COVID-19 Talk

[showmethesnow]

49 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t find this line of reasoning compelling.  My wife and kids and I are in close contact regardless of quarantine.  The important factor that changes with social distancing is contact with people beyond my immediate family. 

You are attributing your family unit to others. Do you have teens that basically live outside their household 90% of the time. Do you or your spouse engage in interests that differ so many times you are out and about engaging in those activities? Do you both work different jobs outside of the house? I think you would be surprised how much time you all in fact spend elsewhere instead of with your family. But then again, maybe you do spend 95% of your time with your family. I don't know. But it wouldn't be representative of a typical family if that was the case.

 

[snowfan]

Let's not over think and write too much about it.....if taken into practice as suggested, social distancing would help limit spread between families. Pretty much all guidance right now is for folks to limit interaction w people outside their immediate household unless absolutely necessary.

[snowfan]

726 new cases and 35 new deaths in md in the last 24 hrs.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You are attributing your family unit to others. Do you have teens that basically live outside their household 90% of the time. Do you or your spouse engage in interests that differ so many times you are out and about engaging in those activities? Do you both work different jobs outside of the house? I think you would be surprised how much time you all in fact spend elsewhere instead of with your family. But then again, maybe you do spend 95% of your time with your family. I don't know. But it wouldn't be representative of a typical family if that was the case.

 

I think the difference in infection spread caused by reducing contact with others vs any increased contact with your family is several orders of magnitude. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

726 new cases and 35 new deaths in md in the last 24 hrs.

I dunno if anyone’s been keeping track but also +296 hospitalizations.  Is that the highest one day addition yet?

[Inverted_Trough]

Wow, now we're arguing about whether social distancing works.  Next we will argue about whether gravity is real or just a philosophical principle

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Let's not over think and write too much about it.....if taken into practice as suggested, social distancing would help limit spread between families. Pretty much all guidance right now is for folks to limit interaction w people outside their immediate household unless absolutely necessary.

I don't disagree with this. I just brought up the fact that I believed that there is probably diminishing returns the higher the infection rate is when social distancing is first instituted. I also questioned where there might be a point that the infection rate was so great that it could possibly have negative impacts. After all this isn't some simple A+B=C equation. It is more like a complex mathematical equation that can possible bring up some surprising numbers that would seem counter intuitive.

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, snowfan said:

726 new cases and 35 new deaths in md in the last 24 hrs.

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I don't disagree with this. I just brought up the fact that I believed that there is probably diminishing returns the higher the infection rate is when social distancing is first instituted. I also questioned where there might be a point that the infection rate was so great that it could possibly have negative impacts. After all this isn't some simple A+B=C equation. It is more like a complex mathematical equation that can possible bring up some surprising numbers that would seem counter intuitive.

It seems like you’re overthinking it.  It kind of is pretty simple.  Reduce human contact to reduce spread.  

[snowfan]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It seems like you’re overthinking it.  It kind of is pretty simple.  Reduce human contact to reduce spread.  

Agreed x 10. There is no need to overthink this.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I dunno if anyone’s been keeping track but also +296 hospitalizations.  Is that the highest one day addition yet?

I’ve been keeping track for weeks and yes, I think so. Few +100 in the last week but nothing above 200

 

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Their site is out of synch w the real numbers. Deaths is now up to 206. Looks like they updated the +35 part, but the 171 was friday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mappy said:

I’ve been keeping track for weeks and yes, I think so. Few +100 in the last week but nothing above 200

 

I imagine the strain on our hospital system must be becoming noticeable now.  That’s a lot of people to add in one day. 

[mappy]

Just now, snowfan said:

Their site is out of synch w the real numbers. Deaths is now up to 206. Looks like they updated the +35 part, but the 171 was friday.

Yeah the website is updated now. Thanks for pointing that out  

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I imagine the strain on our hospital system must be becoming noticeable now.  That’s a lot of people to add in one day. 

Maybe but we don’t know where those people are and what hospital. 

[snowfan]

PG Co seems to be the unknown hotspot in the country. By tomorrow I imagine theyll be teetering on 2,000 cases and 60 deaths. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Their site is out of synch w the real numbers. Deaths is now up to 206. Looks like they updated the +35 part, but the 171 was friday.

I updated my post with the correct image 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

PG Co seems to be the unknown hotspot in the country. By tomorrow I imagine theyll be teetering on 2,000 cases and 60 deaths. 

I’d really like to see zipcode data on this.  If the poorer parts of PG adjacent to SE DC are a hot spot and that bleeds into SE DC that could be a public health nightmare. 

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It seems like you’re overthinking it.  It kind of is pretty simple.  Reduce human contact to reduce spread.  

 

18 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Agreed x 10. There is no need to overthink this.

Ok, Fine.  I wasn't really trying to make an issue of this because I highly doubt this would come into play with our current situation. The infection rates needed to see this possibly come into play are probably 50% if not 75+%. That is if it even did. The only reason I mentioned was just to get a little intellectual play with the idea. Guess that really didn't work out the way I thought it would.

eta: And no, I wasn't trying to make an argument for seeing a quicker timetable on starting the economy back up if that is what you thought.

