COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5

thank you! if i'm reading it correctly, doesn't look like many hospitals are at any alert levels?

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

I know MD has started posting cases by zip codes and DC has cases by ward.  Does anyone know if VA has the same info of cases by zip?  I cant find anything other than by health district and county for VA.

doesnt look like VA as a whole has zip-code based information. But you can find information on each county from their health department.

Fairfax: https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/covid19/case-information

 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

doesnt look like VA as a whole has zip-code based information. But you can find information on each county from their health department.

Fairfax: https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/covid19/case-information

 

Thanks!  I have been tracking and checking by county and district and the state VDH webpage has some stuff broken down by demo and age.  Want to drill down more to specifics so might have to wait.  Some things they have done before others as far as posting numbers of people tested.  Some things they are lagging on and zip codes is one of them.

[SnowtoRain]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

thank you! if i'm reading it correctly, doesn't look like many hospitals are at any alert levels?

Nope.  Only three red alerts right now.  Most of the alerts are for emergency room services so those alerts are more transient.  Probably a lot less emergency room stress with less commuters and all social activities being cancelled.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Thanks!  I have been tracking and checking by county and district and the state VDH webpage has some stuff broken down by demo and age.  Want to drill down more to specifics so might have to wait.  Some things they have done before others as far as posting numbers of people tested.  Some things they are lagging on and zip codes is one of them.

yeah Northam needs to get on the state health department to release that data. That's what Hogan did. 

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

Nope.  Only three red alerts right now.  Most of the alerts are for emergency room services so those alerts are more transient.  Probably a lot less emergency room stress with less commuters and all social activities being cancelled.

Oh thats good then. I was looking at the hospitals nearest to me and they all look normal. thats good. 

[North Balti Zen]

31 minutes ago, mappy said:

The Johns Hopkins dashboard now includes county based hospital information, but isn't quite specific enough to get an idea on how strained things are. it lists total numbers, but not what is being used.

I can state anecdotally from friends who are doctors at GBMC, Sinai, and St Agnes that those three hospitals are holding their own and doing okay on capacity. 

[mappy]

okay, thats enough discussion about showme. he made his choice. if you need to talk about it, send him a PM. we aren't going to continue talking about it in this thread. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I can state anecdotally from friends who are doctors at GBMC, Sinai, and St Agnes that those three hospitals are holding their own and doing okay on capacity. 

thanks for sharing and good to know!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like today will follow the trend of spikes in deaths on Tuesdays presumably because of catching up on weekend reporting.  NJ with 362 new deaths which I believe is their highest, Louisiana with 129 which might be their highest, and NY back up near its peak with 778.  If Italy/Spain have shown us anything it’s that it takes a lot of time for the number of deaths to come down.  Just a terrible loss of life when you really think about the fact that all those numbers were mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, spouses, etc. 

[40westwx]

Regardless of any discussion or debate on what the numbers actually mean..  I think we may have gotten over the hump.. US.. Daily Cases

 

[Inverted_Trough]

today might be the worst day in terms of death counts.  might be due to lags in reporting.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

today might be the worst day in terms of death counts.  might be due to lags in reporting.

Yeah some pretty high death cases coming out today.

[40westwx]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

today might be the worst day in terms of death counts.  might be due to lags in reporting.

I think we are in for several days of increasing death numbers.. if the graph above is indicative of a decline in new cases.. then deaths will decrease about 5-7 days after 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, 40westwx said:

I think we are in for several days of increasing death numbers.. if the graph above is indicative of a decline in new cases.. then deaths will decrease about 5-7 days after 

Hopefully. I think we'll see a slow, gradual decline for a month or two. Italy has been declining though they are still at 60% of their peak. It takes a while of social distancing to keep the decline down.

 

Doesn't take much for it to shoot back up though.

[40westwx]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Hopefully. I think we'll see a slow, gradual decline for a month or two. Italy has been declining though they are still at 60% of their peak. It takes a while of social distancing to keep the decline down.

 

Doesn't take much for it to shoot back up though.

If you look at the quintessential flatten the curve graphic.. there is one down side to flattening the curve.. and that is that it is a slower decline on the other side.

No one brings this up.. but it is math.. and it is true... the benefit that you get from flattening the curve is that you theoretically could reduce the number of deaths due to  limiting the strain on healthcare infrastructure.  But you cannot reduce the total number of cases.. nature can only dictate that.  

So in other words.. the area in the blue is equal to the area in the red.  

We would most likely experience a much slower decline in cases than we would have theoretically experience if we did the riskier "without proactive measures" approach.  

You actually see that play out in South Korea and China where they instituted social distancing after they peaked...   

 

[Inverted_Trough]

In terms of daily positive cases, I suspect that the counts are based on when the test results are received.  While some of these tests come back within a day, many of these tests take several days to come back.  I think the positive counts should be attributed to the date the test was taken.  Then, perhaps you'll see a true 'curve'.  I suspect the "plateau-effect" we see on these curves are in part due to lagged reporting, so in reality we could be in a downturn but the curve looks like a plateau because of the lag.

[40westwx]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

In terms of daily positive cases, I suspect that the counts are based on when the test results are received.  While some of these tests come back within a day, many of these tests take several days to come back.  I think the positive counts should be attributed to the date the test was taken.  Then, perhaps you'll see a true 'curve'.  I suspect the "plateau-effect" we see on these curves are in part due to lagged reporting, so in reality we could be in a downturn but the curve looks like a plateau because of the lag.

