COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

caught up with my daycare lady, she was approved by the state to open next week. however she can only take kids for essential working parents. and shes only opening 3-days a week for now. 

but glad to hear she will be open and ready to help as needed. 

[WVclimo]

26 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

we're doing as well as can be working from home, and I hope you can say the same.

my dad was hospitalized 2 weeks ago for pneumonia as a covid-19 complication, but he came home after a few days and seems to be OK. my mom is presumed positive too, but she's had no symptoms after nearly 20 days after my dad began shedding the virus. they're both in their 80s so it feels as if we've dodged a big bullet.

Sorry to hear that this damned virus found your family.  I hope your father continues to see improvement and your mom can avoid the sickness altogether. 

The place I am working in Virginia was deemed essential, though its kind of a stretch to see how, lol.  So my daily routine hasn't changed much, other than trying to help the family through their feelings of isolation.  We have been doing quite a bit of hiking and biking to keep the kids motivated and get everybody out of the house regularly.  The kids are looking forward to warmer weather and getting the pool open.  And the wife is anxious to get vegetables in the ground.

[jaydreb]

NJ schools now closed through May 15.  I think MD is through April 30?  DC is through the end of next week?  Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, jaydreb said:

NJ schools now closed through May 15.  I think MD is through April 30?  DC is through the end of next week?  Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

I can imagine that nobody wants to say "close for the rest of the year", but...if ya gotta extend it until at least May 15th...is there really any point in trying to bring them back in after that?

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same, hahaha Ya know @supernovasky I think it's something about your screename...(I guess the -vasky suffix? Lol)

Yeah lol I used to always get the -vasky. It's actually Supernova Sky but LOL

 

59 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

LOL!  OK, I admit to thinking the same about @supernovasky.  In fact, I always thought the pronunciation was like an eastern European/Russian type of name, like "Super-novAski" (imagine Gru from "Despicable Me" saying that...). Then I realized, maybe it's actually "Supernova Sky"!!  

 

This is the correct pronunciation

 

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dang it! Now if I had read it like at the beginning I woulda made a better assumption 

Hehehehe yes all read banter thread so that we don't have to go over this in here!

 

 

[Wonderdog]

Officials just trying to get you used to the idea.

[ErinInTheSky]

6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

NJ schools now closed through May 15.  I think MD is through April 30?  DC is through the end of next week?  Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I can imagine that nobody wants to say "close for the rest of the year", but...if ya gotta extend it until at least May 15th...is there really any point in trying to bring them back in after that?

 

 

Yeah... I think we're just waiting to see what happens over the next few days but I'm anticipating the rest of the year is going to happen. Makes sense NJ closed, it's ugly there right now. Seems like Fauci's "rolling peak" is happening.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't necessarily disagree that the IFR is much lower than the numbers currently estimated by the WHO and CDC.  There is very good evidence using deductive reasoning of such.  But that kind of thing is also baked into the numbers of many viruses.  Yes we have a slightly better idea with the flu but it mutates significantly year to year and so we never do fully know the exact IFR each year and millions of cases go undiagnosed yearly so it is VERY likely the number is lower than the .01-.02 annually for the flu.  But there is another factor you are completely neglecting when you assume that if the IFR is similar to the flu we are obviously over reacting.  We have a degree of herd immunity built in to the flu.  We have a vaccine and some people have some natural ability to combat it due to previous exposures to similar strains.  Year to year the entire population isn't vulnerable.  The flu isn't going to infect the whole population in a short period of time.  This is not a comp situation.  A flu that infects 10% of the population with a .02 IFR is going to have a radically different effect on society than a virus that infects 80% with a .02 IFR.  That is the difference between 64,000 deaths (a bad flu season) and 512,000 deaths...(a major societal catastrophe).  And that doesn't even include the impacts of likely crashing the healthcare system in every major urban area and the ancillary effects of that.  

Again...your Hubris shows when you assume people disagree with you because of ignorance.  Perhaps they disagree because they are including MORE information not less in their impact calculus.  

