COVID-19 Talk

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

What are seasonal influenza-related deaths?

Seasonal influenza-related deaths are deaths that occur in people for whom influenza infection was likely a contributor to the cause of death, but not necessarily the primary cause of death.

Does CDC know the exact number of people who die from seasonal flu each year?

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. 

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Most of these deaths are from infections that surely predated the lockdown. I am not sure why you are conflating the two. There is not necessarily a causation link there. Death is a lagging indicator.

Deaths are a lagging indicator but it seems to lag case patterns by about 2 weeks. It's relevant to say while under lockdown. It looks like they're likely stabilized/plateaud at this 2k/day range. Judging from Italy, we'll likely be in the 1.5k+ range for quite a long time. It's relevant and shows how bad it could get with unrestrained spread. 

[mappy]

Baltimore City requiring everyone to wear masks when outside their homes

i have a feeling Hogan will be pushing the same. DC mayor did the same this morning.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

At no point in a flu season do 2k people die per day. Especially not under lockdown. Do the math on what that would be like with rampant spread, over a long period of time.

If this virus is very contagious and has already infected millions of people, that means herd immunity will hit faster than is usual with respiratory illnesses. There is a belief that this disease spreads much faster than the flu and therefore could burn itself out faster than the flu. Instead of 60-80k deaths over six months, we get them all in 2 months. Hence the "flatten the curve" push to ensure we have adequate hospital resources to ride it out. Looking at raw death numbers is not going to give you a good picture of reality.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

The legal challenges from the states and locals would be hard to overcome in a short period unless Trump went more authoritarian and top-down, which we all know won't be received well at all... He already tried that with opening the economy and was shot down. States will open piecemeal.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If this virus is very contagious and has already infected millions of people, that means herd immunity will hit faster than is usual with respiratory illnesses. There is a belief that this disease spreads much faster than the flu and therefore could burn itself out faster than the flu. Instead of 60-80k deaths over six months, we get them all in 2 months. Hence the "flatten the curve" push to ensure we have adequate hospital resources to ride it out. Looking at raw death numbers is not going to give you a good picture of reality.

Raw deaths give you a perfect picture of reality, it's literally what we are dealing with. Right now, if people are dying en masse while we've started to socially distance and quarantine and isolate, it shows how important it is, as many many many more will die without.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol good luck with that. 

We don't have a lot of options.  As you can see on this board, people are hungry to get back to life and won't be locked down forever.  

[Yeoman]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re points have some validity but you don’t convince anyone by always saying it in the most abrasive obnoxious way possible. You’re worried the gov ability to assist is invalid though since they literally print the money. They can never run out of it. 

You need to take a basic economics course if you think that you can print money endlessly and not have it's value go to zero

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The legal challenges from the states and locals would be hard to overcome in a short period unless Trump went more authoritarian and top-down, which we all know won't be received well at all... He already tried that with opening the economy and was shot down. States will open piecemeal.

Yeah well I think he was shot down because opening up during the peak of an epidemic isn't a good idea.  I think everyone thinks that massively scaling up testing is a good idea, and would be on board.  And also, for the record, I agree with you.  I don't think a lockdown anywhere near another 6 months is feasible.  

[mappy]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

We don't have a lot of options.  As you can see on this board, people are hungry to get back to life and won't be locked down forever.  

I was mostly laughing at the thought of Fed govt actually trying to work with states to open things back up. I get it, the economy needs to get moving soon before things gets worse for many

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Do gang-color bandanas count as facial coverings for this order?

Bandanas are the best right now. You can go post apocalyptic fashion in a great way.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Raw deaths give you a perfect picture of reality, it's literally what we are dealing with. Right now, if people are dying en masse while we've started to socially distance and quarantine and isolate, it shows how important it is, as many many many more will die without.

No, man. It's not a good metric unless you want to be really paranoid and miss the big picture. That's why we don't look at flu deaths per day or viral pneumonia deaths per day or sepsis deaths per day or aneurysm deaths per day. If you looked at that stuff you'd never leave the house. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

No, man. It's not a good metric unless you want to be really paranoid and miss the big picture. That's why we don't look at flu deaths per day or viral pneumonia deaths per day or sepsis deaths per day or aneurysm deaths per day. If you looked at that stuff you'd never leave the house. 

I am sure the public health experts and scientists are well aware at the differences between this and the flu, and are making decisions based on that as a result. I know there are theories out there that "everyone is already mostly immune" and "it's not that deadly" and "it's not that bad" but that's not what the sum evidence and public health experts are saying, and a lot of us personally know people suffering with this disease and nurses on the front lines struggling with PPE so....

[PhineasC]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re points have some validity but you don’t convince anyone by always saying it in the most abrasive obnoxious way possible. You’re worried the gov ability to assist is invalid though since they literally print the money. They can never run out of it. 

We are still OK, but if the govt keeps printing money that will lead to inflation. The coming supply shortages will make that even worse. Devaluing your currency by handing out more of it and then tightening supply is how you get runaway inflation.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

We are still OK, but if the govt keeps printing money that will lead to inflation. The coming supply shortages will make that even worse. Devaluing your currency by handing out more of it and then tightening supply is how you get runaway inflation.