That is a really good point.  Johns Hopkins has a github of there raw data.. a bunch of csv files.. maybe the answer to what date is being reported is in that data.. 

 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

In terms of daily positive cases, I suspect that the counts are based on when the test results are received.  While some of these tests come back within a day, many of these tests take several days to come back.  I think the positive counts should be attributed to the date the test was taken.  Then, perhaps you'll see a true 'curve'.  I suspect the "plateau-effect" we see on these curves are in part due to lagged reporting, so in reality we could be in a downturn but the curve looks like a plateau because of the lag.

 is that data available?

[mappy]

MD DOH tweeted out a full list of all 40 who died yesterday. where they were from and their ages

you will have to click the tweet to see the full list

but: 35 out of the 40 were 60+ of age and up. 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, 40westwx said:

If you look at the quintessential flatten the curve graphic.. there is one down side to flattening the curve.. and that is that it is a slower decline on the other side.

No one brings this up.. but it is math.. and it is true... the benefit that you get from flattening the curve is that you theoretically could reduce the number of deaths due to  limiting the strain on healthcare infrastructure.  But you cannot reduce the total number of cases.. nature can only dictate that.  

So in other words.. the area in the blue is equal to the area in the red.  

We would most likely experience a much slower decline in cases than we would have theoretically experience if we did the riskier "without proactive measures" approach.  

You actually see that play out in South Korea and China where they instituted social distancing after they peaked...   

 

It doesn't help that we also staggered the shelter in places. The plateau, I anticipate, will last as long or longer than Italy's. And that's if we stay locked down. If we reopen, who knows. I think a second lockdown would hurt worse than a first.

[aldie 22]

California extended lockdown till mid May at the earliest. I honestly think May is toast and June 1st will end up being the target. We will just have to rely on Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota to carry the economy in May...oh and the WWE in Florida 

[ErinInTheSky]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

California extended lockdown till mid May at the earliest. I honestly think May is toast and June 1st will end up being the target. We will just have to rely on Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota to carry the economy in May...oh and the WWE in Florida 

I honestly do think, if we do everything right, June 1st is a good date to aim for:

- Summer, which should lower transmissible some. Not a lot, it still easily seems to transmit in Southern States, but once we get real heat, it will help.

- Gives us a long time to develop production of PPE, sanitizing chemicals, etc.

- Gives us a long time to stockpile tests and hire people for contact tracing.

- Schools are out anyway so no need to worry about schools.

 

I don't think we'll see mass gatherings return until 2021 though. Sports with spectators in the stands are probably toast.

[SnowGolfBro]

12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

California extended lockdown till mid May at the earliest. I honestly think May is toast and June 1st will end up being the target. We will just have to rely on Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota to carry the economy in May...oh and the WWE in Florida 

I like May 1st as a target for Midwest states and some southern states.  Places like NYC, New Orleans, Detroit may be looking at June 1 or later.  The mid Atlantic I’d put somewhere in between May 1 and June 1.  It’s kind of like long range weather predictions.  So many variables.  Who knows what May 1 will look like a week from now.  Could be more promising in a lot of places or not.  

[ErinInTheSky]

1,946 deaths and several states haven't reported yet. Today is going to be the deadliest day. :-/

[Vice-Regent]

10 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

1,946 deaths and several states haven't reported yet. Today is going to be the deadliest day. :-/

We could do the China thing and lie to the world about the situation so we can offshore suffering somewhere else while we rake in money. I am tired of dealing with this man. We need like a full-spectrum reorganization of society. Complete UBI and 100% Telecommute. Automation can manage our food supply. Some call this luxury space communism but I call it survival for the greater good.

[ErinInTheSky]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

We could do the China thing and lie to the world about the situation so we can offshore suffering somewhere else while we rake in money. I am tired of dealing with this man. We need like a full-spectrum reorganization of society. Complete UBI and 100% Telecommute. Automation can manage our food supply. Some call this luxury space communism but I call it survival for the greater good.

Agreed but unfortunately that discussion will bet political.

[mappy]

Baltimore county folks: dashboard for the county is now available 

https://bc-gis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/5749f2fc87944d54ba58d61c93a86c3c

[mappy]

Baltimore county up close, interesting patterns of where cases are and aren’t.

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

We could do the China thing and lie to the world about the situation so we can offshore suffering somewhere else while we rake in money. I am tired of dealing with this man. We need like a full-spectrum reorganization of society. Complete UBI and 100% Telecommute. Automation can manage our food supply. Some call this luxury space communism but I call it survival for the greater good.

   The most ridiculous thing I've read yet..

You guys have lost it..

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

We could do the China thing and lie to the world about the situation so we can offshore suffering somewhere else while we rake in money. I am tired of dealing with this man. We need like a full-spectrum reorganization of society. Complete UBI and 100% Telecommute. Automation can manage our food supply. Some call this luxury space communism but I call it survival for the greater good.

Respiratory illness generally eradicate themselves after 80% of the population has reached immunity. This a the "breaking point" where the virus can no longer find a susceptible host and spread faster than the rate in which people either recover or die.  China had the benefit sufficiently spreading the virus before policy makers panicked in to lock down.. 

Thinking that something different happened in china is sorta like buying in to conspiracy theory and denying science.  We have no reason to believe that this virus will act different from other corona viruses.  The only apparent difference, and we are seeing it play out now, is that there will be a higher fatality rate because the elderly and at risk population have zero immunity.  

Birx and Fauci tried to tell everyone this back in March.. then sh$t load of people started dying in NYC and they had no other choice but to go the policy route.