COVID-19 Talk

[ErinInTheSky]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

June 1 will work IF they allow daycares to reopen, even if it’s limited kids allowed. Without something in place for kids it’s going to be really hard to get at home working parents back in offices. 

Yeah.... That will depend pretty hardcore where we're at by then. If we have new case numbers of like 10 per day in Maryland, then yeah... they can probably reopen and contact trace.

 

I think that's honestly possible if we stay good about our lockdown til then.

[ErinInTheSky]

I will add though that with extensive contact tracing, it's likely some will end up shut down for 14 days at a time left and right when a contact trace connects to a daycare.

[PhineasC]

I was telling someone yesterday that daycares will be the hardest question with this. Schools will just punt to next year, although that raises some questions about grades...

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

You need to take a basic economics course if you think that you can print money endlessly and not have it's value go to zero

I teach economics. And the good old more money means more inflation example is true on a general level and I use that in my basic Econ classes but it’s not really that simple. We don’t spend money from tax revenues. We print it. Then the following year we remove the excess needed to prevent unhealthy inflation either fiscally by taxing or monetarily through open market operations or tinkering with interest rates. The deficit is just an estimate of the imbalance between spending and estimated taxes at current levels. But the economic imbalance caused by an infusion of currency isn’t equal in all circumstances. The negative destabilizing effects will be offset by the downward pressures on wages and consumer spending right now. We can spend much more recklessly in this situation without the negative consequences. And ultimately if everything were shut down and we HAD no choice inflation is much preferable to no money at all. Bottom line is my point that the government cannot run out of money to assist in an emergency is valid. The details are debatable if you really want to argue economics. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Don't be so sure lol. I love getting out of the house as much as everyone else. I miss movies and restaurants and I'm a deacon in my church and it sucks so badly that we're not meeting in person anymore.

And as a church musician I feel this...missing my choir, certainly missed playing this past Sunday. (But thank God for livestreamed services/masses...at least we have that!)

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We are still OK, but if the govt keeps printing money that will lead to inflation. The coming supply shortages will make that even worse. Devaluing your currency by handing out more of it and then tightening supply is how you get runaway inflation.

See my post to Yeoman. We can offset the imbalance later. During this crises you won’t see rapid inflation because of offsetting negative economic pressures. Supply shortages could become a bigger issue but most essential products will continue to be produced and the supply chain is operating for now. A disruption in that would be devastating but that’s a different issue. Other products won’t run out because there is a drop in demand with everyone on lockdown. The “print money = inflation” analogy is 100 level Econ. I’m talking advanced “real” policy here. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I was telling someone yesterday that daycares will be the hardest question with this. Schools will just punt to next year, although that raises some questions about grades...

Distance learning has been clunky so far. I have 2 kids in elementary school and the google classroom app can be somewhat diffucult to operate. Especially when you have links that direct you to websites that bog down your wifi. Tears from my 9 year old all afternoon because she keeps getting kicked off. Ive heard  that whatever grade they ended up with at the end of the 3rd marking period will be there final grade but that's just a rumor right now.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Google Weimar Germany and hyperinflation.  You will demand the government stop printing money.

Printing money can’t solve a supply shortage. We don’t have a supply shortage.  Not all economic situations are the same. 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah.... That will depend pretty hardcore where we're at by then. If we have new case numbers of like 10 per day in Maryland, then yeah... they can probably reopen and contact trace.

 

I think that's honestly possible if we stay good about our lockdown til then.

I’m expecting schools to stay closed. Everyone gets punted to the next grade level, seniors graduate and so on. It will suck but they can’t hold kids back and they can’t restart. So unless they expect kids to go to school during the summer...there are no other options. 
so the biggest issue for my house, and I assume many others, is we have a kid at home who isn’t old enough to stay home alone, with two parents whose offices are now open and we are expected to show up. Without a childcare plan in place, it means one of us has to stay home, until school starts again. It’s not feasible. Our offices are understanding now, because everything is shut down...but how understanding will they be if things open up and we still stay home? I’d hope understanding but who the hell knows what these corporate minds think. 
 

im just rambling now about my own concerns moving forward. I want things to be as close to normal as everyone else does, but I understand the risk. I’m glad Hogan is already putting a plan in motion on how to reopen. It’s reassuring, but man sooo many variables to consider.

