COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We can dodge the issue, but ultimately what people are debating is whether they think this virus is genuinely scary enough to shut things down for. Research has shown that opinions on the severity of the virus are a partisan issue, and ultimately that's unlikely to change. While I find this debate fun, we all know its not going anywhere!

this is a good point. some may feel they are healthy enough that its worth the risk. others, like myself, dont' even want to chance it. 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

sorry, you'll have to bear with me. my scientific brain can only handle so many hypothetical situations that will never happen to compare this virus to

it’s the law of unintended consequences.  If u just look at the lives saved by enacting a policy (any policy you think will save lives) but fail to understand the unrelated consequences, you end up in the situation we are in today.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

and my 401(k) is in the tank like everyone else's.  But the long term viability of my 401(k) is based on not allowing this to happen again.  So I favor a slow, phased approach.  It is what it is.

Mine is not, because I decided a while back that the risk (fall of an all-time high market) was not worth the reward for me, so I went into stable value funds.  But, I am concerned for every one else that may face an uncertain future.  I'm using this as an opportunity to begin buying shares in stock funds again, although my company just suspended matching funds until the end of the year.  I'm lucky so far; I still have a job, but I'm sure bonuses for this year are gone.

 

5 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I should have clarified:  If car accidents were contagious and nobody had immunity, we had no treatments or a vaccine - and because of that, it would grow exponentially - would anyone drive?

Better.   Well, what is the mortality rate in your hypothetical scenario?

[SnowGolfBro]

15 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

if car accidents were contagious, would anyone drive?

It’s much worse.  They are random and injure indiscriminately.  At least the virus tends to disproportionately affect the elderly and the infirmed.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

it’s the law of unintended consequences.  If u just look at the lives saved by enacting a policy (any policy you think will save lives) but fail to understand the unrelated consequences, you end up in the situation we are in today.  

youll have to be more specific on what situation you are referring too

[H2O]

Keep the politics out of this please. I know it’s a bit intertwined but the discussion today has been mostly free from it

[SnowGolfBro]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

youll have to be more specific on what situation you are referring too

We have shut down society in an effort to save lives.  Certainly a noble undertaking on the surface.  We can reasonably assume that the virus will not spread as fast or as widely under the stay at home orders (but it will still spread because people are going to get food, medicine etc).  So I’m not arguing that the policies in place currently aren’t helping some people avoid getting the virus and keeping others from dying from the virus.  I am arguing that the unintended consequences these decisions are causing are getting exponentially worse and longer lasting everyday.  It’s a brutal situation.  Not an easy answer in my opinion.  But we need to have an open conversation about mortality from a virus vs our way of life in the short and long term.  

[Inverted_Trough]

16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Better.   Well, what is the mortality rate in your hypothetical scenario?

Not sure.  But, for your reference, car accidents have about a 0.6% mortality rate and are not contagious.

[Eskimo Joe]

Big oof and this number only includes those who died in a hospital.

 

[ErinInTheSky]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

this is a good point. some may feel they are healthy enough that its worth the risk. others, like myself, dont' even want to chance it. 

The crappy thing is, it isn't just risking themselves, it's risking all of us.

 

Not just with the virus, but by removing the ability to seek medical care.

 

Again... I have a surgery I really need done. It's postponed until further notice... :-/ What about when my dad needs a stent again in his heart? What about my diabetic friends? what about the grandma that has a fall?

[Inverted_Trough]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Big oof

 

UK initially tried the 'herd immunity' approach.  That strategy didn't last very long but now their death counts are the highest in Europe right now.

Sweden is also trying a laissez-faire approach (though large crowds are still banned but restaurants/bars are open).  Their death count is eight times higher than neighboring Norway.  Will Sweden's GDP growth be higher than Norway's this month?  Maybe.  But maybe not.  Was that worth it?  That's up to their society.

In this country, I think 85% favor saving lives over saving GDP. based on recent polling  Obviously most Americans believe we are doing the right thing (albeit much, much later than we should have)

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

The crappy thing is, it isn't just risking themselves, it's risking all of us.

 

Not just with the virus, but by removing the ability to seek medical care.

 

Again... I have a surgery I really need done. It's postponed until further notice... :-/ What about when my dad needs a stent again in his heart? What about my diabetic friends? what about the grandma that has a fall?