This post actually argues we need to focus on getting herd immunity, IMO. Hiding in your basement praying for a vaccine that may or may not work in 18 months is not feasible.

I know you will accuse me of being a "know it all" or whatever, but it's also possible for this to end up only a degree or two deadlier than a bad flu in the end but bring all the deaths in 2-3 months versus 6-9. That actually makes sense if the IFR is similar but the disease is far more infectious and we have zero herd immunity. The virus will ramp up very fast but burn out just as fast as it runs out of people to infect. All of these diseases are self-limiting (unless this particular coronavirus is somehow very different from all the others).

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I can imagine that nobody wants to say "close for the rest of the year", but...if ya gotta extend it until at least May 15th...is there really any point in trying to bring them back in after that?

Right. It’s not a decision that anybody is happy about (even this kids probably aren’t happy at this point, they’re bored). But we know it’s inevitable. They may as well just make the call and then decide how to proceed with graduations, grades etc. 

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

NJ schools now closed through May 15.  I think MD is through April 30?  DC is through the end of next week?  Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

MD is set to go back Monday April 27th. As far as I know, the superintendent hasnt made a decision yet. Hogan has said he is letting them make their recommendations and he will make the final decision based on that. Other states, like PA, made the decision without conferring with the state superintendent. 

[H2O]

16 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

NJ schools now closed through May 15.  I think MD is through April 30?  DC is through the end of next week?  Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

Closing schools for the rest of the year was the one thing I think VA got right.  I'm not willing to risk sending my kid off to school with this still running rampant.  Just look at how many regular colds kids bring home before this virus went nuts.  Schools are breeding grounds.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This post actually argues we need to focus on getting herd immunity, IMO. Hiding in your basement praying for a vaccine that may or may not work in 18 months is not feasible.

I know you will accuse me of being a "know it all" or whatever, but it's also possible for this to end up only a degree or two deadlier than a bad flu in the end but bring all the deaths in 2-3 months versus 6-9. That actually makes sense if the IFR is similar but the disease is far more infectious and we have zero herd immunity. The virus will ramp up very fast but burn out just as fast as it runs out of people to infect. All of these diseases are self-limiting (unless this particular coronavirus is somehow very different from all the others).

Everything you said is accurate. But you leave out what the cost of that will be.  Herd immunity will require roughly 80-85% to get infected. Even if we accept your best case scenario that the IFR is .02 that means roughly 550,000-600,000 deaths. And what if you are wrong and it’s .05?  Now we are talking well over a million.  Got forbid the real IFR is .75...  and that’s all factoring in that it’s way lower than the 4% inflated by missing cases. Additionally the IFR will increase with your plan because the healthcare system will crash. And what about the side effects of that. The people that won’t get medical care for other conditions because 80% of the population gets sick within a few months. 

You are free to have your own opinion. I personally find a plan that sacrifices half a million people or more  and crashes our healthcare system totally unacceptable. 

[baldereagle]

 

5 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

they have been self-isolating longer than we as a society have and still he got.  I'm hoping my mom will have been an asymptomatic positive so she can rejoin the world once restrictions ease.

I feel for people with kids. we just have the cats and they're used to us being around after oceanwx's long recovery last year.  and i'm also anxious to dig in the dirt.

I wish your family members a speedy and lasting recovery. Dirt digging occurs in the political forum every day, if I recall correctly (having been lit up there once or twice, by you ;). Actual dirt? Much more fun. Enjoy the digging.........

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

MD is set to go back Monday April 27th. As far as I know, the superintendent hasnt made a decision yet. Hogan has said he is letting them make their recommendations and he will make the final decision based on that. Other states, like PA, made the decision without conferring with the state superintendent. 