[ErinInTheSky]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m expecting schools to stay closed. Everyone gets punted to the next grade level, seniors graduate and so on. It will suck but they can’t hold kids back and they can’t restart. So unless they expect kids to go to school during the summer...there are no other options. 
so the biggest issue for my house, and I assume many others, is we have a kid at home who isn’t old enough to stay home alone, with two parents whose offices are now open and we are expected to show up. Without a childcare plan in place, it means one of us has to stay home, until school starts again. It’s not feasible. Our offices are understanding now, because everything is shut down...but how understanding will they be if things open up and we still stay home? I’d hope understanding but who the hell knows what these corporate minds think. 
 

im just rambling now about my own concerns moving forward. I want things to be as close to normal as everyone else does, but I understand the risk. I’m glad Hogan is already putting a plan in motion on how to reopen. It’s reassuring, but man sooo many variables to consider.

It's hard for sure. Honestly my heart hurts that my son is missing time from his friends.

[Vice-Regent]

48 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Made an edit.. mean't "can" print

Global Weimar Germany. Kill me now so let's follow up with the appropriate response.

[jonjon]

I just plan on selling my kids.

 

Can just print (make) more later

[Chris78]

Just now, mappy said:

I’m expecting schools to stay closed. Everyone gets punted to the next grade level, seniors graduate and so on. It will suck but they can’t hold kids back and they can’t restart. So unless they expect kids to go to school during the summer...there are no other options. 
so the biggest issue for my house, and I assume many others, is we have a kid at home who isn’t old enough to stay home alone, with two parents whose offices are now open and we are expected to show up. Without a childcare plan in place, it means one of us has to stay home, until school starts again. It’s not feasible. Our offices are understanding now, because everything is shut down...but how understanding will they be if things open up and we still stay home? I’d hope understanding but who the hell knows what these corporate minds think. 
 

im just rambling now about my own concerns moving forward. I want things to be as close to normal as everyone else does, but I understand the risk. I’m glad Hogan is already putting a plan in motion on how to reopen. It’s reassuring, but man sooo many variables to consider.

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

[jaydreb]

58 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Smart and what I've been saying this entire time. Exactly what we need to do. Get PPE, get testing, get contact tracing.

Everyone has been saying this, even federal officials like Fauci and Birx.  

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Everyone has been saying this, even federal officials like Fauci and Birx.  

Get real bro. It's never going to happen en-masse and it's not going to happen in the third-world. Next best thing ... vaccines and herd immunity.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's hard for sure. Honestly my heart hurts that my son is missing time from his friends.

Same. Understand the heart ache 

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

I saw your post. Teacher friends I have haven’t heard anything 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

That’s how we are doing it in VA.  

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Printing money can’t solve a supply shortage. We don’t have a supply shortage.  Not all economic situations are the same. 

Seems like a bold statement. Supply shortages in some cases are here already (could be mostly due to hoarding right now), and others are right around the corner.

[PhineasC]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

See my post to Yeoman. We can offset the imbalance later. During this crises you won’t see rapid inflation because of offsetting negative economic pressures. Supply shortages could become a bigger issue but most essential products will continue to be produced and the supply chain is operating for now. A disruption in that would be devastating but that’s a different issue. Other products won’t run out because there is a drop in demand with everyone on lockdown. The “print money = inflation” analogy is 100 level Econ. I’m talking advanced “real” policy here. 

Hyperinflation has definitely occurred in the real world and it destroyed entire nations... it's not a theoretical idea and hitting the pause button on over half of the global economy overnight is unprecedented. Uncharted waters.

In order to offset the imbalance, we would need to cut spending later which never, ever happens in this country any more. We are almost entirely dependent on consumption right now...

