COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I have said from day 1 that this virus has been far more widespread then the models and the authorities have been aware of. Reports now starting to come out are supporting this. But that aside, I never said things were fine and dandy all I am doing is comparing what we are seeing now compared to peak and nothing more.

I hope you’re right! It’s been a while since we instituted the social distancing so hopefully the numbers are indeed peaking.  

[Wonderdog]

Apparently, it's possible that the virus was running through CA in December. Are there any figures for CA to support this?

[showmethesnow]

55 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I hope you’re right! It’s been a while since we instituted the social distancing so hopefully the numbers are indeed peaking.  

 I am pretty sure the nation as a whole is well past the peak infection rates. (I really don't think it is wise to use tested results to get a gauge on that).

I have been mentioning a timescale (as of now 3-5 weeks max seven) for several weeks now on when we as a nation as a whole would start seeing a relaxation of the mitigations in place and a movement to a more normal life and it hasn't for the most part changed. Of course different regions, States will have different timescales depending on multiple factors. But I did mention that I thought with the social distancing and how I thought that might impact things there was the possibility we might see a slower ebbing (slower decrease of infection rates) on the backside of the curve. And in fact it looks as if we are seeing this. So in consideration of that I am now starting to favor more towards week 5 vs 3. By week 5, by my projections, we are seeing a 17% infection rate* vs. peak which is within my thoughts of where we need to be (10-20%) to be able to somewhat easily contain any further infections, Of course this will be heavily dependent on having a readily available supply of Johnny on the spot testing that can get results fairly quickly. If we are dependent on lab testing this will make it more difficult to control new infections so we will need to see a lower infection rate/later startup date.

So at this point I am thinking a startup back to normalcy on avg in the nation (as well as our region) roughly in the 2nd/3rd week of May. 

*(Using %s here but what I am really looking at is getting the daily totals nation wide at a bare minimum of under 500 cases a day)

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Apparently, it's possible that the virus was running through CA in December. Are there any figures for CA to support this?

There has been very little doubt in my mind for a couple months now that we were seeing cases in the States mid to late December. Just about everything I was seeing was arguing for this.

[aldie 22]

I guess I'm stupid but all of this seems like a logical progression as more data comes in and more compliance takes place. To call something wrong for an initial suggestion and then to continue to say it's wrong as it adjusts with new information is odd to my stiff brain. The only error I see is broadcasting the numbers out without being explicit they will change daily. Sadly everyone was Ji on this one and thought 3' of snow coming in a month the Euro ensemble said so.

[RDM]

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I have said from day 1 that this virus has been far more widespread then the models and the authorities have been aware of. Reports now starting to come out are supporting this. But that aside, I never said things were fine and dandy all I am doing is comparing what we are seeing now compared to peak and nothing more.

No question there.  The only confirmed cases are those based on testing, which is only being applied to a small fraction of the population in every country.  However, even if we were to test the entire population of the planet at one moment in time, that would only be an objective indicator for that exact moment.  People could still become infected in the following minutes, hours and days through proximity contamination or non-contact transmission w/o direct contact with other people.  

Widespread testing would provide more data for the experts to use in analyzing the projected spread and where to deploy resources.  However, the data has dependencies and will continue to be subjective so long as the virus remains asymptomatic in people who are positive carriers and capable of infecting others w/o knowing it (and because they are asymptomatic are not tested).  

What helps make the data more useful and objective is where robust analysis is applied to determine where a positive carrier has been and potentially infected others (again, without potentially knowing it).  It's resource intensive, but if applied aggressively data analytics can amplify the relevance of any testing.  So I'm certainly not saying to not test.  It's just important to keep testing in perspective while applying ample analysis to squeeze as much out of each positive test as possible.  Have to guess, the resources are not available to apply analytics as much as desired in all cases.

Learned a lot about COVID from our daughter who is working shifts at the INOVA COVID field test sites.  We're proud of her for being a trooper and working on the front lines knowing she is coming in contact with carriers daily.  However, all of the people they test are symptomatic in one form or another.  They need a referral from their doctor to get an appointment to get tested.  We have a mitigation plan here at home, but my wife and I are likely at risk too.  So far we're fine but have self quarantined as a precaution.  We've not left our property for over a month.        

Too bad those who are positive don't turn purple so that everyone will know they are purple, including the individual themselves.  aka Willie Wonka - or potentially myself.  If I'm a carrier I want to know.  

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There has been very little doubt in my mind for a couple months now that we were seeing cases in the States mid to late December. Just about everything I was seeing was arguing for this.

Maybe but then why didn’t we see what happened in China in other places until much later?  

[ErinInTheSky]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe but then why didn’t we see what happened in China in other places until much later?  

Because it likely wasn't.

 

There's no solid evidence of the virus existing in the US much longer before the first official cases. Most of the "reports" are to .cn sites, basically trying to pass off that they weren't responsible and that it emerged somewhere else. There's a lot of disinfo out there.