No idea how we can social distance if my school returns in May. I have 30+ students per class and my room barely fits that many desks in it. No way to keep students apart. When I first started working as a teacher I got sick constantly for a year until my immune system ramped up. I do fear they might feel pressured to open schools out of a need for “daycare” and not because it’s safe or medically prudent. I have chronic asthma and bronchitis and if covid is still at all prevalent in the community when they open back up it’s almost a certainty I will get it. And then I spent the last month isolating for nothing. I’m not saying I know when the right tome to open is. But the decision needs to be based on sound medical advice not pressure to provide daycare so the economy can start up again. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything you said is accurate. But you leave out what the cost of that will be.  Herd immunity will require roughly 80-85% to get infected. Even if we accept your best case scenario that the IFR is .02 that means roughly 550,000-600,000 deaths. And what if you are wrong and it’s .05?  Now we are talking well over a million.  Got forbid the real IFR is .75...  and that’s all factoring in that it’s way lower than the 4% inflated by missing cases. Additionally the IFR will increase with your plan because the healthcare system will crash. And what about the side effects of that. The people that won’t get medical care for other conditions because 80% of the population gets sick within a few months. 

You are free to have your own opinion. I personally find a plan that sacrifices half a million people or more  and crashes our healthcare system totally unacceptable. 

You can't use those kind of raw extrapolations. You have to factor in that not everyone moves around and interacts with everyone else in real-time and we can selectively close off hotspots as we go. We can also isolate the vulnerable populations that drive up the death rates. But frankly 600k deaths would be a small toll as global pandemics have gone in history...

I do not support global unfettered reopening. I can say I personally will not be in any restaurant, movie theater, or other major public space through the summer. But we can allow people to go back to work so they can put food on the table and pay bills.

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No idea how we can social distance if my school returns in May. I have 30+ students per class and my room barely fits that many desks in it. No way to keep students apart. When I first started working as a teacher I got sick constantly for a year until my immune system ramped up. I do fear they might feel pressured to open schools out of a need for “daycare” and not because it’s safe or medically prudent. I have chronic asthma and bronchitis and if covid is still at all prevalent when they open back up it’s also a certainty I will get it. And then I spent the last month isolating for nothing. I’m not saying I know when the right tome to open is. But the decision needs to be based on sound medical advice not pressure to provide daycare so the economy can start up again. 

im willing to bet they wont be going back to school, so nothing to fret over. 

[ErinInTheSky]

So... Ohio is reopening May 1.

I know a lot of other places, like this area, are eyeing May 15.

So we may just have a state willing to be a guinea pig for the rest of us. We should know the effects of reopening by May 15 if Ohio indeed does reopen.

 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

So... Ohio is reopening May 1.

I know a lot of other places, like this area, are eyeing May 15.

So we may just have a state willing to be a guinea pig for the rest of us. We should know the effects of reopening by May 15 if Ohio indeed does reopen.

 

 

It's coming. The dam will break once one state opens, others will follow. I suspect the numbers will just be massaged as needed, they won't close again. Not a chance, IMO.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mappy said:

im willing to bet they wont be going back to school, so nothing to fret over. 

I agree 100% and Hogan has done terrific managing this. But I get annoyed when I hear certain people mentioning the restart and social distancing but then say “but schools have to open first because they are essential for parents to be able to work”. I totally get the practical economics behind that. But it makes no sense at all medically. No concerts. No sports. No gatherings. But let’s pack 1400 people into a small space everyday!  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's coming. The dam will break once one state opens, others will follow. I suspect the numbers will just be massaged as needed, they won't close again. Not a chance, IMO.

If they can open up successfully that soon then I tip my cap to them.  Ohio was also very aggressive and one of the first states to close schools so perhaps they’re in a better position than most.  I’m very hopeful they are successful.  If they are not and they have new outbreaks that get out of control it will be a large setback.   

[ErinInTheSky]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's coming. The dam will break once one state opens, others will follow. I suspect the numbers will just be massaged as needed, they won't close again. Not a chance, IMO.

