ErinInTheSky Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, mappy said: @mapgirl18 Followed! <3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: Followed! <3 lol all this time i thought you were a guy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, mappy said: lol all this time i thought you were a guy. That's a funnier statement than you might realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: That's a funnier statement than you might realize. thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, mappy said: yes. this week has been especially bad regarding new hospitalizations, and its not surprising given how long it takes people from having mild symptoms to needing more care. 151 on the 12th for the 11th 115 on the 13th for the 12th 147 on the 14th for the 13th 109 on the 15th for the 14th I thought there was one +295 maybe like a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I thought there was one +295 maybe like a week ago oh shit, yes. you're right. missed that one. 296 reported on the 11th for the 10th. the MD dashboard didn't start showing new hospitalizations until April 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: That's a running tally, so it is not indicative of total currently hospitalized OK, seems manageable so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: OK, seems manageable so far. Yeah, it seems from the few news reports and hospital alerts from MEMA website, only a few PG and MOCO hospitals are being stretched thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I did too lol. Didn’t we meet at PSU’s place @supernovasky? My God, is my memory this bad at this age? See Banter LOL. This is hilarious. I never really made an "announcement" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I did too lol. Didn’t we meet at PSU’s place @supernovasky? My God, is my memory this bad at this age? lol you arent crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Some good news in the NY update from Cuomo. ICU admissions and hospitalizations are dropping pretty fast from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 hours ago, wxtrix said: schools are closed until at least 4/30, if that helps: https://www.wvpublic.org/post/justice-hopeful-reopen-schools-summer-offers-no-timeline#stream/0 Thanks Trix. I missed that. Hope all is well for you and yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Some good news in the NY update from Cuomo. ICU admissions and hospitalizations are dropping pretty fast from what I saw. Yeah, very good news. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Some good news in the NY update from Cuomo. ICU admissions and hospitalizations are dropping pretty fast from what I saw. Indeed. Now hopefully the backside of this curve doesn’t take forever to get down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Indeed. Now hopefully the backside of this curve doesn’t take forever to get down. Yeah. The take home message was that PAUSE was working and they extended it. they are also taking a regional approach and coordinating with NJ, CT, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 May 15th is very positive considering NY is the epicenter and way beyond any other regions in terms of cases and deaths. Hopefully they are in shape to open a little on that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: May 15th is very positive considering NY is the epicenter and way beyond any other regions in terms of cases and deaths. Hopefully they are in shape to open a little on that date. I’m REALLY hoping we can start getting back to normal by mid to late May. I’m not in a bad situation being a teacher. Stuck in the house with a 4 year old and 1 year old isn’t so bad with decent springtime weather and a steady paycheck honestly. I’m just anxious to get the kids back to their normal lives (seeing friends, seeing family, etc) . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: May 15th is very positive considering NY is the epicenter and way beyond any other regions in terms of cases and deaths. Hopefully they are in shape to open a little on that date. 1033 died yesterday in NYS CDC aided 3k deaths from Cuomos number yesterday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: May 15th is very positive considering NY is the epicenter and way beyond any other regions in terms of cases and deaths. Hopefully they are in shape to open a little on that date. He said this might get extended if the cases are still high but he said don't expect a normal summer just like what Deblasio also said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1033 died yesterday in NYS CDC aided 3k deaths from Cuomos number yesterday morning Yes, adding in the probable deaths. But I think @PhineasC was doing the apples to apples comparison of the confirmed deaths that cuomo always updates on. And we don’t have enough day to day data yet on the probable deaths to discern any trends from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 hours ago, PhineasC said: We have very good data on IFR for the flu because we have tons of historical data and widespread global testing with which to make inferences. Clearly you haven’t read the latest studies coming out that show the estimated IFR dropping. It will always be estimated because we cannot test 7.7 billion people. They test a sample group and extrapolate. Basic stuff I’m sure you understand. Maybe