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Ok, Fine.  I wasn't really trying to make an issue of this because I highly doubt this would come into play with our current situation. The infection rates needed to see this possibly come into play are probably 50% if not 75+%. That is if it even did. The only reason I mentioned was just to get a little intellectual play with the idea. Guess that really didn't work out the way I thought it would.

eta: And no, I wasn't trying to make an argument for seeing a quicker timetable on starting the economy back up if that is what you thought.

Why shouldn’t we be looking for a way to start the economy back up as soon as possible?  Do we want 10s of millions of people to be without jobs waiting in bread lines?  If you are old or have a comorbidity you need to take precautions as you see fit.  If you are young and otherwise healthy, keep washing your hands maintaining distance from others where reasonable and wear a mask if necessary.  People will not continue to go blindly along with destroying their lives.  #openitup!

[SnowtoRain]

22 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I imagine the strain on our hospital system must be becoming noticeable now.  That’s a lot of people to add in one day. 

The MIEMSS CHATS system gives some indication of hospital strain, mostly with emergency room availability, but red alert deals with all ECG monitored beds:

www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5

A few hospitals in PG and Moco area have been on red alert for the past week.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Why shouldn’t we be looking for a way to start the economy back up as soon as possible?  Do we want 10s of millions of people to be without jobs waiting in bread lines?  If you are old or have a comorbidity you need to take precautions as you see fit.  If you are young and otherwise healthy, keep washing your hands maintaining distance from others where reasonable and wear a mask if necessary.  People will not continue to go blindly along with destroying their lives.  #openitup!

Of course everyone wants to open it up ASAP, the question is how to do that while minimizing loss of life.  Since your post doesn’t address this issue in a meaningful way it’s hard to engage with you. 

[showmethesnow]

22 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Why shouldn’t we be looking for a way to start the economy back up as soon as possible?  Do we want 10s of millions of people to be without jobs waiting in bread lines?  If you are old or have a comorbidity you need to take precautions as you see fit.  If you are young and otherwise healthy, keep washing your hands maintaining distance from others where reasonable and wear a mask if necessary.  People will not continue to go blindly along with destroying their lives.  #openitup!

Oh, I can think of plenty of reasons we should start up the economy sooner rather then later. You can go to the top of page 21 and read my thoughts in that regards. But the above idea isn't one of them and it wasn't being presented as so.

[KamuSnow]

13 hours ago, snowfan said:

Normal is gonna take awhile. Folks need to start mentally preparing for no pool season this year. And, looking ahead to the fall.....I'm a penn st season ticket holder for football....I dont know htf they're going to have gatherings w 100k+ people. And, I can assure you that no CFB would be crippling for a lot of college towns. Idk what the solution is unless the season is simply delayed til later in the fall or held in the spring of '21, but that's a logistical nightmare.

No CFB would also be crippling to lots of lower level scholarship sports that are funded by football and basketball revenue. The impacts are wide reaching and in a lot of not so obvious ways.

Probably far fetched, but real time testing like a walk through bioscanner would help. Also, a breathalyzer type test would be useful. A coronalyzer. If you pass, you're in. There'd be some long lines, but it could work.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So.... Are we now going to go full blown political? Just asking so as I know whether I need to switch to attack mode. 

I wasn’t sure if that was allowed or not. If the mods don’t want politics in here I’m happy to oblige, but it’s hard to separate covid from politics. 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I wasn’t sure if that was allowed or not. If the mods don’t want politics in here I’m happy to oblige, but it’s hard to separate covid from politics. 

I know. It is hard. But since we did start a thread I have been for the most part impressed that it has stayed for the most part apolitical. Would like to keep it that way. It is a topic of interest after all.

[ErinInTheSky]

The funny thing is we are all dancing around the politics here but you can totally tell someone’s political affiliation by seeing how they are treating the pandemic. That... shouldn’t be the case when it comes to science.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

With all due respect, this comment is perhaps the biggest load of BS I’ve read to date from someone who’s posts I’ve always enjoyed reading.  I wasn’t even making a political argument. This is anecdotal but it’s relevant.  My sister is Nurse Practitioner in California, also a lifelong Liberal.  She said that we have completely blown this out of proportion.  And unbelievably she said she might consider voting for Donald Trump because he is the only person that seems willing to get us back to normal.  

I’m just getting tired of the framing of this debate I see from right wing media.  Of course you’re free to think my ideas are a load of BS and I’d be happy to hear about why if you want to explain. 

[ErinInTheSky]

DCteacherman’s comment went pretty far into politics and @DCTeacherman it’s generally not allowed here. That said I’m not going to get in an uproar myself over it because tbh, we have been talking politics this entire time just with innuendo.

[NorthArlington101]

The funny thing is we are all dancing around the politics here but you can totally tell someone’s political affiliation by seeing how they are treating the pandemic. That... shouldn’t be the case when it comes to science.

Yeah, I tried to subtly make that point yesterday. This is a partisan issue. Had to write a whole paper about it for my News Media class. There isn’t really a way around it. That said, I prefer it when we keep it implicit and subtle! Makes the slight disses more fun.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I tried to subtly make that point yesterday. This is a partisan issue. Had to write a whole paper about it for my News Media class. There isn’t really a way around it. That said, I prefer it when we keep it implicit and subtle! Makes the slight disses more fun.

When facts become political it’s hard to avoid politics unfortunately.