 

There is a report of a doctor who had flu in January who recently tested serologically for COVID antibodies, but it's more likely that he was later exposed, being a doctor.

[showmethesnow]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe but then why didn’t we see what happened in China in other places until much later?  

Because what we think we saw in China, or more accurately what China was telling us and WHO, were for the most part lies. Becoming much more evident  as time passes and more collaborating information comes out from secondary sources that China was dealing with and aware of this well before they are willing to acknowledge. 

You can also look at how we saw the initial stages of the breakout evolve as well as the locations to get a sense that we were in fact at the beginning stages of community spread here in the US. This same evolution was evident as well in some other countries that I looked at as well. Really very little doubt in my mind at this time that China was dealing with this as early as late Nov/Early Dec and we were getting international travelers already spreading it to the far corners of the globe.

eta: I don't know what can be more telling then looking at the growth rate that we saw in China after their first acknowledgement. The rapid explosion we saw was far more indicative of a virus that was well into it's growth rate indicating a much earlier onset.

[Wonderdog]

27 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Because it likely wasn't.

 

There's no solid evidence of the virus existing in the US much longer before the first official cases. Most of the "reports" are to .cn sites, basically trying to pass off that they weren't responsible and that it emerged somewhere else. There's a lot of disinfo out there.

 

There is a report of a doctor who had flu in January who recently tested serologically for COVID antibodies, but it's more likely that he was later exposed, being a doctor.

If you're asymptomatic,  you're right, no evidence but if you've had symptoms and passed it off as the flu then you need to be tested for sure.

[mappy]

This is good. Zip-code level data will definitely give a better picture on how wide spread the virus is 

 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is good. Zip-code level data will definitely give a better picture on how wide spread the virus is 

 

How good has MD been with posting information as far as spread in the smaller communities? I know up here it has been very spotting and that is putting it politely. About the best gauge we have to get an idea of what Hanover is experiencing is to look at the total cases county wide which really doesn't tell us much at all.

[Inverted_Trough]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe but then why didn’t we see what happened in China in other places until much later?  

Because there is very little data and evidence to support this assertion.  It doesn't mean it's not possible, but it's a hypothesis based on assumption and beliefs.  Assumption and beliefs are shaped by politics.  And that's where this discussion starts getting political which I'm sure is what most people want to avoid.    

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow I have no doubt the episode began in China prior to their reports. What I meant is we didn’t see that type of spread here that we likely would have absent any measures at all to contain in December. When this hit various areas it wasn’t something that went undetected. China then Iran, Italy, Spain, NYC...places this hit before they were ready to contain it spread rapidly and was easily apparent something was wrong. I haven’t seen evidence of that kind of thing here back in December. 

[snowfan]

Silver Spring and parts of PG Co coming in as the big hot spots per the zip level data. A few other spots in balt city and the zip where the mt airy facility is located included.

[snowfan]

[snowfan]

Re the MD numbers, I'd be very cautious about seeing the decline in new positive cases as a positive. Holiday weekend may limit some return on results. And, there was still a net positive of 126 new hospitalizations.....151 in, 26 out. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Re the MD numbers, I'd be very cautious about seeing the decline in new positive cases as a positive. Holiday weekend may limit some return on results. And, there was still a net positive of 126 new hospitalizations.....151 in, 26 out. 

Additionally, they only ran ~2,500 tests yesterday with around 20% positive which is pretty high. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow I have no doubt the episode began in China prior to their reports. What I meant is we didn’t see that type of spread here that we likely would have absent any measures at all to contain in December. When this hit various areas it wasn’t something that went undetected. China then Iran, Italy, Spain, NYC...places this hit before they were ready to contain it spread rapidly and was easily apparent something was wrong. I haven’t seen evidence of that kind of thing here back in December. 

Kind of lost on what you are saying. But I will try to answer as best I can with what I think you are saying. As far as what seems to be an earlier initial onset of the virus in these various countries vs. the US that pretty much has to do with the fact they were getting a much heavier concentration of coronavirus flying in vs. what the States were receiving. This resulted in a quicker initial intensification of cases as to where it was obvious more quickly that the coronavirus was within the country. 

Really, the best way to get an understanding of when we did start seeing the establishment of the virus in the States we need to get an idea of when China in fact started seeing community spread within their own country. That is the point the world started seeing the spread as well. China has not been forthcoming whatsoever in that regard. But secondary sources leaking out, and only have been increasing and collaborative, are pretty much establishing that China was dealing this well before they are willing to acknowledge. You can actually look at other sources as well (community services, commodity use, travel, etc...) to give you a timeline as well. Now maybe I am wrong here, but as more time passes and the case builds for my conclusion I am becoming more and more confident on my thoughts.

[mappy]

58 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

How good has MD been with posting information as far as spread in the smaller communities? I know up here it has been very spotting and that is putting it politely. About the best gauge we have to get an idea of what Hanover is experiencing is to look at the total cases county wide which really doesn't tell us much at all.