This is what makes this situation so diabolical.  Your situation is frightening and i genuinely feel your pain.  My brother is a restaurant manager.  His life has been upended.  He is depressed, out of work and no idea if or when he will be able to provide for himself.  So extrapolate your issues to the macro level.  And extrapolate my brothers issues to the macro level.  And we can see the struggle that is taking shape is encompassed in these two examples.  Damn tough situation.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

We have shut down society in an effort to save lives.  Certainly a noble undertaking on the surface.  We can reasonably assume that the virus will not spread as fast or as widely under the stay at home orders (but it will still spread because people are going to get food, medicine etc).  So I’m not arguing that the policies in place currently aren’t helping some people avoid getting the virus and keeping others from dying from the virus.  I am arguing that the unintended consequences these decisions are causing are getting exponentially worse and longer lasting everyday.  It’s a brutal situation.  Not an easy answer in my opinion.  But we need to have an open conversation about mortality from a virus vs our way of life in the short and long term.  

i get it. 100%, the fallout from having to stay home sucks. i feel for those who've lost their jobs. but i hope people can remember that by social distancing and closing things down its to limit the spread and those who die. and that its not forever. things will reopen and people will get their jobs back. its just a matter of waiting this things out a bit longer. 

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

The crappy thing is, it isn't just risking themselves, it's risking all of us.

Not just with the virus, but by removing the ability to seek medical care.

Again... I have a surgery I really need done. It's postponed until further notice... :-/ What about when my dad needs a stent again in his heart? What about my diabetic friends? what about the grandma that has a fall?

yeah. ive had to reschedule appointments myself, so i feel you there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

UK initially tried the 'herd immunity' approach.  That strategy didn't last very long but now their death counts are the highest in Europe right now.

Sweden is also trying a laissez-faire approach (though large crowds are still banned but restaurants/bars are open).  Their death count is eight times higher than neighboring Norway.  Will Sweden's GDP growth be higher than Norway's this month?  Maybe.  But maybe not.  Was that worth it?  That's up to their society.

In this country, I think 85% favor saving lives over saving GDP. based on recent polling  Obviously most Americans believe we are doing the right thing (albeit much, much later than we should have)

People forget that if you die or are in a hospital, you cannot participate in the economy.  The latter is especially true because our healthcare system sucks a fat one and medical debt held by the consumer would soar, so you're not buying anything.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

People forget that if you die or are in a hospital, you cannot participate in the economy.  The latter is especially true because our healthcare system sucks a fat one and medical debt held by the consumer would soar, so you're not buying anything.

God wait until we get the new health insurance premiums :-/

[Eskimo Joe]

MD folks filing for unemployment:

 

[Baltimorewx]

Good news guys! Hogan has deemed the Easter Bunny to be essential! So he’s forcing parents to go out and buy non essential Easter gifts! Great job Govna! 
im kinda just being facetious lol...maybe

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Good news guys! Hogan has deemed the Easter Bunny to be essential! So he’s forcing parents to go out and buy non essential Easter gifts! Great job Govna! 
im kinda just being facetious lol...maybe

A lot of volunteer fire departments are doing side details in the community like they do at Christmas with Santa Claus to try and cheer the kids up.  I think his order might be due to that.

EDIT:  these departments are pulling operational apparatus off the street to run calls, usually it's a brush truck or something with a light crew.

[ErinInTheSky]

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is what makes this situation so diabolical.  Your situation is frightening and i genuinely feel your pain.  My brother is a restaurant manager.  His life has been upended.  He is depressed, out of work and no idea if or when he will be able to provide for himself.  So extrapolate your issues to the macro level.  And extrapolate my brothers issues to the macro level.  And we can see the struggle that is taking shape is encompassed in these two examples.  Damn tough situation.

If someone said "we're open" do you think your brother's situation would improve much at all? Restaurant visits were already plummeting and that was before things went truly crazy with the pandemic.

 

I hate to say it but like... I don't think restaurants will be economically sustainable, even with the economy open, for a long time :-/ Regardless of what we do.

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Not sure.  But, for your reference, car accidents have about a 0.6% mortality rate and are not contagious.