It's going to be interesting to see what Ohio's reopening looks like. It looks like it won't be for all businesses. The biggest thing will be school and daycares, I think, and what they do with them.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

If they can open up successfully that soon then I tip my cap to them.  Ohio was also very aggressive and one of the first states to close schools so perhaps they’re in a better position than most.  I’m very hopeful they are successful.  If they are not and they have new outbreaks that get out of control it will be a large setback.   

Yup. The rest of the states aiming for May 15 will be able to see from Ohio's example if it works or not. 15 days should be more than enough time to see the effect of a limited reopening on cases!

[nw baltimore wx]

Just to be clear, Ohio did not say that they were opening schools on May 1, right? That, I think, would lead to trouble,

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Yup. The rest of the states aiming for May 15 will be able to see from Ohio's example if it works or not. 15 days should be more than enough time to see the effect of a limited reopening on cases!

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not.  Given that the incubation period + people getting tested can be quite a long time I don’t think 15 days would be enough.  I also don’t think most of the places that extended until May 15 are planning to open May 15.  I think they’re just adding 1 month increments on a wait and see basis. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not.  Given that the incubation period + people getting tested can be quite a long time I don’t think 15 days would be enough.  I also don’t think most of the places that extended until May 15 are planning to open May 15.  I think they’re just adding 1 month increments on a wait and see basis. 

I mostly agree. I kind of wish we had 3 weeks instead of 2. But 2 should be enough to see case counts start to go up, if the reopening leads to that.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just to be clear, Ohio did not say that they were opening schools on May 1, right? That, I think, would lead to trouble,

It's uncertain. I believe he said he is "looking into it."

[jnis]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No idea how we can social distance if my school returns in May. I have 30+ students per class and my room barely fits that many desks in it. No way to keep students apart. When I first started working as a teacher I got sick constantly for a year until my immune system ramped up. I do fear they might feel pressured to open schools out of a need for “daycare” and not because it’s safe or medically prudent. I have chronic asthma and bronchitis and if covid is still at all prevalent in the community when they open back up it’s almost a certainty I will get it. And then I spent the last month isolating for nothing. I’m not saying I know when the right tome to open is. But the decision needs to be based on sound medical advice not pressure to provide daycare so the economy can start up again. 

I too am a teacher and share your concerns. How would we run the lunch shifts? Class changes? Also if there were a resurgence of the virus within a school or cluster of schools, who will cover classes when the sub system gets overloaded. If we then fall back to closing schools, we will have to go through the whole start up of distance learning again. How would that affect parents who are now back at their jobs only to find that their kids will have to be home again? No easy answers for sure. For those of you who have kids at home, I realize that this distance learning is probably very difficult to manage if your child is not very independent, or is at an age where they need a lot of supervision. I can not speak for other school districts, but please know most teachers (hopefully all teachers, but I'm a realist) are working very hard to try to reach out to their students and create a learning experience that is meaningful. I am spending full days adapting materials, making videos, emailing students and parents, and attempting Zoom sessions. (Zooming with large groups of middle schoolers is tricky lol) I think it would be quite risky to open prematurely.

[Yeoman]

46 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I do not support global unfettered reopening. I can say I personally will not be in any restaurant, movie theater, or other major public space through the summer. But we can allow people to go back to work so they can put food on the table and pay bills.

Did you see the miles of cars lined up at various food banks in different parts of the country? I guess that stimulus is really kicking in.. Good thing no one dies from the effects of not putting food on the table or having a roof over your head.

[ErinInTheSky]

 

 

All of this, and then Ohio opening May 1. Ohio is going to look either really smart or really short sighted. It'll also be fascinating to see exactly how much economic activity ends up happening after Ohio opens.

 

[Baltimorewx]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

 

All of this, and then Ohio opening May 1. Ohio is going to look either really smart or really short sighted. It'll also be fascinating to see exactly how much economic activity ends up happening after Ohio opens.

 

To be fair, the way I interpreted it was May 1 is when they’re going to “begin” the process. Meaning it’ll be gradual, with probably still stipulations in place. Perhaps mask wearing, as much social distancing as possible and not opening everything at once.