read some of the studies on this before assuming I am pulling this all from my ass. I posted one here yesterday, for example. I don't necessarily disagree that the IFR is much lower than the numbers currently estimated by the WHO and CDC. There is very good evidence using deductive reasoning of such. But that kind of thing is also baked into the numbers of many viruses. Yes we have a slightly better idea with the flu but it mutates significantly year to year and so we never do fully know the exact IFR each year and millions of cases go undiagnosed yearly so it is VERY likely the number is lower than the .01-.02 annually for the flu. But there is another factor you are completely neglecting when you assume that if the IFR is similar to the flu we are obviously over reacting. We have a degree of herd immunity built in to the flu. We have a vaccine and some people have some natural ability to combat it due to previous exposures to similar strains. Year to year the entire population isn't vulnerable. The flu isn't going to infect the whole population in a short period of time. This is not a comp situation. A flu that infects 10% of the population with a .02 IFR is going to have a radically different effect on society than a virus that infects 80% with a .02 IFR. That is the difference between 64,000 deaths (a bad flu season) and 512,000 deaths...(a major societal catastrophe). And that doesn't even include the impacts of likely crashing the healthcare system in every major urban area and the ancillary effects of that. Again...your Hubris shows when you assume people disagree with you because of ignorance. Perhaps they disagree because they are including MORE information not less in their impact calculus. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 hours ago, mappy said: lol all this time i thought you were a guy. Same, hahaha Ya know @supernovasky I think it's something about your screename...(I guess it's the -vasky suffix? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 NJ with 362 fatalities (highest yet), they appear to be peaking slightly after NYC which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 hours ago, mappy said: you and many others. but don't mind me while i enjoy my backyard pool. OK, now that is just harsh... . . . But still damn funny and I did get a good laugh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Same, hahaha Ya know @supernovasky I think it's something about your screename...(I guess the -vasky suffix? Lol) you should read the banter thread 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: OK, now that is just harsh... But still damn funny and I did get a good laugh!!! lol sorry. i shouldnt brag. i know i'm lucky compared to others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 hours ago, supernovasky said: That's a funnier statement than you might realize. 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Same, hahaha Ya know @supernovasky I think it's something about your screename...(I guess the -vasky suffix? Lol) LOL! OK, I admit to thinking the same about @supernovasky. In fact, I always thought the pronunciation was like an eastern European/Russian type of name, like "Super-novAski" (imagine Gru from "Despicable Me" saying that...). Then I realized, maybe it's actually "Supernova Sky"!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Wonderdog said: At the end of the day, people are going to have to assess their own risk level and act accordingly. And hopefully they will continue to wash hands frequently; practice social distancing; and wear your mask when needed. 3 hours ago, Yeoman said: Precisely Yea that is a disaster waiting to happen. This is not something that impacts each person individually, your decisions will impact the risk to everyone around you. But I am not shocked that some people don't want to give up any autonomy over their decisions regardless of how they affect others around them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, mappy said: you should read the banter thread lol sorry. i shouldnt brag. i know i'm lucky compared to others. All good...I knew it was in humor, and I thought it was funny...surely pretty well everyone else took it the same! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: LOL! OK, I admit to thinking the same about @supernovasky. In fact, I always thought the pronunciation was like an eastern European/Russian type of name, like "Super-novAski" (imagine Gru from "Despicable Me" saying that...). Then I realized, maybe it's actually "Supernova Sky"!! Oh dang it! Now if I had read it like at the beginning I woulda made a better assumption 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: we're doing as well as can be working from home, and I hope you can say the same. my dad was hospitalized 2 weeks ago for pneumonia as a covid-19 complication, but he came home after a few days and seems to be OK. my mom is presumed positive too, but she's had no symptoms after nearly 20 days after my dad began shedding the virus. they're both in their 80s so it feels as if we've dodged a big bullet. Oh, that's terrible...so sorry you all had to go through that! But I'm glad to hear your dad came through it OK, and hope that your mom did manage to avoid symptoms despite being exposed to it. Those are exactly the kinds of complications that make this so scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts