COVID-19 Talk

[PhineasC]

All of the governors are now talking about reopening fairly soon. Just a week or so ago they were saying they needed hundreds of thousands of ventilators and ICU beds and "model projections" showed potentially millions of deaths. But we are supposed to believe a week or two of social distancing suddenly "flattened the curve" enough that we can start reopening? That beggars belief.

It seems obvious the governors were using bad early model data that took Italy numbers for CFR and infection rates and simply extrapolated to the US population. The peak will come much, much lower than those estimates (yes, I realize many died today and it's very tragic and sad). Now, to save face, the governors will appear to slowly and deliberately manage the reopening to avoid it appearing as if the crisis was all overblown, which is of course also dangerous. It's very unlikely we will have the kind of truly needed testing in place before things start opening back up, but Americans will be told it is in place and we will go about our lives none the wiser. Expect the death counts to disappear from the mainstream news soon.

 

[ErinInTheSky]

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

All of the governors are now talking about reopening fairly soon. Just a week or so ago they were saying they needed hundreds of thousands of ventilators and ICU beds and "model projections" showed potentially millions of deaths. But we are supposed to believe a week or two of social distancing suddenly "flattened the curve" enough that we can start reopening? That beggars belief.

It seems obvious the governors were using bad early model data that took Italy numbers for CFR and infection rates and simply extrapolated to the US population. The peak will come much, much lower than those estimates (yes, I realize many died today and it's very tragic and sad). Now, to save face, the governors will appear to slowly and deliberately manage the reopening to avoid it appearing as if the crisis was all overblown, which is of course also dangerous. It's very unlikely we will have the kind of truly needed testing in place before things start opening back up, but Americans will be told it is in place and we will go about our lives none the wiser. Expect the death counts to disappear from the mainstream news soon.

 

You’re tripping. There’s no way on earth we are even close to anything resembling opening up.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

You’re tripping. There’s no way on earth we are even close to anything resembling opening up.

By mid-May it will be in full swing. Every governor is talking about this now. Didn't you say earlier you thought 1 June was reasonable? That's like two weeks later than I am predicting...

[ErinInTheSky]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

By mid-May it will be in full swing. Every governor is talking about this now. Didn't you say earlier you thought 1 June was reasonable? That's like two weeks later than I am predicting...

I think June 1 is when we will begin to see a relaxing of some things but I don’t think I’d call what I envision on June 1 as a full fanfare opening, everything is hunky dory sort of affair.

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

You’re tripping. There’s no way on earth we are even close to anything resembling opening up.

Yeah I agree, at least in PA. Starting this Sunday at 8pm, all workers and customers must wear mask when entering businesses. Gov Wolf will veto bill to reopen businesses. Mid May seems unlikely. I think June 1st at the earliest.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/coronavirus/wolf-mandates-masks-as-gop-seeks-to-relax-business-shutdown/2364235/ 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Yeah I agree, at least in PA. Starting this Sunday at 8pm, all workers and customers must wear mask when entering businesses. Gov Wolf will veto bill to reopen businesses. Mid May seems unlikely. I think June 1st at the earliest.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/coronavirus/wolf-mandates-masks-as-gop-seeks-to-relax-business-shutdown/2364235/ 

Yeah. June 1 is kind of an ambitious “everything has to go right” thing in my mind.

[PhineasC]

5 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I suspect the reason there are so many asymptomatic people is because the virus has a long incubation period.  It can take up to two weeks after infection to experience symptoms.  The flu and common cold typically takes just a couple days.

Too much focus on IFR - which appears to be at least 10x higher than the flu but it's an academic exercise at this point.  The hospitalization rate for this virus is very high.  The hospitalization rate for the flu is between 1%  and 2%.  It's  about ~20% for symptomatic covid patients.  The flu is an upper respiratory infection, which very rarely triggers a hospitalization.  Covid seem to attack the lower respiratory system.  That causes shortness of breath which leads you to the hospital.

Our assumption is also that people who recover simply go back to normal - just like is the case with the flu or cold.  There are some studies out there showing that a significant portion (20% or so) of people have lung scarring, heart damage and liver problems after they've recovered.  Obviously the virus is only a few months old and we'd need to have longitudinal studies done on the patients who have recovered from covid, to see how they fare long-term.  But those initial studies are concerning.  

In the meantime, we need to 1) collect data - lots of data, and research the heck out of this virus to remove the uncertainty surrounding it; 2) build a testing capacity such that we can test everyone.  Yes, we might need to test 330 million people.  Maybe that's impractical but I think we might have to strive for that. 3) Hire millions of people to help with contact-tracing.  We have 17 million recently unemployed:  Hire some of them to do this until we finally get a vaccine.

 

The hospitalization rate will not be anywhere near 20% for all symptomatic people. That’s not an accurate statement at all based on the data we have now. Not even close, actually. Neither is a 2% IFR for the total population. None of the numbers in your post were close to right based on our latest data. 

[ErinInTheSky]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The hospitalization rate will not be anywhere near 20% for all symptomatic people. That’s not an accurate statement at all based on the data we have now. Not even close, actually. Neither is a 2% IFR for the total population. None of the numbers in your post were close to right based on our latest data. 

Who knows. The data is the data and the scientists working on advising on these decisions have access to all the right data. Neither you nor I is an epidemiologist and right now we have 2400 dying a day. 2400 deaths a day isn’t sustainable. Nor is however many it would be if we let it spread unimpeded. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Right now raw case fatality rate is 4.4% in the United States, and that’s not counting the people who haven’t been added to the total that New York will be reporting separately as “probable covid”.

 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Right now raw case fatality rate is 4.4% in the United States, and that’s not counting the people who haven’t been added to the total that New York will be reporting separately as “probable covid”.

 

Again, the CFR number is completely bogus without knowing total infected. I really wish people would stop posting it and the media would stop reporting it. 

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Who knows. The data is the data and the scientists working on advising on these decisions have access to all the right data. Neither you nor I is an epidemiologist and right now we have 2400 dying a day. 2400 deaths a day isn’t sustainable. Nor is however many it would be if we let it spread unimpeded. 

The numbers in the main govt model for peak dates have been changing rather dramatically over the past week or so, so it isn’t clear to me they had a handle on this when they first issued the lockdown orders. 

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, supernovasky said:

As someone else who works with data, you and me both!

The data dont lie.

[Inverted_Trough]

46 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The hospitalization rate will not be anywhere near 20% for all symptomatic people. That’s not an accurate statement at all based on the data we have now. Not even close, actually. Neither is a 2% IFR for the total population. None of the numbers in your post were close to right based on our latest data. 

It's about 20% for all confirmed cases.  Yes, I realize many symptomatic people don't get diagnosed.  But that's still very high.

On average, heart disease kills ~1800 people per day.  Cancer kills about 1650 people daily.  Covid is killing more people than heart disease and cancer right now.  So while we can argue about IFR -- which is unknowable and a completely academic exercise to calculate -- morgues filled with bodies represent real facts on the ground.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

Who knows. The data is the data and the scientists working on advising on these decisions have access to all the right data. Neither you nor I is an epidemiologist and right now we have 2400 dying a day. 2400 deaths a day isn’t sustainable. Nor is however many it would be if we let it spread unimpeded. 

But he stayed at a holiday inn once!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Again, the CFR number is completely bogus without knowing total infected. I really wish people would stop posting it and the media would stop reporting it. 

Your assertion the CFR is inflated by undiagnosed cases is logical. But beyond that everything else you assert is speculative. You have no way to accurately predict what the true exact IFR is. And when comparing this to other infections you fail to acknowledge that same effect. Millions of people get infected with the flu and never go to the doctors. They never show up in the data. This isn’t unique to covid.  What is unique is the extreme strain on society it produces in places it spreads that are unprepared.  Your assertion that the entire global medical community in conjunction with every policy maker and government leader are all overreacting based on pure speculation despite the fact they have access to way more pertinent information is one of extreme hubris. It must be such a burden being so much smarter than all the mouth breathing morons that obviously surround you! 

[H2O]

8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

That's terrible and unacceptable. Millions live paycheck to paycheck . Each week delay is a exponential impact for them....and they will suffer immensely from the collateral damage.  I read Michigan has real outdated unemployment policies and the same problem.  Good luck to you and your friend 

Here in VA it has been a slow process.  My wife filed for unemployment back in March when she was laid off.  This was after Northam said that claims wouldn't need to have weekly job searches to get payment knowing people couldn't go look for work.  Her claim was denied due to the place she works not being eligible.  But with the passage of the CARES act by Congress it was meant to cover those who don't normally fit the unemployment requirements. VA has since tried to make their claims system adapt to this new condition but its been slow.  One month later and still no unemployment assistance.

Thankfully I have been working and I cover most of the monthly expenses anyways but I feel really bad for many others like mt deal who probably haven't received any gov't assistance for weeks.

[mappy]

6 hours ago, Jebman said:

The data dont lie.

yes, but to be fair we don't have nearly enough data. phineas isn't wrong in that the current models and mortality rates, etc... are all showing a picture that isn't true to reality. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, mappy said:

yes, but to be fair we don't have nearly enough data. phineas isn't wrong in that the current models and mortality rates, etc... are all showing a picture that isn't true to reality. 

He’s not, but he makes some pretty strong assumptions and inferences on what he feels is the true to reality picture. We need more data, everyone knows that, but the whole dance from “We don’t have enough data” to “this is all overblown and this thing is not nearly as bad as the lying media makes it out to be” is a little much.

[mappy]

Just now, supernovasky said:

He’s not, but he makes some pretty strong assumptions and inferences on what he feels is the true to reality picture. We need more data, everyone knows that, but the whole dance from “We don’t have enough data” to “this is all overblown and this thing is not nearly as bad as the lying media makes it out to be” is a little much.

Ha, get used to that narrative, friend. Its coming. 

Saw this yesterday and me laugh. spot on for many.

 

[PhineasC]

6 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

It's about 20% for all confirmed cases.  Yes, I realize many symptomatic people don't get diagnosed.  But that's still very high.

On average, heart disease kills ~1800 people per day.  Cancer kills about 1650 people daily.  Covid is killing more people than heart disease and cancer right now.  So while we can argue about IFR -- which is unknowable and a completely academic exercise to calculate -- morgues filled with bodies represent real facts on the ground.

Most states are still only testing those with very obvious symptoms. There is a strong self-selection bias at work with hospitalization rates because only the sickest patients go to the ER and then some percentage of them are admitted (much lower than 20% still). The number you used is just wrong all around. How many die per day from ARDS and pneumonia?

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

He’s not, but he makes some pretty strong assumptions and inferences on what he feels is the true to reality picture. We need more data, everyone knows that, but the whole dance from “We don’t have enough data” to “this is all overblown and this thing is not nearly as bad as the lying media makes it out to be” is a little much.

I think it’s telling when people get defensive over someone questioning the narrative that this disease is a massively deadly killer we barely have under control and arguing things are going to be OK sooner than expected (which is good news). Seems some are emotionally invested in the doomsday scenarios. 

[mappy]

^^ not wrong 

[PhineasC]

People will definitely say we overreacted, that’s just human nature. But it might also be fair to say we misjudged the point at which hospital capacity would be overwhelmed which caused us to set the target curve too low. I understand the Dr. Fauci argument that it is better to overreact, but we need to acknowledge we destroyed a bunch of lives and businesses across the globe at the same time. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I think it’s telling when people get defensive over someone questioning the narrative that this disease is a massively deadly killer we barely have under control and arguing things are going to be OK sooner than expected (which is good news). Seems some are emotionally invested in the doomsday scenarios. 

Nah, just more invested in preventing people from falling into the stupidity of thinking they know better than the scientists making these decisions. I have get “this is all a hoax” messages from my mom and dad, both of whom have preexisting conditions, on the daily.

 

We all hope the disease is not as bad as expected but right now, 2400 people a day are dying here and that doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. It’s discordant to see that and all the suffering then to come on here with you pulling the whole “it’s just a flu” type song and dance.

[mappy]

ugh. there went my ability to agree.

we destroyed lives! because we overreacted! ermahgerd

 

can you even imagine the lives lost if we had continued business as usual in march? 

[PhineasC]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Your assertion the CFR is inflated by undiagnosed cases is logical. But beyond that everything else you assert is speculative. You have no way to accurately predict what the true exact IFR is. And when comparing this to other infections you fail to acknowledge that same effect. Millions of people get infected with the flu and never go to the doctors. They never show up in the data. This isn’t unique to covid.  What is unique is the extreme strain on society it produces in places it spreads that are unprepared.  Your assertion that the entire global medical community in conjunction with every policy maker and government leader are all overreacting based on pure speculation despite the fact they have access to way more pertinent information is one of extreme hubris. It must be such a burden being so much smarter than all the mouth breathing morons that obviously surround you! 

We have very good data on IFR for the flu because we have tons of historical data and widespread global testing with which to make inferences. Clearly you haven’t read the latest studies coming out that show the estimated IFR dropping. It will always be estimated because we cannot test 7.7 billion people. They test a sample group and extrapolate. Basic stuff I’m sure you understand. Maybe read some of the studies on this before assuming I am pulling this all from my ass. I posted one here yesterday, for example. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

ugh. there went my ability to agree.

we destroyed lives! because we overreacted! ermahgerd

 

can you even imagine the lives lost if we had continued business as usual in march? 

Aren’t you glad it’s in the hands of public health experts and not a few people bickering back and forth on AmericanWx? 

[mappy]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Aren’t you glad it’s in the hands of public health experts and not a few people bickering back and forth on AmericanWx? 

yes of course. but that narrative, again, is to be expected. 

if we hadn't closed down things and the death toll was 10x what it is now, you'd have people saying we didn't do enough and everyone in charge has got to go.

there is no happy middle. and those who are happy in the middle aren't saying it out loud because they know their place.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We have very good data on IFR for the flu because we have tons of historical data and widespread global testing with which to make inferences. Clearly you haven’t read the latest studies coming out that show the estimated IFR dropping. It will always be estimated because we cannot test 7.7 billion people. They test a sample group and extrapolate. Basic stuff I’m sure you understand. Maybe read some of the studies on this before assuming I am pulling this all from my ass. I posted one here yesterday, for example. 

The fixation on rates, of which we do not know and will not know until the disease is well over, and if which is affected by population makeup (demographics, how many are overweight, how many have preexisting conditions), instead of on the ground reality of 2,400 dying daily, continues to baffle me.

 

Even in this magical world where Covid is just a flu with a 0.1% mortality rate which basically no scientist making this decision agrees with, 6-7% are susceptible to the flu any given year but everyone is susceptible to coronavirus, so it would be like having 10 flu seasons all at once in a tiny little time period.

[OSUmetstud]

 

29 minutes ago, mappy said:

yes, but to be fair we don't have nearly enough data. phineas isn't wrong in that the current models and mortality rates, etc... are all showing a picture that isn't true to reality. 

Which models are we discussing? One study, from University of College London that supposed 2 million could die in the US without any intervention. I've seen anywhere from 60-80K modeled on IMHE through August with all the interventions in place and the model that the Trump Admin discussed had 100-240K. I'm not sure what time frame the last estimate was for, though. We're at 32K and it's tough to say we've peaked yet given we're not at the top of the curve.