 

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

That's one way to do it, but that will be deeply unfair to some students. Probably unavoidable.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m expecting schools to stay closed. Everyone gets punted to the next grade level, seniors graduate and so on. It will suck but they can’t hold kids back and they can’t restart. So unless they expect kids to go to school during the summer...there are no other options. 
so the biggest issue for my house, and I assume many others, is we have a kid at home who isn’t old enough to stay home alone, with two parents whose offices are now open and we are expected to show up. Without a childcare plan in place, it means one of us has to stay home, until school starts again. It’s not feasible. Our offices are understanding now, because everything is shut down...but how understanding will they be if things open up and we still stay home? I’d hope understanding but who the hell knows what these corporate minds think. 
 

im just rambling now about my own concerns moving forward. I want things to be as close to normal as everyone else does, but I understand the risk. I’m glad Hogan is already putting a plan in motion on how to reopen. It’s reassuring, but man sooo many variables to consider.

I hear you and feel for you the situation you're in (having been there myself not that many years ago!).  It is a concern in terms of whether daycare places open at the same time anyone's office does; I'd guess probably not at the same time.  One would *hope*, really, that coming out of this at some point, work places that are allowing remote/teleworking would extend that to those who must still be at home to care for a child whose daycare or school is not yet open.  That would be reasonable, I'd think.  I mean, if they have no problem with you remote working now, why would they have a problem even if the office is "open"?  But you're right...how understanding will some of these corporate entities be?  I know as a gov't employee, I'm extremely fortunate that they've become far more flexible in the past decade concerning teleworking.  Heck, some people TW a few days a week regularly, even if they're right here in town (DC area).

[Vice-Regent]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's one way to do it, but that will be deeply unfair to some students. Probably unavoidable.

What is the true purpose of education if the higher education system is shut down? Shouldn't we be re-tooling our kids with different skill sets?

I know it's early but I would rather have my child capable of growing a garden and knowing medicinal herbs and the various other survival skills.

[Vice-Regent]

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Gonna be another very bad death total today, CT  197, MI 151, MA 153, NJ 351, IL 80.  All at or near their highest.  

[yoda]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Would be a great time to attempt a coup and/or request "emergency powers."

Okay Jar Jar

[ErinInTheSky]

2,259 deaths right now and there are still several more states to report. May be the deadliest day of the pandemic yet again.

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hyperinflation has definitely occurred in the real world and it destroyed entire nations... it's not a theoretical idea and hitting the pause button on over half of the global economy overnight is unprecedented. Uncharted waters.

In order to offset the imbalance, we would need to cut spending later which never, ever happens in this country any more. We are almost entirely dependent on consumption right now...

 

I didn’t say inflation isn’t real or that infusing too much currency into a market is always a good idea. In general it’s a bad idea. But not all infusions imbalance the economy equally.  And there are ways to deal with the imbalance without drastic cuts.  When the economy grows you can offset some of the imbalance simply by keeping expenditures level.  There are also monetary tools to mitigate without fiscal measures. We could reduce the excess currency in circulation by selling securities. We can control inflation by raising the discount rate or reserve requirement.

Ideally we want to avoid creating a currency excess but at times it can be managed and the lesser evil. 

[PhineasC]

24 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gonna be another very bad death total today, CT  197, MI 151, MA 153, NJ 351, IL 80.  All at or near their highest.  

Death is a lagging indicator. Those dying now were infected at least 14-20 days ago or more, on average (there are outliers). We need to stick to the plan through the death counts.

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Okay Jar Jar

I am the Senate, my little green friend...

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Death is a lagging indicator. Those dying now were infected at least 14-20 days ago or more, on average (there are outliers). We need to stick to the plan through the death counts.

25,000 new cases in the US and those deaths are 14-20 days away. Not sure I accept that line of reasoning. We need to lock-down for 6 months and we need door to door vaccines. A massive mobilization effort. Hospitals are death traps.