We haven’t had data down beyond county level. Haven’t looked at what was released yet today, need to get some work done (yay) will look as soon as I can 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, mappy said:

We haven’t had data down beyond county level. Haven’t looked at what was released yet today, need to get some work done (yay) will look as soon as I can 

Don't go out of your way. Enjoy your Easter. Happy EASTER!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Kind of lost on what you are saying. But I will try to answer as best I can with what I think you are saying. As far as what seems to be an earlier initial onset of the virus in these various countries vs. the US that pretty much has to do with the fact they were getting a much heavier concentration of coronavirus flying in vs. what the States were receiving. This resulted in a quicker initial intensification of cases as to where it was obvious more quickly that the coronavirus was within the country. 

Really, the best way to get an understanding of when we did start seeing the establishment of the virus in the States we need to get an idea of when China in fact started seeing community spread within their own country. That is the point the world started seeing the spread as well. China has not been forthcoming whatsoever in that regard. But secondary sources leaking out, and only have been increasing and collaborative, are pretty much establishing that China was dealing this well before they are willing to acknowledge. You can actually look at other sources as well (community services, commodity use, travel, etc...) to give you a timeline as well. Now maybe I am wrong here, but as more time passes and the case builds for my conclusion I am becoming more and more confident on my thoughts.

I don’t think this is true.  It takes time for travelers to deliver the virus, and then it takes time for those sparks to turn into fires.  Some of the sparks die out.  

[ErinInTheSky]

22 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Re the MD numbers, I'd be very cautious about seeing the decline in new positive cases as a positive. Holiday weekend may limit some return on results. And, there was still a net positive of 126 new hospitalizations.....151 in, 26 out. 

Declines are probably real. We've been under social distancing measures for a long time.

But a decline is not necessarily a crashing of the curve, looking at other countries like Italy and looking at places like Wuhan, we're probably going to be at the 500-750 cases/day for a long time while locked down.

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow sorry what I was trying to say was that I am skeptical of the virus being here in December because with absolutely no containment measures in place it likely would have spread rapidly out of control then. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Look at Italy. They have been under lockdown since the curve started going upward. They got their new cases under control but like... it's not fallen that dramatically since then.

 

The only country to have gotten the outbreak fixed AFTER rapid spread has been China. They saw the same pattern. They saw that they could flatten the curve, but they could not eliminate it without their draconian lockdown measures.

 

 

Countries that aren't willing to use draconian measures are probably going to be stuck in lockdown, or forced to exit lockdown and unrestrained spread commences.

[showmethesnow]

41 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t think this is true.  It takes time for travelers to deliver the virus, and then it takes time for those sparks to turn into fires.  Some of the sparks die out.  

 

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow sorry what I was trying to say was that I am skeptical of the virus being here in December because with absolutely no containment measures in place it likely would have spread rapidly out of control then. 

A virus doesn't just explode from day one, that happens well into the life cycle of the virus. The initial stages themselves are very slow to multiple. So scattered initial cases will take several weeks to get to a point that it might start getting on the radar especially when you are not getting any heads up. Also when you are talking 80% with little to no symptoms and 50% with no symptoms at all it makes it even that more difficult. It really is all about the numbers after all.

eta: And as far as your Italy (as well as other EU countries) comparison that is why I mentioned the much higher rate of cases streaming in, in the early days compared to the US. They were probably seeing rates far above what we saw in the States.

 

[jaydreb]

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

A virus doesn't just explode from day one, that happens well into the life cycle of the virus. The initial stages themselves are very slow to multiple. So scattered initial cases will take several weeks to get to a point that it might start getting on the radar especially when you are not getting any heads up. Also when you are talking 80% with little to no symptoms and 50% with no symptoms at all it makes it even that more difficult. It really is all about the numbers after all.

eta: And as far as your Italy (as well as other EU countries) comparison that is why I mentioned the much higher rate of cases streaming in, in the early days compared to the US. They were probably seeing rates far above what we saw in the States.

 

Where are you seeing 50% have no symptoms at all?  I don’t think that number has been determined yet.   

[mappy]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't go out of your way. Enjoy your Easter. Happy EASTER!!!

Thank you! Happy Easter to you as well.

I took a gander at what MD put out today, and I'm not overly surprised by what I see. More populated zip-codes have the higher case counts. Zip-codes around DC and Baltimore in particular. 

My zip code has 0, which is reassuring. 

I'm glad they released that type of data, just gives a better sense geographically where the spread has been.

[ErinInTheSky]

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Where are you seeing 50% have no symptoms at all?  I don’t think that number has been determined yet.   

It hasn't. There are so many different reports out there and I've seen everything from 10% to 95% lol. There's no peer reviewed journal that can conclusively say what the asymptomatic rate is yet.

[ErinInTheSky]

The Diamond Princess is probably the best data we have because it was a perfect pitri dish and it showed an 18% asymptomatic rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/32183930