And for your reference, that may be an even higher rate than COVID if you are of healthy working age in the US.  And since they're contagious, and not random, there are actually ways of reducing the risk of infection. 

[mappy]

Worth mentioning: Hogan said during his presser today that he is opening a registry for people who have recovered from Covid. The goal is to create a network for those who have recovered, they can share stories, and help others who are having problems. Also, by doing so (and its voluntary to join the registry) they can select people to help with clinical trials, through Johns Hopkins.

IMO, this is great. Not only do you get an idea of who has recovered, but they can help with research moving forward, whether its donating plasma, or helping with trials. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, supernovasky said:

If someone said "we're open" do you think your brother's situation would improve much at all? Restaurant visits were already plummeting and that was before things went truly crazy with the pandemic.

 

I hate to say it but like... I don't think restaurants will be economically sustainable, even with the economy open, for a long time :-/ Regardless of what we do.

IMO, you'll see a slow return to dine in, but restauratns should just adjust to take out for the time being.  Times like this make pizza, subs and sushi and Catonese food places king.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, you'll see a slow return to dine in, but restauratns should just adjust to take out for the time being.  Times like this make pizza, subs and sushi and Catonese food places king.

God I'm too nervous to even get groceries delivered and I wash them profusely.

 

I can't even imagine ordering takeout right now. I don't imagine that some will order takeout. But enough to keep it economically viable? Enough to sustain all, or even most restaurants?

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

People forget that if you die or are in a hospital, you cannot participate in the economy.  The latter is especially true because our healthcare system sucks a fat one and medical debt held by the consumer would soar, so you're not buying anything.

You may want to compare our mortality rates to other countries.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

God I'm too nervous to even get groceries delivered and I wash them profusely.

 

I can't even imagine ordering takeout right now. I don't imagine that some will order takeout. But enough to keep it economically viable? Enough to sustain all, or even most restaurants?

We got takeout from our favorite Catonese place last night.  I was waiting for the food and the owner told me they had a rough first week and almost had to lay off staff.  One of their staff suggested some changes to their business model, so they closed for a day, changed their operations up and now they're making as much money as they normally do.  I was really curious about this, and they told me that increased social media presence, a daily special to standardize food counts/ordering and partnering with the big delivery services (uber, eta l) are going to save them.  When I was waiting for the food their 3 phone lines were ringing consistently.  This flexibility shows that businesses can still thrive in an environment like this if they are open to adapting.

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

If someone said "we're open" do you think your brother's situation would improve much at all? Restaurant visits were already plummeting and that was before things went truly crazy with the pandemic.

 

I hate to say it but like... I don't think restaurants will be economically sustainable, even with the economy open, for a long time :-/ Regardless of what we do.

No chance.  Americans have long lost their appetite to cook for themselves.  

I do think you'll see the continued expansion of meal delivery for the next couple years though.

[Inverted_Trough]

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And for your reference, that may be an even higher rate than COVID if you are of healthy working age in the US.  And since they're contagious, and not random, there are actually ways of reducing the risk of infection. 

Yes, social distancing being one of them 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We got takeout from our favorite Catonese place last night.  I was waiting for the food and the owner told me they had a rough first week and almost had to lay off staff.  One of their staff suggested some changes to their business model, so they closed for a day, changed their operations up and now they're making as much money as they normally do.  I was really curious about this, and they told me that increased social media presence, a daily special to specialize food counts and partnering with the big delivery services are going to save them.  When I was waiting for the food their 3 phone lines were ringing consistently.  This flexibility shows that businesses can still thrive in an environment like this if they are open to adapting.

I don't doubt that some restaurants could survive with a takeout model in a pandemic, but I think that's a supply/demand problem, and I think overall demand would probably be a fraction of what it once was.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Yes, social distancing being one of them 

True.  As well as sensible hygiene practices and/ or use of PPE.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

God I'm too nervous to even get groceries delivered and I wash them profusely.

 

I can't even imagine ordering takeout right now. I don't imagine that some will order takeout. But enough to keep it economically viable? Enough to sustain all, or even most restaurants?

really? we have been trying to order out from local places couple times a week. delivery, or pick up. need to support these local places. not fast food chains, they are fine. its the ma/pa restaurants that need your business now more than ever