the economy open that can do it in a way compatible with necessary social distancing policies I agree. But it’s not going to look substantially different than now to most people. 

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

We may get a test of exactly that in Ohio soon either way.

[NorthArlington101]

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

“Even if states lifted “stay at home” orders tomorrow, most people in the United States won’t go back to their normal routines right away, according to a new Gallup poll.

About 70% of Americans would “wait to see what happens” after restrictions are lifted before returning to normal life and 10% said they would “limit contact/activities indefinitely,” according to the poll released Tuesday. Twenty percent said they would return to their normal activities immediately.”

Read more here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241995696.html#storylink=cpy

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

“Even if states lifted “stay at home” orders tomorrow, most people in the United States won’t go back to their normal routines right away, according to a new Gallup poll.

About 70% of Americans would “wait to see what happens” after restrictions are lifted before returning to normal life and 10% said they would “limit contact/activities indefinitely,” according to the poll released Tuesday. Twenty percent said they would return to their normal activities immediately.”

Read more here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241995696.html#storylink=cpy

 

Seems to match up with the other poll that said 81% of people support continued lockdowns.

I don't think it's going to come into play until May 15th at the earliest anyway, except for in Ohio.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

This will be the least shocking thing in the history of mankind.  Everyone wants to return to their routine ASAP.  Of course people will. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, PhineasC said:

When the government does something like that it is never temporary. You know that. Same thing happened after 9/11 with surveillance, security, etc. 

It can be. We exerted some emergency command controls during WW2 then ended them. Things can be implemented with a set expiration date. The 9/11 security measures have been debated and reauthorized multiple times. We could stop electing representatives who do that. We could exert enough pressure to stop them.  But now we are veering way off topic. But you are basically advocating for a less effective policy because of your distrust of government. I’m not sacrificing people because of fear. I don’t live my life ruled by fear of the future. I’m not going to do something stupid today because someone else might do something stupid tomorrow. Deal with the problem in front of you in the most effective way possible. If or when government authoritarianism presents itself as a problem then we can deal with that. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

Yea well then we will end up in a bigger mess. The economy will suffer even worse if we have another spike. People might act all big and bad when that don’t see it and think it’s exagerated...the minute people around them get seriously ill and die they won’t be going out partying anymore.  The economic result is the same only we lose more lives. 

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

IMO the evidence does not point at all towards this ending up a degree or two off from the flu.  Just look at this graph of nyc all cause mortality.  Herd immunity is a moot point with this virus.  It kills too many.  No governor is going to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of their citizens to attain herd immunity. 

Florida, Oklahoma and South Dakota say hi.

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Florida, Oklahoma and South Dakota say hi.

You calling for hundreds of thousands of deaths in those states?

[PhineasC]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea well then we will end up in a bigger mess. The economy will suffer even worse if we have another spike. People might act all big and bad when that don’t see it and think it’s exagerated...the minute people around them get seriously ill and die they won’t be going out partying anymore.  The economic result is the same only we lose more lives. 

Fear is driving this all right now. Most Americans are not sick from this and it appears it will stay that way. We are really good at compartmentalizing death stats and learning to ignore them. Look at what we do for mass shootings. Aka nothing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You calling for hundreds of thousands of deaths in those states?

Given the discordant leadership by the governors in those states, it is certainly plausible to see these states have higher secondary spikes when things open up compared to the rest of the country.  To say I'm call for "hundreds of thousands of deaths" is a dubious assertion.  Our healthcare system is taxed and unfair to the consumer so if you go into the hospital and survive you're stuck paying off medical bills for awhile and don't have expendable income to participate in our consumer based economy.  

[PhineasC]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It can be. We exerted some emergency command controls during WW2 then ended them. Things can be implemented with a set expiration date. The 9/11 security measures have been debated and reauthorized multiple times. We could stop electing representatives who do that. We could exert enough pressure to stop them.  But now we are veering way off topic. But you are basically advocating for a less effective policy because of your distrust of government. I’m not sacrificing people because of fear. I don’t live my life ruled by fear of the future. I’m not going to do something stupid today because someone else might do something stupid tomorrow. Deal with the problem in front of you in the most effective way possible. If or when government authoritarianism presents itself as a problem then we can deal with that. 

Keeping everything tightly locked down is basically trading lives, dude. You are destroying the lives of healthy 30 year olds to save some percentage of obese 80 year olds with heart failure and diabetes and give them a bit longer. That’s the reality of the stats. Young people don’t die from this basically ever. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Keeping everything tightly locked down is basically trading lives, dude. You are destroying the lives of healthy 30 year olds to save some percentage of obese 80 year olds with heart failure and diabetes and give them a bit longer. That’s the reality of the stats. Young people don’t die from this basically ever. 

My biggest concern is getting to the point of hospital systems failing because of unrestrained spread. At that point it's a lot more than 80 year olds with heart failure and diabetes we have to worry about.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

COVID doesn't have lobbyists in Congress or state houses.  Any time legislation is proposed post-mass shooting the "muh guns" crowd creeps out and spooks feckless politicians into doing nothing.

LOL of course it does. Plenty of industries making a killing on this shutdown. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

My biggest concern is getting to the point of hospital systems failing because of unrestrained spread. At that point it's a lot more than 80 year olds with heart failure and diabetes we have to worry about.

Even in overwhelmed Italy barely anyone under 50 died from this. Look up the stats. They are actually kind of crazy. Even nurses getting hammered with viral load survived. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Keeping everything tightly locked down is basically trading lives, dude. You are destroying the lives of healthy 30 year olds to save some percentage of obese 80 year olds with heart failure and diabetes and give them a bit longer. That’s the reality of the stats. Young people don’t die from this basically ever. 

I don’t buy this.  People can go on unemployment, people can get back to work, and hopefully the government can perhaps provide more help like other rich nations do.  People can’t come back to life when they die of covid. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t buy this.  People can go on unemployment, people can get back to work, and hopefully the government can perhaps provide more help like other rich nations do.  People can’t come back to life when they die of covid. 

There is no political will to pay everyone’s salary indefinitely. People will start to go hungry and kill themselves from depression. 

[Vice-Regent]

45 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think you will be shocked by how many people will resume their normal routine the minute they can. Most Americans are done hiding in their basements, IMO. 

Nobody is hiding in their basements. What other options are available for something with a basic reproduction number of 5.5+? That means for every one person infected they will infect 6 other people.

Capitalism DESTROYER

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is no political will to pay everyone’s salary indefinitely. People will start to go hungry and kill themselves from depression. 

I dunno why you’re so gung ho about “indefinitely” or “6 months”.  If we are smart and the federal government does it’s just this can all happen much sooner.  It’s our job to demand they do that. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Just to be clear. You support not letting law abiding citizens own firearms and giving complete control of society to the government for some unspecified period of time.  And then trust the government to give us our lives back?  What could possibly go wrong?

No that is not what I said at all.  Please do not puts words in my mouth.