Not necessarily, at least not to the degree you might be thinking, when all countries are doing it at the same time anyway.

This is going to get political though (any discussion of economic theory ultimately does).

[mappy]

Hogan signs EO requiring the wearing of masks when in the community, includes all opened businesses. staff must wear PPE. Order goes into effect Saturday.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

I am sure the public health experts and scientists are well aware at the differences between this and the flu, and are making decisions based on that as a result. I know there are theories out there that "everyone is already mostly immune" and "it's not that deadly" and "it's not that bad" but that's not what the sum evidence and public health experts are saying, and a lot of us personally know people suffering with this disease and nurses on the front lines struggling with PPE so....

They are making decisions based on model data that has been rapidly changing. The early models that showed millions of deaths and a CFR of 10%+ turned out to be way wrong. Now they are reacting to new model data and saying the economy could start to reopen (if certain factors are met). This is like a weather forecast. If the models shift, you move your forecast or end up like Joe Bastardi.

[Chris78]

2018 / 2019 flu season per cdc estimates -

35.5 million cases.

34,000 deaths. 

.09% death rate.

 

Coronavirus to date - 622,973

Deaths - 27,586 

Death rate -  4.48%

 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

They are making decisions based on model data that has been rapidly changing. The early models that showed millions of deaths and a CFR of 10%+ turned out to be way wrong. Now they are reacting to new model data and saying the economy could start to reopen (if certain factors are met). This is like a weather forecast. If the models shift, you move your forecast or end up like Joe Bastardi.

I think a lot of us are looking forward to the economy reopening. I do believe though that the reason we're still seeing extensions of shutdowns and lockdowns are because we don't want to risk wildfire like spread again rendering this lockdown useless. A second lockdown or slowdown because of rapid spread will be worse than a first.

 

I really, really hope governments are working right now on securing as many supplies as possible for whenever they do end the lockdown.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Not necessarily, at least not to the degree you might be thinking, when all countries are doing it at the same time anyway.

This is going to get political though (any discussion of economic theory ultimately does).

All countries doing it will make it even worse. There will be no source of supply to meet the demand and nowhere to use your excess dollars to get any value before inflation wipes out your buying power. It'll suck big time. We are not there yet (timescale too short), but it will start happening eventually.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

2018 / 2019 flu season per cdc estimates -

35.5 million cases.

34,000 deaths. 

.09% death rate.

 

Coronavirus to date - 622,973

Deaths - 27,586 

Death rate -  4.48%

 

Again, these CFR numbers are totally useless and shouldn't even be posted.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

2018 / 2019 flu season per cdc estimates -

35.5 million cases.

34,000 deaths. 

.09% death rate.

 

Coronavirus to date - 622,973

Deaths - 27,586 

Death rate -  4.48%

 

Yup. And flu generally kills 150-200 or so a day, maybe 400 or 500 in the worst flu seasons on the worst days.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, PhineasC said:

All countries doing it will make it even worse. There will be no source of supply to meet the demand and nowhere to use your excess dollars to get any value before inflation wipes out your buying power. It'll suck big time. We are not there yet (timescale too short), but it will start happening eventually.

Eventually yes, inflation will be a concern, but I think we have a long time until it becomes one.

[Chris78]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Again, these CFR numbers are totally useless and shouldn't even be posted.

They will change over time but they are what they are at this point.

[PhineasC]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Yup. And flu generally kills 150-200 or so a day, maybe 400 or 500 in the worst flu seasons on the worst days.

You should look at viral and bacterial pneumonia deaths to get a better picture...

[Yeoman]

Just now, Chris78 said:

2018 / 2019 flu season per cdc estimates -

35.5 million cases.

34,000 deaths. 

.09% death rate.

 

Coronavirus to date - 622,973

Deaths - 27,586 

Death rate -  4.48%

 

If you think there have only been 622K COVID infections to date I have a bridge to sell you. You only get tested if you have strong symptoms or you have connections.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Chris78 said:

They will change over time but they are what they are at this point.

No public servant is using those raw numbers at this point (at least I hope not). It appears most are using the IMHE numbers which show a much better picture.

[40westwx]

Has this lockdown made anyone else think about how just non-essential most of us really are..  everyday I sit on conference calls from like 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM and the only thing that ever happens is people talk.. these conference calls are really only sound boards for people who have absolutely no use to the organizations that they work for.  Everyday, I wonder how is it that my employer actually justifies paying me for what I do.  It really is insane.  

[Chris78]

Just now, Yeoman said:

If you think there have only been 622K COVID infections to date I have a bridge to sell you. You only get tested if you have strong symptoms or you have connections.

Im sure the amount of infections are much higher I agree. But they still wouldnt be in the ball park of influenza.

[Yeoman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You should look at viral and bacterial pneumonia deaths to get a better picture...

Don't forget drug overdoses - kills 70K a year